Luongo Talks Blackhawks Or Panthers As Destinations

[Diehardfan]

First off, this line from the story at Yahoo is gold:





I don't like the move much myself, and I've made that known a few times.

However, he would be an upgrade over Crawford, at least the one we saw in 2011-12. He's been a great goalie for awhile, especially in the regular season.

Still, I'd be worried. Dews likes to use a lot of Zs talking about Luongo being a headcase but I think it's a valid concern.

There are also numbers that worry me with him. Specifically, in the last 3 postseasons, his save % has dropped from his regular season numbers.

2010 - .913 --> .895
2011 - .928 --> .914
2012 - .919 --> .891

He's like the NHL version of pre-2006 Peyton Manning right now. If the Hawks get him, fine. But forgive me if I wouldn't be oozing with confidence with him between the pipes.

But the Hawks winning the Cup with Luongo in net, and maybe even beating Vancouver on the way, could be the biggest :angryfinger: in the history of sports.

LOL, at least in the history of Chicago sports.

But I'm sticking to my guns here.....trading for him is wrong on so many fronts, its ridiculous. I mean he's a Cap train wreck. Didn't we just dump another Cap killer in Campbell? I mean Bowman isn't the best GM right now, do the Hawks need to burden his ass any further with a tight cap. Plus how many goalies past their prime do we have to suffer through, I mean I've had my fill of the Bullins, Huets and Emerys....I'd really like to see them fund a goalie that's at least south of 30. I know the Hawks are in a bad spot with Crawford...I can't say I'm very confident in him myself, but I'd rather hope he turns it around than watch the Hawks put themselves back into Cap hell with an over the hill Luongo.

 

[icehogfan08]

Luongo will get you 40 wins with at least a .915 save %. I'll take a chance on him

 

[dabynsky]

The question is how much is that chance going to cost you? As has been discussed his cap number can be taken care of pretty easily with the current roster, but what does it take to get him from Vancouver?

 

[DMelt36]

Luongo's annual cap hit isn't what concerns me, it's his contract lasting through 2022 that does.

 

[dabynsky]

Luongo's annual cap hit isn't what concerns me, it's his contract lasting through 2022 that does.

But like every long term NHL contract it is front loaded. The final four years of his deal he makes a total of 7 million. You can send him away in the final years of his deal to take care of the cap hit pretty painlessly.

 

[DewsSox79]

The question is how much is that chance going to cost you? As has been discussed his cap number can be taken care of pretty easily with the current roster, but what does it take to get him from Vancouver?

Again. Any team looking into Luongo is in the driver seat. It wont take a lot at all. Luongo and his cap hit being dealt will have the Van front office :fap: ing. There may be a pick, or another player that isnt significant in the deal. Van is desperate and all NHL teams know this.

 

[DewsSox79]

Luongo will get you 40 wins with at least a .915 save %. I'll take a chance on him

all.day.long.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

My only concern is how long he's getting a ridiculous amount of money. If getting Luongo messes up signing Toews or Kane or other core players in the future, I wouldn't do it.

I'm still more interested in getting Bernier than anyone. Not sure if that's even a possibility anymore, but I'd take Bernier over Luongo just because of cap and how long the contract is. Either way, Hawks need either some good defensemen or a different goalie.

 

[DewsSox79]

My only concern is how long he's getting a ridiculous amount of money. If getting Luongo messes up signing Toews or Kane or other core players in the future, I wouldn't do it.

I'm still more interested in getting Bernier than anyone. Not sure if that's even a possibility anymore, but I'd take Bernier over Luongo just because of cap and how long the contract is. Either way, Hawks need either some good defensemen or a different goalie.

bernier is going to cost us a lot as far as picks and players go

 

[TheChicagoFan]

bernier is going to cost us a lot as far as picks and players go

Very true.

 

[Diehardfan]

Luongo will get you 40 wins with at least a .915 save %. I'll take a chance on him

I'm not seeing it. Admittedly, I don't see a whole lot of Canuck games but the games I've seen....he has not impressed. How many times are you gonna watch this team do the same fucking thing over n over? How many goalies with their careers on the way down do you want watch come in here and play? Personally, I've ALREADY seen too damn many....draft someone for God's sake.

 

[icehogfan08]

I'm not seeing it. Admittedly, I don't see a whole lot of Canuck games but the games I've seen....he has not impressed. How many times are you gonna watch this team do the same fucking thing over n over? How many goalies with their careers on the way down do you want watch come in here and play? Personally, I've ALREADY seen too damn many....draft someone for God's sake.

