IST: Cubs vs Reds

[Mr. Cub]

Blowing the game today was bad. What a fucking sweep. God damn cellar team.

 

[TL1961]

Stop your worrying.

We've still got that big ol' switch we can flip whenever we want.

Or so I am told.

 

[chibears55]

Stop your worrying.

We've still got that big ol' switch we can flip whenever we want.

Or so I am told.

Yep..
2nd half
Their gonna go 50 and 30 because all of a sudden all the SP are gonna start going deeper into games and win..

The hitters are all just gonna click and start hitting with RISP, strikeout less, and noone gonna be in a slump anymore...

Hell Maddon even gonna manage the bullpen better ...


They did it last year, why cant they do it again this year ...right

Thursday we were told they were on pace to win 95 games...

So that means we should expect them to go 53 and 34 the rest of the way

Easy [emoji6]

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[Diehardfan]

It's not real hard concept even for the boneheads on this site....if you hate them so much, stop watching them.

 

[Spunky Porkstacker]

It's not real hard concept even for the boneheads on this site....if you hate them so much, stop watching them.

Is funny, surprised there isn't more criticism of Bryant's shoulder issue.

 

[Diehardfan]

Is funny, surprised there isn't more criticism of Bryant's shoulder issue.

I thought Maddon got blamed for that too. I mean he gets blamed for losses when the Cubs don't score....damn him. Any good manager should know how to win games with no runs. The Cubs need to fire him and find a guy like Riggleman or Matheny would had great weekends. Those are "real" managers...who wants a guy who wins every year, like Maddon.

 

[beckdawg]

You all are depressing. They are 2 games back of MIL for the best record in the NL and clearly aren't playing their best. Relax. I'm not going to have the debate on whether or not Darvish is "broken" but they paid him to be an ace and thus far he hasn't been. He's missed 7 starts and of the 8 he's made like 3 of those were above average. You take the ace off any contending team that much and their record is going to suffer. Look at LA with Kershaw on the shelf. That also had the double wammy of moving Monty to the rotation which hurts the bullpen. Between that injury, Butler getting hurt, and Edwards and Morrow on the DL, you have half of the opening day bullpen replaced with guys from AAA. If everyone is healthy Farrell isn't getting lit up saturday or giving up the HR to fowler in extras vs STL. Rosario isn't giving up the granny thursday that crushed Hendricks' ERA.

The cubs have a few issues. But I'm not seeing anything statistically that isn't something you can overcome. I mean for crying out loud last years team that went to the NLCS was 2 games under .500 with an even run diff in the first half. They are 9 games over .500 and +81 run diff right now. In other words, even with those issues this team is better than last years team. In particular, the hitting is more evenly distributed. No one is carrying the team sadly but only La Stella and the backup C are under 100 wRC+. And in terms of pitching, before injuries racked up the bullpen was great.

This is a topic for another day but I'm curious how much of the pitching issues are related to Contreras' framing. Chatwood has other issues obviously but all 4 of the other guys have higher than career norm walk rates as does Cishek, Wilson and several other relievers. Regardless, I think Darvish eventually returns to form and I think Q eventually will too. That gives you a pretty solid 1-4. Chatwood would be surprisingly good if his walk rate were the ~4 per 9 his career norm is. But even if he's garbage the rest of the way, Monty is there and presumably you'll see them eye relievers in july.

IDK maybe i'm just a glass half full kinda guy but I'd much rather be in this position than the 2017 cubs.

 

[CSF77]

You all are depressing. They are 2 games back of MIL for the best record in the NL and clearly aren't playing their best. Relax. I'm not going to have the debate on whether or not Darvish is "broken" but they paid him to be an ace and thus far he hasn't been. He's missed 7 starts and of the 8 he's made like 3 of those were above average. You take the ace off any contending team that much and their record is going to suffer. Look at LA with Kershaw on the shelf. That also had the double wammy of moving Monty to the rotation which hurts the bullpen. Between that injury, Butler getting hurt, and Edwards and Morrow on the DL, you have half of the opening day bullpen replaced with guys from AAA. If everyone is healthy Farrell isn't getting lit up saturday or giving up the HR to fowler in extras vs STL. Rosario isn't giving up the granny thursday that crushed Hendricks' ERA.

