Blair has no knees anymore. His shelf life as a decent player might be done. He can rebound but he cannot guard LeBron at the 4 because he is too slow. The Red Rocket is too slow and would get outworked by LeBron on the glass (the only way I see Bonner being effective is against line-ups where Miami has 2 true bigs on the floor to keep Miami's defense stretched). Splitter can rebound but LeBron would pull him too far away from the rim if he tried to guard him out there. His only choice would be too give LeBron wide open 18-footers all day which are pretty much money for LeBron at this point. Plus, Splitter is also slow-footed guarding LeBron. Diaw is not as slow-footed but still too slow to guard LeBron. He doesn't really stretch the floor with his jump-shot either and would not have a discernible rebounding advantage head-to-head against LeBron provided that the Heat go small. Duncan, needless to say, cannot guard LeBron one-on-one because he is needed near the basket to provide shot-blocking and rebounding.
Tony Parker is a monster offensively but he is no George Hill on defense. The match-up between Chalmers and Parker isn't as lop-sided as it would have been just a year ago or so. Chalmers has really improved as an all-around player. But who wouldn't playing with James and Wade? The X-factor is bench play and what adjustments each coach makes. If San Antonio forces Miami to play big then that would take a lot out of what Miami has going for them to give them an offensive advantage. But if you put in a lot of Andersen/Haslem, then that really negates the advantage San Antonio would have on the glass and on D.
This series might come down to what Manu and Ray can produce off of the bench for their respective teams.
Guess I missed the memo on Blair's knees finally catching up to him. Fair enough.
The thing about assuming Miami goes small is that Indiana was able to force them to play big by completely dominating them inside. It's not hard to imagine Duncan simply overpowering Bosh down low, especially if he's the only big on the floor. If they have Splitter on the floor as well, they should be able to dominate the glass, and I would think that Splitter could score on Battier in the paint despite not being quite as good a post player as West or Hibbert. If the Spurs force Miami to go big, then that plays into their favor. If Indiana can force Miami to 7 games by playing big, I don't see why San Antonio, who basically have everything the Pacers don't (knock down 3pt shooter, good bench play, consistent backcourt production), can't do the same.
That being said, I think San Antonio can pull off a small ball lineup. Perhaps Parker, Ginobili, Green, Leonard, and Duncan would be able to go up against Wade, Allen, Battier, Lebron, and Bosh without losing too much ground, but that clearly favors Miami. At the end of the day, forcing Miami to go big is what SA wants to do, and is what they should try to do. I trust SA's bench far more than Indiana's bench, and I think that they'd do fine against any lineup without Lebron in it.
I also disagree with Birdman and Haslem negating SA's advantage on the boards. They played against Hibbert and West all series and didn't get a rebounding advantage ever. I can't see that changing. They could end up getting some key baskets and rebounds (like Haslem's ridiculous game 3, or Birdman not missing a shot for almost the whole series), but they don't by any means negate the Spurs rebounding advantage.