Kris Bryant and the Future (part 2)

[CSF77]

If you call him up and he fails that can be good or bad.

Rizzo was awful in his first stint but started the next season for the Cubs in the minors correcting his flaws before coming to the Cubs in June

or

You could have a Jackson/Vitters type thing and send his career down the tubes. Obviously Bryant is much more talented than those 2, just trying to make a comparison.

It is called adjustments.

Kid comes up. Not much scouting reports. 1 pitcher makes him look foolish. Scouting looks at it and word is spread about holes in his swing. Player goes through slump. (IE famous sophomore slump) year 3 player adjusts back to the league or never overcomes it and ends up a AAA vet then out of the league.

 

[Captain Obvious]

Super 2 only matters if you promote a player early season. Say in May then that year counts towards his clock.

The cut off date means they can start his clock and the current year will not count. IE free service time gained for the club.

I believe Bryant has more to do with his clock starting early and the Cubs getting into increased payroll before they can handle it.

The whole 3B D is lesser is just an excuse and his SO is an excuse. He is leading his league in most stats. Pointing out a flaw is just dumb in view of it.


I've been saying to promote Watkins for a while now. His OBA alone should be playing on this team.

Right now:
Watkins 2B
Lake CF
Rizzo 1B
Castro SS
Valbuena 3B
Ruggiano LF
Schierholtz RF
Catcher

That is what I would be running. They should have let Sweeney rehab naturally. They did not need another bottom of the order LH bat. They already had 2 in Cog and Schierholtz.

Back to Bryant:

I would play him in AAA until the super 2 cut off next year. He is not going to save this season.

I disagree completely with waiting until next year. The Cubs aren't that far off from being a legitimate team. Our run differential tells us that. You bring up Bryant after Super 2 this year and let him get some experience then you have less of a question mark for next year. If he struggles this year, he can start next year in AAA. If he hits, which I think he will, you have a starting 3B for next year.

 

[beckdawg]

So when does super two end?

I disagree with AAA not being a challenge. The past prospects say otherwise



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It varies year to year. However, usually the second or third week of July.

 

[brett05]

I think you don't have an accurate picture of what the majority of pitchers in AAA are like. There are far more journeyman guys than legitimate prospects with big league caliber stuff. The guys there know how to pitch, but that is not what Kris Bryant is going to struggle with (Baez on the other hand...). Seriously here is the list of current ERA leader in PCL. Tell me where the huge step up in quality is coming facing a bunch of late 20s/early 30 somethings that have either had a shot/failed or never will get a shot arms?

does he perhaps not see a highly rated prosoect? sure. but better to face the guys that bounce than hoping to face a guy that will make it. bryant has nothing left to learn in AA. can we agree there?

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[beckdawg]

I think the point dabys is making is that often AA pitchers have better stuff and you'll more commonly see better caliber pitchers in AA. The common logic is that AAA is a higher level and thus better pitching. The reality is more that it's a home for guys who didn't make it in the show their first go around and a lot of 4A pitchers. That's not an absolute certainty. However, the difference between AA and AAA isn't so much talent as it is polish. So, in the case of a pitcher going from AA to AAA you're often talking about similar stuff but someone who either needs more polish with a pitch or has trouble locating a pitch...etc. In the case of hitters, it's plate discipline typically.

In the case of Bryant, in his two AA level stints(AA and the AFL which typically has AA level pitching) Bryant has walked 15.2% and 14.3%. So, while higher polish pitching may walk him less, even if it drops 5% you're still talking about a pretty good 10% rate. The question becomes is the increase in polish enough to raise his K rate. That's harder to answer. Without having something like pitch f/x it's hard to get a sense of how Bryant is doing his damage. Is he feasting on pitches left in the zone where AAA might not have that issue? You could argue that is the problem Baez has had along with his aggressiveness. Is Bryant instead too patient as I and others have argued?

I'm still convinced they will slow play things and give Bryant more time in AA. Yes he's absurd there at the moment but you're talking about what 3 months of play? For one thing, we've seen guys in the majors get hot for 60 or so games and then fall off. So, while it's doubtful that is what will happen, it's possible. Southern league is 138 games. The smokies have played 68 games. That means they've got 70 left. If super two is mid-July you're talking another month you're talking roughly another 27 or so games. If they indeed plan to call him up to the majors, you don't want to just give him 27 in AAA. Typically, you'd probably like for them to see at least 300 PAs in a level. A call up to AAA really would only make sense if they were considering a September call up after the playoffs for AAA are over.

