Kings 1st Rd Pick to Bulls watch

[Raskolnikov]

Basic watch- Are the Kings looking capable of finishing outside the bottom 10? or bottom third of league.


Advanced watch- http://www.blogabull.com/2014/1/7/5285346/will-we-actually-get-the-sacramento-pick

I don't know if this guys math is 100% correct on every assumption on the page, but its the deepest look at this problem you are likely to find.

In summary, we have a 25% statistical probability of never getting the pick we traded Deng for. The math says 75% chance we do, and the basketball says a healthy

Cousins, Gay (upward pendulum players who both played in FIBA and should be in great shape and form early) plus a dangerous PG in Collinson, Landry, and Stauskas. so I think the basketball says 50% chance they can hover in that Memphis, Lakers, Phoenix, New Orleans, Sacramento tier above the putrid east and near the level we need them to be to give us a mid round 1st in 2015.

If Cousins is to make an all-star push they will have to be competitive. Gay looked to be improving and understanding winning basketball and taking a winning roll with FIBA, if he can just win his +/- and be a winning NBA player, the fact that he has a big man should improve his effeciency numbers. This team is in a terribly tough conference, and Kobes' return could make it even tougher. The Lakers are going to be in good condition, and may surprise with a core of Young, Kobe, Randle, Boozer bringing them four legitimate offensive threats, so wins will be tight in the west.

The more east teams that can finish with a worse record than the Kings the better, the question is can they keep from getting beat up on in the Western conference to where their record is worse than all the East teams who have easy wins all over the schedule.

So....monitoring that situation as it could be the confounding variable keeping the "probabilities" farther away than they appear. In that case we got fleeced of Deng and desperately need to hit on the McDermott pick to save the mistake, or collect another chance from Sacramento.

I'll revisit this question around the all-star break or if they make a trade of Gay or sign him long term. That is the biggest question facing their franchise right now that will impact the pick. Or obviously Cousins who we want them to keep or recoup the world for.

Also...there is the human issue, if they keep mortaging the present for the future building for a time they won't lose a first and holding onto the pick while accumulating future talent assets. Its the human side outside the math, if they are committed to a long term plan and wrote the rules into their trade of that pick in the first place and are sticking to the plan. Then we are fucked and got a dirty trick pick.

I'm hoping this works out for the best, and feel their is extra pressure for McD to succeed due to the picks we gave up for him and how long we waited in turmoil for the Bobcats to be good enough to fork it over. My Loooord.

Now its finally here and we got McD after waiting and waiting and we have been waiting and waiting on the hope of Mirotic with a similar fear in both cases that we very well may get nothing, and people on here that are the constant pessimists said we would get nothing and now they are mad and doubting these players we have waited ages for their "value" to come to us in assets and we have tangible players and tangible names and histories to predict how they will do!!

All that waiting is over and its here at the same time!! and thank god because if we were still waiting on all 3 first round talents "value" future assets like we so easily could be with a just few more Bobcats losses or injuries to the fragile PF they have, and a mess up with Mirotic or him wanting to stay...? and we could be adding nothing !!! If Rose was healthy maybe we beat the Bobcats 4 times, pick 27th, they keep their pick, and Mirotic gets traded because we were trying to fix some other problem Rose's presence made obvious.

So to tell you the truth, I'm giddy about all the assets we have and can't wait to see if we also end up with something during this Sacramento situation.

Go Kings!! Go Mirotic!! Go McBuckets!!

These three developing stories may very well determine our ability to eventually climb Mount James and protect the legacy of D.Rose or not.

 

[Crystallas]

It's lottery bound, so who knows. I hope we get it in 2016.

 

[JosMin]

Think it's top 12 protected for this season then top 10 the next two seasons. Either way, I'm not seeing them (the Kings) doing anything substantial to get them out of the lottery. We can only hope they contend for a #8 seed all year and miss the playoffs to get us a low-teens pick. Need to grab a replacement for Butler in the event that his contract demands are too ridiculous when he goes into his qualifying offer season. Time will obviously tell.

 

[Axl Rose]

watch it turn into nothing?

the restrictions on the pick suck

 

[Papa Wheelie]

Think it's top 12 protected for this season then top 10 the next two seasons. Either way, I'm not seeing them (the Kings) doing anything substantial to get them out of the lottery. We can only hope they contend for a #8 seed all year and miss the playoffs to get us a low-teens pick. Need to grab a replacement for Butler in the event that his contract demands are too ridiculous when he goes into his qualifying offer season. Time will obviously tell.

