Kris Bryant expectations

[Bear Pride]

Alcantara will play some third eventually, imho.

So you're suggesting the Cubs put Mendy on the corner? :dunno:

 

[Parade_Rain]

I see it as Bryant/Russell long term. Same issue going on here. I'll bet they are banking on Schwarber to stick at catcher which gives a 2nd LH power bat.



Fowler
Castro
Rizzo
Bryant
Soler
Montero
Baez
Olt

I see that as a line up. SH/ R/L/R/R/L/R/R Olt gives Baez some protection and Soler gives Bryant protection.

Later year Olt traded Russell promoted to 3B

Russell sits on #8 until the end of the year and then they move him up in the order. At that point they have to look at CF also and if they want to retain Fowler or plug Almora. Which even pushes the line up more RH.

At the end of the day it is more about the most productive bats in the line up. Not plugging in a LH bat just to do so.

I am thinking the same about Schwarber. Does that hamper his path coming up as a catcher or are the rumors true that he has really worked hard in the off season behind the plate?

 

[brett05]

Arbitration time? No, that has nothing to do with this. If arbitration was a concern there would be talk of leaving Bryant down to his super 2 date. There isn't. The talk is about getting an extra year of service time by leaving him in AAA for 9 games. That means he'd be eligible to come up as early as 4/17 but with the MLBPA watching closely expect another 4 or 5 games after that. By doing that Bryant becomes a free agent after the 2021 season, not 2020. Despite some posters pointing out that Scott Boras clients don't always elect for free agency after their years of team control, the fact remains that most of them do. So 9 games for a year in his prime and we're even having a debate? It means more than a year of playing time as well. Say in June 2020 the Cubs realize that in 18 months they are bound to lose Bryant to the highest bidder. They'll still have value in him to make a trade. You have to look at Boras clients as if they WILL leave, bonus if they don't. Take a look at the White Sox who are starting the same noises about another Boras client, Carlos Rodon. I doubt you'll see him break camp either. I hope if Kris Bryant is who we think he'll be that he will be a Cub for life, a smart baseball organization needs to have one eye on that outcome and another on the real possibility that he won't be and how to maximize that financially. You asked why the Cubs would treat Bryant as an ordinary business commodity, the answer is they wouldn't because he isn't. He's an extraordinary business commodity.

you keep saying the bold but have not ever shown this where I've shown it as false for the top players

And Rodon will not be kept down like Bryant was. It's not the Whote Sox way. The Sox move players up when they can help the team win

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Maddon is. He spoke at length about how good Olt's ABs have been and how well he is seeing the plate. If the guy could keep hi K rate under 25% and 30 HR he's valuable player, either for the Cubs or someone else. I just care about the value of the asset. Kid a was a blue chip prospect in 2012.

Olt is a bust.

It says something when you go from a blue chip franchise-hype prospect to a 'throw in' in the Garza deal, centered around CJ Edwards.

Its 2015, he doesn't have whats necessary to make it in this league. Tell yourself whatever you got to to make yourself feel better, but you're kidding yourself if you think there's MLB value in a kid who's Japan bound within the next year.

Cut your losses. Move on. Get Bryant his try out.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

you keep saying the bold but have not ever shown this where I've shown it as false for the top players

And Rodon will not be kept down like Bryant was. It's not the Whote Sox way. The Sox move players up when they can help the team win

We'll see about Rodon. It's been widely speculated that they will leave him down for the same period of time as Bryant.

After a quick search of Boras articles I find plenty to back up what I say but I don't have time to crunch numbers. I saw a piece that referenced that 58% of his high performing clients go to other teams. It may or not be true but if it is that's most. A great deal of his clients do that either way. That's what he sells to them and I don't hate the guy for that. That's his job. It's a FO job to know what they're dealing with and to maximize their asset.

 

[Parade_Rain]

So you're suggesting the Cubs put Mendy on the corner? :dunno:

 

[TL1961]

So you're suggesting the Cubs put Mendy on the corner? :dunno:

Now THAT's funny.

 

[brett05]

We'll see about Rodon. It's been widely speculated that they will leave him down for the same period of time as Bryant.

After a quick search of Boras articles I find plenty to back up what I say but I don't have time to crunch numbers. I saw a piece that referenced that 58% of his high performing clients go to other teams. It may or not be true but if it is that's most. A great deal of his clients do that either way. That's what he sells to them and I don't hate the guy for that. That's his job. It's a FO job to know what they're dealing with and to maximize their asset.

