Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

I was looking more into that Bote idea... this is the current depth chart for SD's starters...

Joey Lucchesi - 2018 ERA/FIP 4.08/4.31
Robbie Erlin - 6.23/3.87
Eric Lauer - 4.34/4.51
Brett Kennedy - 6.75/6.31
Chris Paddack - Really good year in A+ and AA but hasn't pitched above AA where he had 37.2 innings
Dinelson Lamet - Didn't pitch in 2018
Bryan Mitchell - 4.61/5.76
Jacob Nix - 7.02/5.83
Luis Perdomo - 7.38/4.33

Chatwood had a terrible year at 5.16/5.61 ERA/FIP obviously but when you consider the names above... He's probably enough of an improvement to crack their starting 5. And given he's only on a 2 year deal which while shitty for the cubs isn't that expensive, sorta plays well with SD who has Gore and various other prospects like Paddack that need a bit more seasoning. And obviously if you can fix chatwood's command he could be a very nice bargain play.

Anyways, that has me wondering if there is some form of deal where the cubs send Bote and Chatwood plus maybe even something else minor to just clear chatwood for maybe like... a crummy lefty reliever. Obviously the Pads would have to actually want Chatwood but as a cubs fan if they can make that deal even if it's just for cash or a PTBNL type return I think i'm pulling the trigger because I think you could largely get the same type of play out of Trent Giambrone who has a bit more positional flexibility.

I can't see them picking up Chatwood unless the Cubs absorb 3/4 of the deal.

 

[beckdawg]

I can't see them picking up Chatwood unless the Cubs absorb 3/4 of the deal.

I mean they're getting Bote as well as potentially a minor piece. If you assume Bote is a 2-3 win player his surplus value is well over the $25.5 mil Chatwood is owed.

 

[CSF77]

I mean they're getting Bote as well as potentially a minor piece. If you assume Bote is a 2-3 win player his surplus value is well over the $25.5 mil Chatwood is owed.

That is a huge assumption basied off of limited exposure.

If they are looking at Bote it is due to cost effective answer. They could just sign Moose for 3B. So that means they really don't want to over pay.

That article had nothing in it saying Chatwood potential trade spot. It was more so Cubs didn't want to trade Russell but a good spot to flip Bote for a BP arm.

 

[CSF77]

I think I have to push this out plain.

The Cubs will never find a cost relief via Chatwood. He is dead weight right now. He is making 13M per year while walking 1 guy per inning. Teams can find better answers on the waver wire at league min.

To add to this they lack a impact prospect to entice a team to take that payroll.

So as much as most want this this a horse that is quite dead by now.

 

[anotheridiot]

I mean they're getting Bote as well as potentially a minor piece. If you assume Bote is a 2-3 win player his surplus value is well over the $25.5 mil Chatwood is owed.

They have a pretty good record of picking up fringe cub 3Bmen, and Christian went off to Japan. I am not sure if Bote will ever lead the league in home runs during a season, but we will never know since he wont play enough here. All we know is Bote did more than Christian ever did here.

 

[beckdawg]

I think I have to push this out plain.

The Cubs will never find a cost relief via Chatwood. He is dead weight right now. He is making 13M per year while walking 1 guy per inning. Teams can find better answers on the waver wire at league min.

To add to this they lack a impact prospect to entice a team to take that payroll.

So as much as most want this this a horse that is quite dead by now.

Pitching market hasn't even moved this offseason. Its not just Chatwood. Other than Corbin what has happened? Think things will eventually start moving and teams that lose out on guys will go to 2nd and 3rd options.

Also re: Mouse, they may not want a guy for that length of time. Hudson Potts is their best 3B prospect and he's at least 3 years away.

 

[beckdawg]

Pitching market hasn't even moved this offseason. Its not just Chatwood. Other than Corbin what has happened? Think things will eventually start moving and teams that lose out on guys will go to 2nd and 3rd options.

Also re: Mouse, they may not want a guy for that length of time. Hudson Potts is their best 3B prospect and he's at least 3 years away.

Also Re: the pads were reportedly looking at Gray early in the offseason. So, it's not as though they haven't been looking at bounce back pitchers.

 

[CSF77]

Pitching market hasn't even moved this offseason. Its not just Chatwood. Other than Corbin what has happened? Think things will eventually start moving and teams that lose out on guys will go to 2nd and 3rd options.

Also re: Mouse, they may not want a guy for that length of time. Hudson Potts is their best 3B prospect and he's at least 3 years away.

