Offseason rumors/discussion thread

CSF77

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All your points are valid, but, even without Harper, so long as the players they have are healthy, are they not getting better?

They are over invested into replacement value or lesser talent. They did this with Boston. Built the team and than ran it into the ground. They are a better team after he left.

I think we are over valuing him because he won a ring. Well the red Sox have won 2 more after he left.

So he has his tendencies and with a more passive ownership it makes each mistake unfixable. Boston made some major trades to fix those screw ups with the Dodgers that turned into the first ring. Latest one IMO had more to do with the Yankee's imposing a spending restriction on them selves.

Regardless these issues were made by Theo. So Everytime that he says that they can't he should take ownership of why.
 

beckdawg

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You know what's crazy? In the first half of 2018 the cubs hit .265/.345/.426(107 wRC+) as a team. That's 4th best in the majors last year behind NYY(.252/.330/.463 114 wRC+), Houston(.261/.334/.433 114 wRC+) and Boston(.272/.339/.462 112 wRC+) and clearly all of those teams have an advantage because of the DH. If you remove pitchers from that first half the cubs positional players hit .276/.357/.444 for a 116 wRC+ which was the best in baseball. In the second half of the season that dropped to .256/.324/.402(95 wRC+). They were largely fine in July hitting .277/.360/.432(115 wRC+). August they dropped to .258/.326/.419(99 wRC+). Sept they were .244/.310/.375(84 wRC+). It's even more interesting when you consider that of the 93 first half games Baez played 91, Almora played 86, Russell 85, Schwarber 83, Contreras 82, Happ 82, Zobrist 78, Heyward 77 and Bryant only 70. So, if you view Heyward and Bryant as typical starters they missed ~10-15 games each.

I know people thing it's a cop out to blame wear and tear of that horrid stretch in August but it certainly seems pretty compelling when you look at these numbers. Clearly something happened because you don't hit as the best team in baseball for 4 months and suddenly fall off a cliff like that if you're just "bad."

It's just really interesting to me when you look at that because it's easy to forget given the way the season ended that the offense was actually that good. In fact, it kinda gets lost in the shuffle but if you actually go back and look at the first 4 months it really was the starting pitching that let the team down quite a bit namely with Darvish and Chatwood being pretty terrible and Q being pretty meh. Given the way the pitching ended the season and with Hamels back and hopefully a healthy Darvish, the pitching very well could be a vast improvement over the 2018 team. If Bryant is back to being healthy and Rizzo hits like he should then maybe things aren't as bad as people would have you believe.

All that makes me wonder should they really spend the money if they have it on Harper? Don't get me wrong if they have money to spend certainly there's areas to improve but I feel like you could make a better team by spending it on the bullpen after looking at those numbers.
 

anotheridiot

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You know that the starters are a fan based judgement. And the vast majority of fans have no clue other than vote for major names or teams.

Contreras is a poor catcher. If he is not hitting then he is losing you more games than winning. Shutting down a running game is a very small aspect of the most advanced position in baseball.

Yeah, I know, you want home run hitters to take walks, and you need a catcher to steal strikes since your pitchers cant hit the corners consistently. Forget about catching the ball and picking off runners. Get back to me when Contrares is not making a million dollars to start knit picking. We should have gotten Grandal for 18 million one year deal?
 

CSF77

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CSF77

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Yeah, I know, you want home run hitters to take walks, and you need a catcher to steal strikes since your pitchers cant hit the corners consistently. Forget about catching the ball and picking off runners. Get back to me when Contrares is not making a million dollars to start knit picking. We should have gotten Grandal for 18 million one year deal?

Again it really wasn't about the Cubs not going after Grandal.

It was about the Brewers getting a premiere talent and the Cubs are handcuffed by poor decision making.
 

Castor76

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https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899425

FRAA: Grandal was at 17.7. JT 4.3 Contreras -15.4 2nd to worst in baseball.

He had a 100 wRC+ Neutral O.

So ya he is kinda over rated because of some sexy throws and he doesn't suck at blocking pitches. But as far as the nuts and bolts go FRAA_ADJ: -15.0 So ya he is at the bottom of the barrel as a catcher and is vastly over rated.

So then why did you balk so much at the idea of trading Contreras in a package for Kluber that included Roberto Perez? Perez is very good at framing, something you've pointed out Contreras is bad at. It would get rid of one of the "bad decisions" and improve an area of need you say the Cubs have.
 

fatbeard

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https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1899425

FRAA: Grandal was at 17.7. JT 4.3 Contreras -15.4 2nd to worst in baseball.

He had a 100 wRC+ Neutral O.

So ya he is kinda over rated because of some sexy throws and he doesn't suck at blocking pitches. But as far as the nuts and bolts go FRAA_ADJ: -15.0 So ya he is at the bottom of the barrel as a catcher and is vastly over rated.

