Off season F/A

[beckdawg]

So, I just saw the cubs picked up Mat Gamel off waivers the other day. I think he's mildly interesting. He was ranked 34th on baseball america's 2008 list of prospects but has largely been sidelined by injuries. He's had 2 ACL tears so he's far from a sure thing but he can play 1B and 3B. As recently as 2011 he hit 28 HRs and 96 RBIs with a .310 average in AAA. At the very least, he's an interesting platoon type at 3B especially when you consider the void at 3B in FA. And even if Baez comes up and ultimately takes 3B from him(or Bryant/Olt for that matter) he's an interesting option off the bench if he can stay healthy.

 

[CSF77]

I read it and I thought Ian Stewart part Deux.

 

[beckdawg]

I read it and I thought Ian Stewart part Deux.

Maybe but what do they have to lose? They gave up nothing to get him other than a spot on the 40 man roster. At the very least he's competition at 3B which has been very underwhelming. The ended up getting half way decent play out of a 3 man platoon but I'm not sure you can count on that going forward. Also, I'm frankly happy they are taking a chance on some injured but talented players because they really have nothing to lose in most cases. Even if the odds are say 1 in 20 of them working out, if they do it puts the cubs that much closer.

 

[CSF77]

I'm going to do some research into next years comitments today. This move is just like most of the dumpster diving Jed does.

 

[Boobaby1]

U lack faith in the motivations at the worlds biggest bar.

I know Wrigley is going to draw "X" amount of people, but the fact remains that attendance has dropped substantially. I know they have season ticket holders too, but even with tickets already sold, people were still not going to games, and when they don't go to the games they don't buy concessions and spend money.

Theo is going to somehow market what he is selling to the fans. That in my opinion and I hope it comes to fruition is to hire Girardi. 5 million is expensive for a manager, but it is cheap these days for a free agent that buys a little more time for Cubs fans who are growing more and more impatient.

Also, if Rickett's wants to pay off his debt faster, one good way to do it is to put a good product on the field.

 

[CSF77]

Also, if Rickett's wants to pay off his debt faster, one good way to do it is to put a good product on the field.

They have been above the MLB avg just about every year sense 1984.

2005: 3,123,215 avg: 2,598,741
2006: 3,252,462 avg: 2,756,384
2007: 3,300,200 avg: 2,755,082
2008: 3,168,859 avg: 2,571,627
2009: 3,062,973 avg 2,563,111
2011: 3,017,966 avg 2,547,018
2012: 2,882,756 avg 2,592,218
2013: 2,642,682


This is the first year that they have dropped to the league avg. even then the ranked #12 on a 90 loss team.

 

[CSF77]

Opening Day payrolls
(Major League contracts plus pro-rated signing bonuses):
2013: $106,837,810
2012: $109,316,000
2011: $134,004,000
2010: $144,359,000
2009: $134,809,000
2008: $118,345,833
2007: $ 99,670,332
2006: $ 94,424,499
2005: $ 87,032,933
2004: $ 90,560,000
2003: $ 79,868,333
2002: $ 75,690,833
2001: $ 64,715,833
2000: $ 62,100,000


Commitments to 2014: 48,260,000

Alfonso Soriano 14 mil
Edwin Jackson 13 mil
Starlin Castro 5,857,000
Carlos Villanueva 5,000,000
Kyuji Fujikawa 4,500,000
Jorge Soler 2,667,000
Anthony Rizzo 1,536,000
Gerardo Concepcion 1,200,000
Scott Hairston 500,000

ARB Case est:

Jeff Samardzija (4.028): $4.9MM
Nate Schierholtz (5.078): $3.8MM
Travis Wood (3.004): $3.6MM
Darwin Barney (3.053): $2.1MM
Daniel Bard (3.079): $1.8625MM
James Russell (4.000): $1.7MM
Luis Valbuena (3.148): $1.5MM
Pedro Strop (2.156, Super Two): $1MM
Donnie Murphy (4.043): $1MM

$21.5MM


Close to 70 mil in comitments.
2 on other teams
2 in the minors
1 on the DL through out the year. (total loss)

I can see them adding 30 mil in contract.
They would have to pull trades to do more.

 

[CSF77]

that only covers 13 of the 25 man roster. so 12 players for 30 mil.

2014 league min will be 500k.

So at replacement value of 500k each 12 players would cost: 6 mil.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm going to do some research into next years comitments today. This move is just like most of the dumpster diving Jed does.

I don't really think it's that big of a deal. Essentially he seems to be replacing Ransom who based on your list above doesn't appear likely back. Personally I have no issue with this type of move. Jed is basically filling out bench player roles or a platoon role. You really shouldn't be spending much money for either of those cases. Plus, if you're right about them having $30 mil to spend then they will need every penny.

With that being said, I think they will have at least $40 mil to spend. They had $40 mil last off season and shed Garza, Soriano(part of his deal anyways) and Marmol not to mention what they saved on Feldman and Dejesus. So, I'm guessing their budget is higher than you think.

 

[CSF77]

Essentially he seems to be replacing Ransom who based on your list above doesn't appear likely back.