Harper and Machado have held up that market also. When those 2 move then the larger chips will dislodge. Committing to a major pitching payment will close the door to those 2.

Chatwood sucked. Stop trying to place fake value on him. The reality is either the Cubs play him and cross their fingers or they don't. That is it. Wondering the don't bit is pointless. And hoping another GM is stupid is well stupid.

 

[CSF77]

The best case is not hoping for a miracle. The best case is he returns to who he was and another team suffers a major injury opening up opertunity.

 

[beckdawg]

Chatwood sucked. Stop trying to place fake value on him. The reality is either the Cubs play him and cross their fingers or they don't. That is it. Wondering the don't bit is pointless. And hoping another GM is stupid is well stupid.

Edwin Jackson had a starting job with the A's in 2018. The same Edwin Jackson that was run out of town in a similar fashion to what fans currently want to run Chatwood out of town. So don't give me this BS that he has 0 value. There is a value there. It's not $12-13 mil a season but were he a FA someone would sign him in the hopes that he'd reach his potential. Teams are giving 2 year deals to guys who aren't even going to pitch this year.

Now sure Chatwood's cost has to come down in some manner to make the gamble worth it for teams. I'm not debating that. But a league average guy like Bote has value especially when you consider how much team control he has left. I mean for the sake of argument let's say he's a 2 win player for the next 6 years. That'd put his value at roughly ~$96 mil. He's going to be pre-arb for the next 3 years and then has 3 arb years. So you're talking something like a cost of $2 mil for the next 3 years and for the sake of argument let's say $3 mil in arb 1, $5 mil in arb 2 and $7 mil in arb 3 for a total of $15 mil. In other words, $20 mil in total give or take and if he is actually a 2 win player for those 6 years you're talking about a $76 mil surplus value.

How much do the Pads like Bote? Hard to say but you have to imagine they came to the cubs not the other way around. Cubs don't have much motivation to trade bote unless they are getting something out of it. So, given that logic you have to assume they like Bote. I also think it's quite logical to imagine they really don't want to give up much of their talented farm to upgrade their 3B. This is likely especially true given they are reportedly trying to land Kluber. One way of making that sort of upgrade would be to take on salary which they likely wouldn't care about given how young and cheap their roster is.

Do I know that they would do something like Chatwood + Bote for next to nothing in return? No. I'm merely saying it makes sense from their perspective if they do indeed like Bote. They would effectively be getting him for $25.5 mil and would also have an outside chance of getting something out of Chatwood given how terrible their starting pitching depth is. I personally think the deal is fair as things stand today but for the sake of argument say chatwood pitches to his career numbers... the deal looks even better then. Admittedly a career 4.44/4.72 ERA/FIP isn't that exciting but you put him in a pitchers park it's going to help. And I mean as #5 starters go $12 mil/season isn't *that* much of an over pay. They can easily cost $7-8 mil in FA. And as I showed above, it's not like the guys they have in house are world beaters. He could easily win the 4 or 5 slot in that rotation as things stand today with a half decent spring.

 

[Castor76]

More to the point, would any of us complain if Bote and Chatwood were traded for a B- to C- level prospect if it shed the contract?

 

[Diehardfan]

Harper and Machado have held up that market also. When those 2 move then the larger chips will dislodge. Committing to a major pitching payment will close the door to those 2.

Chatwood sucked. Stop trying to place fake value on him. The reality is either the Cubs play him and cross their fingers or they don't. That is it. Wondering the don't bit is pointless. And hoping another GM is stupid is well stupid.

Might be the most asinine statement I've seen in awhile. I would venture a guess that every single GM in any of the pro sports have made "stupid" moves and they've done it multiple times.

These people are not what you'd call geniuses.....

 

[anotheridiot]

Edwin Jackson had a starting job with the A's in 2018. The same Edwin Jackson that was run out of town in a similar fashion to what fans currently want to run Chatwood out of town. So don't give me this BS that he has 0 value. There is a value there. It's not $12-13 mil a season but were he a FA someone would sign him in the hopes that he'd reach his potential. Teams are giving 2 year deals to guys who aren't even going to pitch this year.

Now sure Chatwood's cost has to come down in some manner to make the gamble worth it for teams. I'm not debating that. But a league average guy like Bote has value especially when you consider how much team control he has left. I mean for the sake of argument let's say he's a 2 win player for the next 6 years. That'd put his value at roughly ~$96 mil. He's going to be pre-arb for the next 3 years and then has 3 arb years. So you're talking something like a cost of $2 mil for the next 3 years and for the sake of argument let's say $3 mil in arb 1, $5 mil in arb 2 and $7 mil in arb 3 for a total of $15 mil. In other words, $20 mil in total give or take and if he is actually a 2 win player for those 6 years you're talking about a $76 mil surplus value.

