With regard to the walk rate, that's would be rather atypical. Typically, players who walk a lot walked a lot in the minors. For example, using Stanton again he walked at 18.3% in AA stint 2, 9.1% in stint 1(at 19), 13.3% in A+, and 10.7% in A. I get the logic behind people's thought. Baez was one of the most pitched around players last season. The thought being if he stops getting himself out he'll walk more essentially. My issue with that is I'm not really sure that's the case. Pitcher are pitching around him because it's easy and he gets himself out. If he stops doing that, you're still talking about him having to adjust to pitcher pitching him like they would any normal power hitter. And from what i've read, his stance which he uses to generate such bat speed opens up a lot of problem areas for him. I'm not going to pretend like I know all about that. Just saying what I've read. So, I'm not going to flat out say it's impossible for him to improve his walk rate but I will say he would be the exception to most 10%+ walk rate players.
I'd also just like to mention the fact that while he's 22 one thing to consider is just how long it can take to get accustomed to a new stance/swing. They messed around with Castro and they lost a year to it. So, realistically speaking people shouldn't expect anything out of this year especially after the slow start he's had in the DWL. With him basically being on that fringe of good enough to beat AAA but not good enough to beat MLB you start to run into a problem with regard to options years of which you get 3. Any set backs in terms of injury or just adjustment period and he's suddenly not a young guy anymore. You start talking about a 24/25 year old who's not a known quantity and is low on option years and his situation becomes difficult to manage because if he's still hitting in the .200-.230 range it's tough to throw that out there daily if you're hoping to be a competitive team.
As for him hitting 40 HRs for another team, honestly it wouldn't bother me. Does it bother Sox/A's fans that Chris Carter hit 37 for the Astros last season? Regret only creeps in if he becomes a super star and only if the player you get wasn't equally as good. This is the key point when you talk about something like the Lou Brock trade. If Broglio pitched 5-7 more seasons at the level he had prior to the trade(talking Jordan Zimmermann level as a today comp.) then people would have an entirely different view of that trade. Does anyone regret trading away Hee Seop Choi for Derrek Lee? Granted Choi was never a top 10 prospect but he did reach 22 in BA's 2003 top 100. Does anyone regret trading Bobby Hill(#48 in 2002) for Ramirez? Do the Royals regret trading Wil Myers(Shields trade), the Tigers trading Camreon Maybin(Miggy/Willis trade), or the Rays Trading Delmon Young(Garza/Bartlett trade)? All of those were top 10 prospects at some point. Obviously you can see where I'm going with this.
It often feels like fans and cubs fans in general have this natural aversion to someone else getting the better of them with their home grown players. I could literally cite dozens of championship caliber teams from the 90's/2000's that were built on the back of trading the next hot prospect. The Cardinals didn't develop McGwire, Rolen, Edmonds, and Holliday. The Yankees didn't develop Knoblauch, Tino Martinez, Paul O'Neill, David Cone, Clemens, and Mussina. Presumably Baez is the type of piece that would headline any one of those trades. My point is simple. Maybe my expectations on Baez are low and maybe not. But why take the risk if you can get a piece such as one of these players? 75% of top 100 prospects end up being below average or worse major league players. I think it's something like 40% of top 10 hitters end up being below average or worse players. You're essentially talking a coin flip and that's ignoring what we've already seen. And cubs fans have seen the gambling path with promising players like Pie, Patterson, Vitters, Jackson...etc. There's just far too many questions for me to feel comfortable.
