IST: Cubs vs. Reds

[TC in Mississippi]

Soler and Baez aren't going anywhere for the same reasons they didn't go anywhere in the offseason, now only magnified after the Schwarber injury. As for getting a TOR at the deadline, I think those conversations are going to begin with Willson Contreras, which is probably a conversation the Cubs want no part of. They have a plethora of position blocks and odd fits (Vogelbach, McKinney, Candelario, etc.) that could get cobbled together for a bullpen arm or mid-rotation starter.

I think they shopped Soler fairly aggressively in the offseason without any takers. I assumed they would try again at the deadline but that isn't going to happen now. I also don't think Contreras is going anywhere.

 

[SilenceS]

I think they shopped Soler fairly aggressively in the offseason without any takers. I assumed they would try again at the deadline but that isn't going to happen now. I also don't think Contreras is going anywhere.

At this point, you have to assume Schwarber is done as a catcher for the foreseeable future. Cubs aren't deep at catcher so Contras is covered to the Cubs. I still believe Soler is the trade chip because he never developed the defense the Cubs thought he would have in the majors. Baez I believe is Maddons. Maddon loves him and it is why the Cubs were not as eager to trade him. I mean if the price is right if you pull the trigger, but I think Maddon is what stops Theo for trading Baez at this point. I am a Baez fan boy, but I think Maddon is as well.

 

[beckdawg]

I think it's more a question of return in trade for Soler/Baez. I get the argument some will make about not trading one away because of Schwarber getting hurt but the cubs are also averaging close to 7 runs a game and to be honest that's without Soler and Schwarber providing a ton thus far and obviously Baez is not back yet. With that being said, they are only giving up like 2.5 runs a game and other than the one minor gaff in AZ the bullpen has been stellar. So, there's not really any pressing need yet.

I think if the opportunity for them to improve their long term chances comes up they wouldn't hesitate to move either. For example, if you're convinced Jose Fernandez is both back to what he was pre-injury and healthy at roughly 24 he'd be that type of player. Contrast that with someone like Tyson Ross and I'm just not sure the cubs are going to want to give up a ton to get him especially with how good Hendricks and Hammel have faired thus far. But honestly that's the situation you want to put yourself in because you can pick and choose rather than having to make a move.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

I think it's more a question of return in trade for Soler/Baez. I get the argument some will make about not trading one away because of Schwarber getting hurt but the cubs are also averaging close to 7 runs a game and to be honest that's without Soler and Schwarber providing a ton thus far and obviously Baez is not back yet. With that being said, they are only giving up like 2.5 runs a game and other than the one minor gaff in AZ the bullpen has been stellar. So, there's not really any pressing need yet.

I think if the opportunity for them to improve their long term chances comes up they wouldn't hesitate to move either. For example, if you're convinced Jose Fernandez is both back to what he was pre-injury and healthy at roughly 24 he'd be that type of player. Contrast that with someone like Tyson Ross and I'm just not sure the cubs are going to want to give up a ton to get him especially with how good Hendricks and Hammel have faired thus far. But honestly that's the situation you want to put yourself in because you can pick and choose rather than having to make a move.

No I don't see a Tyson Ross type scenario either. I've always felt that Sonny Gray was their guy and I saw an interesting piece recently that compared Gray to Arrieta and that they had basically the same delivery and almost identical stuff. He would seem to be both the kind of guy to boost you to a series and give you some serious insurance against losing Arrieta after next year. The problem is that if they stay in it until the deadline both Boston and the Dodgers would seemingly have more to offer.

Maybe in the end they don't need pitching at all this season. On paper they shouldn't but I look at that Mets staff and wonder how anyone gets by them in the playoffs. Of course they'll have to get there first. It's a long season and I'm getting way ahead of myself. I'm going to try not to do that so much.

 

[beckdawg]

No I don't see a Tyson Ross type scenario either. I've always felt that Sonny Gray was their guy and I saw an interesting piece recently that compared Gray to Arrieta and that they had basically the same delivery and almost identical stuff. He would seem to be both the kind of guy to boost you to a series and give you some serious insurance against losing Arrieta after next year. The problem is that if they stay in it until the deadline both Boston and the Dodgers would seemingly have more to offer.

