I think he’s capable of playing well. In a contract year, he’s going to play the best he ever has because the most money of his life is on the line. Not all players are capable of playing well. If he plays well this year, he could be looking at a contract of 15-20 mil a year. If he sucks, it’s probably more like 5-10 mil a year on a shorter contract with lesss guaranteed money. It’s the most significant year of football he has ever played. He knows that and is going to do everything possible to be ready for the season and every single game. You’re right that health may derail his season, but if it doesn’t, he’s going to be an expensive resign.
And the contract year is big for most players in most sports. I use it in fantasy sports all of the time. I picked Kyle Tucker over Juan Soto (who I picked last year) this year because he’s playing for a 9 figure contract. Soto is probably the better hitter, but Tucker is playing for more. Soto got paid and probably partied a little more than usual this offseason. He will probably still be great, but Tucker has more to play for, so he’s going to probably have a better year. It’s the same in practically every sport. The closer a player is to a possible big contract, the higher their level of focus becomes.
