Jordan: I could score 100 in current NBA

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I think the mistake people are making is equating fouls with the game being more or less physical. The refs are told points of emphasis or things to watch year in and year out. Call more loosly call more tightly. Just watching the games and the difference between the late 80's, the late 90's and now you can see the difference. Fouls IMO isn't a great indicator of the "physicality" of the play.
 

Lefty

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Ok...but what foul calls do give us is an indication of how many chances at the foul line a league average team would reasonably have in a given game. And because the amount of fouls per game have actually gone down, there is absolutely no indication (outside of biased beliefs based on nothing definite and testable) that the statement "Drexler would have gone to the line X amount of more times per game, and that would have increased his scoring numbers to the point where he is deemed better than certain players in today's game" is in any way valid.

All of these statements by the pro-Drexler crowd are merely suppositions that have no testable basis in reality, just subjective juxtapositions of the two different eras that mean nothing. Making statements like these people have requires so many erroneous assumptions on their part as to render their points laughable. All we can really test with certainty is the value given by certain players, and in that regard there are a good number of players currently in the NBA that are more valuable than Clyde Drexler ever was, and they are, therefore, better players than him.
 

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Ok...but what foul calls do give us is an indication of how many chances at the foul line a league average team would reasonably have in a given game.

Very true but the the officiating in the league changing sometimes on a yearly basis due to points of emphasis etc it's too difficult to really get a good grip on what the total number of fouls means from year to year let alone era vs era. Just talking from my work keyboard here but hypothetically if a certain foul is more or de-emphasized that allows a player like Drexler to get to the basket easier where fouls are easier to come by then it's possible rule changes on a yearly basis and changes over the course of an era would make it easier for Drexler to accumlate points. I think just looking at how many fouls are being called in general really isn't a great way of evaluating the "physicality" of a league at a certain time.

There's just far too many variables IMO for the stat to mean much of anything.

What fouls are being called more in general? Where are the fouls being called on the floor? Are there more shooting fouls? What rules were de-emphasized or called more strictly from a year to year basis that would benefot/hurt a player like Drexler getting fouled or to the FT line?

Hypothetically there may have been less fouls called back in Drexlers era and the 90's as the game was more physical players had more free reign to bump, grab etc and it was within the rules so those fouls weren't called. Fast forward to today. More fouls are being called for the reason that something that was allowable 20 years ago no longer is and has to be whistled. Players get to the lane more easily as such and fouls in the lane increase as players are more able to get into crowded areas where fouls are more likely. Who know's really. There's far too many variables to use the fouls stat as a real indicator of anything for the physical play of an era....for either side.



All of these statements by the pro-Drexler crowd are merely suppositions that have no testable basis in reality, just subjective juxtapositions of the two different eras that mean nothing. Making statements like these people have requires so many erroneous assumptions on their part as to render their points laughable. All we can really test with certainty is the value given by certain players, and in that regard there are a good number of players currently in the NBA that are more valuable than Clyde Drexler ever was, and they are, therefore, better players than him.

I would disagree with that point though. Like I said I'd take Drexler over Paul Pierce 7 days a week and not even think about it. Regardless of Drexler's career scoring average compared to Pierce Drexler IMO was a betetr player and more highly regarded against his own era than Pierce is/was. Like I also said before...simply evlauating the players stats heads up misses the picture of what they were asked to do on their team, how the assimilated into the team concept and the style of basketball their teams played. There's too many variables to simply base Pierce < or > Drexler based upon an evaluation of little more than their scoring average.
 

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Very true but the the officiating in the league changing sometimes on a yearly basis due to points of emphasis etc it's too difficult to really get a good grip on what the total number of fouls means from year to year let alone era vs era. Just talking from my work keyboard here but hypothetically if a certain foul is more or de-emphasized that allows a player like Drexler to get to the basket easier where fouls are easier to come by then it's possible rule changes on a yearly basis and changes over the course of an era would make it easier for Drexler to accumlate points. I think just looking at how many fouls are being called in general really isn't a great way of evaluating the "physicality" of a league at a certain time.

There's just far too many variables IMO for the stat to mean much of anything.

What fouls are being called more in general? Where are the fouls being called on the floor? Are there more shooting fouls? What rules were de-emphasized or called more strictly from a year to year basis that would benefot/hurt a player like Drexler getting fouled or to the FT line?

Hypothetically there may have been less fouls called back in Drexlers era and the 90's as the game was more physical players had more free reign to bump, grab etc and it was within the rules so those fouls weren't called. Fast forward to today. More fouls are being called for the reason that something that was allowable 20 years ago no longer is and has to be whistled. Players get to the lane more easily as such and fouls in the lane increase as players are more able to get into crowded areas where fouls are more likely. Who know's really. There's far too many variables to use the fouls stat as a real indicator of anything for the physical play of an era....for either side.

Admittedly, I do not have access to the specifics of fouls called throughout NBA history, so I am not able to answer to the very valid questions you brought up. However, would the ambiguity of fouling statistics not also work against the "Drexler would get to the foul line more" side? They are facing those same ambiguities, just from the other side. They cannot say with any amount of certainty that Drexler would get to the foul line more (and thus increase his value above and beyond Pierce) than he did previously, just as I cannot say that he decidedly would not.

This goes back to the idea that you can only go so far with era-comparisons, because eventually you are going to want to play one player's career all over again in a different era, which necessitates a whole bunch of assumptions on your part, many of which will have no basis in fact, or would at the very least violate the whole "the game isn't played on a computer" rule that so many seem to have.

To me, the fouling discussion is a moot point: no side is going to be able to please the other, and really we lack the modeling tools (and the time machine) necessary to go back and actually see what would happen.

