The point is. IMO your chances are better to improve your team with a couple first and couple seconds when you have a team that needs a LOT... than just chancing your once in 70 year opportunity with the #1 pick on a top talent that isnt far away considered generational. We arent one or two players away. It's just my opinion man.
As far as studies.. Ive never heard of any with a greater than 50% success rate for top picks.
After watching JaMarcus Russell play so poorly, and Darren McFadden not even play this weekend, in the Raiders' dismal loss to the Ravens, I started to wonder how likely it is that an NFL first-round pick will fulfill his potential or be a bust...
bleacherreport.com
"After looking at these four drafts, I found that 54 out of the 122 (44 percent) first-round draft picks were out of the league by the beginning of the 2005 season. (One out of five Qbs, nine out of 14 RBs, nine out of 15 WRs, eight out of 17 tackles, one out of five guards, one out of three TEs, 10 out of 20 DEs, two out of four DTs, seven out of 15 DBs, five out of 13 LBs, and one out of five safeties).
I also found out that 60 out of the 122 draft picks (49 percent) were starters in the NFL by the 2005 season and 47 of them (39 percent) were Pro Bowlers at least once in their career."