The cubs have a few issues. But I'm not seeing anything statistically that isn't something you can overcome. I mean for crying out loud last years team that went to the NLCS was 2 games under .500 with an even run diff in the first half. They are 9 games over .500 and +81 run diff right now. In other words, even with those issues this team is better than last years team. In particular, the hitting is more evenly distributed. No one is carrying the team sadly but only La Stella and the backup C are under 100 wRC+. And in terms of pitching, before injuries racked up the bullpen was great.

This is a topic for another day but I'm curious how much of the pitching issues are related to Contreras' framing. Chatwood has other issues obviously but all 4 of the other guys have higher than career norm walk rates as does Cishek, Wilson and several other relievers. Regardless, I think Darvish eventually returns to form and I think Q eventually will too. That gives you a pretty solid 1-4. Chatwood would be surprisingly good if his walk rate were the ~4 per 9 his career norm is. But even if he's garbage the rest of the way, Monty is there and presumably you'll see them eye relievers in july.

IDK maybe i'm just a glass half full kinda guy but I'd much rather be in this position than the 2017 cubs.

I was noticing the 3rd time through has been the constant issue this series. They scored runs but Joe needs to start yanking earlier.

But imo if they need to invest it is into MR. They have been tossing filler out there sense Butler went down and promoted Montgomery. At that Montgomery was ineffective as a MR guy. Didn’t take off until starting.

So I see that as a core issue. Duesing is not effective like last year. They could demote walk machine and cross your fingers.


But over all they lost in the mid innings and there was no shut off guy. Morrow will get back but they need to address the mid inning soon.

 

[beckdawg]

I was noticing the 3rd time through has been the constant issue this series. They scored runs but Joe needs to start yanking earlier.

But imo if they need to invest it is into MR. They have been tossing filler out there sense Butler went down and promoted Montgomery. At that Montgomery was ineffective as a MR guy. Didn’t take off until starting.

So I see that as a core issue. Duesing is not effective like last year. They could demote walk machine and cross your fingers.


But over all they lost in the mid innings and there was no shut off guy. Morrow will get back but they need to address the mid inning soon.

I think it depends really. Like assuming everyone is healthy you don't need a middle reliever in the playoffs. Between Morrow, Edwards, Cishek Strop and I guess wilson/monty they have more than enough arms for the playoffs. What they may need is someone to get them to october as you suggest. That's sort of an interesting buying proposition because you need someone good enough to trade for but you don't really need a top of the line closer type.

 

[Adipost]

You all are depressing. They are 2 games back of MIL for the best record in the NL and clearly aren't playing their best. Relax. I'm not going to have the debate on whether or not Darvish is "broken" but they paid him to be an ace and thus far he hasn't been. He's missed 7 starts and of the 8 he's made like 3 of those were above average. You take the ace off any contending team that much and their record is going to suffer. Look at LA with Kershaw on the shelf. That also had the double wammy of moving Monty to the rotation which hurts the bullpen. Between that injury, Butler getting hurt, and Edwards and Morrow on the DL, you have half of the opening day bullpen replaced with guys from AAA. If everyone is healthy Farrell isn't getting lit up saturday or giving up the HR to fowler in extras vs STL. Rosario isn't giving up the granny thursday that crushed Hendricks' ERA.

The cubs have a few issues. But I'm not seeing anything statistically that isn't something you can overcome. I mean for crying out loud last years team that went to the NLCS was 2 games under .500 with an even run diff in the first half. They are 9 games over .500 and +81 run diff right now. In other words, even with those issues this team is better than last years team. In particular, the hitting is more evenly distributed. No one is carrying the team sadly but only La Stella and the backup C are under 100 wRC+. And in terms of pitching, before injuries racked up the bullpen was great.

This is a topic for another day but I'm curious how much of the pitching issues are related to Contreras' framing. Chatwood has other issues obviously but all 4 of the other guys have higher than career norm walk rates as does Cishek, Wilson and several other relievers. Regardless, I think Darvish eventually returns to form and I think Q eventually will too. That gives you a pretty solid 1-4. Chatwood would be surprisingly good if his walk rate were the ~4 per 9 his career norm is. But even if he's garbage the rest of the way, Monty is there and presumably you'll see them eye relievers in july.

