Offseason discussion/rumors

[DanTown]

If Schwarber is putting up .300/.400/.600, Zobrist .280/.380/.540, Baez .280/.320/.560 then Almora is doing .280/.320/.425 how do you justify it outside of day off depth to f tightening up the D late inning?

Ben Zobrist has one slugging year at .540 and it was in 2009; his slugging percentage the past five years is roughly .431.

Baez also had a slugging percentage of only .423 last year so going up to .560 would be amazing. having a slugging percentage .280 points higher than your BA is also quite amazing. That's literally HOF level power. I mean, if Baez comes close to that, obviously Almora will sit but until that happens, Baez's strong defense at 2B is very similar and not more or less important than strong CF defense.

Fans keep wanting or thinking Joe will manage this team (or any team) like how teams were managed in the 1980s were it was an "everyday lineup" and Joe simply doesn't believe in it. When you add in injuries, days off, match-ups, etc both guys (Almora and Baez) will get plenty of at bats to determine what Joe's "everyday" lineup will be in the post-season. The only time Joe ever throws out the same lineups is in the playoffs where the only moves he makes are when guys are so bad at the plate that he has to make the move. Me saying "Zobrist is going to start 80+ games at 2B" doesn't mean that Zobrist will start playoff games there.

 

[anotheridiot]

If Schwarber is putting up .300/.400/.600, Zobrist .280/.380/.540, Baez .280/.320/.560 then Almora is doing .280/.320/.425 how do you justify it outside of day off depth to f tightening up the D late inning?

People really forgot how bad Schwarber got that dropped his average to .246 his first year after hovering over .300 at the beginning. 13 multi hit games all 69 games. Half of the games he did not even get a hit. They stopped pitching to him, only 36 walks in 273 plate appearances.

He makes a difference in big games, post season built his statue already. Seems leg issues are just part of why Joe is going to take him slow.

 

[Diehardfan]

People really forgot how bad Schwarber got that dropped his average to .246 his first year after hovering over .300 at the beginning. 13 multi hit games all 69 games. Half of the games he did not even get a hit. They stopped pitching to him, only 36 walks in 273 plate appearances.

He makes a difference in big games, post season built his statue already. Seems leg issues are just part of why Joe is going to take him slow.

Who gives a shit about BA? It's all about production. He also had 16 HR's and 43 RBI's in 273 plate appearances.....that's a bit under a half a season. Give him 600 PA's at that pace and you're looking at about 35 HR's and closing in on 100 RBI's. So he hits .240....big deal.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not sure his batting average in that stint was reflective of what he'll do. Consider this, he hit .272/.392/.544 vs RH pitching and .143/.213/.268 vs LH pitching thus far in his major league career. Now it's not unusual for guys to have large platoon splits. Some keep it throughout and some like say Rizzo figure things out. The thing is in the minors at A+ in 2014 he hit LH pitching to the tune of .265/.368/.531. In A he hit .400/.464/.680. In A- he hit .400/.500/.400. In 2015 at AA he hit .256/.373/.465 and at AAA he hit lefties .379/.419/.759. When you add that in with what he was able to do vs Andrew Miller in the playoffs I think it's a safe assumption that he can hit lefties he just needs some adjustment time.

I've brought this up before but it wouldn't surprise me if Schwarber is a better hitter than Bryant in the long run. In an MVP caliber year, Bryant hit .284/.372/.523 vs RH pitching. Schwaber as a rookie who was only a year away from being drafted in 2015 posted better OBP and slugging in his first go round. And obviously that's not a shot at Bryant but more a suggestion of how much Schwarber murdered RH pitching. If Schwarber's numbers vs LH pitching improve and as I said given what he did against Miller in the post season I don't see why they wouldn't, Schwarber could be an offensive monster. It's not that unreasonable to assume he'll reach his AA/AAA numbers which breaks down to 22 hits (8 doubles 4 HRs) 9 bb, 29 k's in 72 ABs or roughly(milb.com didn't have all stats i need to calculate) .305/.383/.583. Even if he's only like .280/.350/.550 he'd be an absolute monster rivaling Bryant only from the left side.

Honestly, pitchers are going to have nightmares walking into Schwarber/Bryant/Rizzo back to back. All 3 of them likely have MVP caliber bats and the break down is great such that you go L/R/L and can't easily use your bullpen around them. This is obviously why Theo wouldn't part with him in the Chapman/Miller discussions.

 

[CSF77]

Ben Zobrist has one slugging year at .540 and it was in 2009; his slugging percentage the past five years is roughly .431.

Baez also had a slugging percentage of only .423 last year so going up to .560 would be amazing. having a slugging percentage .280 points higher than your BA is also quite amazing. That's literally HOF level power. I mean, if Baez comes close to that, obviously Almora will sit but until that happens, Baez's strong defense at 2B is very similar and not more or less important than strong CF defense.