Show me the Rodon info

Most players period go to a new team

Show where Boras top guys bolt after rookie fa starts

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Show me the Rodon info

Most players period go to a new team

Show where Boras top guys bolt after rookie fa starts

Honestly I'd prefer not to spend my time digging for data that you'll find a way to dismiss anyway. Honestly you seem to be the only one that thinks that teams don't alter strategy to deal with Boras. I can say for certain that Boras almost always advises his clients against extensions. Boston recently offered Xander Bogaerts a long term deal and it was rejected with Bogaerts and Boras saying they weren't interested in a deal. Your White Sox under Kenny Williams wouldn't even draft Boras clients instead only dealing with him when they picked up players in trade.

As far as Rodon one place for sure it was discussed was on yesterday morning's show on WSCR with Bruce Levine. He made a direct comparison with the two players and thought that both teams would ultimately start both players in the minors for the same reason. Others have speculated on it too. maybe you're right and the White Sox wouldn't do that, but I'm not going to change my mind that a few weeks in exchange for a year of control for a top prospect is not even a choice with Boras as an agent, maybe even if he isn't. It's about managing your assets in a fiscally responsible way. It's clear I'm not going to change my mind and neither are you. I'd leave it at that.

 

[Boobaby1]

Olt is a bust.

It says something when you go from a blue chip franchise-hype prospect to a 'throw in' in the Garza deal, centered around CJ Edwards.

Its 2015, he doesn't have whats necessary to make it in this league. Tell yourself whatever you got to to make yourself feel better, but you're kidding yourself if you think there's MLB value in a kid who's Japan bound within the next year.

Cut your losses. Move on. Get Bryant his try out.

I want to see just a tad bit more before ruling him completely out Pat. I want to see if he can translate anything back into the club after such a small sample size last year. Alcantara and Baez struggled the same, and if Olt were to play a full year, would he be in the range of a Mark Reynolds give or take?

Not that that is great, but a power bat off of the bench, a throw-in in a deal, or a 3rd basemen who can start periodically or come in to play defense has to have some value. No?

 

[Zvbxrpl]

I want to see just a tad bit more before ruling him completely out Pat. I want to see if he can translate anything back into the club after such a small sample size last year. Alcantara and Baez struggled the same, and if Olt were to play a full year, would he be in the range of a Mark Reynolds give or take?

Not that that is great, but a power bat off of the bench, a throw-in in a deal, or a 3rd basemen who can start periodically or come in to play defense has to have some value. No?

I get the need to hope for the best for all players on my team, but some guys just don't live up to expectations. Olt is one of them. He's not the first, he's not the last. I've written him completely off.

I don't exactly think I'll be regretful of that either.

 

[Shawon0Meter]

Didn't exactly find the Boras client info I was looking for but these are a couple of good reads


Here's an interview with Boras talking about good young players signing extensions early
http://www.masslive.com/redsox/index.ssf/2014/06/scott_boras_talks_about_a_long.html

and an article from 2 years ago about how the changing world of contracts could be working against Boras
http://shutdowninning.com/5/post/2013/04/the-changing-world-of-scott-boras.html

 

[Bear Pride]

I get the need to hope for the best for all players on my team, but some guys just don't live up to expectations. Olt is one of them. He's not the first, he's not the last. I've written him completely off.

I don't exactly think I'll be regretful of that either.

Yeah, but it's hard to hit 90 mph fastballs when you can't see. :dunno: He had problems with his eyes that took awhile for the Doctors to figure out it was his allergies drying up his eyes and blurring his vision. Do you think blurred vision might hinder a MLB player?

I'm not making excuses for the guy, but maybe the eyes had something to do with it? It evidently took him several kinds of eye drops to figure out how to properly manage his issue. The fact that he is seeing the ball better due to walking more, maybe you should not give up on him so quick.

It seems logical that after all that, maybe it's taken awhile to get back to where he was. I for one will cut him some more slack as he is looking better this ST.

 

[SilenceS]

He wouldn't be the first prospect to struggle and ultimately turn his career around in the 26-27 year range. I'm not suggesting it should be expected to happen but the fact is he's played well in spring training. And it's not even like he'd need to play good for every game going forward. If he plays really well for 2-3 months and the trade dead line approaches he's going to be an interesting player. I'm sure not every team will believe in the new him but all it takes is one team to buy into him hard. Let's not forget he was a top 50 prospect a few years back. That's not to say again that his spring guarantees anything just that clearly people thought there was talent there. Additonally it's not like there's a lot of 20-25 hr hitting 3B laying around the majors these days especially one capable of playing decent defense.

Many of top 50 have fail. More have failed then made it. I would love for Olt to get some value but I will leave with a portion of an article about last year spring training.