How much do the Pads like Bote? Hard to say but you have to imagine they came to the cubs not the other way around. Cubs don't have much motivation to trade bote unless they are getting something out of it. So, given that logic you have to assume they like Bote. I also think it's quite logical to imagine they really don't want to give up much of their talented farm to upgrade their 3B. This is likely especially true given they are reportedly trying to land Kluber. One way of making that sort of upgrade would be to take on salary which they likely wouldn't care about given how young and cheap their roster is.

Do I know that they would do something like Chatwood + Bote for next to nothing in return? No. I'm merely saying it makes sense from their perspective if they do indeed like Bote. They would effectively be getting him for $25.5 mil and would also have an outside chance of getting something out of Chatwood given how terrible their starting pitching depth is. I personally think the deal is fair as things stand today but for the sake of argument say chatwood pitches to his career numbers... the deal looks even better then. Admittedly a career 4.44/4.72 ERA/FIP isn't that exciting but you put him in a pitchers park it's going to help. And I mean as #5 starters go $12 mil/season isn't *that* much of an over pay. They can easily cost $7-8 mil in FA. And as I showed above, it's not like the guys they have in house are world beaters. He could easily win the 4 or 5 slot in that rotation as things stand today with a half decent spring.

they have plenty of motivation to trade bote, because he will be in AAA when Russell returns and there will be even less value for him.

Its pretty amazing, but Chatwood only needs to let up on his stuff to find his control. He was without a doubt the guy with the most movement on the team last year. He is a guy that needs to start outside the zone to find the zone. If he starts in, there is no way the ball is staying in. He also has the herky jerk motion that could be improved upon.

As far as bring ing Edwin Jackson into this, the cubs paid him an 8 million signing bonus and 11 million a year. As far as him pitching for the A's last year, it was for 1.5 million, so that is really not a good comparison.

 

[CSF77]

Edwin Jackson had a starting job with the A's in 2018. The same Edwin Jackson that was run out of town in a similar fashion to what fans currently want to run Chatwood out of town. So don't give me this BS that he has 0 value. There is a value there. It's not $12-13 mil a season but were he a FA someone would sign him in the hopes that he'd reach his potential. Teams are giving 2 year deals to guys who aren't even going to pitch this year.

Now sure Chatwood's cost has to come down in some manner to make the gamble worth it for teams. I'm not debating that. But a league average guy like Bote has value especially when you consider how much team control he has left. I mean for the sake of argument let's say he's a 2 win player for the next 6 years. That'd put his value at roughly ~$96 mil. He's going to be pre-arb for the next 3 years and then has 3 arb years. So you're talking something like a cost of $2 mil for the next 3 years and for the sake of argument let's say $3 mil in arb 1, $5 mil in arb 2 and $7 mil in arb 3 for a total of $15 mil. In other words, $20 mil in total give or take and if he is actually a 2 win player for those 6 years you're talking about a $76 mil surplus value.

How much do the Pads like Bote? Hard to say but you have to imagine they came to the cubs not the other way around. Cubs don't have much motivation to trade bote unless they are getting something out of it. So, given that logic you have to assume they like Bote. I also think it's quite logical to imagine they really don't want to give up much of their talented farm to upgrade their 3B. This is likely especially true given they are reportedly trying to land Kluber. One way of making that sort of upgrade would be to take on salary which they likely wouldn't care about given how young and cheap their roster is.

Do I know that they would do something like Chatwood + Bote for next to nothing in return? No. I'm merely saying it makes sense from their perspective if they do indeed like Bote. They would effectively be getting him for $25.5 mil and would also have an outside chance of getting something out of Chatwood given how terrible their starting pitching depth is. I personally think the deal is fair as things stand today but for the sake of argument say chatwood pitches to his career numbers... the deal looks even better then. Admittedly a career 4.44/4.72 ERA/FIP isn't that exciting but you put him in a pitchers park it's going to help. And I mean as #5 starters go $12 mil/season isn't *that* much of an over pay. They can easily cost $7-8 mil in FA. And as I showed above, it's not like the guys they have in house are world beaters. He could easily win the 4 or 5 slot in that rotation as things stand today with a half decent spring.

