Offseason Junk

[JP Hochbaum]

I'll be honest, I don't think the cubs are as bad as others do. There's 3 FA i'd sign if i could at the prices/length fangraphs has for their projections. The first is Kershaw. They have him going for 4/$26.5 mil. I get the reason why he's not going to command $30 mil a season but think there's still a lot to like there. The second I'd sign is grienke at the 1/$11 mil fangraphs has on him. To me he is similar to the lackey signing in 2016. He's a winner who you are just trying to milk the last bits out cheaply. With Hendricks, Miley and Alolay it allows you to slide some of the younger depth the cubs finally have into the bullpen rather than putting it all on them to start in 2022. For example, Steele and Marquez coming out of the bullpen is a lot more interesting and if they pitch well you have options to replace Miley and Greinke in 2023.

The last signing is pretty obvious but they have baez getting 4/$20M. That's a pretty no brainer for me. It buys you time for Howard and the other prospects and he can always move to 3B later if his defense takes a step back with age.

All told those 3 signings would push the 2022 payroll to $125.4 mil which is hardly breaking the bank and the best part is the two big signings in baez/kershaw would both be 4 year deals so you're not tied down long term. You make those moves and I think the cubs can be a wild card team who can push for the division if the dice roll well. I'd also look to play Nico in CF and Happ in LF with the idea being long term Nico moves to LF once PCA is ready. I realize Nico hasn't played CF but it was suggested he could play there when he was a prospect coming up and he's a better runner than Happ so I imagine he'd have better range.

I do think you are right that the Cubs are able to compete this year. The "have to get guys" are going to be starting pitchers. All other positions we can do low risk high reward type signings.

 

[beckdawg]

Frazier is a very good buy low type similar to the guys that performed well as AAA guys like wisdom. If he hits he'll be a pretty useful piece.

 

[beckdawg]

?

Don't really see the objection. Baez obviously isn't happening now. Greinke has been a durable innings eater. A low 4 ERA isn't gonna set the world on fire but a 1 year deal for $11 mil? That seems pretty no brainer which will likely play well assuming they aren't in the playoff picture. Someone will be interested in a vet with playoff experience.

Kershaw I can see some reluctance toward given he hasn't been the typical 200 inning ace. But if you compare him to the outrage people had about darvish being dealt, darvish was gonna be 34 and the previous season had put up 11.01 k/9 and 1.66 bb/9 with a very unsustainable hr/9 of 0.59. Kershaw is also going to be 34 and put up 10.65 k/9 1.55 bb/9 and 1.11 hr/9 this past season. And the thing is we've seen with top level guys like Verlander that they can pitch well in to their late 30's. Ideally i'd like him to be younger but if he was 32 he'd be getting way more money and a longer deal. I wouldn't go farther than a 4 year deal on him and maybe he ends up getting more than that but 4 years at $26 mil seems like a difficult deal for him to underperform unless he gets hurt which can really happen to anyone.

So, like I said I don't really see a huge downside. I can see the argument of just saying **** 2022 and going young with the hope that the young guys break out. If that's what you're in favor of then I can see why you wouldn't like those moves. But I'm working on the assumption that they are actually going to rebound this team fairly quickly. For me it's about getting enough of a team here that when guys like Davis and others start popping up full time there's enough of a team around for them to be good. I also like the idea of working the younger guys like Marquez and Steele in as bullpen guys and pushing them to starter in the coming years after they mature a bit. Not to mention they give you good depth should you get injuries.

 

[CSF77]

Don't really see the objection. Baez obviously isn't happening now. Greinke has been a durable innings eater. A low 4 ERA isn't gonna set the world on fire but a 1 year deal for $11 mil? That seems pretty no brainer which will likely play well assuming they aren't in the playoff picture. Someone will be interested in a vet with playoff experience.

Kershaw I can see some reluctance toward given he hasn't been the typical 200 inning ace. But if you compare him to the outrage people had about darvish being dealt, darvish was gonna be 34 and the previous season had put up 11.01 k/9 and 1.66 bb/9 with a very unsustainable hr/9 of 0.59. Kershaw is also going to be 34 and put up 10.65 k/9 1.55 bb/9 and 1.11 hr/9 this past season. And the thing is we've seen with top level guys like Verlander that they can pitch well in to their late 30's. Ideally i'd like him to be younger but if he was 32 he'd be getting way more money and a longer deal. I wouldn't go farther than a 4 year deal on him and maybe he ends up getting more than that but 4 years at $26 mil seems like a difficult deal for him to underperform unless he gets hurt which can really happen to anyone.

