Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[chibears55]

More depth

https://twitter.com/BleacherNation/status/1082421262553624576?s=19

 

[beckdawg]

The question is now whether the Cubs will be able to clear enough money that Harper is swayed from simply going with the highest bidder in the end.

That's where this gets interesting. I largely agree with you. With that being said, I think it's going to come down to a case of him having to take less to play for the cubs. Supposedly he already turned down $300 mil from Washington. While I don't think there was a years number on that(ie it could have been like 15 years or something crazy with a not that crazy AAV), going from the ~$15 mil the cubs have to $30-35 is going to be difficult because even if they can do that, they still have some other holes they need to fill.

 

[CSF77]

too many contradicting reports to take anything worth a grain of salt.

 

[CSF77]

That's where this gets interesting. I largely agree with you. With that being said, I think it's going to come down to a case of him having to take less to play for the cubs. Supposedly he already turned down $300 mil from Washington. While I don't think there was a years number on that(ie it could have been like 15 years or something crazy with a not that crazy AAV), going from the ~$15 mil the cubs have to $30-35 is going to be difficult because even if they can do that, they still have some other holes they need to fill.

Boras has been known to get creative.

Max Scherzer rhp 15:$10M, 16-18:$15M annually. 19-21:$35M annually
$50M signing bonus
$5M in 2015 and $15M each in 2019, 2020, 2021

2019-21 salaries ($105M) deferred without interest, to be paid in seven $15M installments each July 1 from 2022 to 2028

 

[beckdawg]

I'm assuming this is the announcement of marquee. But jesus that is a tease....

https://www.instagram.com/p/BsWpLrdA4p7/?utm_source=ig_twitter_share&igshid=lgejlojxfozz

That being said the prospect guy on BN had an interesting theory. It was essentially that if the cubs were going to sign Harper what better way to do it than float all these rumors toying with the idea that they weren't really in play. And then when the convention comes around you spring it as a big surprise to go hand in hand with the announcement of a cub centric tv network.

 

[CSF77]

Say that he went this route.

2019: 10M plus 5 mil of a 50 Mil bonus. It falls under the 246M

Now falling off:
Hamels (20M)
Zobrist (14M)
Q (10.5 opt)
Morrow: (12M vesting opt)
Kintzler: (5M)
Duesing (3.5M)
Cishek: (6.5M)
Strop (6.5M)

2020 has Hendricks on his walk year. Bryant, Baez and Russell 2 years of control. Contreras, Happ & Almora A1.

So in general 2020 they can absorb a 2nd year build up from him. System wise the pen can be self sustained.

 

[CSF77]

As in self sustained:

I'm seeing Iowa at Clifton, Rucker and Robinson. They have 2 spots that they can bring in AAAA injury depth. Mills I'm not sure how much control they have left and Tseng should be dropped. Alozay and Underwood IMO should be pushed into set up and closer duty with Dakota Mekkes in the mix. Maples they need to move on from. He is a distraction.

So in general they really don't need to invest heavy into the pen. If Murrow invests great. If not then make a legit closer investment and build around him with their self developed talent.

 

[Castor76]

Just another crazy trade idea.

LA Angels get Quintana - Would be at worst their #2

Indians get Contreras, Schwarber, Heyward, and propects from Angels. - Gives them upgrade at 3 positions offensively, two being under control for 3-4 years. Total payroll increase, about 3.6 M

Cubs get Kluber and Perez and save 14 M

 

[CSF77]

Just another crazy trade idea.

LA Angels get Quintana - Would be at worst their #2

Indians get Contreras, Schwarber, Heyward, and propects from Angels. - Gives them upgrade at 3 positions offensively, two being under control for 3-4 years. Total payroll increase, about 3.6 M

Cubs get Kluber and Perez and save 14 M

1st never would happen.
2nd: Perez is a back up. .205/.298/.340 He might be worse than Caritini.
3rd: You lose a starting catcher, a starting LF, A starting RF and a starting pitcher for basically an Ace and a back up catcher.

