Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[beckdawg]

I'll easily take the over on that.

 

[brett05]

Both Chicago Teams look to be an over to me. I like the over for the Braves too and the under for the Reds and Pirates.

 

[beckdawg]

Except for there's no rhyme or reason to the multipliers used for wOBA. It's an opinion. It's like those Strength of Schedule formulas that use your opponents' SOS within the formula. You have to determine your SOS by using your opponents SOS, but that can't be determined until your SOS is determined, buuuuuuuuuuuuut here's your SOS.

There's no opinion in a lot of numbers. A lot of the saber stats, good and useful as they are, have opinion in those formulas. Doesn't mean they can't be used or they have no value. I just don't put them on an alter.

Um... what are you talking about? It's not "opinion."

The formula from 2013 was
wOBA = (0.690×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.888×1B + 1.271×2B + 1.616×3B + 2.101×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)

The only difference between that and OBP is the weighting of the values for the various types of hits and hbp/bb. Weighting something isn't an "opinion." It takes how likely you were to get a hit or a walk as compared to historical data and weighs it. If you're living in the dead ball era your numbers get a boost. If you're playing in the steroid era where offense was more prevalent it weighs more negatively. This isn't a difficult concept to grasp and it's not making shit up on the fly. But they don't just put their opinion of what that number should be. The calculate it with math.

More to the point if you're comparing 2 players from 2018 it has 0 impact because the calculation is exactly the same. Additionally, year to year the differences generally aren't that much so long as you're the same "era" where rules are similar. There's some minor variance but you're talking a few points here or there. For example, the difference in league average wOBA between 2018 and 2017 was 6 points. Between 2018 and 2016 it was 3. Between 2018 and 2015 it was 2. And between 2018 and 2013 it was 1.

The main reason for the weight is if you're comparing to vastly different ERAs. For example. At the height of the steroid ERA in 2000 the league average wOBA was .341. How do you compare a player from that era to a player from the deadball era where you might see a wOBA of .301? Just saying a guy has more stats doesn't make him better if the environment he's playing in boosts stats. It's like comparing someone who hits in coors and someone who hits in san diego and saying their stats matter irregardless of where they play.

 

[beckdawg]

Doesn't change that while WAR can tell you a player is good, but it doesn't tell you what part of their game is making them that kind of good. Wong and Votto had the same WAR last season. It doesn't tell you that Wong was almost all defense and is probably a 6 hitter at best while Votto was even defensively and very easily a heart of the lineup guy. I know Votto's had bigger years and more of them. But for the whole of 2018, that algorithm said those two guys had the same value.

Slash lines aren't single moments. They're the accumulations of particular instances over time. They tell you a lot more about a player.

I hate to break this to you but it actually does if you look into it more. In any calculation of it there are various versions of offense value, defensive value and base running. The fact you don't want to look into how it works isn't a flaw with WAR. It's a flaw with you.

More to the point, I don't even really get what you're argument is here. Are you arguing that WAR is a bad stat but that SLG or various other stats are good? Because you do realize there are better analytic stats for specific things you are looking for right? SLG isn't really as strong as ISO if you're purely wanting to know someone's power output. But ISO isn't included in someone's triple slash.... well i mean it sort of is if you know how to calculate it since iso is just slg - ba. My point here is you seem to be saying WAR isn't giving you what you want..... but that's because it's not designed to give you the things you're looking for.

The entire point of WAR is to place a singular value on a player that encompasses everything they do well. Using a triple slash to illustrate how good a lead off hitter is vs a heart of the order hitter really doesn't do that because they are entirely different players. You may want high OBP from your lead off guy but high slugging and low BA from your clean up hitter. A triple slash doesn't give you a 1:1 comparison as to who is "better."

So sure if you're looking for something specific(let's say a lead off hitter in the cubs case) you can't just go to WAR and pick whoever the highest guy you can find is. But that's not how you're supposed to use it. A far better way to to use it is to look at each individual position on your team. If you have a particular position that is really low in comparison to the rest of the team you look to improve that position.

 

[beckdawg]

Also I assume you're using bWAR here because Wong and Votto aren't equal in fWAR. Wong was worth 2.8 fWAR. Votto was worth 3.5 fWAR. As I said earlier, that's why I like fWAR more because the results make more sense to me. Wong was roughly a league average hitter with great defense. 2 fWAR is a league average player so the fact he was gold glove type defense makes him slightly better than average. Votto was average at 1B and a 131 wRC+. Given the fact you expect 1B's to hit given their limited defense that seems appropriate.

