IST: Cubs vs. Pirates

[chibears55]

Have to say I'm disappointed in this start..
Yes I know it all can change for the better starting tomorow..

But

Not so much the 6-6 record, though I expected a couple more wins there..

The starting pitching that supposed to be one of the better one, has been mediocre so far the first 2+ times through the rotation..
No-one gone more then 6 innings and only I think 2 or 3 has gone 6..


The hitting has been jeckyll and Hyde so far..
Without looking I'm gonna guess 4 or 5 games of 4 or more and the others has been none or 1 scored..
Still failing for the most part to do the little things with RISP and less then 2 outs..

Their very frustrating to watch ..


I just hope we don't have to wait til July again to start seeing them play good consistent baseball

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[TC in Mississippi]

Have to say I'm disappointed in this start..
Yes I know it all can change for the better starting tomorow..

But

Not so much the 6-6 record, though I expected a couple more wins there..

The starting pitching that supposed to be one of the better one, has been mediocre so far the first 2+ times through the rotation..
No-one gone more then 6 innings and only I think 2 or 3 has gone 6..


The hitting has been jeckyll and Hyde so far..
Without looking I'm gonna guess 4 or 5 games of 4 or more and the others has been none or 1 scored..
Still failing for the most part to do the little things with RISP and less then 2 outs..

Their very frustrating to watch ..


I just hope we don't have to wait til July again to start seeing them play good consistent baseball

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4.29 ERA fro the starters isn't going to cut it. I don't really have long term worries, this is a better record than the pitching and hitting deserve, but I'm a little frustrated by the lack of a sense of urgency. They'll be fine, I'm just a little bummed.

 

[beckdawg]

I mean you always want to start well but just keep in mind that this team under maddon has always been a second half team. In 2015 they were 47-40(.540) in the first half and 50-25 in the second half(.667). 2016 they were 53-35(.602) in the first half and 50-23(.685) in the second. Last year they were 43-45(.489) in the first and 49-25(.662) in the second half. So, you're talking about 3 straight years where they won 2/3 of their games in the second half of the season. Obviously you'd prefer to be 2016 where you also win 60% in the first half and then coast but honestly if they win say 55% i'd be fine. Rizzo not being Rizzo(plus hurt) isn't helping matters. Once he comes around think they will look a bit better. I'm encouraged by guys like Baez and Russell looking a bit stronger.

If i had to make a guess I think this team is closer to 2015 than 2017 or 2016.

 

[A.C. Milan]

I'm not worried at all what makes me a little angry is that we are 6-6 and we played the Marlins and the Reds, two teams that will finish the season with triple digits L, we should beat them anyday anytime, you can lose some games with the Pirates, it's ok, but Reds and Marlins c'mon

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not worried at all what makes me a little angry is that we are 6-6 and we played the Marlins and the Reds, two teams that will finish the season with triple digits L, we should beat them anyday anytime, you can lose some games with the Pirates, it's ok, but Reds and Marlins c'mon

I mean i get it but a 60 win team still wins 1/3 of their games. It'd be nice had they at least won the series vs Miami but expecting a sweep isn't realistic.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Anybody see Clint Hurdle's comments about Baez and Contreras? Hurdle and guys like him would suck the fun right out of baseball, if they could.

 

[chibears55]

I mean you always want to start well but just keep in mind that this team under maddon has always been a second half team. In 2015 they were 47-40(.540) in the first half and 50-25 in the second half(.667). 2016 they were 53-35(.602) in the first half and 50-23(.685) in the second. Last year they were 43-45(.489) in the first and 49-25(.662) in the second half. So, you're talking about 3 straight years where they won 2/3 of their games in the second half of the season. Obviously you'd prefer to be 2016 where you also win 60% in the first half and then coast but honestly if they win say 55% i'd be fine. Rizzo not being Rizzo(plus hurt) isn't helping matters. Once he comes around think they will look a bit better. I'm encouraged by guys like Baez and Russell looking a bit stronger.

If i had to make a guess I think this team is closer to 2015 than 2017 or 2016.

My disappointment isnt with the record itself...
More with the way their playing

I get slow starts and all but were seeing guys still struggling somewhat with the bat and inconsistency in games where it a bunch of runs or nothing..

Starting pitching has basically been blah overall..

Like i said i get it only been 12 games and everything can start for the better tomorrow and they can go 9-3 over the next 12..