(Forgot to read all the way to the end of the part I quoted, so yeah, basically what you said)

I would disagree with that point though. Like I said I'd take Drexler over Paul Pierce 7 days a week and not even think about it. Regardless of Drexler's career scoring average compared to Pierce Drexler IMO was a betetr player and more highly regarded against his own era than Pierce is/was. Like I also said before...simply evlauating the players stats heads up misses the picture of what they were asked to do on their team, how the assimilated into the team concept and the style of basketball their teams played. There's too many variables to simply base Pierce < or > Drexler based upon an evaluation of little more than their scoring average.

That's getting back into subjective valuating, though, and it is also assuming that it is known to a very high degree that the player was asked to do something other than what his abilities would be best applied to doing on the court, and that the true ability level of the player is known. Think about it, when you choose not to punish Drexler for not out-scoring Pierce (or just plain putting more points on the board), you are assuming that he was explicitly told (or asked) not to do that, and that he would have had better output had he not been told/asked to do those things. That's quite a bit of assuming, don't you think?

In the end, a player's statistical output is all we have to go on, because it is obviously impossible to start a given player's career over again in another era, playing out the season on a computer with a given formula or algorithm wouldn't satisfy the basketball purists, and pure subjective reasoning ultimately leads to sweeping generalizations and assumptions.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure the subjective breakdown of Drexler's overall game, his shot, his tenacity or whatever else would be a very interesting discussion, but it would be improper to then take those subjective points and extract concrete meaning (this guy is better than that guy), especially when it flies in the face of what the real numbers tell you (that guy is actually better than this guy).

And I'm not saying that the statistical route is infallible, but when there is such a highly contested debate about a given point, and the real, tangible, testable numbers favor one side, and the other side is only left with subjective breakdowns and suppositions, to me the choice is obvious on which way to go.

Who knows, maybe Clyde Drexler was better than Paul Pierce, maybe Drexler would tear up today's NBA, it would be close-minded of me to say that it is impossible or out of the question, but discussion on that topic doesn't really mean anything, it's all just conjecture. All I can say is that of the two players, one gave more value (by way of keeping close in peripheral areas and performing significantly better in the most important area) than the other, and is thus the better player, and that is something that we can go back and test, and something that we an apply to other players, not just this specific one or this specific pair.
 

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Still on Drexler? I thought someone would have brought up Bevo Francis by now.
 

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Admittedly, I do not have access to the specifics of fouls called throughout NBA history, so I am not able to answer to the very valid questions you brought up. However, would the ambiguity of fouling statistics not also work against the "Drexler would get to the foul line more" side? They are facing those same ambiguities, just from the other side. They cannot say with any amount of certainty that Drexler would get to the foul line more (and thus increase his value above and beyond Pierce) than he did previously, just as I cannot say that he decidedly would not.
No doubt.That's why I said earlier...can't even remember if it was in the last post...that neitehr side can use the "fouls" argument to prove a point. There's just too many variables to make an evaluation.

To me, the fouling discussion is a moot point: no side is going to be able to please the other, and really we lack the modeling tools (and the time machine) necessary to go back and actually see what would happen.

(Forgot to read all the way to the end of the part I quoted, so yeah, basically what you said)
Agreed.



That's getting back into subjective valuating, though, and it is also assuming that it is known to a very high degree that the player was asked to do something other than what his abilities would be best applied to doing on the court, and that the true ability level of the player is known.
Agreed. And I have no issues with subjective valuing though if it's done in a thoughtful logical way. Truly team sports like basketball, football, hockey, etc lend themselves more to this type of discussion than baseball does and I'm fine with it. For better for worse players careers and stats can and willbe effected by players on the floor around them, coaching, etc. A large part of it is subjective, for better or for worse. But that's fine with me and doesn't sit(as) well with others.

Think about it, when you choose not to punish Drexler for not out-scoring Pierce (or just plain putting more points on the board), you are assuming that he was explicitly told (or asked) not to do that, and that he would have had better output had he not been told/asked to do those things.
I guess...except it's not really much of an assumption as I know when Adelman came to the Blazers he installed a newer system and asked Drexler to change his role a bit to provide for more well rounded scoring on the team. I don't think it's too much of a coincidence that Drexler went from two straight years of 27+ PPG before Adelman to having his scoring drop off for the next few years..spike again for one more season then drop again. It's pretty well known what Drexler was asked to do when Adelman arrived.


In the end, a player's statistical output is all we have to go on
I guess...but if you look only at that then you are kind of not seeing the forest from the trees many times in regards to the situation(s) surrounding that player and the numerous factors leading to those statistics. In a sport like basketball I refuse to look at a players stats as narrowly as just looking at them and taking it as "truth" of what the player did or was capable of.

.

Don't get me wrong, I'm sure the subjective breakdown of Drexler's overall game, his shot, his tenacity or whatever else would be a very interesting discussion, but it would be improper to then take those subjective points and extract concrete meaning (this guy is better than that guy), especially when it flies in the face of what the real numbers tell you (that guy is actually better than this guy).
You're assuming the numbers aren't misleading though. The numbers in a sport like basketball can be misleading based upon the situations occuring around that player that lead to the numbers. IMO drawing concrete meaning from either the numbers or the subjective arguments in a sport like basketball is a mistake.


And I'm not saying that the statistical route is infallible, but when there is such a highly contested debate about a given point, and the real, tangible, testable numbers favor one side, and the other side is only left with subjective breakdowns and suppositions, to me the choice is obvious on which way to go.
Again though....that's taking the numbers on their face and not evaluating what lead to those numbers inside a team oriented/influenced game like basketball.
 

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