So, like I said I don't really see a huge downside. I can see the argument of just saying **** 2022 and going young with the hope that the young guys break out. If that's what you're in favor of then I can see why you wouldn't like those moves. But I'm working on the assumption that they are actually going to rebound this team fairly quickly. For me it's about getting enough of a team here that when guys like Davis and others start popping up full time there's enough of a team around for them to be good. I also like the idea of working the younger guys like Marquez and Steele in as bullpen guys and pushing them to starter in the coming years after they mature a bit. Not to mention they give you good depth should you get injuries.

Frazier takes up the RH bat that can play all 3 OF spots.

This move means that Jed is looking at Hoerner starting vs over paying on a over priced SS market.

I believe Jed should target a LH or SH UI. He has 2 guys that are injury questions.

Dan Volgy was non tendered. Might as well pick him up at this point for a extra LH power bat for loose change.

 

[TL1961]

Frazier is a defensive liability and there is no way in hell he should be anywhere near centerfield

 

[beckdawg]

Frazier is a defensive liability and there is no way in hell he should be anywhere near centerfield

Metrics say LF isn't great either

 

[Diehardfan]

Just because a team "competes" doesn't mean that team is any good. All teams compete.....not all teams are successful at it.

Is anyone actually interested in following a mediocre team that wins 75 games? If they are a young team that's just coming together, the answer is yes. If it's a bunch of 30 something guys hanging on.....them no, not really.

In pro sports, you want to be very good or very bad.....in the middle is exactly where you don't want to be.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Not really getting a 'cubs are going to try and compete in 2022' vibe. Which is the right move, the cubs should stay rebuilding for a bit. Stock the minors come the draft, preferably with some pitching that won't disappear into a void like the bulk of Theo's tenure. Don't @ me with pitching grades or potential, @ me when the cubs develop a pitching prospect better than Adbert Alzolay or James Norwood.

Gomes is fine short-term and may be a contending team's small target at the deadline. LOL at whoever thinks signing him puts this team closer to contending than it does rebuilding. Frazier may not even be on the roster, but I like the cubs trying to fix his swing.

I see a couple more dumpster diving moves, like Michael Lorenzen for the pen and Mike Foltynewicz as a reclamation project.

 

[knoxville7]

Don't really see the objection. Baez obviously isn't happening now. Greinke has been a durable innings eater. A low 4 ERA isn't gonna set the world on fire but a 1 year deal for $11 mil? That seems pretty no brainer which will likely play well assuming they aren't in the playoff picture. Someone will be interested in a vet with playoff experience.

Kershaw I can see some reluctance toward given he hasn't been the typical 200 inning ace. But if you compare him to the outrage people had about darvish being dealt, darvish was gonna be 34 and the previous season had put up 11.01 k/9 and 1.66 bb/9 with a very unsustainable hr/9 of 0.59. Kershaw is also going to be 34 and put up 10.65 k/9 1.55 bb/9 and 1.11 hr/9 this past season. And the thing is we've seen with top level guys like Verlander that they can pitch well in to their late 30's. Ideally i'd like him to be younger but if he was 32 he'd be getting way more money and a longer deal. I wouldn't go farther than a 4 year deal on him and maybe he ends up getting more than that but 4 years at $26 mil seems like a difficult deal for him to underperform unless he gets hurt which can really happen to anyone.

So, like I said I don't really see a huge downside. I can see the argument of just saying **** 2022 and going young with the hope that the young guys break out. If that's what you're in favor of then I can see why you wouldn't like those moves. But I'm working on the assumption that they are actually going to rebound this team fairly quickly. For me it's about getting enough of a team here that when guys like Davis and others start popping up full time there's enough of a team around for them to be good. I also like the idea of working the younger guys like Marquez and Steele in as bullpen guys and pushing them to starter in the coming years after they mature a bit. Not to mention they give you good depth should you get injuries.

