My round-by-round and overall Bears 2019 draft grades

[Rory Sparrow]

I do not have an issue with Pace's targeted approach, because it worked. There was a study done, trying to find it but I think it was by US Today, that had the Bears ranked 4th in draft success over the last 5 years.

I think in general, not even specific to Pace, you are more rewarded in going to get guys you believe in then you are leaving it up to the variables of the teams around you. We over value mid round picks and how easy they are to recoup.

Nope. The opposite is true. The metrics strongly recommend against trading up. It is much more advantageous to have multiple draft picks than to have a certain draft position. This is just from a few days ago:

The other takeaway is that almost all the picks are more valuable, and that is not a function of small sample size: it’s a function of the rookie wage scale. Players taken in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds are now expected to contribute, because the bar has been lower. If a 4th round pick costs a fraction of what a veteran costs, teams will be more willing to give that player a chance to produce even if he isn’t very good. This artificially inflates AV, since AV is tied to metrics like starts and games played. Teams are giving more starts and snaps to players on rookie contracts because of the rookie salary cap, and that leads to more AV — and distorts the draft value chart a bit.

My overall suspicion is the success of first overall picks from ’08 to ’14 distorts the steepness of the graph — it doesn’t appear like the 2nd and 3rd picks are doing any better than they used to — and that is likely due to small sample size (although the first overall picks since ’14 also seem pretty good so far, too!). And on a relative basis, I am not sure much has changed in the draft value chart world. But I do think it’s fair to acknowledge that draft picks are more valuable than they used to be and my Draft Value Chart implies, and that’s worth thinking about when teams trade multiple picks for one pick.

http://www.footballperspective.com/revisiting-the-draft-value-chart/

 

[Rory Sparrow]

What are you, his attorney?

No, he's my gardener.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

So if the Pats had stayed put, and drafted Montgomery - who would those who say this is a miss, draft at our original position? Because if your giving it a C grade, then you must have A grades that you personally liked - would be interesting to hear who at that point, with the players left, others (who don't like the pick) would have taken.

For me, he seems to be a well liked pick by 'experts' on various media platforms, and most say they were surprised that he was still on the board in the third - was clearly. a position of need, and he fits the type of player Nagy likes. So I struggle too see a) how it's such a bad pick in the third, b) why it's only on Pace when Nagy clearly states that he loves the players skill set and intangibles and c) there were no superstars waiting just below to be scooped up that anyone is talking about.

The Trubisky/Mahomes analogies are clearly revisionist - I saw no boards that had Mahomes in the top three. Bit like saying we passed on Brady and how bad are we - when every team including the Pats passed.

So who did we miss that made Monty a C?? Not a criticism, just genuinely interested

You traded up to take a RB in a "meh" RB class. Thought that was clear since, 1) it already happened and 2) I outlined it specifically in my OP?

Already expressed my disdain for "experts" on various media platforms. To answer your 2nd paragraph questions, its a) C grade does not mean bad pick on my/a grading scale...it's average b) I can't split team draft grades between HC and GM, that would be nonsense...if the HC actually gets a grade, then Pace should just resign (which is a discussion we already had in Pace's first years), c) yes, probably unlikely that obvious superstars aren't waiting for you in the 3rd round, so by that logic, every 3rd round pick should be an A or B grade.

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

No, he's my gardener.

Yeah but remember the camera ADDS ten pounds ...

 

[Chicago Staleys]

You cared enough to post yet another Special person meme, fuckface.

That wasn’t nice!

 

[Bearly]

I think we'll all need to wait for any proof. I find op

How about "smaller Matt Forte" as a comparison?