How many of the goalies came here at a certain age tho? With Vancouver Luongo has never finished with lower than 30 wins, no higher than a 2.56 GAA, and his lowest save % is a .919. Florida numbers are a bit different because those just weren't good teams. Maybe the Canucks problem isn't Luongo, but maybe some of the other players on the team? Other than the Sedins in the playoffs this past season no Canuck played worth anything.

 

[DewsSox79]

How can anyone pass on Luongo? The whole "hes on the canucks" and it being a "rivalry" seems to be what is driving this "I dont want luongo" campaign. He is a proven goalie and is a lot better than the tandem of emery and crawford. A change of scenary probably helps.

The other thing that is bothersome is the whole "getting in his head" crap that has been said as well.

the cap hit would be fine if we moved a couple of guys like frolik or sent him down, bolland, hammer etc. this should be a no brainer for hawks fans, but some of you cant let go of the giant meatball in you.

 

[TheChicagoFan]

If Luongo's contract is lets say the next 4 years and not the next 9 or whatever, I say go for it without even thinking about it. But since the contract is so long, I'm not sure how on board I am with it.

Basically my opinion is that if it doesn't happen I won't be pissed, and if it does happen I'll be pleased. Not going to be upset either way.

 

[Captain Iago]

This is exactly what I was I going to write prior to the update yesterday. Luongo's contract is hardly Campbellesque; people claiming it to be so are wrong. It is Hossaesque. The years in conjunction with his age is what ought to worry the organization.

------
He has the 9th highest hit - can you name 8 other goalies with better stats AND health history?

 

[icehogfan08]

I'll take the goalies with the best quality starts in the playoffs the past couple years to use for stats. these are career numbers, not sample sizes.

Tim Thomas has a 70% quality start (QS)
Chris Osgood has 68% QS
Roberto Luongo has 62% QS
Ryan Miller 57% QS
Cam Ward 56% QS
Marc-Andre Fleury 54% QS
Henrik Lundquist 51% QS
Anti Niemi 50% QS
Martin Brodeur 49% QS.

Now these goalies and their goal support on their teams.

Chris Osgood 3.3
Anti Niemi 3.2
Tim Thomas 3.2
Marc Andre Fleury 3.0
Ryan Miller 2.9
Cam Ward 2.7
Roberto Luongo 2.55
Martin Brodeur 2.5
Henrik Lundqvuist 2.4

Vancouver`s numbers are especially surprising since Vancouver has been a top offensive team for much of Luongo`s playoff career.

Now lets look at the goal support that the cup champions got. Goals are per game

Chicago (10) 3.5
Pittsburgh (09) 3.3
Detroit (08) 3.3
Boston (11) 3.2
Carolina (06) 2.9
Anaheim (07) 2.8

Vancouver's most in the playoffs were 2.3 obviously not enough offensive support.

Now lets point out what some of these teams had when they won the cup.

Anaheim had Chris Pronger, Scotty Nieds, Beauchemin to lead the D.
Detroit had Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall
Penguins had Scuderi, Letang, Gill, Gonchar
Hawks had Sebrook, Keith, Campbell

What Norris Trophy candidate does Luongo have helping him? Also if you look around those defenders, they where surrounded by all around good quality defensive d-men.

 

[southern_cross_116]

Not to pick on you DieHardFan -but 'the draft someone already' thing -you can go back in Hawks' history and find a similar situation in the late 80's - and they did draft someone --- Jimmy Waite to be exact. Of course I think that same year they signed as a UFA (away from Washington ...) -Bob Mason (who had previously only been really noteworthy for having been involved in the then longest game in NHL history (I think it went to something like 3 full OT periods in the playoffs)... I think Mason was the loser in that game too iirc...

and then signed as an undrafted free agent out of (I think) the University of North Dakota, a guy by the name of Ed Belfour.

The point being, that goalies aren't that easy to draft (or scout). My other point being - clearly Belfour was the pick of that group.

___

On another note -- ok, well I flipped on this one ... Luongo - Ok, I would go for this one .. I've read people (don't remember where) freaking out about 'CBA, the cap could go down' - yeah true- but the thing with that is that the union won't be bargaining to bring the cap down; that would be a management vs management fight - so I think at worst to expect it to be exactly the same as now -if not having the formula for calculating it be modified, or possibly going up (I would expect the union to be negotiating from the point of view of ditching the cap ... it was put in place by management to curb management from spending too much on its players and by clubs in smaller markets as a means of trying to establish some sort of parity -which I think based upon the results since the last CBA can probably be argued that idea did actually work exactly in that way.