It's top 10 for next 3 years. I don't think it's too bad. If the Kings are in top 10 for next 3 years, Cousins will become disgruntled imo.


2015 first round draft pick from Sacramento

Sacramento's 1st round pick to Chicago (via Cleveland) protected for selections 1-10 in 2015, 1-10 in 2016 and 1-10 in 2017; if Sacramento has not conveyed a 1st round pick to Chicago by 2017, then Sacramento will instead convey its 2017 2nd round pick to Chicago protected for selections 56-60 (if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Sacramento's obligation to Chicago will be extinguished) [Cleveland-Sacramento, 6/30/2011 then Chicago-Cleveland, 1/7/2014]

 

[Raskolnikov]

Yes....if they elect to trade Cousins or Gay it will be hard for them to climb out. There have 6-7 good players but I think they are too thin to make it out this year without alot of health.

 

[The Hawk]

Nice td pass from Orton. 7-7 tie against NE.


Oops. Wrong board

 

[Enasic]

Think it's top 12 protected for this season then top 10 the next two seasons. Either way, I'm not seeing them (the Kings) doing anything substantial to get them out of the lottery. We can only hope they contend for a #8 seed all year and miss the playoffs to get us a low-teens pick. Need to grab a replacement for Butler in the event that his contract demands are too ridiculous when he goes into his qualifying offer season. Time will obviously tell.

Butler isn't going anywhere.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Well...Cousins and Gay are riding FIBA experience and their rubbing elbows with the best coaches in the world to a fast start. 6-4, and in position to fork over that pick. Their defensive efficiency numbers indicate they will slip some, and of course the Thunder will get two top 10 players back. New Orleans will probably find themselves,

but if they keep scoring I think its going to be closer than we thought at beginning of season. To have two first's two years in a row would be something considering making the playoffs, adding Rose to the mix, having your Euro phenom decide to come to NBA instead of stay for money, and landing a great shooter at SF with our two firsts last year.

Hindsight of that McDermot pick might be tough to swallow, with Harris and Young combo available, but they did the safest thing and had to work with contracts and bringing Mirotic over. We certainly don't have minutes for 3 rookies and Snell.

I wish we would trade Dunleavy for future assets....maybe we are increasing his value right now by starting him first half, hoping we can score a late first for him, in which case we are a dark horse to have 3 firsts next year, which we would probably use with our plethora of seconds to trade up again.

 

[RoseMVP1]

I wish we would trade Dunleavy for future assets....maybe we are increasing his value right now by starting him first half, hoping we can score a late first for him, in which case we are a dark horse to have 3 firsts next year, which we would probably use with our plethora of seconds to trade up again.

Dunleavy is a key player for our team. He shows up every night and plays his hardest and never gets injured. He adds consistent 3 point shooting, good rebounding, and above average defense. And he's on a value contract. It's not necessary to trade him.

 

[Crystallas]

MDJ is great, considering his contract.

 

[clonetrooper264]

Dunleavy is a key player for our team. He shows up every night and plays his hardest and never gets injured. He adds consistent 3 point shooting, good rebounding, and above average defense. And he's on a value contract. It's not necessary to trade him.

Bold is pretty awesome considering his injury history robbing him of much of his athletic ability

Good player on a good contract. We could move him, but it'd have to be a pretty good reason imo.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Bold is pretty awesome considering his injury history robbing him of much of his athletic ability

Good player on a good contract. We could move him, but it'd have to be a pretty good reason imo.

We have a good reason. McDermott and Snell. Granted they are not at Dunleavy's level, but they need minutes to get there. Dunleavy just isn't good enough to warrant passing on future assets while holding back young players, one of which has potential to be better than him sooner than later, and is already the better outside shooter.

Its going to be a very interesting trade deadline, part of me hopes we stay pat, part of me knows we are best served going forward by acquiring future assets and promoting from our bench.

 

[clonetrooper264]

We have a good reason. McDermott and Snell. Granted they are not at Dunleavy's level, but they need minutes to get there. Dunleavy just isn't good enough to warrant passing on future assets while holding back young players, one of which has potential to be better than him sooner than later, and is already the better outside shooter.

Its going to be a very interesting trade deadline, part of me hopes we stay pat, part of me knows we are best served going forward by acquiring future assets and promoting from our bench.

Personally, I don't think Dunleavy commands much of an asset straight up. Maybe a late 1st...I guess that's good considering how GarPax drafts, but it could very well end up a lateral move. I agree that the younger players should get more minutes, but if you look at winning this season, keeping Dunleavy may be the best move.