Fans keep wanting or thinking Joe will manage this team (or any team) like how teams were managed in the 1980s were it was an "everyday lineup" and Joe simply doesn't believe in it. When you add in injuries, days off, match-ups, etc both guys (Almora and Baez) will get plenty of at bats to determine what Joe's "everyday" lineup will be in the post-season. The only time Joe ever throws out the same lineups is in the playoffs where the only moves he makes are when guys are so bad at the plate that he has to make the move. Me saying "Zobrist is going to start 80+ games at 2B" doesn't mean that Zobrist will start playoff games there.

If Baez is able to improve vs RHP then that mark is not out of the question. He needs to refine his approach vs them. He has become very accomplished vs lefties and he needs to keep that same approach against righties. That is the reality. As he gains more success then his numbers should increase but it comes down to the mental part of the game first.

 

[CSF77]

People really forgot how bad Schwarber got that dropped his average to .246 his first year after hovering over .300 at the beginning. 13 multi hit games all 69 games. Half of the games he did not even get a hit. They stopped pitching to him, only 36 walks in 273 plate appearances.

He makes a difference in big games, post season built his statue already. Seems leg issues are just part of why Joe is going to take him slow.

And he was a Rookie with the league catching up. I believe that he crushed doubts when he came in and made it look easy on the biggest stage with no time in the minors to get adjustments in.

To say the least what he did was shut Pete Rose up and put him in shock after he said that he would be toyed with.

I do not doubt his ability to hit. The only thing that is going to limit him is the front office lessening the wear on his knee.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not sure his batting average in that stint was reflective of what he'll do. Consider this, he hit .272/.392/.544 vs RH pitching and .143/.213/.268 vs LH pitching thus far in his major league career. Now it's not unusual for guys to have large platoon splits. Some keep it throughout and some like say Rizzo figure things out. The thing is in the minors at A+ in 2014 he hit LH pitching to the tune of .265/.368/.531. In A he hit .400/.464/.680. In A- he hit .400/.500/.400. In 2015 at AA he hit .256/.373/.465 and at AAA he hit lefties .379/.419/.759. When you add that in with what he was able to do vs Andrew Miller in the playoffs I think it's a safe assumption that he can hit lefties he just needs some adjustment time.

I've brought this up before but it wouldn't surprise me if Schwarber is a better hitter than Bryant in the long run. In an MVP caliber year, Bryant hit .284/.372/.523 vs RH pitching. Schwaber as a rookie who was only a year away from being drafted in 2015 posted better OBP and slugging in his first go round. And obviously that's not a shot at Bryant but more a suggestion of how much Schwarber murdered RH pitching. If Schwarber's numbers vs LH pitching improve and as I said given what he did against Miller in the post season I don't see why they wouldn't, Schwarber could be an offensive monster. It's not that unreasonable to assume he'll reach his AA/AAA numbers which breaks down to 22 hits (8 doubles 4 HRs) 9 bb, 29 k's in 72 ABs or roughly(milb.com didn't have all stats i need to calculate) .305/.383/.583. Even if he's only like .280/.350/.550 he'd be an absolute monster rivaling Bryant only from the left side.

Honestly, pitchers are going to have nightmares walking into Schwarber/Bryant/Rizzo back to back. All 3 of them likely have MVP caliber bats and the break down is great such that you go L/R/L and can't easily use your bullpen around them. This is obviously why Theo wouldn't part with him in the Chapman/Miller discussions.

We can assume that the line up will be Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, Zobrist, Russell on most days. You will most likely see Zobrist leading off and Baez hitting 4h vs lefties in general.

Ideally you want Schwarber and Baez in the line up together pretty much every day but I'm thinking that becomes more of a reality in 2018 and Zo takes a back seat

 

[DanTown]

If Baez is able to improve vs RHP then that mark is not out of the question. He needs to refine his approach vs them. He has become very accomplished vs lefties and he needs to keep that same approach against righties. That is the reality. As he gains more success then his numbers should increase but it comes down to the mental part of the game first.

I guess the comp is he becomes a GG Brian Dozier, who just 42 HR last year? Or Mark Trumbo who hit 47? I mean, Baez simply doesn't make contact enough to be some .560 slugger. Doesn't mean he's not a valuable baseball player but a guy who can slug .560 and play GG defense is what Mike Trout, the best player in the game, does.

 

[CSF77]

I guess the comp is he becomes a GG Brian Dozier, who just 42 HR last year? Or Mark Trumbo who hit 47? I mean, Baez simply doesn't make contact enough to be some .560 slugger. Doesn't mean he's not a valuable baseball player but a guy who can slug .560 and play GG defense is what Mike Trout, the best player in the game, does.

I can see that happening. I've also seen him flux between .04-.08 walk rates in the minors. So I'm not sure if he will stabilize as a every day player or not. We are seeing that power comes with strike outs. But it is the walk rates that they are really looking at.

Time will tell with him.