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My favorite teams
Thinking about the trade this morning and wanted to run through some draft value numbers.
If Bears are bottom 3rd next two years and Raiders are tp 3rd:
2019 1st:1300
2020 1st:1300
2020 3rd:220
2019 6th:23
2020 2nd:370
2020 5th:32
Mack will have cost the Bears:2441(3rd overall and 70th)
If both teams are middle of the road
2019 1st:1000
2020 1st:1000
2020 3rd:190
2019 6th:21
2020 2nd:420
2020 5th:34
Mack will have cost the Bears: 1757 (5th overall and 118)
If Bears become a fringe playoff team and Raiders drop to bottom third:
2019 1st:800
2020 1st:800
2020 3rd:165
2019 6th:19
2020 2nd:380
2020 5th:37
Mack will have cost the Bears:1367 (9th overall and 186)
I think the value is going to end up being between 2 and 3 and giving what amounts to about Leonard Floyd, Jamal Adams, Christian McCaffery, Jack Conklin, or DeForest Buckner and a 5th or 6th rounder for the equivalent of a Brian Urlacher type player in production and leadership but at a more valued position is one of the most lopsided trades in NFL history. This is the Bears Lou Brock trade in reverse.
If Bears are bottom 3rd next two years and Raiders are tp 3rd:
2019 1st:1300
2020 1st:1300
2020 3rd:220
2019 6th:23
2020 2nd:370
2020 5th:32
Mack will have cost the Bears:2441(3rd overall and 70th)
If both teams are middle of the road
2019 1st:1000
2020 1st:1000
2020 3rd:190
2019 6th:21
2020 2nd:420
2020 5th:34
Mack will have cost the Bears: 1757 (5th overall and 118)
If Bears become a fringe playoff team and Raiders drop to bottom third:
2019 1st:800
2020 1st:800
2020 3rd:165
2019 6th:19
2020 2nd:380
2020 5th:37
Mack will have cost the Bears:1367 (9th overall and 186)
I think the value is going to end up being between 2 and 3 and giving what amounts to about Leonard Floyd, Jamal Adams, Christian McCaffery, Jack Conklin, or DeForest Buckner and a 5th or 6th rounder for the equivalent of a Brian Urlacher type player in production and leadership but at a more valued position is one of the most lopsided trades in NFL history. This is the Bears Lou Brock trade in reverse.