 

[CSF77]

I'm holding to he plays the whole year at Tenn and starts next year at Iowa. After the super 2 he will be promoted depending on his progress.

He was rushed up to AA. This is his first full season in pro ball and he started in AA. Most college players start their first full year in A+.

The reality here is if the Cubs were a good team the sense of urgency would be less. We as fans are looking for a savior.

I think we need to step back from the current team needs and look at it from when he is ready.

Baez should have been called up. He is still on Iowa because he did not perform. If he put up last years production he would be at 2B now.

That is who we should be looking at right now. Him getting into a hot streak will mean something. He is past his super 2 cut off.

 

[dabynsky]

does he perhaps not see a highly rated prosoect? sure. but better to face the guys that bounce than hoping to face a guy that will make it. bryant has nothing left to learn in AA. can we agree there?

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With a bat in his hand? Sure I think he has nothing left to learn in AA, and I think minimal things at best to learn in AAA. The bat I think is ready, but this isn't the AL where he doesn't have to be a complete ballplayer. As I wrote last week I think it is a disservice to him to try to make him learn how to play defense while simultaneously dealing with the biggest jump in talent level between pitching.

 

[nwfisch]

I still don't get the Super 2 garbage.

Isn't it a good problem having to pay elite talent a truckload of money?

 

[brett05]

With a bat in his hand? Sure I think he has nothing left to learn in AA, and I think minimal things at best to learn in AAA. The bat I think is ready, but this isn't the AL where he doesn't have to be a complete ballplayer. As I wrote last week I think it is a disservice to him to try to make him learn how to play defense while simultaneously dealing with the biggest jump in talent level between pitching.

better fields in AAA

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[dabynsky]

I still don't get the Super 2 garbage.

Isn't it a good problem having to pay elite talent a truckload of money?

I think super 2 is less of a concern for the front office, but it does matter. You want any leverage to get Bryant to sign an extension making him wait three plus years for any reason is a hell of amount of leverage. Again I think people are far too cavalier in their attitude to extensions given that Rizzo, Castro, and Singleton extensions. But the reality is that those players had nothing in the bank when they were called up from making shit in the minors (again if you haven't read the Dirk Hayhurst piece on life in the minors do it and it becomes clear why some players are willing to sign these deals now).

Kris Bryant doesn't have that situation with 6 million in the bank. He can gamble on himself reaching his peak and making 300 million as a 29 year old free agent (which is what he would be if brought up this year). So making him live off of less than 20k an extra year and league minimum for another might be the only leverage the Cubs have to keep all Bryant's peak years. Otherwise prepare to vastly overpay those last years or watch him finish his career in NY or LA.

 

[dabynsky]

better fields in AAA

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Sure, but the Southern League is not some fly by night operation either. I don't think the difference is that great, but I can see an argument for moving him to AAA. I just don't see the absolute need for it given what I feel are his areas of development right now.

 

[brett05]

Sure, but the Southern League is not some fly by night operation either. I don't think the difference is that great, but I can see an argument for moving him to AAA. I just don't see the absolute need for it given what I feel are his areas of development right now.

we can agree to disagree

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[nwfisch]

You want any leverage to get Bryant to sign an extension making him wait three plus years for any reason is a hell of amount of leverage.

So making him live off of less than 20k an extra year and league minimum for another might be the only leverage the Cubs have to keep all Bryant's peak years. Otherwise prepare to vastly overpay those last years or watch him finish his career in NY or LA.

Maybe I'm just overly concerned, FWIW I don't believe Bryant is ready for the MLB roster now anyways.

But holding a guy like Bryant, a supposedly elite bat for as much as 3 years to save a few bucks is counter-intuitive to what the Cubs should be doing with their prospects.

Over-payment happens. Most of the current teams that have sustained success have a form of overpayment on their roster.