Maybe in the end they don't need pitching at all this season. On paper they shouldn't but I look at that Mets staff and wonder how anyone gets by them in the playoffs. Of course they'll have to get there first. It's a long season and I'm getting way ahead of myself. I'm going to try not to do that so much.

Well Hendricks out pitched Grienke the other day. Last season he beat Zimmermann multiple times head to head. I get the "on paper" thought and all but baseball rarely works to plans. Maddux was one of the all time greats and if there's anything against him it was he was only so-so in the playoff. I think Kershaw is still winless in the playoffs if I'm not mistaken. What I like about this team is that even on nights where you go up against a really tough arm they often will make him battle so hard that by the 5th inning he's nearing his pitch limit. And in that case it's the bullpen you hope to make your living off of.

As for others having more to offer, maybe. But the thing to remember is that if the cubs are willing to move Soler and Baez they aren't just any prospect. They are MLB ready and while others have similar level of talent, being that ready makes a difference. I'd also question how trade happy the dodgers will be especially for pitching. You've obviously got Kershaw at the top of that rotation. Julio Urias might be ready by midseason. Kenta Maeda probably isn't destined to be a TOR pitcher but he projects to be a decent MOR starter and they've got him til 2023. Alex Wood is a bit of a question mark but has potential. Jose De Leon probably wont see the majors until maybe a Sept. call up but he's also a top 25 pitcher. You've then got Grant Holmes(#60) and Frankie Montas(#93) hanging around too. So, I'm just not really that sure the "obvious" people for trades will be there.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/cubs-follow-tanker-truck-on-wide-open-road-toward-2016-playoffs/

I truly hate Gordon Wittenmeyer. One look at the Reds organization will tell you they're doing the right thing but as he did with the Cubs during their rebuild he questions it. With the right moves the Reds, along with the Braves and Brewers ( Philly might take a while longer) are going to be young teams with wide open windows. Looking at the Reds Monday night you can see this is not a team devoid of talent. There's some young pitching and some veteran hitting but, they're probably a 75 win team if they trade no one, my bet is 70 wins after they deal some guys. What would Wittenmeyer have proposed for them not to rebuild and instead "go for it" thus year? Let's say they had decided to do that and signed someone like Cespedes and maybe resigned Cueto. What does that do? Make them an 81 win team with the narrowest of windows? We get it Gordon, you don't like rebuilds, now go away. I know better than to read this guy so I only blame myself.

 

[fatbeard]

No I don't see a Tyson Ross type scenario either. I've always felt that Sonny Gray was their guy and I saw an interesting piece recently that compared Gray to Arrieta and that they had basically the same delivery and almost identical stuff. He would seem to be both the kind of guy to boost you to a series and give you some serious insurance against losing Arrieta after next year. The problem is that if they stay in it until the deadline both Boston and the Dodgers would seemingly have more to offer.

Maybe in the end they don't need pitching at all this season. On paper they shouldn't but I look at that Mets staff and wonder how anyone gets by them in the playoffs. Of course they'll have to get there first. It's a long season and I'm getting way ahead of myself. I'm going to try not to do that so much.

The way they get by the Mets staff is simply by mitigating variance by getting to the playoffs regularly. The Mets staff got unsustainably hot in the NLCS last year (just as the Cubs hit an unsustainable number of HRs against the Cardinals). Epstein explained in an interview several days ago that the Mets staff beat the Cubs by pitching them backwards: Offspeed stuff early in the count on the edges to get ahead, then finishing with fastballs. That approach is only sustainable with a nigh-superhuman level of control, otherwise your pitchers are falling behind early and then getting blasted when they're forced to throw FBs over the plate to recover. The Mets managed to pull it off in the small sample size of the NLCS, but were unable to replicate it against the Royals. In some sense, the "problem" of getting by the Mets staff is mitigated by regression to the mean.