IDK maybe i'm just a glass half full kinda guy but I'd much rather be in this position than the 2017 cubs.

LOL What did you expect after the Cubs just got swept? People can’t voice their displeasure over a bad series? If people are still crying after the Cubs rattle off 7 wins in the next 10 games, then you may have a point. But they just lost 4 in a row to a bad team, should we be discussing the playoff rotation?

 

[CSF77]

I think it depends really. Like assuming everyone is healthy you don't need a middle reliever in the playoffs. Between Morrow, Edwards, Cishek Strop and I guess wilson/monty they have more than enough arms for the playoffs. What they may need is someone to get them to october as you suggest. That's sort of an interesting buying proposition because you need someone good enough to trade for but you don't really need a top of the line closer type.

I’ve always preferred Hand. But there has to be some options upwelling with the teams starting to decide their fate.

Another guy to look at is Cole Hammels. Would be more of a dine and dash thing but it opens up a rotation spot controversy. Think he is paid 20 mil with 3.5 mil paid from Phi. So The prorated must be around 7 mil added to payroll.

Now if you look at it it would be Lester/Hammels/Yu/Q/Hendricks. That pushes Montgomery and Chatwood into MR guys.

Just 1 take but absorbing the whole contract in theory cost maybe Underwood.

 

[chibears55]

You all are depressing. They are 2 games back of MIL for the best record in the NL and clearly aren't playing their best. Relax. I'm not going to have the debate on whether or not Darvish is "broken" but they paid him to be an ace and thus far he hasn't been. He's missed 7 starts and of the 8 he's made like 3 of those were above average. You take the ace off any contending team that much and their record is going to suffer. Look at LA with Kershaw on the shelf. That also had the double wammy of moving Monty to the rotation which hurts the bullpen. Between that injury, Butler getting hurt, and Edwards and Morrow on the DL, you have half of the opening day bullpen replaced with guys from AAA. If everyone is healthy Farrell isn't getting lit up saturday or giving up the HR to fowler in extras vs STL. Rosario isn't giving up the granny thursday that crushed Hendricks' ERA.

The cubs have a few issues. But I'm not seeing anything statistically that isn't something you can overcome. I mean for crying out loud last years team that went to the NLCS was 2 games under .500 with an even run diff in the first half. They are 9 games over .500 and +81 run diff right now. In other words, even with those issues this team is better than last years team. In particular, the hitting is more evenly distributed. No one is carrying the team sadly but only La Stella and the backup C are under 100 wRC+. And in terms of pitching, before injuries racked up the bullpen was great.

This is a topic for another day but I'm curious how much of the pitching issues are related to Contreras' framing. Chatwood has other issues obviously but all 4 of the other guys have higher than career norm walk rates as does Cishek, Wilson and several other relievers. Regardless, I think Darvish eventually returns to form and I think Q eventually will too. That gives you a pretty solid 1-4. Chatwood would be surprisingly good if his walk rate were the ~4 per 9 his career norm is. But even if he's garbage the rest of the way, Monty is there and presumably you'll see them eye relievers in july.

IDK maybe i'm just a glass half full kinda guy but I'd much rather be in this position than the 2017 cubs.

You point out all the issues their having..
Guys not hitting
Pitchers not pitching
Injuries
Etc
Etc

You think that at some point their just gonna flip a switch and everything gonna be better and their gonna win 53 more games to end the season ..
Sure there may be improvement, but to expect them to go ape again like last year is high expectation for a team that that been basically playing 500 ball all year.

Maybe im the fool and im wrong but i just dont feel it with this team right now ..
I just dont see this group this year just all of a sudden start clicking and winning 50+ games to finish the year..

I dont think the Brewers are going away this year.. their an improved team and i think theyll add that SP to help them even more...

Am i giving up... no
But im not gonna sit here and pretend that all is good and were just gonna see them do what they did last year because that the expectation..

I need to see some consistencies from them first..
they had one good stretch all year, need more

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[Spunky Porkstacker]

You point out all the issues their having..
Guys not hitting
Pitchers not pitching
Injuries
Etc
Etc

You think that at some point their just gonna flip a switch and everything gonna be better and their gonna win 53 more games to end the season ..
Sure there may be improvement, but to expect them to go ape again like last year is high expectation for a team that that been basically playing 500 ball all year.