Better but Forte wasn't as intentionally physical. His size and speed more than made up for it but he was a tall RB that ran tall. High center of gravity back. Why he wasn't a great short yardage back but often led the league in 20 yard runs. Can't have a jump cut with a forward lean like Howard. Montgomery is 5'10" with short legs and while he can jump cut, maintains a low center of gravity but his mass plus short legs affects his top speed. The 'like this RB' thing rarely succeeds because the good ones are all rather unique.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

I had Montgomery as my #2 or 1B RB in this class. I'm a big fan, but your opinion is very viable. This wasn't a good class. Montgomery isn't the typical RB you trade up for, because he doesn't have dynamic traits. That being said, I think the dropoff in this class was huge. The top 4, were way ahead for me, especially for the Bears who "needed" a potential #1 back. I thought Singletary was too small, and his lack of size and speed was a huge red flag to me. Harris, the Patriots pick, to me was a perfect picture of mediocrity, but he was really the only back outside of the top 4, IMO that had a preferable size/speed/versatility combination. So, waiting for a RB never appealed to me at all.

As for the whole, Belichick thing.....I think his recent drafting is vastly overrated. He's obviously a genius X and O coach, and an amazing talent evaluator overall, but he only got 1 contributor in 2018 in Michel (though Wynn and Bentley should start this year). He got Wise, but nothing else out of 4 picks in 2017. 3 starters drafted combined in the last 3 drafts. There will probably be 2-4 more in 2019, so maybe 6-7 in 4 years. As a comparison, Pace has pulled 3 starters in EACH of his last 3 drafts. Granted, he's needed to do so more than Belichick, but Pace is no slouch to be "outsmarted" on draft day.

I had Montgomery as my #6 RB in this class. He was clearly an overdraft.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Not entirely relevant, but Forte was an unreal workhorse at Tulane. His senior year numbers were:

361-2127-5.9-23, 32-282-8.8

Montgomery's last year: 259-1216-4.7-13, 22-157-7.1


It was fortuitous that the Bears got Forte in the middle of the 2nd round. That year, FIVE RBs went in the 1st round, and Forte ended up with more career rushing yards than any of them.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Forte was my #1 rated RB that year.

 

[FirstTimer]

Not entirely relevant, but Forte was an unreal workhorse at Tulane. His senior year numbers were:

361-2127-5.9-23, 32-282-8.8

Montgomery's last year: 259-1216-4.7-13, 22-157-7.1


It was fortuitous that the Bears got Forte in the middle of the 2nd round. That year, FIVE RBs went in the 1st round, and Forte ended up with more career rushing yards than any of them.

That was a really good RB class. Forte, CJ 2k, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall(pre-injury), Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles

 

[Rory Sparrow]

That was a really good RB class. Forte, CJ 2k, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall(pre-injury), Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles

The opposite of this year's RB class (?)

 

[KennyH]

You traded up to take a RB in a "meh" RB class. Thought that was clear since, 1) it already happened and 2) I outlined it specifically in my OP?

Already expressed my disdain for "experts" on various media platforms. To answer your 2nd paragraph questions, its a) C grade does not mean bad pick on my/a grading scale...it's average b) I can't split team draft grades between HC and GM, that would be nonsense...if the HC actually gets a grade, then Pace should just resign (which is a discussion we already had in Pace's first years), c) yes, probably unlikely that obvious superstars aren't waiting for you in the 3rd round, so by that logic, every 3rd round pick should be an A or B grade.

So my question remains - if the move up doesn't happen and the Pats take Monty, who would you say Pace should have selected? I think it's interesting to watch comparisons over the season, and, of course, it's just too easy to say 'bad pick' or 'over reach' without at least coming up with who you think was an obvious miss. I mean sure, there is absolutely guaranteed to be a dozen players who outperform Montgomery in the lower picks right through to UDFA's and they will be easy to see in hindsight - but right now, I'm interested in who you think was a miss or to put it in the positive, who would have been a better player available at that point.

 

[Sculpt]

3rd round: RB David Montgomery, ISU

First and foremost, #calledit. Second, this falls in line with the Pace MO of identify biggest weakness area, target player, acquire player. One thing that justifies Pace’s move is that the Bills took Devin Singletary right after the Bears picked Montgomery, so its possible that the Bills would have taken Montgomery prior to the Bears #87 pick. That said, trading up to get a RB not named Sanders or Henderson is a bit of a reach, and the Patriots ended up with Bama RB Damien Harris at #87, who very easily could be superior to Montgomery.