Just thought after seeing the schedule of Marlins Reds Brewers Pirates and Braves for first 16, that they would jump out of the gate fast with the SP and hitters..
Didnt expect .500 and looking mediocre with both starting pitching and hitting..
The bullpen been the best of the three and i also hope they dont get worn down early again because the SP cant go 6 or more consistently..

Hopefully they have a good weekend and come monday they get Rizzo back and they have a nice big series win against the Cardinals and start moving forward

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[chibears55]

Anybody see Clint Hurdle's comments about Baez and Contreras? Hurdle and guys like him would suck the fun right out of baseball, if they could.

Hurdle needs to worry about his own guys and what they do, i mean Cervelli no angel himself..

Seriously though , all the stuff these players do nowadays he singles out Baez bat flip and Contreras pointing as being disrespectful to the game....lol



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[Diehardfan]

6-6 with 150 to go. Some people seem to think that is a problem.

Hypothetical......say the Cubs start out going 18-2, then get to about 50-12 and then 65-16. Half way through and the regular season is over and there's still 81 games and 3 months of baseball to schlep through. Sure, they would be well rested but that's 3 months of not playing a single meaningful game. How ready do you think they'd be for post season baseball? Ok, it's an exaggerated scenario to show a point. My point is this....sometimes slow starts can be beneficial. 162 games is the most grueling reg season in pro sports and as long as your team is in the hunt at game 110-120...they're good to go. I'd much rather have my team still battling at game 150 than yawning their way into the playoffs with a 20 game lead.

If somewhere down the line they get to around 75-75....then you got a problem. Not 6-6.

 

[Diehardfan]

Anybody see Clint Hurdle's comments about Baez and Contreras? Hurdle and guys like him would suck the fun right out of baseball, if they could.

Old school, I guess. But it's funny how guys that played MLB and never did much of anything over an entire career can mouth off about today's players using the guise of "respecting the game".

Maybe he didn't notice that showmanship is all over the league these days....in all sports.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Old school, I guess. But it's funny how guys that played MLB and never did much of anything over an entire career can mouth off about today's players using the guise of "respecting the game".

Maybe he didn't notice that showmanship is all over the league these days....in all sports.

Yes. While I love his Productive At Bats he came up with when he was the hitting instructor with the Rangers, he's basically just an old man who said "get off my lawn!"

 

[beckdawg]

Heyward's batted ball profile is weird right now. Not like... bad weird... more like I have no idea what to make of it weird. The short version is he's hitting for the best hard contact he has other than 2010 and his current soft contact would be top 3. That's a very good thing and why I was very encouraged in previous comments on him. What makes the data weird is the rest of the stuff. Heyward has always been a ground ball guy. On his career he's at 49.1% ground ball rate. The highest his flyball rate has ever been was 36.7%. This year? It's at 43.8%.

Why does that matter? Well for one thing that explains his horrible BABIP. Flyballs in general have terrible BABIP because they are just easier to field. It's why flyball pitchers work in stadiums with bigger outfields. If the OF can get to a ball they almost always make the play. That's not to say hitting flyballs is "bad." As an example, Bryant's career flyball rate is 44.0%. Based on the numbers what appears to be happening is he's adding more loft to his swing. The good bit of that is what he has done appears to have increased his exit velocity. The bad bit is that his line drive rate is way down(basically half of career norm) and his infield fly rate is almost double. You could probably safely suggest that he isn't currently squaring balls up all that well. But I will say this. 2017 Heyward may have been advertised as having a "new swing" but in terms of outcomes he looked like the same guy he has always been. Thus far 2018 Heyward looks like something different statistically anyways.

The reason this becomes interesting to me is if you effectively look at the change in career numbers for his infield fly vs line drive rate, they basically equal each other. In other words, if his infield fly rate goes back down to career norms you could probably suggest his line drive rate will too. And in 2010 when he had the same sort of hard hit rate that he has now he had 18 HRs and that was with a flyball rate of 27.2%. His 2018 flyball rate is over 50% more than 2010. Obviously there's a giant IF there in that if he starts squaring more balls up you could be looking at a very different hitter than you have come to expect out of Heyward.

Like I said, I'm not entirely sure what to make of it. The fan aspect of me wants to get super hyped because if that line drive rate goes up and presumably his HR/FB rate as well matches what appears to be higher exit velocity thus far you're talking about an actual power hitting Jason Heyward with gold glove defense. On the other hand, the cautious side would suggest we hoped for more some what in 2016 vs 2015 and definitely in 2017 vs 2016.

