Matt Garza All-star?

[poodski]

By what merit is he better than Castro, Zambrano, Marmol and Marshall alone?

By DIPS stats he is better than all of them. I am not going to use ERA or wins or any of that to figure it out. He's not much better than Castro but he has been. He's definitely been better than Zambrano. Marmol and Marshall well I mean its debatable I suppose, but the reason I give the nod to Garza is simply because he has pitched more innings than those two combined.

Just because he's 2nd in K/9IP doesn't mean anything.

It means more than you think. Also he isn't giving up many homeruns. Do I think he is out best pitcher? No. Do I think he has been so far? Yes. Dempster is better for sure and has shown that since May 1st.

I have no clue how you think Zambrano has been better though. By just about every metric out there Garza has been better.

The Phillies 4 starters are better than Garza, along with Grienke and Marcum. Lincecum and Jimenez are better easily.

Okay.... but what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

 

[poodski]

I think he meant Castro. He better of...

Castro's defense has really hurt him.

His defense (as well as the entire teams) ironically has also made Garza look worse than he really is.

 

[waldo7239117]

Yeah it has but Garza has been getting hit off so easy this year. Right now, I think the Rays won that trade by a good measure.

 

[nwfisch]

By DIPS stats he is better than all of them. I am not going to use ERA or wins or any of that to figure it out. He's not much better than Castro but he has been. He's definitely been better than Zambrano. Marmol and Marshall well I mean its debatable I suppose, but the reason I give the nod to Garza is simply because he has pitched more innings than those two combined.

You say not to use W/L, but then we go by IP in judging pitchers? Marshall and Marmol are better than Garza at their respective positions. If that makes sense.

It means more than you think. Also he isn't giving up many homeruns. Do I think he is out best pitcher? No. Do I think he has been so far? Yes. Dempster is better for sure and has shown that since May 1st.

I have no clue how you think Zambrano has been better though. By just about every metric out there Garza has been better.

W/L, IP? Z's ERA would be under 4 if he wasn't left in too long against Philly.

Okay.... but what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

What I'm saying is that with those pitchers better than Garza, theres little to no chance he makes the team, nor does he deserve to over Castro.

I don't see how the 2nd best offensive SS in the game should go over an average 3 starter this year.

 

[poodski]

Yeah it has but Garza has been getting hit off so easy this year. Right now, I think the Rays won that trade by a good measure.

Meh his tRA is still only 3.47 which is still by far the best on the team (starters!!!). His FIP is all out of whack but tRA uses batted ball info, so its pretty good.

His BABIP will come down, as will his ERA. Though his FIP will go up.

I'd still take Garza over Castro so far, but by a very slim margin.

 

[waldo7239117]

I take Castro over Garza by a far margin. In all fairness, if I need a win...I'm taking Zambrano over Garza. I have no faith in Garza right now.

 

[poodski]

You say not to use W/L, but then we go by IP in judging pitchers? Marshall and Marmol are better than Garza at their respective positions. If that makes sense.

It does, but it's just not going to mean as much to the overall team. If that makes sense. A reliever will RARELY mean as much to the entire team as a decent starting pitcher.

As far as respective positions I do agree with that. I would rank Marshall and Marmol higher up on the overall reliever list than I would Garza on the overall starter list, but that at least to me is not the discussion at hand.

W/L, IP? Z's ERA would be under 4 if he wasn't left in too long against Philly.

And Garza's has been 3.41 since his third game. He had a rough start (I would argue defensively).

What I'm saying is that with those pitchers better than Garza, theres little to no chance he makes the team, nor does he deserve to over Castro.

I don't see how the 2nd best offensive SS in the game should go over an average 3 starter this year.

I completely agree he doesnt deserve it over Castro (or Marshall and Marmol for that matter). Its like who would you say has been the best player on the White Sox this year? I would say its probably been Konerko, wouldn't you?

I am not sure he deserves a nod to the all star game, and he certainly doesn't deserve one over Alexei. It's all about positioning. Konerko will probably get in because they will take three 1B, but Alexei has been the best SS in the AL, Konerko hasn't been the best 1B.

 

[nwfisch]

It does, but it's just not going to mean as much to the overall team. If that makes sense. A reliever will RARELY mean as much to the entire team as a decent starting pitcher.

As far as respective positions I do agree with that. I would rank Marshall and Marmol higher up on the overall reliever list than I would Garza on the overall starter list, but that at least to me is not the discussion at hand.



And Garza's has been 3.41 since his third game. He had a rough start (I would argue defensively).



I completely agree he doesnt deserve it over Castro (or Marshall and Marmol for that matter). Its like who would you say has been the best player on the White Sox this year? I would say its probably been Konerko, wouldn't you?

I am not sure he deserves a nod to the all star game, and he certainly doesn't deserve one over Alexei. It's all about positioning. Konerko will probably get in because they will take three 1B, but Alexei has been the best SS in the AL, Konerko hasn't been the best 1B.

:clap: :buttrock::elephant: :crazydance: :marshmallow:

Great post.

 

[poodski]

I take Castro over Garza by a far margin. In all fairness, if I need a win...I'm taking Zambrano over Garza. I have no faith in Garza right now.

Z would definitely be third on my list.

Behind Dempster and Garza. Even using ERA Garza has been great since his third start.

I just don't know why people like Zambrano so much. Both have had 8 games with a gamescore above 8 but Garza has pitched in 3 less games.

 

[nwfisch]

Z would definitely be third on my list.

Behind Dempster and Garza. Even using ERA Garza has been great since his third start.

I just don't know why people like Zambrano so much. Both have had 8 games with a gamescore above 8 but Garza has pitched in 3 less games.

