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gallagher

gallagher

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botfly10 said:
the obsession with the home run back is fuckin antiquated at this point

I mean, yeah it's great and all. But it's just not worth spending 1st round picks on. Shit, they're rarely even worth a second contract.

HBs just don't last. If you get lucky later in the draft, great. But they're just not worth investing big resources in. You just get such a better return at other positions and replacements that are plenty good enough are easy to find.
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I don't necessarily agree. The value of a first round pick over a second rounder is 5 years of controlled cost instead of 4. Because a HB doesn't last, that 5th year option is essentially an extra franchise tag that you use on the guy while he still has miles left.

Given the bust rate for first round picks, if the GM has the strongest feeling that the RB will pan out instead of an other prospect, you have to seriously consider it. It takes a special prospect to be worth the pick, but there are rare players that fit the profile.

All that said, I don't think this team needs a home run hitter necessarily. What this team needs at RB is an any-down back that stays on the field. This team needs Matt Forte not Chris Johnson.
 
Bearly

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gallagher said:
I don't necessarily agree. The value of a first round pick over a second rounder is 5 years of controlled cost instead of 4. Because a HB doesn't last, that 5th year option is essentially an extra franchise tag that you use on the guy while he still has miles left.

Given the bust rate for first round picks, if the GM has the strongest feeling that the RB will pan out instead of an other prospect, you have to seriously consider it. It takes a special prospect to be worth the pick, but there are rare players that fit the profile.

All that said, I don't think this team needs a home run hitter necessarily. What this team needs at RB is an any-down back that stays on the field. This team needs Matt Forte not Chris Johnson.
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Not so much any more and unless you're extremely special, it's not that difficult to hold onto a RB.

Participating in 75% of offensive or defensive plays, whichever is applicable, in two of the first three seasons of deals or an average of at least 50% playtime in each of their first three seasons sets the fifth year salary at the average of the third through twentieth highest salaries at a player's position. For first round picks that don't fall into any of these three categories, the fifth year salary is the average of the third through twenty-fifth highest salaries at a player's position.
 
gallagher

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Bearly said:
Not so much any more and unless you're extremely special, it's not that difficult to hold onto a RB.

Participating in 75% of offensive or defensive plays, whichever is applicable, in two of the first three seasons of deals or an average of at least 50% playtime in each of their first three seasons sets the fifth year salary at the average of the third through twentieth highest salaries at a player's position. For first round picks that don't fall into any of these three categories, the fifth year salary is the average of the third through twenty-fifth highest salaries at a player's position.
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I'm not really talking about how difficult it is to hold onto a good RB. My consideration is getting a return on the resources spent.

If, just as an example, this year's stud is Bijan Robinson and he's surely a cant-miss-prospect, I'd be much happier drafting him in the first round (presuming the team isn't in the top 5) than a greater gamble on the next Kevin White who busts out of the league before his 5th year. Outside of the top 5 (this year), I'd just be a lot more risk-averse given the number of ways this team needs improvement.

I'll note that I'm also emotionally preparing for the team to draft any possible position in the first round; if Poles trades down with Carolina, Anderson and Carter will be off the board. In that case, a lot of other prospects can make an argument for being a sensible pick.
 
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gallagher said:
I'm not really talking about how difficult it is to hold onto a good RB. My consideration is getting a return on the resources spent.

If, just as an example, this year's stud is Bijan Robinson and he's surely a cant-miss-prospect, I'd be much happier drafting him in the first round (presuming the team isn't in the top 5) than a greater gamble on the next Kevin White who busts out of the league before his 5th year. Outside of the top 5 (this year), I'd just be a lot more risk-averse given the number of ways this team needs improvement.

I'll note that I'm also emotionally preparing for the team to draft any possible position in the first round; if Poles trades down with Carolina, Anderson and Carter will be off the board. In that case, a lot of other prospects can make an argument for being a sensible pick.
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Not the point of my post. it was simply about the cap consideration on his 5th year and that the savings involved are no longer as significant. I suspect this change was made because early 2nd round successes could make more than late 1st round picks by the end of their 5th year.
 
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TL1961 said:
Kyler Murray sucks.
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This is true. As does Cousins, Jones, Dak, Goff and Stafford is probably never going to be the same guy.

As Amari said, Dak is the Black Kirk Cousins. Goff can have nice stats in perfect situations but will choke up on the big stage.
 
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pdxbearsfan said:
I think we hope the staff is set but it's too early to tell and then if we are successful they will get stolen away for a
higher position somewhere else. The key is having an identity and system that goes beyond the current coaching staff.
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You think a team can have a system in place and then hire a great coaching staff that will come in and run a system the owners/GM chose?


laughing-hysterically.gif




It is the NFL, great coaching staffs will ALWAYS install their own system. Guys like this are why the owners think the fans are idiots.
 
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