TL1961
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I just don't see Trey Lance getting to the NFL and becoming accurate for the first time.
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0 Int says he doesn't make the bad mistake throws and stays with-in himself.
Allen was not accurate and is now throwing ropes/lasers.
TL1961
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Upside based on physical attributes, such as running ability, versus actual QB play.
The inaccurate guy who hasn't faced any real competition has a higher upside than the guy who excelled versus top notch competition Day One? Upside = inaccurate but looks like an athlete?
They're not running track. They're playing NFL QB.
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I don't think Jones will make it, but I think he starts out near the top, especially if he lands in San Fran.
I will make a solid, bold, accurate prediction.
Garroppolo and Jones together as your #1, #2, will lead to your seeing your #3 before seasons end due to injury.
rawdawg
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Not right away, but there are definitely some things mechanically you could work on with him to get him to be more accurate. It happened with Josh Allen in his 3rd year, the hope is it'd take a similar time frame for Lance. I mean, even Lamar Jackson completed 66% in his first full season starting (and won MVP).
The hope is similar with Lance. Mix in some easy, schemed open throws like those teams did (and Bears did with Mitch late this year). Lance already has a good track record of not throwing the ball to the other team, so if he can protect the ball, make the easy completions, and then add 600-700 yards on the ground and be a monster in short yardage and the redzone, there's no reason a team can''t win 9-11 games with him in a ball-control offense, even as a rookie IMO. Hell, Saints even won games with Taysom Hill. Won't last long-term if Lance doesn't get more accurate but I trust he can. His numbers at 19 years old were impressive and show coachability.
Speed
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I can see the Josh Allen like intrigue and upside with Lance, but Allen was running for his life a lot more than Lance. Just something that gives me that little bit of the benefit of the doubt for why Allen's mechanics/accuracy was so wonky, and I was not an Allen fan in the least. Whereas Lance played for essentially the Alabama of that level. That said would love a move for either Fields or Lance, it would at least give us some light at the end of the tunnel.
Enasic
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Lance is such a difficult evaluation at a position when even there's a ton of tape, it's extremely difficult to project. I think Lance could be really good. Ideally, it's a Mahomes type situation where he could sit a year and learn the NFL game. If he was there at #20, I'd love the pick. If the Bears traded up into the #10-ish territory, I wouldn't be mad at it. At the very least, he would come in, and be the most talented QB the Bears have ever had. Cutty had a ton of traits, but I think Lance is more dynamic. Now, if that translates agains NFL competition and if he could process NFL defenses, I have no idea. But if the coaching staff and Flip especially think he has it, I wouldn't be mad at giving up a little extra draft capital to get him.
aeronaut
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This year's first and third, and next year's first was the formula that KC used up to get Mahomes, and Houston to get Watson, both about 17 picks up. 17 picks up would get us to 3, so that aint' happening, and it looks like the cost to trade up has gone up (thanks a ton, SF).
Still, it's all about the deal you can make. Maybe our first this year, and first and second next year would be good, so we can fill the OT hole and get a WR/CB in 3 before we fall off the cliff to round 5 and the dregs. We'd still be better off next year than Seattle is this year, with 3 picks total, first in the 3rd round. With a 1 and 2 next year, we could ask for a 4 back and give a 6th or two this year, maybe. We'll see what happens.
aeronaut
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Ah, you young'uns. Forgot about that Sid Luckman guy did you? He, Ed Brown, and Otto Graham will probably be 1-2-3 in yards per completion (career) for qualifying quarterbacks for all time, kinda like Cy Young's 500+ wins as a pitcher. (They named the award for best pitcher after him for a reason.) Four NFL championships, and a great 12 year career during the Bears golden era. And he's currently tied with Mahomes for #2 on the yards per attempt category (career), just trailing Graham.
(I'm not that old, Luckman retired well before I was born. Still, had to play the part, for comedy value if nothing else.)
Sid Luckman - Wikipedia
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Sculpt
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I question whether the Panthers think Sam Darnold is better than Trey Lance. I kind of doubt it.
I think some QBs get better with every game, even rookie NFL games.
I don't know that the Bears 2021 OL will be so bad it would ruin a rookie QB. PFF ranked the Bears OL 20th, but it notes Whitehair improved and Daniels will be back from injury, which I don't think is reason enough by itself to sit Lance all year. And that reason would be all year, because you don't believe the OL will add better OL players during the year.
Plus, if Pace and Nagy think their jobs are in jeopardy, and I think they do, I think they will open up the competition and may play Lance. Pace/Fox started Trubisky Game 5 of his rookie year.
It's generally good policy to let a rookie QB sit. Buy not in all cases.
I think some QBs get better with every game, even rookie NFL games.
I don't know that the Bears 2021 OL will be so bad it would ruin a rookie QB. PFF ranked the Bears OL 20th, but it notes Whitehair improved and Daniels will be back from injury, which I don't think is reason enough by itself to sit Lance all year. And that reason would be all year, because you don't believe the OL will add better OL players during the year.
Plus, if Pace and Nagy think their jobs are in jeopardy, and I think they do, I think they will open up the competition and may play Lance. Pace/Fox started Trubisky Game 5 of his rookie year.