Maybe im the fool and im wrong but i just dont feel it with this team right now ..
I just dont see this group this year just all of a sudden start clicking and winning 50+ games to finish the year..

I dont think the Brewers are going away this year.. their an improved team and i think theyll add that SP to help them even more...

Am i giving up... no
But im not gonna sit here and pretend that all is good and were just gonna see them do what they did last year because that the expectation..

I need to see some consistencies from them first..
they had one good stretch all year, need more

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Just like a couple years ago when the Cubs fell behind in the PO series vs the Cardinals. You declared it over and you'll have more time to watch the Bears now. LOL, Cubs won that series, your pessimism precedes you.

You talk like there is no chance they can't get it together, with the various underperformances this season there are bright spots, J Hey for one. They're still in contention despite the various levels of fail so far. SMH, it's a long season.

 

[chibears55]

Just like a couple years ago when the Cubs fell behind in the PO series vs the Cardinals. You declared it over and you'll have more time to watch the Bears now. LOL, Cubs won that series, your pessimism precedes you.

You talk like there is no chance they can't get it together, with the various underperformances this season there are bright spots, J Hey for one. They're still in contention despite the various levels of fail so far. SMH, it's a long season.

Didn't say there was no chance..

Just dont think it just gonna be a matter of flipping the switch like some on here think it all it gonna take to go off and win 50+ games in the 2nd half just because they were able to do that last year...

There alot of questions that needs to be addressed..

SP is shaky and we have no clue what to expect from Darvish..

Were in june and still have hitters trying to figure it out and some still trying to find some consistency ..


Be great and fun if they all click again

We'll see



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[SilenceS]

Baseball 60 percent of the time you win everytime


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[anotheridiot]

I dont know what is wrong, but eventually you gotta look at how guys are tossed all around in the lineup. You have guys that earn the leadoff spot and they are taken out for no real reason other than an ofer or the spot is used to jump start a hitter. How many ofers did Fowler have in his great leadoff career here? Never really got questioned. Now you have a guy in Almora, who people seem to forget was Theo's very first pick for this team, and he bounces around from leadoff to fifth, sixth, seventh so his .320/360 and only 15 walks and 39k's are either fudged numbers since the great manager just constantly puts him in the place in the lineup that feed those numbers. You got a 280/383 guy in bryant who is considered slumping. I dont remember him hitting .350 and lost 70 points on his average. These guys just clearly do not understand that going to the opposite field is going to ease the shifts and then they can start mashing the ball like they want to again, but you need to keep that other team honest by consistently hitting the opposite way.

 

[chibears55]

Baseball 60 percent of the time you win everytime


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When the cubs start winning at a 60% clip , let us know...
.560 for the year now
And
.500 over the last 20
.566 over the last 30

They need to go 55 and 32 the rest of the season to finish at .598

So cubs are a long shot to finish season at .600 unless they go crazy again in 2nd half.



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[beckdawg]

LOL What did you expect after the Cubs just got swept? People can’t voice their displeasure over a bad series? If people are still crying after the Cubs rattle off 7 wins in the next 10 games, then you may have a point. But they just lost 4 in a row to a bad team, should we be discussing the playoff rotation?

I expect people not to complain after every loss. It's one thing to be disappointed. It's another to talk like the team is a bunch of losers who can't make the playoffs. You don't post here as often as some so if your take is it is just disappointment ok. I'll concede the point. But I've literally been through this the past 3 years with people on here. Last year when they were 43-45 IIRC before the all-star break everyone assumed they weren't making the playoffs. They went to the NLCS. In 2016 they slumped hard before the all star break. I'll be generous here and say people didn't think they were the best team in baseball. It was probably worse than that but either way the team won the world series. In 2015 people were disgruntled at the start of the season. There weren't as many expectation that year but again the team made the NLCS.

Why I get annoyed is the team isn't even bad this year. Like last year made more sense for people to be disappointed. And people today know how that turned out. I would expect people to give them the benefit of doubt at this point.

 

[beckdawg]

You think that at some point their just gonna flip a switch and everything gonna be better and their gonna win 53 more games to end the season ..