Why on earth would Kershaw or Greinke sign with a cubs team that won’t be competing for a ring this season? They are both at the end of their careers, they don’t wanna play for a .500 team.

other than they would have zero interest in signing here, I could give more reasons…but there’s really no point

 

[CSF77]

Blue Jays Sign Kevin Gausman

The Blue Jays have made another big strike in free agency, signing right-hander Kevin Gausman to a five-year, $110MM deal. …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

 

[CSF77]

Red Sox Sign James Paxton

The Red Sox continue to bolster their rotation, announcing agreement on a deal with James Paxton. It's a one-year guarantee that …

www.mlbtraderumors.com

 

[CSF77]

Why on earth would Kershaw or Greinke sign with a cubs team that won’t be competing for a ring this season? They are both at the end of their careers, they don’t wanna play for a .500 team.

other than they would have zero interest in signing here, I could give more reasons…but there’s really no point

Have to agree with this. On the list the main guy that could go under market is Rodon due to his spotty track record. Folty seem like a prime target to get into the pitch lab on a 1 year deal.

Starting Pitchers

Brett Anderson (34)
Chase Anderson (34)
Tyler Anderson (32)
Chris Archer (33)
Jake Arrieta (36)
Matthew Boyd (31)
Dylan Bundy (29)
Trevor Cahill (33)
Johnny Cueto (36)
Zach Davies (29)
Danny Duffy (33)
Chris Ellis (29)
Thomas Eshelman (28)
Mike Fiers (37)
Mike Foltynewicz (30)
Chi Chi Gonzalez (30)
Zack Greinke (38)
J.A. Happ (39)
Matt Harvey (33)
Rich Hill (42)
Jakob Junis (29)
Clayton Kershaw (34)
Yusei Kikuchi (31)
Kwang-Hyun Kim (33)
Chad Kuhl (29)
Wade LeBlanc (37)
Jon Lester (38)
Jordan Lyles (31)
Carlos Martinez (30)
Nick Martinez (31)
Matt Moore (33)
Sean Nolin (32)
Wily Peralta (33)
Martin Perez (31)
Michael Pineda (33)
Garrett Richards (34)
Carlos Rodon (29)
Aaron Sanchez (29)
Matt Shoemaker (35)
Drew Smyly (33)
Marcus Stroman (30)
Jose Urena (30)
Vince Velasquez (30)
Alex Wood (31)

 

[CSF77]

Now if Jed wants to play to win then Correa and Stroman and try to get Rodon under market.

Go big or go with tinkering.

 

[scorcher2]

Why on earth would Kershaw or Greinke sign with a cubs team that won’t be competing for a ring this season? They are both at the end of their careers, they don’t wanna play for a .500 team.

other than they would have zero interest in signing here, I could give more reasons…but there’s really no point

Cubs will not be .500 they'll be lucky to win 50 games.

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Cubs will not be .500 they'll be lucky to win 50 games.

Have to love new accounts who say stupid stuff.

 

[CSF77]

Have to love new accounts who say stupid stuff.

Aug 1 51-56. -5

Oct 2 71-91. -20

You can't spin a 15 loss add on.

Jed can't go into this half assed and believe that magic will happen.

Magic is unexpect good results. Cubs had 2 guys that fell into this bubble.

Going into 2022 if Jed continues this facade then expect 60 wins.

 

[scorcher2]

Have to love new accounts who say stupid stuff.

Yet true... I guarantee I'll be more correct than you if the offseason continues on its current trajectory.

 

[Zvbxrpl]

Now if Jed wants to play to win then Correa and Stroman and try to get Rodon under market.

Go big or go with tinkering.

*Narrator voice*

The cubs were not “playing to win” or “going big”

 

[JP Hochbaum]

Yet true... I guarantee I'll be more correct than you if the offseason continues on its current trajectory.

I am not stupid enough to call the Ricketts cheap, when they were top 5 in salary from 2016 through last year. Ans went into luxury tax more times than 25 other teams.

And I am not stupid enough to make a call that the team will win 50 games, when a team hasn't done that in a long time.

 

[Probie2429]

Ricketts is the only owner in town that is willing to rebuild the right way. Cut your costs, build through the draft, supplement with short-term free agents, and develop your prospects. Ricketts isn’t cheap, he’s just practical. It’s things like what Stan Bowman did like trading for Seth Jones and giving him 9.5 million a year until he retires while your team needs to be completely blown up that lead to years of mediocrity.