Montgomery is already a polarizing figure…detractors say he is Jordan Howard 2.0 (assuming it’s the 3.7 YPC Howard), believers say his skillset is similar to Kareem Hunt’s (LOL). Wow. Having watched Mongtomery a little bit, I’d say he’s much closer to Howard than Kareem Hunt, but neither is a good comparison.

I don’t think Montgomery will be an individual threat…he’ll get his yards within Nagy’s system when Nagy needs a ball carrier. Defenses won’t gameplan for Montgomery, they will breathe a sigh of relief when he gets the ball instead of a dangerous Cohen or Trubisky dropping back.

Grade: C-



4th round: WR Riley Ridley, UGA

Interesting that Pace went with a blue-chip program player. This could be like an “Eddie Jackson pick”, with a talented player falling to the middle rounds for whatever reason (I assume lack of speed and arrest had something to do with it). His college stats are garbage, he never even came close to having a 100-yard game, and he’s very small to be a starting ‘possession’ WR in the NFL. Not sure if Nagy’s offense wants possession guys in the slot, so this might not even be the ostensible “system fit” that everyone seems to talk about. I would have liked this pick a lot more if it took place toward the end of the draft.

Grade: C-



6th round: CB Duke Shelley, KSU

Who doesn’t love DBs from the Big12, amirite? Was originally projected as an UDFA, but had a strong pro day, which I guess wowed Ryan Pace enough to take him in the 6th round. Undersized CB who missed half of his senior season with a toe injury. I can only assume that Shelley was very impressive in his interview, because I’m not seeing much else here. WR Kelvin Harmon of NC ST was taken right after, and his college resume is much better than Ridley’s. Hmm.

Grade: F



7th round: RB Kerrith Whyte Jr, FAU

Did Pace think he was drafting the other FAU RB…like when Bill Tobin drafted the ‘wrong’ Darren Lewis back in the 90’s? Joking aside, this is really the only pick that says “Nagy guy”. White has the potential to be a matchup problem moreso than the glut of other skill position players Pace has brought in this offseason. I assume Patterson is the KR, and White didn’t return punts in college, so I’m not sure what White can add to the Bears return game. I guess we’ll see if he makes the team first, then go from there.

Grade: C+



7th round: CB Stephen Denmark, Valdosta St.

From what I’ve read, Denmark graded out much higher than Shelley, and that is even with the red flag assessment of “the tape is rough”. Needs time to develop, which he could get on the Bears. Seems to fit what the Bears are trying to do…not sure if Denmark will be moved to S to take over when Dix leaves. I wonder if during the upcoming season we will rhetorically ask ourselves “what if Pace drafted a kicker in the 7th round?”, forgetting that the only thing everyone in the media agreed upon was that the Bears DEFINITELY shouldn’t ‘waste’ a draft pick on a kicker.

Grade: C



Overall Grade: C-

Really enjoyed reading your OP! Good stuff!

In general I appreciate your assessments, but disagree with the grades. I've only watched tape on Monty and Whyte, so far. I appreciate the standard NFL.com draft assessments... so my comment is based on that for Ridley, Shelley, Denmark.

In regards to Monty, I've watched a fair amount of tape, and I really like this pick. What I see from Monty is intelligence. I think we'll see his ability to improve and adapt. He's really a fine RB technician, along with tremendous instincts and balance. It's clear he doesn't have breakaway speed, but that's hardly what we think of when we think of RB artists. I think he really has excellent vision and effective quickness, to go along with inspired play, determination and a fairly impressive all-purpose array of RB skills, you name it, also receiving, blocking.

Just as a fun fact, he also used to be a QB. And while he doesn't have the scat moves of Walter Payton, I think Monty is obviously a pursuer of improvement and skill, and will be a very effective RB, getting those first downs, rather than the occasion 50 yard TD runs.