Yes. That's exactly what I expect. I mean look how long was I telling you that Heyward was a better player than he was showing. It was at least a month and probably more if you count spring training. Why did I know this? It's not because I have some great foresight. I was reading the stats. People want to make baseball out to be a game about emotion and will. It's more about probability. You see a team that is feast or famine and think that's an issue that's going to cost them. Probability would tell you that a team who can put up 6-10 runs fairly often is a good offensive team and that over a large enough sample size runs will come more consistently.

Like I said, I'll take this team over 2017 cubs every day. As this is a game of probability I'll ask you a question. Which is more likely, Rizzo stays with a 103 wRC+ all season or he returns at the very least to his career 129(that's lower than the past 4 years)? And what you need to realize is returning to a 129 wRC+ doesn't mean he hits 129 over the rest of the season. It means he hits more like 140-150 because he already has 300 PAs at a far lower rate.

Simply put, the issues the cubs have aren't that they lack talent. When you lack talent that's when you worry. They are on pace to win 95 games right now. Imagine what kind of impact you would view a 95 win team trading for an ace pitcher and a gold glove MVP caliber 1B at the trade deadline. If Darvish and Rizzo return to what you expect them to be that's the impact you're getting in the second half of the season.

Now to be fair sure some guys performing well right now could fall off. I think Almora gets slightly worse given his BABIP but he's not going to entirely fall off a cliff. I generally view .330 BABIP as the cut off point. If you're over that you're likely due for some regression. Good hitters can have a fairly consistent .330 BABIP. The only cubs over .330 are Happ(.367), Russell(.347), Almora(.378), and Bryant(.340). So of those you're looking at maybe very slight regressions for Russell/Bryant, Almora coming down more to like a .290-.300 hitter rather than .323 and Happ to get worse but he's your 4th OF atm. In terms of pitching, Lester probably gets slightly worse but basically everyone else has room to improve.

 

[chibears55]

Yes. That's exactly what I expect. I mean look how long was I telling you that Heyward was a better player than he was showing. It was at least a month and probably more if you count spring training. Why did I know this? It's not because I have some great foresight. I was reading the stats. People want to make baseball out to be a game about emotion and will. It's more about probability. You see a team that is feast or famine and think that's an issue that's going to cost them. Probability would tell you that a team who can put up 6-10 runs fairly often is a good offensive team and that over a large enough sample size runs will come more consistently.

Like I said, I'll take this team over 2017 cubs every day. As this is a game of probability I'll ask you a question. Which is more likely, Rizzo stays with a 103 wRC+ all season or he returns at the very least to his career 129(that's lower than the past 4 years)? And what you need to realize is returning to a 129 wRC+ doesn't mean he hits 129 over the rest of the season. It means he hits more like 140-150 because he already has 300 PAs at a far lower rate.

Simply put, the issues the cubs have aren't that they lack talent. When you lack talent that's when you worry. They are on pace to win 95 games right now. Imagine what kind of impact you would view a 95 win team trading for an ace pitcher and a gold glove MVP caliber 1B at the trade deadline. If Darvish and Rizzo return to what you expect them to be that's the impact you're getting in the second half of the season.

Now to be fair sure some guys performing well right now could fall off. I think Almora gets slightly worse given his BABIP but he's not going to entirely fall off a cliff. I generally view .330 BABIP as the cut off point. If you're over that you're likely due for some regression. Good hitters can have a fairly consistent .330 BABIP. The only cubs over .330 are Happ(.367), Russell(.347), Almora(.378), and Bryant(.340). So of those you're looking at maybe very slight regressions for Russell/Bryant, Almora coming down more to like a .290-.300 hitter rather than .323 and Happ to get worse but he's your 4th OF atm. In terms of pitching, Lester probably gets slightly worse but basically everyone else has room to improve.

Look you all know where i stand..
We don't need to go back n forth

I hope im wrong and i wanna be wrong but i just dont see it with this team this year..

Darvish is still questionable

Need Hendricks and Quintana to pick it up and start pitching deeper and more consistent..

Is it going to be Chatwood or Montgomery the rest of the way

Bryant hopefully gets healthy and then needs to start being more of a run producer..

Contreras needs to produce more..

Rizzo been up and down

Schwarber has a couple big HRs then goes silence for a bit


Just too many IFs going on right now

We'll see, hope they dont wait to long to flip that switch again..

Something tells me it gonna be alot more difficult this year

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