Official Cubs Game Thread!

CSF77

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So was Amaya blocking the plate? Seems to be a lot of people saying he was because they have new rules

Pretty sure that he has to have the ball first prior to putting the knee down. He can not do that prior.

The replay confirmed that the lane was open prior
 

CSF77

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So... my wandering thoughts of the night... what if any impact will Shota succeeding so well have on the potential of someone like roki sasaki? Because I'm not gonna lie, if the cubs can get Sasaki at 23(will be next year) with Steele, Shota and horton and all you're giving up is money..... things look very very different and if there is a time to go in it's looking like next year they are past the conservative point given the way they currently are playing. He'd be a potential difference making player at a perfect age for a team that looks like it's near the end of a rebuild and should be competitive.


It really depends on how the kids end up. Having 3 pitchers having no track record is always a gamble. Even Shota knows that the league will adjust back to him and he will need to keep adjusting back

So I think we should look at this later year after the rotation becomes stable and a known factor

I could say that ya they could do this or that but in reality the season is more a adjustment process.

So Apr numbers are just 1/6 of the season. Around July everything should balance
 

CSF77

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players under 25 years of age are restricted to minor league contracts, eliminating nearly all of the financial incentive a Japanese team may have for posting a young superstar. Yet, two-way unicorn Ohtani was posted by the Nippon-Ham Fighters in 2017 at the age of 23. Admittedly, the circumstances surrounding Ohtani and Sasaki are different as Ohtani had initially declared a move to the United States straight out of high school, and, per the existing NPB-MLB agreement, the Los Angeles Angels paid Nippon-Ham a $20 million flat posting fee despite him only signing a minor league deal with a $2.315M signing bonus (the maximum the Angels were permitted to give). When the Fighters surprisingly drafted Ohtani in 2012, the team agreed to a clause that effectively allowed Ohtani to be posted whenever he pleased.

 

CSF77

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It is unlikely that he gets posted. Ohtani had a clause that gave him the right to be posted prior

So this situation is a outlier
 

Bust

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He has started six games, and has been scored upon in two of them. 3 ER in 6 starts. 2 runs allowed to the Marlins, and a solo HR against the Red Sox (by the MLB HR leader)

He is 5-0, and the one start in which he did not get a win was delayed by rain after 4 innings, and he was unable to continue. At that point, he had held the Dodgers to 0 R on 2 hits.

he's surprised with his defense too. already on the young season he's made a handful of slick defensive plays.
 

knoxville7

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Not that the Cubs have options at the moment but…

Ian Happ’s just not very good, is he?

Career .248 hitter with sub .800 OPS.

I guess I will get pushback because he won two gold gloves but does anyone think he plays D at a level - or position- that justifies his complete inability to help the offense?
happ is what he is...a high OBP guy that plays decent defense in LF.

I think Happ makes for a decent leadoff option with his ability to work the counts and draw walks. takes him out of the middle of the lineup where you want guys that drive in runs, cuz that aint who happ is
 

CUBS1958

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This seems dumb to talk about on may first but.... is Shota the best pitcher in the NL? This mother ****** has 4 walks in 34.2 innings for a 0.12 bb/9. A 2 bb/9 is great. You pair that with 35 k's(9.09 k/9) and it puts him at a 23.1% k-bb %. Spencer Strider lead baseball last year with a 29.2% k-bb%. Gausman was #2 at 23.8%. Pablo Lopez was #3 at 23.2%. And for reference k-bb% is a pretty good measure of a pitcher analytically speaking since it's two things he has control on.
I got a problem with that .12 bb/9 innings. 4 walks in 34.2 innings is almost 4 walks in 4 games (36 innings) so the real answer should be close to 1 walk per 9 innings. It should calculate like this: 4/34.2 = x/9 Therefore x = 9*4/34.2 or 36/34.2 = 1.04 walks per 9 innings which is not .12 but still good. The 9.09 K/9 is good but I'm not sure what the k-bb percentage is about.
 

CSF77

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happ is what he is...a high OBP guy that plays decent defense in LF.

I think Happ makes for a decent leadoff option with his ability to work the counts and draw walks. takes him out of the middle of the lineup where you want guys that drive in runs, cuz that aint who happ is

I would not pull Hoerner out of the lead off. It just works with him.

When Suzuki and Bellinger return then Craig will have to put the thinking cap on

But at first glance:

Hoerner 2B
Happ LF
Suzuki RF
Bellinger CF
Morel 3B
Busch 1B
Swanson SS
Amaya C
Tauchman DH

PCA has done great but Tauchman has been a force this year and you want to play up his OBA.

Going into 2025. If Bellinger pulls his opt then you need to think of trading Happ and moving Bellinger to LF.

Even if Bellinger doesn't. They may end up trading Happ because Caissie and PCA are going to force it.
 

beckdawg

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Re: shota's bb/9, you're correct i forgot to multiply it by 9 cuz i was tired.
 

CSF77

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The Cubs’ 18 wins out of the chute marked the most for March-April in team history. The 2016 and '08 teams notched 17 wins, while the '18 and 1969 Cubs won 16. True, this season started earlier than previous years, but this success has nonetheless been a testament to the depth that Chicago hopes can sustain success all summer long.


Player of the month: 1B Michael Busch
With apologies to outfielder Mike Tauchman (.955 OPS in 92 plate appearances), Busch gets the nod for a bit of history he achieved in his first month in a Cubs uniform. From April 10-15, the rookie tied a franchise record by launching a homer in five consecutive games. Busch led the Cubs in homers (six) and total bases (47) in March/April, tied for the most RBIs (17) and had a .266/.333/.500 slash line.