 

[RoseMVP1]

We have a good reason. McDermott and Snell. Granted they are not at Dunleavy's level, but they need minutes to get there. Dunleavy just isn't good enough to warrant passing on future assets while holding back young players, one of which has potential to be better than him sooner than later, and is already the better outside shooter.

Its going to be a very interesting trade deadline, part of me hopes we stay pat, part of me knows we are best served going forward by acquiring future assets and promoting from our bench.

You're underestimating Dunleavy's value to this team. If we do win it all this year, best believe he will be a big reason why.

 

[Crystallas]

MDJ gave us a decent discount, so he could try and win one with this team. He didn't give us a discount because he got his market value. That would be a total asshole move to trade a guy who cuts his paycheck almost in half. Getting rid of a guy that produces on the cheap sends really bad signals to other future FAs in the future who want to come here to win.

 

[ChettheJet]

As a veteran Dunleavy rebounds and plays defense at a much higher level than McDermott could and he outshoots Snell every day. What he lacks in athletism he makes up for in experience and he gets or doesn't get calls that rookie and second year player get whistled for all the time. He always plays under control and uses his head. that's not something teams below the Bulls in the standings are going to give up a first round pick for even with the expiring contract but he is exactly what a contending team needs and the Bulls are in a building for next year phase, they've got the chance THIS YEAR so dumping contracts and getting kids minutes are not on the agenda. If they do find themselves with a comfortable 1-2 slot in the East 3/4 of the way through the season them maybe they plug in McDermott for Dunleavy and Snell for Butler and Hinrich a game here and there.

 

[The Hawk]

As a veteran Dunleavy rebounds and plays defense at a much higher level than McDermott could and he outshoots Snell every day. What he lacks in athletism he makes up for in experience and he gets or doesn't get calls that rookie and second year player get whistled for all the time. He always plays under control and uses his head. that's not something teams below the Bulls in the standings are going to give up a first round pick for even with the expiring contract but he is exactly what a contending team needs and the Bulls are in a building for next year phase, they've got the chance THIS YEAR so dumping contracts and getting kids minutes are not on the agenda. If they do find themselves with a comfortable 1-2 slot in the East 3/4 of the way through the season them maybe they plug in McDermott for Dunleavy and Snell for Butler and Hinrich a game here and there.

I agree with your assessment. It is a bit frustrating in that I'd like to see the rookies play more but Thibs is a hard master regarding this and as well as Mirotic played against the Clippers, he'll get limited minutes when Gasol gets back.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Don't get me wrong....I love Mike Dunleavy's game and agree he is the best win right now option at SF on the roster. He knows what Thibs wants as well, and its his second year in defense. I'd also put him ahead of most shooters on the team. Butler, Snell, Mirotic, Rose, Hinrich are all behind him in shot selection and makes. He plays his roll and doesn't waste shots, but will attack if open.

I will have to watch the way defenses treat him....because there is a chance McDermott opens offense for others just with presence before too long.

Dunleavy is not as good as Deng, and McDermott is not good enough to warrant pushing aside Deng, but I'm just not so sure its worth keeping Dunleavy if we can get something good.

Thats why I say we keep him, unless we are getting a late first. But you have to admit if you can have a late first, start McDermott more and use Snell defensively in situations, you can then go offense/defense with SF and that becomes another advantage, where you are improved on either end when you have a chance to sub, but Dunleavy is the better at both.

 

[The Hawk]

Don't get me wrong....I love Mike Dunleavy's game and agree he is the best win right now option at SF on the roster. He knows what Thibs wants as well, and its his second year in defense. I'd also put him ahead of most shooters on the team. Butler, Snell, Mirotic, Rose, Hinrich are all behind him in shot selection and makes. He plays his roll and doesn't waste shots, but will attack if open.

I will have to watch the way defenses treat him....because there is a chance McDermott opens offense for others just with presence before too long.

Dunleavy is not as good as Deng, and McDermott is not good enough to warrant pushing aside Deng, but I'm just not so sure its worth keeping Dunleavy if we can get something good.

Thats why I say we keep him, unless we are getting a late first. But you have to admit if you can have a late first, start McDermott more and use Snell defensively in situations, you can then go offense/defense with SF and that becomes another advantage, where you are improved on either end when you have a chance to sub, but Dunleavy is the better at both.

It'd be silly to trade dunleavy now. The rookies are still by and large unproven and Rose is a china doll. Dunleavy has been solid. He knows his role and plays within the system.