It's on the rating of the bench we disagree the most. I don't see a lot of teams with the offensive firepower of McDermott, Brooks, and Mirotic when the rotation slims down we will be fine.
The only teams in the east that can match us offensively when we are on all cylinders will be Cleveland, Toronto, and Atlanta. If we avoid matching up with Cleveland I think there is a good chance your prediction of first or second round exit will be wrong.
When you include Moore, snell, Portis, Hinrich we are too deep to play everyone who has a role and I don't know what Hoiberg will do. We are as deep as the Western Juggaurnauts and Cleveland. There are like 6 teams this deep in the NBA.