 

[Parade_Rain]

http://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/cubs-follow-tanker-truck-on-wide-open-road-toward-2016-playoffs/

I truly hate Gordon Wittenmeyer. One look at the Reds organization will tell you they're doing the right thing but as he did with the Cubs during their rebuild he questions it. With the right moves the Reds, along with the Braves and Brewers ( Philly might take a while longer) are going to be young teams with wide open windows. Looking at the Reds Monday night you can see this is not a team devoid of talent. There's some young pitching and some veteran hitting but, they're probably a 75 win team if they trade no one, my bet is 70 wins after they deal some guys. What would Wittenmeyer have proposed for them not to rebuild and instead "go for it" thus year? Let's say they had decided to do that and signed someone like Cespedes and maybe resigned Cueto. What does that do? Make them an 81 win team with the narrowest of windows? We get it Gordon, you don't like rebuilds, now go away. I know better than to read this guy so I only blame myself.

It's never the "right thing" unless it actually works. It reads as if Brett05 helped Wittenmeyer write that article.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

It's never the "right thing" unless it actually works.

Absolutely true.

It reads as if Brett05 helped Wittenmeyer write that article.

I thought the same thing :thinking: (sorry Brett)

Seriously though what bothered me here is that in the Cubs case it did work and Wittenmeyer almost seems pissed off that he was wrong and he's written variations on this column since that outcome seemed to be the case. Let it go man. There are plenty of things to write about with the Cubs NOW than to write the column you were writing from 2012-2015 about the Cubs now using other teams as surrogates because you were wrong the first time. Just rubs me the wrong way.

 

[Bear Pride]

Let's take a look at some weather for tonight's game. Hopefully we can get a good game out of Lack. The winds blowing in at 9mph:

Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs – 7:05 CDT - Wrigley Field Air Density Index: 74
Wind: ENE 9 mph		Time:	4 pm	5 pm	6 pm	7 pm	8 pm	9 pm	10 pm	11 pm	12 am
Temp:	51°	49°	48°	46°	45°	45°	45°	44°	44°
Humidity:	48%	56%	57%	60%	63%	63%	63%	67%	68%
Feels like:	51°	49°	48°	42°	40°	40°	40°	40°	40°
Condition:	Mostly Cloudy	Mostly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Partly Cloudy	Clear	Clear
Precip%:	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	1%
Wind:	ENE 13 mph	ENE 11 mph	ENE 11 mph	ENE 9 mph	ENE 9 mph	ENE 9 mph	E 9 mph	ESE 8 mph	SE 8 mph

 

[SilenceS]

 

[Bear Pride]

For some reason I can't see that image in my browser. :shrug: So I postedthis in case anyone else has same issue.

Cubs
Lineup 4/13
8:05 EST
CIN:Alfredo Simon(R) (0-0, 1.80)
CHC:John Lackey(R) (1-0, 9.00)
LINE: CHC -199 O/U: 8



Dexter Fowler(S) CF
Jason Heyward(L) RF
Ben Zobrist(S) 2B
Anthony Rizzo(L) 1B
Kris Bryant(R) 3B
Miguel Montero(L) C
Jorge Soler(R) LF
Addison Russell(R) SS
John Lackey(R) P

 

[A.C. Milan]

leadoff double.. **** it

 

[chibears55]

Here we go, Lackey throwing batting practice again

So far he been worse then Edwin Jackson

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

 

[A.C. Milan]

it could have been worse, just one run.. ok we take that with bases loaded and no outs

 

[Bear Pride]

Here we go, Lackey throwing batting practice again

So far he been worse then Edwin Jackson

Sent from my LG-V495 using Tapatalk

Nobody's worse than Jackson!

 

[Bear Pride]

Man, that's two great at bats by Zobrist and Rizzo. Ben showed what he brings to the table on that 1st at bat, imo.

 

[A.C. Milan]

33 pitches and still only 1 out. RBI for Kris

 

[Bear Pride]

Cubs pitch watch update:

1 out in the 1st - 33 pitches

 

[A.C. Milan]

2-1 and still loaded with 1 out