Whyte, I'd just say I think is a great value for a 7th pick. He doesn't just have speed, he's got some moves and can catch on the run. And agan his top line speed is intriguing. I'm a bit puzzled at the low grade for a 7th pick.

 

[TL1961]

If a GM trades up to get the right guy, I couldn't give two shits what the rest of the RB class looks like.

 

[Starion]

For those blasting Montgomery for being "slow", "unathletic", and without breakaway speed", rarely if ever is this showing up in articles about him for some reason...

DM later dropped his 40 to a 4.57 at his pro day...faster than Kareem Hunt's 40. Their measurables are nearly dead even otherwise. Nobody complaining about Hunt's speed/ability.

Lemme ASSK you this:
Would you not trade up a few spots in the 3rd for a starter with decent shot at even 3/4 Hunt production in this offense?

 

[Outlaw Josey Cutler]

Lemme ASSK you this:
Would you not trade up a few spots in the 3rd for a starter with decent shot at even 3/4 Hunt production in this offense?

View attachment 1545

Not really fair.

The question cannot logically be answered since there would be other options available which are complete unknowns.

Would I trade up in the 3rd for a decent shot at even a 75% Hunt? (assuming you have pre-determined Mont's floor there)

I can't answer that because if I stay put I would have a decent shot at some other comp with a different floor and different ceiling.

But this pulls at the heart of the debate on GMs and moves. If I knew enough to consistently assure the best moves for the highest ceilings then i would BE a freaking GM.

It is not disingenuous to reflect on IF a real GM made a good move or not while simultaneously being self-aware enough to already know that I have no idea what I would do in the same scenario.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

So my question remains - if the move up doesn't happen and the Pats take Monty, who would you say Pace should have selected? I think it's interesting to watch comparisons over the season, and, of course, it's just too easy to say 'bad pick' or 'over reach' without at least coming up with who you think was an obvious miss. I mean sure, there is absolutely guaranteed to be a dozen players who outperform Montgomery in the lower picks right through to UDFA's and they will be easy to see in hindsight - but right now, I'm interested in who you think was a miss or to put it in the positive, who would have been a better player available at that point.

Yeah, its so easy to say 'bad pick' when I've had to "defend" myself to you saying that it wasn't a 'bad pick'. I'm not sure how to answer your question, because I'm not sure why it's being directed at me. I already addressed your issues in Post #1.

If Pace was intent on trading up, he could have traded up two more spots and gotten Darrell Henderson of Memphis, as I said almost verbatim in Post #1. Miles Sanders went toward the end of Round 2, so perhaps that was too far out of reach for Pace, but Henderson and Sanders would have 'moved the needle' for me as, again, I said almost verbatim in Post #1. Montgomery appears to be 'competent' IMO. Again, I could be way off and Montgomery ends up being the next Matt Forte. I'm just giving my opinion.

I'm not understanding your continued lack of comprehension. I hope the above posting makes my original point clearer to you.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Whyte, I'd just say I think is a great value for a 7th pick. He doesn't just have speed, he's got some moves and can catch on the run. And agan his top line speed is intriguing. I'm a bit puzzled at the low grade for a 7th pick.

C+ isn't a low grade. Its slightly above average. It would have been higher had Whyte been an accomplished punt returner in college, but he never was a PR. I thought Patterson was obviously the Bears KR, because he led the league and that's his prime value. I thought if the Bears wanted to use Cohen more on offense and lessen his PR duties, then having a guy who was a PR in college would be an asset. Whyte doesn't really fill any need on the Bears, and he is just another skill position camp body at this point.

 

[Rory Sparrow]

Would you not trade up a few spots in the 3rd for a starter with decent shot at even 3/4 Hunt production in this offense?

Is that 3/4 Hunt production over 8 games, or 16?

 

[HeHateMe]

Is that 3/4 Hunt production over 8 games, or 16?

3.7 yards per carry.