IST: Miller vs Old Style

[beckdawg]

Only w some serious coin kicked in

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Eh... i mean Jackson's only got 2 years and $22 mil left after this season. People seem to underestimate how expensive he is. That's roughly what Feldman got in FA. Granted Feldman is probably the better pitcher. My point is just that if someone needs a 4/5th starter he's not super expensive. Cubs could easily kick in $5 mil and probably make any deal work for the other team. They might not even need that much. That being said, I think he has to get down to the 3.50-3.75 ERA range before anyone's going to really consider trading for him.

 

[brett05]

Eh... i mean Jackson's only got 2 years and $22 mil left after this season. People seem to underestimate how expensive he is. That's roughly what Feldman got in FA. Granted Feldman is probably the better pitcher. My point is just that if someone needs a 4/5th starter he's not super expensive. Cubs could easily kick in $5 mil and probably make any deal work for the other team. They might not even need that much. That being said, I think he has to get down to the 3.50-3.75 ERA range before anyone's going to really consider trading for him.

Have you watched his past few starts? Benefit if the ump, benefit of poor hitting. He can't throw three strikes in seven pitches.

Not only money but tons if a return is expected. He stinks. Always has

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[beckdawg]

Have you watched his past few starts? Benefit if the ump, benefit of poor hitting. He can't throw three strikes in seven pitches.

Not only money but tons if a return is expected. He stinks. Always has

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No way he returns tons. I see him more in the Feldman type sell off if anything. Jackson has the same thing going for him that he always has. Durability. Like it or not, he's good enough to be a starter just not a very good one. However, if you're a team like Texas who just got decimated by injuries that has value. Look at it this way, if the cubs were to toss in $5 mil in a trade that turns the remaining 2 year $22 contract to a 2 year $17 mil or roughly $8.5 mil a year. Look at what that gets you in FA. Josh Johnson obviously more talented and obviously a much higher durability risk got $8 mil. Jason Hammel got $6 mil. Edison Volquez got $5 mil. None of those guys have the history of durability he does.

I'm not trying to suggest he's a great pitcher. He's an innings eater and for some teams that's enough and the price point isn't that bad.

 

[brett05]

No way he returns tons. I see him more in the Feldman type sell off if anything. Jackson has the same thing going for him that he always has. Durability. Like it or not, he's good enough to be a starter just not a very good one. However, if you're a team like Texas who just got decimated by injuries that has value. Look at it this way, if the cubs were to toss in $5 mil in a trade that turns the remaining 2 year $22 contract to a 2 year $17 mil or roughly $8.5 mil a year. Look at what that gets you in FA. Josh Johnson obviously more talented and obviously a much higher durability risk got $8 mil. Jason Hammel got $6 mil. Edison Volquez got $5 mil. None of those guys have the history of durability he does.

I'm not trying to suggest he's a great pitcher. He's an innings eater and for some teams that's enough and the price point isn't that bad.

I just think inning eaters can be had even if you do it by committe with retreads like the wsox are doing this year

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[CSF77]

I wouldn't expect much from Jackson on a return. And the Cubs would end up eating it.

Even if he bounces back this year. Teams are going to look at his body of work and see a 4-5 starter and the market has plenty of those types at 8 mil per.

Hammels would have return value due to no long term commitment. Shark is the prize but most teams are not looking to let go of a top of the rotation arm to get him.

I see Hammels traded and Hendricks back filling this year. Shark is a harder sale due to the price tag. Jackson even if he continues (remember he is a .500 pitcher over his career IE spins one then lays a turd.. odds are he remains a 4.00 ERA type and has no sale attached.

 

[beckdawg]

Even if he bounces back this year. Teams are going to look at his body of work and see a 4-5 starter and the market has plenty of those types at 8 mil per.

At this time of year that's not exactly the case. You have teams like the Marlins having to sign guys who couldn't find homes in the offseason. I'm not saying that means Jackson can return a premium prospect but I'm sure they could trade him for at the very least a Corey Black level prospect and if he continues to improve possibly more like a Feldman level deal. Honestly, I'm not sure the cubs would make that sort of move though not because Jackson is good but because if they are out of it they have to have someone pitching and if they are already on the hook for him then he can eat the innings and it doesn't really matter what he does. Presumably they will trade Hammels and they possibly will trade Shark too so someone is going to have to pitch for them.