 

[brett05]

In all honesty, I'd love to have that type of guy in the minors for the Sox that could potentially be our 3b

 

[dabynsky]

Maybe I'm just overly concerned, FWIW I don't believe Bryant is ready for the MLB roster now anyways.

But holding a guy like Bryant, a supposedly elite bat for as much as 3 years to save a few bucks is counter-intuitive to what the Cubs should be doing with their prospects.

Over-payment happens. Most of the current teams that have sustained success have a form of overpayment on their roster.

Sure but that is typically on free agents where you have to overpay them. You can control the situation with Kris Bryant. So why give that up just to placate some fans that are going to be angry no matter what until you start winning?

In all honesty, I'd love to have that type of guy in the minors for the Sox that could potentially be our 3b

He is an exciting prospect. This is the first time in a long time that a Cubs position prospect has so thoroughly dominated an upper minor level like this. I mean Choi's 36 games in AA back in 2000 was impressive (10 HRs, .303/.419/.623), but this is other worldly the numbers Bryant is doing within a year of being drafted.

 

[beckdawg]

But holding a guy like Bryant, a supposedly elite bat for as much as 3 years to save a few bucks is counter-intuitive to what the Cubs should be doing with their prospects.

But it's not just "a few bucks." To use a recent example, Belt hit super two status getting an extra arbitration year. So, instead of making around $500k in his third year of service he signed the typical star level first contract with a team buying out his arbitration. However, because they had an extra year of arbitration, the final year of the deal was $12 mil. So, you can make the argument that super two status cost them $11.5 mil over the 5 years of that deal in extra pay. He would not have got the same total value of that deal had he not been a super two. They essentially roughly estimate what you would receive in arbitration and both sides use those numbers as the negotiation points for the layout of the contract since the player really doesn't have much leverage other than that. In other words, players can't just go to another team. The only way they get more money is if they play better and that doesn't account for the injury possibility which can cost them millions.

Anyways, as I said elsewhere, roughly $12 mil over 5 years is a little over $2 mil or a year which was basically the difference between the money Jackson got from the cubs and the money Sanchez got from the Tigers. I know people believe they should have unlimited funds to spend but that's clearly not the reality of the situation. And in that case "a few bucks" was the difference between Jackson and Sanchez.

That's why this crap is a big deal.

 

[nwfisch]

But it's not just "a few bucks." To use a recent example, Belt hit super two status getting an extra arbitration year. So, instead of making around $500k in his third year of service he signed the typical star level first contract with a team buying out his arbitration. However, because they had an extra year of arbitration, the final year of the deal was $12 mil. So, you can make the argument that super two status cost them $11.5 mil over the 5 years of that deal in extra pay. He would not have got the same total value of that deal had he not been a super two. They essentially roughly estimate what you would receive in arbitration and both sides use those numbers as the negotiation points for the layout of the contract since the player really doesn't have much leverage other than that. In other words, players can't just go to another team. The only way they get more money is if they play better and that doesn't account for the injury possibility which can cost them millions.

Anyways, as I said elsewhere, roughly $12 mil over 5 years is a little over $2 mil or a year which was basically the difference between the money Jackson got from the cubs and the money Sanchez got from the Tigers. I know people believe they should have unlimited funds to spend but that's clearly not the reality of the situation. And in that case "a few bucks" was the difference between Jackson and Sanchez.

That's why this crap is a big deal.

At some point, the Cubs have to take a risk and call up the prospects when ready for MLB hitting and fielding duties. If the prospect is ready to make the adjustments needed to be successful at the MLB level, he should be called up, not held back three years to save millions of dollars for alleged billionaires.

Not only that, I would be willing to wager that if the Cubs make the playoffs with Bryant, they would make a lot more than $12M from the playoff run.

 

[WindyCity]

The thought of Rizzo at 3 and Bryant at 4 is the only thing that gets me through watching losers like Scheirholtz take at bats.

I would push Bryant, some guys just have it and do not need as much time.

 

[dabears253313]

Cubs fans will have to wait another 5 years until Kris Bryant gets called up to play for the Cubs............

 

[TL1961]

I still don't get the Super 2 garbage.

Isn't it a good problem having to pay elite talent a truckload of money?

Losing a year of control / cost containment, especially for a player expected to be a plus player, is not worth 27 games of major league ball in a lost season. Call him up in July.