The old holy grail of 'any team can win on any given night' idea that the league had been striving for since at least the 1980's (based upon my recollection of reading stuff like 'The Hockey Digest' ... personally based upon going from 4 straight wins from the Canadiens (in the 70's) to 4 straight wins by the Islanders, to 4 out of 5 being won by Edmonton (and then them chucking another one in 1990 -post-Gretzky) - I think that the league probably was deluded in the 80's =that it had parity ... the results indicated otherwise.... but now, with no SC winners repeating in a number of years- they might well have attained what they were looking for....

so in short, I think the cap stays the same. I think the union would be ok with that- as stability is never really that bad of a thing either when it comes to working conditions.

 

[DewsSox79]

I'll take the goalies with the best quality starts in the playoffs the past couple years to use for stats. these are career numbers, not sample sizes.



Now these goalies and their goal support on their teams.



Vancouver`s numbers are especially surprising since Vancouver has been a top offensive team for much of Luongo`s playoff career.

Now lets look at the goal support that the cup champions got. Goals are per game

Chicago (10) 3.5
Pittsburgh (09) 3.3
Detroit (08) 3.3
Boston (11) 3.2
Carolina (06) 2.9
Anaheim (07) 2.8

Vancouver's most in the playoffs were 2.3 obviously not enough offensive support.

Now lets point out what some of these teams had when they won the cup.

Anaheim had Chris Pronger, Scotty Nieds, Beauchemin to lead the D.
Detroit had Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall
Penguins had Scuderi, Letang, Gill, Gonchar
Hawks had Sebrook, Keith, Campbell

What Norris Trophy candidate does Luongo have helping him? Also if you look around those defenders, they where surrounded by all around good quality defensive d-men.

Very well said. Pretty much dead on. The only way to offset a lack of defensive talent is to look at the LA kings depth on all 4 lines. They had the combo of straight skilled snipers, playmakers, and skilled/physical guys. So if you cant get the defense as you state you have to go depth on all 4 lines. Either way right now the hawks have none, and adding Luongo would help cushion some flaws we have. Look at the defense that VAN had.....I think Luo would be ok with the guys in front as far as his stats go, but as a whole for the entire team we need to upgrade alot.

 

[Diehardfan]

Not to pick on you DieHardFan -but 'the draft someone already' thing -you can go back in Hawks' history and find a similar situation in the late 80's - and they did draft someone --- Jimmy Waite to be exact. Of course I think that same year they signed as a UFA (away from Washington ...) -Bob Mason (who had previously only been really noteworthy for having been involved in the then longest game in NHL history (I think it went to something like 3 full OT periods in the playoffs)... I think Mason was the loser in that game too iirc...

and then signed as an undrafted free agent out of (I think) the University of North Dakota, a guy by the name of Ed Belfour.

The point being, that goalies aren't that easy to draft (or scout). My other point being - clearly Belfour was the pick of that group.

I see what you're saying. I needed to word my statement a bit better...it was supposed to be a shot at the Hawks pathetic attempts at drafting a goalie. I've been a fan since the Glenn Hall days and if you count Crawford(I feel generous), they've only drafted two goalies that can play....Hasak being the other. That is simply not acceptable. These good goalies aren't just magically appearing in the league.....somebody is drafting them, it's just not the Chicago Blackhawks.

 

[Diehardfan]

I'll take the goalies with the best quality starts in the playoffs the past couple years to use for stats. these are career numbers, not sample sizes.



Now these goalies and their goal support on their teams.



Vancouver`s numbers are especially surprising since Vancouver has been a top offensive team for much of Luongo`s playoff career.

Now lets look at the goal support that the cup champions got. Goals are per game

Chicago (10) 3.5
Pittsburgh (09) 3.3
Detroit (08) 3.3
Boston (11) 3.2
Carolina (06) 2.9
Anaheim (07) 2.8

Vancouver's most in the playoffs were 2.3 obviously not enough offensive support.

Now lets point out what some of these teams had when they won the cup.

Anaheim had Chris Pronger, Scotty Nieds, Beauchemin to lead the D.
Detroit had Lidstrom, Rafalski, Kronwall
Penguins had Scuderi, Letang, Gill, Gonchar
Hawks had Sebrook, Keith, Campbell

What Norris Trophy candidate does Luongo have helping him? Also if you look around those defenders, they where surrounded by all around good quality defensive d-men.

Ice, I'm not sure what the parameters are for a quality start but I do know the parameters for winning or losing. And while I agree, Luongo didn't get the best support from both his team or his moronic coach...the bottom line in the playoffs is winning. Just using the 9 goalies you named above, the only goalieon that list that has a lower playoff winning percentage than Luongo is Henrik Lundqvuist. Even Ryan Miller with those marginal Buffalo teams had a better percentage. I won't argue the fact that Luongo will get the Hawks in....its what happens after they get in that scares me. I just can't see making this long term commitment to a guy that's never gotten over the playoff hump.