 

[CSF77]

At this time of year that's not exactly the case. You have teams like the Marlins having to sign guys who couldn't find homes in the offseason. I'm not saying that means Jackson can return a premium prospect but I'm sure they could trade him for at the very least a Corey Black level prospect and if he continues to improve possibly more like a Feldman level deal. Honestly, I'm not sure the cubs would make that sort of move though not because Jackson is good but because if they are out of it they have to have someone pitching and if they are already on the hook for him then he can eat the innings and it doesn't really matter what he does. Presumably they will trade Hammels and they possibly will trade Shark too so someone is going to have to pitch for them.

No they would rather take on Hammel. Short term solve.

I see Jackson sticking with Arrieta and Wood. Hendricks promoted. Shark is a wild card. I honestly do not see any team giving up a top 50 ranked pitching prospect for him.

Now Hammel could net a decent return with the performance he has been showing. .91 WHIP is a very solid sign that he will continue his performance and it is not just luck.

Shark has seen hard luck but Hammel .189 BA against. Shark .222 He stands up in a solid return category.

Jackson .262 BA against. 1.34 WHIP. Pretty run of the mil and he has contract attached to him.

 

[CSF77]

What would be smart is extend Bonifacio. Promote Bryant to AAA. Promote Baez and Alcantara in July at the dead line. Let Bryant get 150 AB's at Iowa and promote him up in Sept.

Then going into S/T you are looking at:

Bonifacio CF
Alcantara LF ?
Baez 2B
Rizzo 1B
Bryant 3B
Castro SS
? RF
Castillo

Another idea is to put Baez at LF. Strong arm less errors. He played OF in H.S. also.


I don't believe Soler will progress fast. Too injury prone. Enough said there.

Now they will still have Olt and Lake under control so they can still mix and match but with more talent.


That alone should make Shark want to stick around, knowing the future is now not when ever.

 

[Boobaby1]

No way he returns tons. I see him more in the Feldman type sell off if anything. Jackson has the same thing going for him that he always has. Durability. Like it or not, he's good enough to be a starter just not a very good one. However, if you're a team like Texas who just got decimated by injuries that has value. Look at it this way, if the cubs were to toss in $5 mil in a trade that turns the remaining 2 year $22 contract to a 2 year $17 mil or roughly $8.5 mil a year. Look at what that gets you in FA. Josh Johnson obviously more talented and obviously a much higher durability risk got $8 mil. Jason Hammel got $6 mil. Edison Volquez got $5 mil. None of those guys have the history of durability he does.

I'm not trying to suggest he's a great pitcher. He's an innings eater and for some teams that's enough and the price point isn't that bad.

Also, factor in a team that has hitting potential more than the Cubs. Not only does he eat innings, but that increases his chances of netting team wins.

He was better than a .500 pitcher on teams that had hitting or were competitive.

 

[CSF77]

Edwin Jackson rhp
4 years/$52M (2013-16)

4 years/$52M (2013-16)
signed by Chicago Cubs as a free agent 12/20/12
$8M signing bonus
13:$11M, 14:$11M, 15:$11M, 16:$11M
deal does not include no-trade protection

A team would have to pay out 11 mil per for 2015/16 and the diff this year for a #4. Not going to happen. Now if he was a 1/2 starter than that is a bargain.

It was a bad signing. Teams are not stupid to take bad contracts when they can just add a 1 year rental.

That being said; if Jackson puts up shark type production the rest of the way and gets the luck of run support this could be discussed in the offseason where the Cubs eat some of the 22 mil.

IMO this is a made your bed move. If Jackson ends up .500 in his tour it is expected. It wouldn't surprise me if he put up a 15-10 record one of the 4 years he is here. More likely later on when Bryant and Baez are on the team.


Another issue to think on:

Shark has not extended yet. Hammel is on a 1 year. So 2/5's of the rotation are short term. They are not going to make it 3/5's to replace. Not with the arm issues going on lately. They have to worry about their own team also vs trying to Frankenstein a rotation together on the cheap.

 

[chibears55]

Castillo gets things going with s big 2 run bomb...

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[chibears55]

No. 9 for mike olt. 4-0 cubs

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[SilenceS]

Castro stinging the ball right now!

 

[chibears55]

Castro stinging the ball right now!

Trade him )

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[theberserkfury]

Come on, Rondon... finish this up.

 

[chibears55]

Cubs win.. Rondon 5-5 save opportunities
Bring on the mighty yankees....

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[beckdawg]

Cubs run diff down to -3. You can see that the record doesn't match the play of the team. They are a couple of players away from being an average team.