I think that is a huge over pay.

 

[CSF77]

If you were hard up to save 14M then trade Zobrist for B list prospects. That removes 14M. Signing Harper moves Heyward to CF. That makes Almora the 4th OF. At that point they push Happ to 2B until Russell returns.

That is a far simpler solution.

 

[Castor76]

1st never would happen.
2nd: Perez is a back up. .205/.298/.340 He might be worse than Caritini.
3rd: You lose a starting catcher, a starting LF, A starting RF and a starting pitcher for basically an Ace and a back up catcher.

I think that is a huge over pay.

But you have to give to get. You lose a starting LF who doesn't hit well with runners on. You lose a starting RF you want to lose anyway. The starting catcher hurts, but you're getting an Ace in return and that catcher is at best your #6 hitter most days with the current lineup. And the pitcher you're losing is your #4, perhaps your #5 if Darvish is as expected.

Moving Zobrst is the easiest way.

We all know any big contract trade is a trade to go after Harper. There have been rumors about Cleveland moving Kluber. This move makes the Angels better and doesn't cost them a lot in money or prospects plus Q still has control after this season. If Cleveland really is moving Kluber, they get instant upgrades at 3 spots for only a little more money, all controlled for at least 3 years.

 

[CSF77]

But you have to give to get. You lose a starting LF who doesn't hit well with runners on. You lose a starting RF you want to lose anyway. The starting catcher hurts, but you're getting an Ace in return and that catcher is at best your #6 hitter most days with the current lineup. And the pitcher you're losing is your #4, perhaps your #5 if Darvish is as expected.

Moving Zobrst is the easiest way.

We all know any big contract trade is a trade to go after Harper. There have been rumors about Cleveland moving Kluber. This move makes the Angels better and doesn't cost them a lot in money or prospects plus Q still has control after this season. If Cleveland really is moving Kluber, they get instant upgrades at 3 spots for only a little more money, all controlled for at least 3 years.

It is still too much.

Q is a 3-4 WAR pitcher.
Schwarber gave 3 WAR
Contreras gives 2-3 WAR
Heyward 2 WAR.

At min we are talking giving up 10 WAR for a 0 WAR catcher and a 8 WAR pitcher.

After math: Happ in LF down grade.
Harper in RF up grade.
Perez C down grade.


I’ll tell you what I think. Darvish rebounds to 5 WAR. He has something to prove.
Hamels lies somewhere between Texas and Chi. I expect a 3.5 ERA honestly.
Hendricks has kinda taken the staff ace gig right now. He might make the next step. Lester falls off. His 18 wins were bloated. Q rebounds to a 4 WAR pitcher. He was moving that direction anyways.

Honestly I just don’t see them needing a super ace.

I’ve said it before but here it is again. Last year the problem was Bryant got injured. The o shut down when he did. And he came back as a shell. Baez did a nice impression but he is far from Bryant’s equal. That could not be over come. Every other issue is far lesser. Even Darvish and Morrow’s injury. Chatwood bombing. None factored as much as losing a 7 WAR player.

 

[CSF77]

Right now they are around 17 Mil under the 246. I just think that they suck it up and offer 10/350

50M bonus paid over a 10 year span 5M per
100 M deferred after the contract ends 10 M per over 10 years.

So that takes out 150M of the deal. Leaves 200M which is basically 20M plus bonus or 25 M

To work it out 10 M plus 5 which keeps under tax. Year 2 25M plus bonus and year 3 25M plus bonus. This brings him back to 25 AAV when you want to lock up Bryant and maybe Baez and extend Rizzo.

That is a workable situation that doesn’t require a contract shed. You just act smart and use your farm to find savings on lesser essential requirements vs over spending on support players.