But the spring training stats? Forget ‘em. Last year, Mariners shortstop Brad Miller led all players with a 1.314 OPS in the spring. He went on to post a .653 OPS in the regular season. Justin Verlander threw 20 shutout innings in the Grapefruit League, then suffered through a miserable campaign. White Sox starter Jose Quintana allowed 20 earned runs in 11 innings — a 16.36 ERA — then produced a 3.32 mark in 32 regular-season starts.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/03/spring-training-stats-never-forget-jake-fox-mlb

 

[SilenceS]

Yeah, but it's hard to hit 90 mph fastballs when you can't see. :dunno: He had problems with his eyes that took awhile for the Doctors to figure out it was his allergies drying up his eyes and blurring his vision. Do you think blurred vision might hinder a MLB player?

I'm not making excuses for the guy, but maybe the eyes had something to do with it? It evidently took him several kinds of eye drops to figure out how to properly manage his issue. The fact that he is seeing the ball better due to walking more, maybe you should not give up on him so quick.

It seems logical that after all that, maybe it's taken awhile to get back to where he was. I for one will cut him some more slack as he is looking better this ST.

He had the same strikeout issues before the eyes. He was always more advanced then his league until it caught up to him.

 

[SilenceS]

I want to see just a tad bit more before ruling him completely out Pat. I want to see if he can translate anything back into the club after such a small sample size last year. Alcantara and Baez struggled the same, and if Olt were to play a full year, would he be in the range of a Mark Reynolds give or take?

Not that that is great, but a power bat off of the bench, a throw-in in a deal, or a 3rd basemen who can start periodically or come in to play defense has to have some value. No?

Baez and Alcantara are 3 and 4 years younger.

 

[Bear Pride]

He had the same strikeout issues before the eyes. He was always more advanced then his league until it caught up to him.

Well, I'm no expert on Olt. I'm neither getting too excited about him nor am I ready to write him off, which was my point. I just don't see what the big deal about Olt is. It's a good thing to see him have a little better plate discipline. At best, he will give us some depth at multiple positions while giving the Cubs a little pop off the bench.

 

[brett05]

Honestly I'd prefer not to spend my time digging for data that you'll find a way to dismiss anyway. Honestly you seem to be the only one that thinks that teams don't alter strategy to deal with Boras. I can say for certain that Boras almost always advises his clients against extensions. Boston recently offered Xander Bogaerts a long term deal and it was rejected with Bogaerts and Boras saying they weren't interested in a deal. Your White Sox under Kenny Williams wouldn't even draft Boras clients instead only dealing with him when they picked up players in trade.

Well right now Xander isn't what his spec status said he'd be so I understand both sides of it. That's not Bryant at this stage though.

As far as Rodon one place for sure it was discussed was on yesterday morning's show on WSCR with Bruce Levine. He made a direct comparison with the two players and thought that both teams would ultimately start both players in the minors for the same reason. Others have speculated on it too. maybe you're right and the White Sox wouldn't do that, but I'm not going to change my mind that a few weeks in exchange for a year of control for a top prospect is not even a choice with Boras as an agent, maybe even if he isn't.

For it to be the same Rodon would have to be in the minors the whole season and then part of next season, right? Lots of error here it would seem.

It's about managing your assets in a fiscally responsible way. It's clear I'm not going to change my mind and neither are you. I'd leave it at that.

It's about winning a championship for a team that has money out the ying yang. Come on now. They aren't a cash strapped small market team.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Well, I'm no expert on Olt. I'm neither getting too excited about him nor am I ready to write him off, which was my point. I just don't see what the big deal about Olt is. It's a good thing to see him have a little better plate discipline. At best, he will give us some depth at multiple positions while giving the Cubs a little pop off the bench.

No one should get that excited about Olt but if he can level off his K Rate to around 25%, hit .250 and 25 HR he's valuable to someone. If he can hold down 3B or even just be a quality substitution piece that's what you want. He's made the team, I Bryant is your guy at third than Olt is the backup for he and Rizzo. We should hope that he does as well as he can.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Yeah, but it's hard to hit 90 mph fastballs when you can't see. :dunno: He had problems with his eyes that took awhile for the Doctors to figure out it was his allergies drying up his eyes and blurring his vision. Do you think blurred vision might hinder a MLB player?

I'm not making excuses for the guy, but maybe the eyes had something to do with it? It evidently took him several kinds of eye drops to figure out how to properly manage his issue. The fact that he is seeing the ball better due to walking more, maybe you should not give up on him so quick.

It seems logical that after all that, maybe it's taken awhile to get back to where he was. I for one will cut him some more slack as he is looking better this ST.

If this was year 1 of his eye/injury issues--then yeah--I'd share your sympathies and cut him some slack. But its year 3. He's about to turn 27.

The clock has been ticking, and again--it says something when Texas values you as one of the highly regarded pieces of the future one day and a throw in on an above average rental pitcher the next.

The guy doesn't have it. Get over it.

As Boo said, Mark Reynolds is his best case scenario. Best case. And he's got a long way to go to get there. Cut your losses and sell him to a Japanese team the same way you did LaHair when the league figured out he was another bust.