I feel that our free-swinging high strike out team is not a utopian build for the playoffs especially when the cold comes. The Mets continue to show us how good pitching and average hitting is enough to beat us.
I am not a fan of the bullpen overall and especially fear them come playoff time when managers make so many more moves.
I think our starting pitching is overrated and Arrieta is starting to scare me. We may be seeing the real Arrieta.
I love how the Royals were built last year. Their hitters put the ball in play and their bullpen was deep. The rental of Cueto was brilliant. Law of averages says we're due, for like 80 years now, but while I love seeing this young competitive team, I don't think they are built for winning it all at this time. Theo needs to put far more focus on developing pitching in the minors while finding a high BA hitter for the outfield.
I posted this on another site in response to another post but nearly all of it applies here so here goes.
There are a few things in your post I want to address. The first is the myth of 1 run playoff games. In the 2015 playoffs 5 out of 39 games were 1 run games. There was also a 14 inning game so that kind of fits the same profile but that still 6 out 39 so that's still only 15% of playoff games decided by one run. There were only a handful more decided by 2 runs. The reality is that to win a 7 game playoff series you probably have to win 1 or 2 close games of your 4 wins. In a 5 game series 1 close game of your 3 wins is likely. There's a misconception that good pitching always beats good hitting and that's not empirically true. Great pitching almost always beats good hitting but great hitting often beats very solid pitching. You don't have to win a ton of games 2-1 or 3-2. I mean that's simply not accurate. I'll get to this in more detail later in the post but, when healthy and playing well, the Cubs have a lineup of very good hitters that can score runs. To say that won't be a factor in the playoffs is inaccurate.
The next thing is the bullpen. You're writing it off as if it is terrible beyond redemption which is simply not the case. Rondon and Strop have been excellent as has Travis Wood in the role he's been asked to take. Carl Edwards has started to show that he may be that right handed answer with great stuff and a ton of K's and for the most part Trevor Cahill, with some blips like yesterday, has been good as well. In the regular season the Cubs use a bullpen rotation of 7-8 guys while in the playoffs they'll use 5, maybe 6 and one of those will be the starter that isn't used. As far as the playoff roster I would say they'll probably use one of Cahill or Warren depending on performance down the stretch so now you're talking Rondon, Strop, Wood, Cahill/Warren, Edwards a LOOGY yet to be acquired and likely Kyle Hendricks. You can't tell me that's not capable of being a good playoff bullpen.
The next thing is the lineup that you don't believe is capable of winning playoff games. Here would be a likely playoff lineup:
Fowler CF
Zobrist 2B
Bryant LF
Rizzo 1B
Baez 3B
Heyward RF
Contreras C
Russell SS
Obviously there are variables in terms of righty/lefty pitching matchups, individual matchups, etc and there is the real possibility that Heyward could regain his form, but that looks like a pretty typical lineup. Can you honestly tell me that's worse than the other likely playoff teams? I think SF, Washington, St. Louis and Miami all have strong hitting lineups but are they that much better? I would say no. That lineup, given the right matchups, will score a lot of runs.
As far as trades I certainly expect them to make some. A left handed reliever is a must and Edwards has only had a small sample size so you can't pencil him in just yet. So maybe you need two relievers, but likely just one will do it. I think the possibility of upgrading from Hammel is a real one. Hendricks does not fit the mold of a playoff pitcher, regardless of how good he has been, due to his need for pinpoint command. So that's probably one reliever and a starter. A left handed bench bat is not out of the question but might be more for the regular season than the playoffs. These are doable acquisitions.
Listen, none of this is to excuse the poor play the last couple of weeks. The depth has been tasked and at times they've had three rookies in the lineup out of need, not performance. They've looked sloppy and not sharp. I guess I'm just not ready to look at a team on 7/7 and say that's going to be in October when they have this kind of talent. Bryant, Rizzo, Fowler and Zobrist are rock solid playoff guys. Heyward should be if he can get it together and Baez and Russell are consistently improving, even in this rough stretch. Contreras is a rookie but I have faith that he'll perform.
I'm not saying any of this to be a polyanna, there are problems to be fixed, but to look at this team today and say they're not a contender is shortsighted and foolish. The Mets were just keeping pace with the Nationals at this time last year and they had far great needs to acquire than the Cubs do this year. I think so much of this writing off of the team in July is a defense mechanism based on past heartbreak. That's being a baseball fan it's being shellshocked Cubs fan and I'm trying, and mostly succeeding, in not going there. I have faith because I recognize talent and trust the people running this team. It's really that simple.