Either way, I just thought I'd point this out. Maybe those of you who are better with swing mechanics than I can take a look if you notice anything obviously different that would cause more fly balls here or if this is just instead a bad batch of small data.

 

[CSF77]

Heyward's batted ball profile is weird right now. Not like... bad weird... more like I have no idea what to make of it weird. The short version is he's hitting for the best hard contact he has other than 2010 and his current soft contact would be top 3. That's a very good thing and why I was very encouraged in previous comments on him. What makes the data weird is the rest of the stuff. Heyward has always been a ground ball guy. On his career he's at 49.1% ground ball rate. The highest his flyball rate has ever been was 36.7%. This year? It's at 43.8%.

Why does that matter? Well for one thing that explains his horrible BABIP. Flyballs in general have terrible BABIP because they are just easier to field. It's why flyball pitchers work in stadiums with bigger outfields. If the OF can get to a ball they almost always make the play. That's not to say hitting flyballs is "bad." As an example, Bryant's career flyball rate is 44.0%. Based on the numbers what appears to be happening is he's adding more loft to his swing. The good bit of that is what he has done appears to have increased his exit velocity. The bad bit is that his line drive rate is way down(basically half of career norm) and his infield fly rate is almost double. You could probably safely suggest that he isn't currently squaring balls up all that well. But I will say this. 2017 Heyward may have been advertised as having a "new swing" but in terms of outcomes he looked like the same guy he has always been. Thus far 2018 Heyward looks like something different statistically anyways.

The reason this becomes interesting to me is if you effectively look at the change in career numbers for his infield fly vs line drive rate, they basically equal each other. In other words, if his infield fly rate goes back down to career norms you could probably suggest his line drive rate will too. And in 2010 when he had the same sort of hard hit rate that he has now he had 18 HRs and that was with a flyball rate of 27.2%. His 2018 flyball rate is over 50% more than 2010. Obviously there's a giant IF there in that if he starts squaring more balls up you could be looking at a very different hitter than you have come to expect out of Heyward.

Like I said, I'm not entirely sure what to make of it. The fan aspect of me wants to get super hyped because if that line drive rate goes up and presumably his HR/FB rate as well matches what appears to be higher exit velocity thus far you're talking about an actual power hitting Jason Heyward with gold glove defense. On the other hand, the cautious side would suggest we hoped for more some what in 2016 vs 2015 and definitely in 2017 vs 2016.

Either way, I just thought I'd point this out. Maybe those of you who are better with swing mechanics than I can take a look if you notice anything obviously different that would cause more fly balls here or if this is just instead a bad batch of small data.

ISO:
.111 He is only beating Russell ATM. What he is doing means little if the results are not there. Zobrist has a .114 but has a BA of .314 driving it vs a .222.

So I get where you are coming from.
ISO: .111
BB%: 9.5%
SO%: 11.9%
BABIP: .226

So he is hitting it right at them. Which accounts of 80% of his AB's. Thus a .222 BA.

Honestly he maybe hitting it at a different angle but the result is the same. Maybe he needs to work on using the whole field. Going the other way would be a nice change.

I've seen players go on tears buy starting out going oppi. After the D/pitcher start to respect that then it opens up the pull game. But being locked into one thing causes the shift.

 

[anotheridiot]

there are positives now of some players looking opposite field. Even one of Javy's home runs was right of center. Schwarber hit the third base bag yesterday, Contrares went to right. Its going to take more of that to break these shifts, but the players doing that will eventually be getting those hits because they are not hitting it right to a defender shifted to his tendencies.

 

[brett05]

Anyone have statcast details on Kyle's homer yesterday?

 

[chibears55]

Anyone have statcast details on Kyle's homer yesterday?

It made it over the wall..lol

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[beckdawg]

Anyone have statcast details on Kyle's homer yesterday?

What specifically are you looking for? Exit Velo? Baseball Savant is where you can get pretty much all the data you'd want but it's a bit cryptic to find.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/stat...aunch_speed&sort_order=desc&min_abs=0#results

^ link will bring you to just Schwarber's results for 2018. If you click his name it will show you all the at bats.

As for his homer, the exit velo was 108.6 and it went 404 feet with a 22.1620 launch angle.