Pitcher of the month: LHP Shota Imanaga
In any other month, what Javier Assad did (2-0, 1.97 ERA, six starts) would grab the spotlight. This season’s top standout out of the gate, however, was unquestionably Imanaga. The rookie lefty went 4-0 with a 0.98 ERA, 28 strikeouts and three walks in 27 2/3 innings in April. He joined Cole Hamels (August 2018), Jake Arrieta (August '15, September/October '15 and June '14) and Mark Prior (August '03) as the only Cubs pitchers with four-plus wins and an ERA under 1.00 in a single month (min. four starts) in the past 47 seasons.
 

CSF77

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So far:

Imanaga: 0.78 ERA 34.2 IP
Assad 1.97 ERA 32 IP
Taillon 1.50 ERA 18 IP

Steele should be on the bump on Monday.

Hendricks at Tenn: 5 IP 6 H 2 ER 0 BB 7 SO. So that looks like a typical Hendricks line. I'm pretty sure that he rebounds.



Brown lacks a 3rd offering. Most starters bring in 3rd offerings when going through the line up the 3rd time. We saw this glaring issue yesterday as he could not get through the 5th. So he should be in the pen to max out his 2 pitches in shorter stints.

So I expect Brown and Wesneski back in the pen. Hendricks is lined up to replace Brown.

The wild card is Wicks. But forearm strains are a red flag and there is no need to rush him back.

So I see the staff in a good place right now.


other injuries:

OF Cody Bellinger (two right rib fractures)
Expected return
: May/June
Bellinger did some light exercises, played catch and participated in fielding drills with Major League coach Jonathan Mota before the Cubs played the Mets at Citi Field on Monday. This follows his recovery after he ramped up activity in Boston the series prior.

He wants back but with PCA producing there is no rush needed. June should be more likely.

OF Seiya Suzuki (right oblique strain)
Expected return:
Mid-May
Suzuki resumed baseball activities on April 21 and began adding light swinging to his workouts on April 22, per manager Craig Counsell. The manager noted that Suzuki would continue to ramp up his activity through the upcoming road trip (April 26-May 2), and a Minor League rehab assignment could follow soon after that, barring any setbacks.
"Seiya's doing great. We're doing good," Counsell said on April 24. "We should be in a pretty good place once we get through that road trip, in terms of starting to talk about going to play."


We should get word pretty soon on Seiya going on a rehab stint. Getting him back is the biggest impact right now. The O was far better with him in it. Even if it is Tauchman in RF and Seiya doing DH for a month. 100% improvement.
 

TL1961

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So was Amaya blocking the plate? Seems to be a lot of people saying he was because they have new rules
I heard a lot of people saying he was and they said it was quite obvious but if you watch the overhead shot 6 inches of home plate are available to that runner before he ever gets to Amaya’s leg.

The other part and I think the analyst do a bad job explaining this is that the rule refers to not blocking the plate before you have the ball and they weren’t very clear on that.
 

TL1961

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Adbert’s inability to retire batters, coupled with his inability to hold runners, is a fun combination.
 

TL1961

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happ is what he is...a high OBP guy that plays decent defense in LF.

I think Happ makes for a decent leadoff option with his ability to work the counts and draw walks. takes him out of the middle of the lineup where you want guys that drive in runs, cuz that aint who happ is
Leadoff guy with no speed. No threat to steal.

But instead, we’re batting him in the middle of the lineup. Has he ever had a big hit?
 

RacerX

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I would not be sad if we never saw Alzolay in a Cubs uniform ever again, he flat out sucks and needs to go.
 

CSF77

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Ya he needs to go to Iowa and be forgotten

The bigger issue is the O going south. They need Suzuki back.
 

CSF77

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Bright point is Wesneski. Dude has been on a whole another level this year. (Filthy stuff)

He is going to make it interesting when players get healthy.
 

CSF77

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Leadoff guy with no speed. No threat to steal.

But instead, we’re batting him in the middle of the lineup. Has he ever had a big hit?
Injury has caused this change. When your best hitter is Happ that is a core issue.

He is a good 2 hitter. Takes pitches and gives the lead off opertunity to swipe a bag.

Getting Suzuki back fixes much of the Cubs issues right now. It demotes Mervis who is not a MLB quality talent. It reopens the DH for a 4th OF rotation as it was earlier. Giving the OF hitting days off. And seeing the injury list they should be doing this more

So I expect some changes soon. Alozay and Mervis might end up back on the bus.
 

CSF77

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Injuries & Moves: Steele set for Monday return
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Injuries & Moves: Steele set for Monday return
10:34 AM PDT
MLB.com

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10-DAY/15-DAY INJURED LIST
LHP Justin Steele (left hamstring strain)
Expected return: May 6 vs. Padres
Steele is lined up to be activated from the IL and start for the Cubs on May 6 against the Padres, manager Craig Counsell announced on May 3. The lefty has a bullpen session to complete on May 4 ahead of his return to Chicago’s rotation.

Steele threw 63 pitches in 3 1/3 innings in a rehab outing with Triple-A Iowa on May 1 and came out of it with no issues. The left-hander allowed three runs on six hits with four strikeouts and one walk. That start came after a 47-pitch outing in an extended spring game on April 26




So as expected Steele retuning on Monday. So the rotation would line up as Steele, Imanaga, Brown (expect Wesneski in a piggy back game here), off day. Taillon, Assad then Steele starting Mothers day

So Hendricks would be lined up for the 14th if they don't have him take over Brown's spot on the 8th
(edit Hendricks will start in Iowa on the 7th. He should be on track to start on the 14th)

If it was me demote Alzolay bring up Steele. When Hendricks gets up push Brown and Wesneski into high leverage pitching. This fixes the pen.
 
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