 

[Castor76]

So the guys who lives and dies by war doesn't want a move that would result in a gain of 2-3 WAR? And where do you get that Q and Schwarber will be a 3 WAR at least? This would be about not crossing our fingers and hoping for the best. This is about setting up the staff for the next 2 seasons at least. Happ "downgrade" in LF is you guessing. Between the two, one gotten better as the situation calls for it where the other gets markedly worse. By "counting" I mean runners on and RISP.

And it isn't even about getting a super ace. It's about getting that plus a potential lineup altering bat plus rid of the Heyward contract.

 

[CSF77]

So the guys who lives and dies by war doesn't want a move that would result in a gain of 2-3 WAR? And where do you get that Q and Schwarber will be a 3 WAR at least? This would be about not crossing our fingers and hoping for the best. This is about setting up the staff for the next 2 seasons at least. Happ "downgrade" in LF is you guessing. Between the two, one gotten better as the situation calls for it where the other gets markedly worse. By "counting" I mean runners on and RISP.

And it isn't even about getting a super ace. It's about getting that plus a potential lineup altering bat plus rid of the Heyward contract.

Like I just posted. You don't need to shed anything to sign Harper. Boras has already done a deal like this with Max. So this is not a new science.

#2: If you really want a staff upgrade then deal with SFG. They have been trying to move Madbum. Q with 2 prospects. Contracts swap even. SFG get a opt year plus 2 prospects. No cash increase either side.

But again I really think that Darvish rebounds to a 5 WAR pitcher. The talent is still there. Hendricks is due also. His only hold back was reaching 200 IP. I really think that he makes the next step.

As far as Schwarber is concerned. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=16478&position=OF

1.9/1.6/3.2 So he is trending right. Current PA: 1274. Baez at 1267 PA's at the end of 2017 2.3 fWAR. And he came in with -.8/.4/2.2/2.3 So at this point Schwarber was .9 fWAR plus to where Baez was. So I'm seeing a break out.

Add to it.
2017: BB% 12.1 ->15.3 2018
2017 SO%: 30.9 ->27.5 2018

To be honest here I believe it really comes down to figuring out the shift.

 

[CSF77]

Q we don't know if 2018 was a blip. BB/9 spiked at 3.51. Well over his career mark of 2.55, HR/9 1.29. Well over his .91. Now this could be related to last years pitching coach that professed a high 4 seam and it just didn't work. Regardless he was coming off a 3.9 fWAR which was more due to IP at 188 vs his 200IP norm. Again Joe with a deep pen mentality.

I would have to see a year removed do get a better opinion but on the surface 2018 seems outlier vs norm.

 

[Omeletpants]

White Sox sign Jon Jay. One of my favorite players. When he was with the Cubs he was about the only player than knew how to bunt

https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/report-white-sox-reach-1-year-agreement-with-outfielder-jon-jay/

 

[chibears55]

White Sox sign Jon Jay. One of my favorite players. When he was with the Cubs he was about the only player than knew how to bunt

https://chicago.suntimes.com/sports/report-white-sox-reach-1-year-agreement-with-outfielder-jon-jay/

Sox are signing all of Machado buddies to try and lure him there..

Wonder if they'll try and make the cubs an offer for Almora next

 

[anotheridiot]

Moving Zobrst is the easiest way.

Other than Zobrist was probably the most important of Ross and Heyward making this team push in the playoffs.

 

[anotheridiot]

So the guys who lives and dies by war doesn't want a move that would result in a gain of 2-3 WAR? And where do you get that Q and Schwarber will be a 3 WAR at least? This would be about not crossing our fingers and hoping for the best. This is about setting up the staff for the next 2 seasons at least. Happ "downgrade" in LF is you guessing. Between the two, one gotten better as the situation calls for it where the other gets markedly worse. By "counting" I mean runners on and RISP.

And it isn't even about getting a super ace. It's about getting that plus a potential lineup altering bat plus rid of the Heyward contract.

I dont see how anyone can argue over wins above replacement, since replacement is a variable. A replacement might hit a walk off grand slam on sunday night baseball.