Now do 2016 and 2017, instead of just the year the entire offense went in the tank.

I'll wait.
 

CSF77

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Now do 2016 and 2017, instead of just the year the entire offense went in the tank.

I'll wait.

His framing outweighed both his blocking and throwing. The math is there to back it. Right now he is a neutral and a negative. Sadly it is a negative that affects the pitching staff.

If there is one place that you sacrifice O it is not SS or CF. It is catcher.
 

brett05

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You know what's crazy? In the first half of 2018 the cubs hit .265/.345/.426(107 wRC+) as a team. That's 4th best in the majors last year behind NYY(.252/.330/.463 114 wRC+), Houston(.261/.334/.433 114 wRC+) and Boston(.272/.339/.462 112 wRC+) and clearly all of those teams have an advantage because of the DH. If you remove pitchers from that first half the cubs positional players hit .276/.357/.444 for a 116 wRC+ which was the best in baseball. In the second half of the season that dropped to .256/.324/.402(95 wRC+). They were largely fine in July hitting .277/.360/.432(115 wRC+). August they dropped to .258/.326/.419(99 wRC+). Sept they were .244/.310/.375(84 wRC+). It's even more interesting when you consider that of the 93 first half games Baez played 91, Almora played 86, Russell 85, Schwarber 83, Contreras 82, Happ 82, Zobrist 78, Heyward 77 and Bryant only 70. So, if you view Heyward and Bryant as typical starters they missed ~10-15 games each.

I know people thing it's a cop out to blame wear and tear of that horrid stretch in August but it certainly seems pretty compelling when you look at these numbers. Clearly something happened because you don't hit as the best team in baseball for 4 months and suddenly fall off a cliff like that if you're just "bad."

It's just really interesting to me when you look at that because it's easy to forget given the way the season ended that the offense was actually that good. In fact, it kinda gets lost in the shuffle but if you actually go back and look at the first 4 months it really was the starting pitching that let the team down quite a bit namely with Darvish and Chatwood being pretty terrible and Q being pretty meh. Given the way the pitching ended the season and with Hamels back and hopefully a healthy Darvish, the pitching very well could be a vast improvement over the 2018 team. If Bryant is back to being healthy and Rizzo hits like he should then maybe things aren't as bad as people would have you believe.

All that makes me wonder should they really spend the money if they have it on Harper? Don't get me wrong if they have money to spend certainly there's areas to improve but I feel like you could make a better team by spending it on the bullpen after looking at those numbers.

Great insight.

Only part I think you are wrong is with Q. He was either really awful for a small stretch, or really solid. Mostly it was Joe having a lack of trust in Q for whatever reason Joe has.
 

beckdawg

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Great insight.

Only part I think you are wrong is with Q. He was either really awful for a small stretch, or really solid. Mostly it was Joe having a lack of trust in Q for whatever reason Joe has.

Well that's kind of what i mean re: q. He wasn't terrible but he wasn't great either. Maybe you're right I should have said something better like inconsistent but suffice to say my point was more that he wasn't pitching like the guy that we know he can be or the guy he was for the last ~2 months of the season.
 

anotheridiot

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Again it really wasn't about the Cubs not going after Grandal.

It was about the Brewers getting a premiere talent and the Cubs are handcuffed by poor decision making.

The poor decision making was not playing Jiminez to start the year, keep the veteran the pitchers go to on the bench, who knows what it might have done with Darvish. But you cannot undo what was done.

You go into framing and put it all on the catcher. Look at the pitchers Grandal worked with. You have guys that just flat out get calls because you are not trying to pull a ball in from 6 inches off the plate. You have pitchers hitting corners consistently so when you steal one, its easier for the umpire to let go. You also dont get a guy like Lester screaming at the ump at pitches that are not even close going against you. The only pinpoint location is sometimes with Hendricks, lester has it one game and expects calls the next.

Just like the WAR numbers, there are variables beyond the control of the catcher for stealing strikes.

I want the electronic k zone so bad to get this stupid variable out of the game.
 

beckdawg

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Gordon Wittenmyer
@GDubCub
Schwarber avoids arbitration, signs for $3.39m
 

TC in Mississippi

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LeMahieu to the Yankees, out on Machado. Players getting squeezed again. We're in for a serious work stoppage in 2021.
 

beckdawg

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What'll be interesting is if that means Philly gets Machado because I don't think they are realistically going to be able to sign Harper. While I'm sure some will say Harper to the sox in that case but I still don't believe the sox will pay anyone that kind of money and there's really nothing anyone can say to change my mind until they actually do it. Regardless, if that is what happens.... then what re Harper? I suppose maybe there's LA but they seem to only be interested in a short term deal with him.
 

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