Keith Law Rates Cubs #1

KBIB

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There are tons of walls of text here which i really wont read thru if its to justify anything Keith Law says.

Case and point; Der Cubs have a shit ton of prospects, most w9ont pan out. Trade them for other prospects who will.

Russell will be the best player out of everybody....including Bryant.
 

beckdawg

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I have no real issue with trading guys at all. In fact I've always thought Baez would end up being the odd man out since he doesn't quite fit the the Theo/Jed mold. That being said I also think that the fact that so many in baseball think his ceiling is generational talent counts for something. I hope he's part of a deal that nets us a pitcher so we can stop talking about signing more 30 plus year olds for $30 million plus a year. You mention trades where trading prospects worked out but sometimes it doesn't. The Dodgers traded Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields, Ryne Sandberg was traded for Ivan DeJesus and John Smoltz was traded for Doyle Alexander. Also your what if scenario for Brock for Broglio is kind of silly since that was a historically bad trade and the scout that had identified Brock quit the same day. The trick is knowing the guys to trade. I don't think the the Cubs know enough about any of their guys right this minute to make those decisions. Hopefully they'll figure a ton out this year and we won't even have to talk about this any more.

For every Pedro/Sandberg/Smoltz I'm willing to bet I can come up with 4 trades that didn't work out well on the prospect side. I also think it's a tad disingenuous comparing Baez to those players because Sandberg and Smoltz had no real playing time in the majors and Pedro had 100 or so innings of great pitching. Baez on the other hand has the highest k rate of any player ever with 200 PAs. If people wish to believe in his potential that's fine but you can't just ignore that as a astronomic concern. It could be growing pains or it could be real but that's sort of my point. Why gamble? You're first gambling that he improves. You're then gambling he improves enough to be worth it. I'll take a guy like Denard Span has been the past 4-5 years over that potential any day. That's not to say I'd trade Baez for Span now given Span is 30 but rather a young player that's consistently good but not necessarily a star.

As for the Brock thing, the point was it's only a bad trade because they got nothing out of the other side of the trade. It's not a bad trade because Brock went on to be a HoF player. In fact, I'd argue he'd never have been the same player with the cubs because both his steals and his OBP improved immediately after being traded which should tell you the Cards saw something the Cubs didn't.

People get greedy about having all the star players. I've said this before but winning championships isn't about having the best players it's about having the best team. The giants last season had 5 players over 2.5 fWAR with those being Posey(5.7), Pence(4.7), Sandoval(3.0), Crawford(2.7), and Bumgarner(3.6). The cubs presumably already have 2 for the foreseeable future with Rizzo(5.6) and Castro(2.9) and may have more with Arrieta(4.9) and that's without even mentioning the prospect army. What kills teams is when they get nothing out of a position which is why I believe this for the lack of a better term "all or nothing" approach with Baez is the wrong one. Give me the sure thing as a 3-4 win player any day over the hope someone is a 4+ WAR player. This is especially true when you're already talking about dealing from a position you're strong at.
 

Parade_Rain

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That's the first time I have ever read one of your posts regarding Baez that made sense why you preferred someone else. This is why I would not consider trading Castro even when Russell is ready.
 

JP Hochbaum

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I don't think Baez fits into any certain slot of player comparisons. While he lacks the plate discipline Sheffiled had tight now, he has that potential to be that. While it is incredibly rare for someone to correct for their current strikeout rate it certainly can happen with swing adjustments and time and plate discipline as he is still 21-22. Chris Carter is 28 and spent a lot of time in the minors without changing much. Baez has shown he can adapt at each level.
 

JP Hochbaum

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We also need to remember that history shows that players can drop their K rates by up to 10% after their initial major league debuts. IF that happens with Baez, best case scenario we are looking at a .260-.270 hitter with 30-40hrs. That is likely an all star at the second base position. Like I said earlier, he won't have the Sheffield type K rate or BB rate but he can significantly improve based on just how bad he was last year.
 

brett05

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JP, I don't think Baez has shown his ability to cut down on the k's nor is it historically accurate to say players like him show they can cut 10% of their K rate. Beck a few times has had some great analysis with the numbers on this one.

It can happen, but statistically it would seem to be not likely.
 

JP Hochbaum

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And here is a great run down on the success rate of guys in the minors who had high k rates and low walk rates. At this point in his career Baez still has a 20% chance of being a productive major league player and an additional 15% chance of being average.

So while his bust rate potential is at 80%, you can't give up hope that he will be that 20% that becomes productive, especially at 2b hitting 30+ homers.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/20...ospects-double-a-walk-strikeout-rates-success

Another good read on Baez that I am throwing into here:

Since the average productive% is 3.7 for the career numbers, this isn't quite as promising as his 2014, but it still shows him as being about twice as likely as the average player to become a productive major league hitter. The top hitters with similar careers to Baez are David Ortiz and Juan Gonzalez. We can see now why his hitting ability, combined with enough defensive aptitude to play shortstop in AAA make Baez an extremely exciting prospect.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/7/14/5862042/mlb-prospects-iso-bb-k-javier-baez-introduction
 

JP Hochbaum

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JP, I don't think Baez has shown his ability to cut down on the k's nor is it historically accurate to say players like him show they can cut 10% of their K rate. Beck a few times has had some great analysis with the numbers on this one.

It can happen, but statistically it would seem to be not likely.

I didn't say it will happen but that historically speaking it has about a 15% chance of happening.
 

hyatt151

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I have no real issue with trading guys at all. In fact I've always thought Baez would end up being the odd man out since he doesn't quite fit the the Theo/Jed mold. That being said I also think that the fact that so many in baseball think his ceiling is generational talent counts for something. I hope he's part of a deal that nets us a pitcher so we can stop talking about signing more 30 plus year olds for $30 million plus a year. You mention trades where trading prospects worked out but sometimes it doesn't. The Dodgers traded Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields, Ryne Sandberg was traded for Ivan DeJesus and John Smoltz was traded for Doyle Alexander. Also your what if scenario for Brock for Broglio is kind of silly since that was a historically bad trade and the scout that had identified Brock quit the same day. The trick is knowing the guys to trade. I don't think the the Cubs know enough about any of their guys right this minute to make those decisions. Hopefully they'll figure a ton out this year and we won't even have to talk about this any more.


Knowing Theo, it's simple. He will trade whoever brings back the most value.
 

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