 

[beckdawg]

Also FWIW, wOBA was developed by Tom Tango. Tom Tango was a member of the cubs staff in 2013. I think he left after 2016. So, actual MLB teams including the cubs value this sort of data.

 

[anotheridiot]

and yet again the (another) thread is hijacked to calculus class.

 

[beckdawg]

and yet again the (another) thread is hijacked to calculus class.

Sorry but the stuff is important because actual major league teams use this sort of information. In the past 3 years fangraphs has had at least 3 guys hired to actual MLB front offices. If you want to understand what's happening in the game you have to understand this sort of data. There's a "calculus" reason teams started using shifts. There's reasons teams started looking into launch angles. There's a reason high spin rate curve balls became in trend.

 

[CSF77]

https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/pla.../cubs-addison-russell-trade-attempt-offseason

 

[fatbeard]

It's 2019 and I still can't believe we have to deal with, "The nerds are ruining baseball!" posts. Look at the organizations of the last 15 years that have won a World Series (or multiple). The war is over. The nerds won.

 

[beckdawg]

It's 2019 and I still can't believe we have to deal with, "The nerds are ruining baseball!" posts. Look at the organizations of the last 15 years that have won a World Series (or multiple). The war is over. The nerds won.

[video=youtube;O5epuPMf-7Y]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5epuPMf-7Y[/video]

 

[fatbeard]

[video=youtube;XVCtkzIXYzQ]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XVCtkzIXYzQ[/video]

 

[CSF77]

Sad thing is after all of the info given some still are not willing to learn.

 

[chibears55]

https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/pla.../cubs-addison-russell-trade-attempt-offseason

I'm not surprised...
I still think they will trade him eventually and he won't play 1 inning with the cubs..

 

[fatbeard]

Sad thing is after all of the info given some still are not willing to learn.

These last few pages are pure gold:


"WAR is a bad stat because replacement value changes."



That doesn't matter. *Explains why*



"But WAR isn't reliable because it gives you different values!"



That's because you're looking at two different WAR calculations.


"But if there's two different calculations it must be a flawed stat!"

It's two different calculations because there are two different WAR stats.

"But if there's two different names it can't be one stat!"

It's...not...one...stat. *Explains why*

"But it relies on arbitrary values!"

It really doesn't, but that doesn't matter as long as the values are consistent.

"But WAR isn't detailed enough to tell you how a player is good, just that he is good."

Actually it can do that. There are individual offensive, defensive, and baserunning scores that go into it.

"But it's just a single metric of player value!"

That's exactly what it's meant to be.

"You nerds have ruined baseball!"

 

[CSF77]

I'm not surprised...
I still think they will trade him eventually and he won't play 1 inning with the cubs..

I don't see having any value until the suspension passes.

At that point his value is nil. And we have to take this at face value. They are going to have to pay him a pro-rated (18% off) 4.25M. So basically their best options are cut and save the dime or gamble that his value rebounds.

If I had to guess time solves most issues and short term memory will be based off of him on the field vs the current memory of him being a ass hole to women. (Allegedly)

 

[chibears55]

I don't see having any value until the suspension passes.

At that point his value is nil. And we have to take this at face value. They are going to have to pay him a pro-rated (18% off) 4.25M. So basically their best options are cut and save the dime or gamble that his value rebounds.

If I had to guess time solves most issues and short term memory will be based off of him on the field vs the current memory of him being a ass hole to women. (Allegedly)

I think he will get traded during ST

 

[CSF77]

I'm not surprised...
I still think they will trade him eventually and he won't play 1 inning with the cubs..

I think he will get traded during ST

Article pretty much said there were a few nibbles and they went away after his ex posted her against

 

[Castor76]

Never said it ruined the game. I said I don't like it. Never said it didn't have value. I said i find better value in other numbers. I never said those who like them are wrong.

 

[fatbeard]

I think he will get traded during ST

That doesn't make sense. The Cubs already tried to trade him at the start of the offseason and found no takers. His value is actually less now after the additional allegations by his girlfriend came out. They surely aren't going to find any takers now or during ST with a suspension still looming.