Ransom was a RH bat and he was replaced by Murphy already.

He is a option for a LH 3B which could mean a cheaper option than Valbuena's arb case.

 

[CSF77]

For a 100 mil budget (not payroll)

LF: Lake and LH platoon partner.
CF: Open
RF: Schierholtz and either Vitters or Olt on the short end.

3B: Valbuena/Murphy
SS: Castro
2B: Watkins/Barney It is that time.
1B: Rizzo
C: Castillo and Boscan (for now)

13 players here. LF and CF are glaring spots for upg.

Staff:

Shark
Wood
Jackson
Arretta
Open

Pen
Strop (CL)
Bard (SU)
Russell (SU)
Grimm
Villanueva
Cabrara
Rosscup


This takes up 3.5 mil of the 30 mil est. left

open spots SP/LF platton/CF for 26.6 mil

I've said this before:

LF McLouth 5 mil
CF: Byrd 7.5 mil
12.5 mil

SP: can spend 17.5 mil on an ace.

That is what they could do right now.

 

[dabynsky]

After two ACL surgeries, quite a few question Mat Gamel's ability to be more than a 1B/DH. I am hoping that if he can hit that he is also capable of standing in LF, but I am guessing his days at 3B are over.

 

[CSF77]

After two ACL surgeries, quite a few question Mat Gamel's ability to be more than a 1B/DH. I am hoping that if he can hit that he is also capable of standing in LF, but I am guessing his days at 3B are over.

I don't see how he is better than Sweeney or Bog to be honest.

 

[dabynsky]

I don't see how he is better than Sweeney or Bog to be honest.

Defensively? Of course not, but he has more power than either of them. Question is does he hit enough at the big league level to make that difference mean enough to be better than those two.

 

[CSF77]

Another option:

David Murphy LH batter F/A. Made 5,775,000 in arb 3. .275/.337/.441 Around 15 HR's on avg in 500 AB's per year.

That is where they are at right now. I believe they can get this production out of Sweeney or Bog over a full year for less cost.


Nate should cost in the 5 mil range.
Career stats: .250/.334/.418 He has walked over 10% of the time which is desirable under this management. 350 out of 3118 career AB's. came off a 30 SB year.

I envisioned B.Jaxx to turn out like McLouth but he fell short. Still IMO a solid #2 hitter.

 

[CSF77]

Defensively? Of course not, but he has more power than either of them. Question is does he hit enough at the big league level to make that difference mean enough to be better than those two.

toss him against the wall and stick? They have enough of that type going on. They need proven players.

Shoot I would classify Olt in the same boat at this point. B.Jaxx also. All were very good at one point.

 

[brett05]

Trust me payroll will react after a drop in season ticket sales. This year I bet that they are banking on firing Dale and Baez pending will give more season ticket sales. What I do not want to see is another knee jerk reaction by ownership and sign another Jackson.

They might be but do you really think firing Dale has sold a single season ticket? Or that Baez might play sometime next year? (fior the record, if Baez becomes a great player he'll sell tickets)

 

[CSF77]

I believe Baez will play next year. Not at SS though unless the next manager decides he wants to move Castro to CF to cut on errors and they sign a 1 year deal with a glove man while they take extra time with Baez to focus up his glove work. Something like that is not likely with the lack of middle of the order power. With the constraints with payroll I expect Baez up in a less demanding spot on the team. Like LF as the did with Lake just to get his bat up here

 

[beckdawg]

toss him against the wall and stick? They have enough of that type going on. They need proven players.

Shoot I would classify Olt in the same boat at this point. B.Jaxx also. All were very good at one point.

Problem is they've already said they don't plan to spend much(guessing ownership's decision). You don't get proven players cheap unless they have injury concerns and then they are back to being unproven. So, you have to give guys who make seem like a gamble a chance. If Gamel stays healthy he's hit at least in the minors. Plus if they send him out there and he plays well in what I assume will be a platoon some where you're possibly going to deal him at the deadline anyways like they almost did with Schierholtz.

 

[Flacco4Prez]

I believe Baez will play next year. Not at SS though unless the next manager decides he wants to move Castro to CF to cut on errors and they sign a 1 year deal with a glove man while they take extra time with Baez to focus up his glove work. Something like that is not likely with the lack of middle of the order power. With the constraints with payroll I expect Baez up in a less demanding spot on the team. Like LF as the did with Lake just to get his bat up here

Why would Baez play LF? There has been no indication to think that would be the case. If anything Bryant will play LF and Baez will play 3B. Baez will be in the infield I guarantee it. If Olt and Alcantra move through and become very succesful players things may get tricky. Someone will be traded in that case but odds are Olt, Alcantra, Baez, and Bryant won't all be great ML players. I hope Olt gets things under control and becomes a great everyday 3B. Then move Bryant to LF, and Baez to 2nd.

Essentially the Cubs have 4 infielders ranked in the top 75 prospects. Bryant and Olt have the ability to play in the OF, Baez never has. My point therefore is that Baez would not be the one moved.