I guess my reasoning for Z, as flimsy as it may be, is because Z has pitched in Wrigley for 8 seasons. We haven't seen too much of Garza yet to earn my trust over the incumbents IMO. I would hope Garza is the 2nd starter next season. I <3 Garza, but he has to prove a little more to me yet.

What is a gamescore? I don't get how some of these stats prove that Player X> Player Z?

 

[poodski]

I guess my reasoning for Z, as flimsy as it may be, is because Z has pitched in Wrigley for 8 seasons. We haven't seen too much of Garza yet to earn my trust over the incumbents IMO. I would hope Garza is the 2nd starter next season. I <3 Garza, but he has to prove a little more to me yet.

What is a gamescore? I don't get how some of these stats prove that Player X> Player Z?

Think of Gamescore like a more indepth version of a quality start. A pitcher starts at 50 and is scored as follows:

1. Start with 50 points.
2. Add 1 point for each out recorded, so 3 points for every complete inning pitched.
3. Add 2 points for each inning completed after the 4th.
4. Add 1 point for each strikeout.
5. Subtract 2 points for each hit allowed.
6. Subtract 4 points for each earned run allowed.
7. Subtract 2 points for each unearned run allowed.
8. Subtract 1 point for each walk.

Like Kerry Woods 1998 20 stikeout performance was a 105.

Madison Bumgarners outing the other day was a 2.

Woods is the highest ever (for 9 innings). Not sure what the lowest is.

 

[DewsSox79]

castro is just sick. sure his defense is raw, but cmon now. this dude has been lights out for the cubs. people like to say garza because it makes them feel good about the trade when in their sub conscience they know it was bad and dont want to admit that....1 reason being it is the same people who back jim hendry, so whatever praise they can give out, even using a NON STAT like FIP, they will do. these debates are connected to one another and i find it funny. people that think they are slick, when really they are just transparent.

 

[Rice Cube]

castro is just sick. sure his defense is raw, but cmon now. this dude has been lights out for the cubs. people like to say garza because it makes them feel good about the trade when in their sub conscience they know it was bad and dont want to admit that....1 reason being it is the same people who back jim hendry, so whatever praise they can give out, even using a NON STAT like FIP, they will do. these debates are connected to one another and i find it funny. people that think they are slick, when really they are just transparent.

FIP isn't an official statistic but it is a much better evaluator of pitching performance than ERA or pitcher record. Just thought I'd throw that out there. But as mentioned before, you can't use FIP in a vacuum.

 

[DewsSox79]

FIP isn't an official statistic but it is a much better evaluator of pitching performance than ERA or pitcher record. Just thought I'd throw that out there. But as mentioned before, you can't use FIP in a vacuum.

FIP is the color of and overcast october sky. Sure ERA doesnt tell the whole story, so what do people do? look at a highly flawed metric and decide "well it does show what the defense is like" please. this isnt the accuracy of a obgyn telling you straight to a girls face she is pregnant, it is more or less like using a used pregnancy test from walgreens.

 

[Rice Cube]

FIP is the color of and overcast october sky. Sure ERA doesnt tell the whole story, so what do people do? look at a highly flawed metric and decide "well it does show what the defense is like" please. this isnt the accuracy of a obgyn telling you straight to a girls face she is pregnant, it is more or less like using a used pregnancy test from walgreens.

It's a little more in-depth than that I'm guessing you're familiar with FIP, DIPS and Voros McCracken so I won't go into it, but there's going to be a major hit to your ERA if your shortstop is Yuni Betancourt or Ryan Theriot as opposed to Alexei Ramirez. See what I'm saying?

 

[DewsSox79]

It's a little more in-depth than that I'm guessing you're familiar with FIP, DIPS and Voros McCracken so I won't go into it, but there's going to be a major hit to your ERA if your shortstop is Yuni Betancourt or Ryan Theriot as opposed to Alexei Ramirez. See what I'm saying?

very familiar.

It may take a hit, but the number is not real. an estimate? sure. my it isnt a real number. thats all im trying to say.

 

[Rice Cube]

very familiar.

It may take a hit, but the number is not real. an estimate? sure. my it isnt a real number. thats all im trying to say.

That's fair. I don't think you necessarily use WAR or FIP in a vacuum to determine who your All-Star cast is, but if you are a GM you have to take it into account to figure out how much the signee is worth and what kind of production he can provide for your team.

 

[poodski]

FIP is the color of and overcast october sky. Sure ERA doesnt tell the whole story, so what do people do? look at a highly flawed metric and decide "well it does show what the defense is like" please. this isnt the accuracy of a obgyn telling you straight to a girls face she is pregnant, it is more or less like using a used pregnancy test from walgreens.

If FIP is highly flawed I would hate to know how flawed the pitching stats you use are.

Not sure if that word has been created yet. Crazysupermungototheextremely flawed...... to the tenth degree. That's how much more flawed stats like era are when compared to FIP or tRA.

 

[DewsSox79]

If FIP is highly flawed I would hate to know how flawed the pitching stats you use are.

Not sure if that word has been created yet. Crazysupermungototheextremely flawed...... to the tenth degree. That's how much more flawed stats like era are when compared to FIP or tRA.

you obviously havent studied FIP. It seems you look at FIP as fact and at face value. Cool with me. Just remember FIP is not a stat and is not a true number.

 

[Rice Cube]

you obviously havent studied FIP. It seems you look at FIP as fact and at face value. Cool with me. Just remember FIP is not a stat and is not a true number.

It's not an official statistic and it's not a "true" number in that they have to keep fudging the constant to make it look like ERA, but I think it's a more consistent evaluator of individual pitching talent than ERA is. That's what the GMs should be looking at, if they don't have some other, better proprietary metric.