Dude you have to look at the whole issue. He had no value then he built it up and regained value by his own efforts.

That is it nothing else. Chatwood is costing 26 mil and holds a negative war value. That is his value right now. When/if he regains value then he will be reassessed accordingly.

GM's don't trade for bad contracts unless they can rid themselves.

So Theo made his bed. That is it. He would be stupid to toss quality players away just to fix his screw up. So that leaves flip bads or reinvent Chatwood into a needed cog.

Seriously here. They need pen arms. Chatwood fixed quaifies as that. It is backwards value but it becomes value at that point

I see this as you are looking for a way to add Harper and that is causing you to step back from your quality postings. Is Harper going to make or break them? I really don't see it that way. If that was the case then payroll be damned and they will do what it takes.

I think as is they can win it all. It may take a bit of trust in things working out right

 

[CSF77]

As far as the pen goes I would go in with Strop and Cishek as my 8/9 in April. Morrow has to earn it back. Edwards would be the swing guy here.

After that it would be more lower leverage situations. You would like a legit loogy but with Montgomery back in the pen it really lessens it.

It is not ideal but the they guys that they do have. Kintzler, Duesing and Chatwood have all been major league players for years. They are not suffering from diminished skills. So it comes down to bringing them back to what they were. And that is coaching

 

[beckdawg]

So Theo made his bed. That is it. He would be stupid to toss quality players away just to fix his screw up.

You and I have different definitions of "quality players." I mean Bote is fine for what he is but it's not like the cubs need him. And personally I think Trent Giambrone is a better version of what Bote brings to the table. Bote probably has a slightly better bat but Giambrone stole 26 bases last year and can play SS as a back up.

Either way, I don't really see how trading Bote changes anything for the cubs over the next 3-5 years. Even if Giambrone isn't good, you're likely looking at Nico taking that swing infield role sooner rather than later. You're not gonna start Bote at 3B or 2B when you have Bryant and Zobrist/Happ this year and Happ/Nico the following.

And for the record, I don't think this sort of move really has any impact on Harper. I see it as trading Bote/Chatwood for two quality relievers you could buy with the ~$13 mil in luxury tax he is owed. I mean that's what Strop and Cishek are making.

 

[CSF77]

You and I have different definitions of "quality players." I mean Bote is fine for what he is but it's not like the cubs need him. And personally I think Trent Giambrone is a better version of what Bote brings to the table. Bote probably has a slightly better bat but Giambrone stole 26 bases last year and can play SS as a back up.

Either way, I don't really see how trading Bote changes anything for the cubs over the next 3-5 years. Even if Giambrone isn't good, you're likely looking at Nico taking that swing infield role sooner rather than later. You're not gonna start Bote at 3B or 2B when you have Bryant and Zobrist/Happ this year and Happ/Nico the following.

And for the record, I don't think this sort of move really has any impact on Harper. I see it as trading Bote/Chatwood for two quality relievers you could buy with the ~$13 mil in luxury tax he is owed. I mean that's what Strop and Cishek are making.

I would consider using him in a LF platoon myself. His splits favor LH then have him in as the main RHPH. it would be the counter point to the new guy they signed.

Happ and Almora's are kinda a tandim in CF based off of splits also. Heyward is split neutral right now.

But with Bote they also can move Bryant to LF and him to 3B which is basically the same answer.

It comes down to Schwarber becoming more split neutral then Bote becomes more expendable.

 

[beckdawg]

I would consider using him in a LF platoon myself. His splits favor LH then have him in as the main RHPH. it would be the counter point to the new guy they signed.

Happ and Almora's are kinda a tandim in CF based off of splits also. Heyward is split neutral right now.

But with Bote they also can move Bryant to LF and him to 3B which is basically the same answer.

It comes down to Schwarber becoming more split neutral then Bote becomes more expendable.

If you're platooning because of Schwarber why is it Bote? Like, the way i see their current roster is Zobrist RF, Heyward CF and Schwarber LF vs RHP with Happ at 2B. Against LHP, I think you'd go with Heyward in RF, Almora in CF and take your pick of Zobrist/Happ at LF/2B if you want to sit Schwarber vs LHP. That's typically how joe has used Zobrist.

More to the point, I don't think Bote is particularly impressive in a platoon role. He K'd 30.2% vs LHP which was the better of his two splits and his BABIP was pretty high at .375. It's also only 51 PAs vs the 133 PAs they gave him vs RHP which tells me they don't particularly see him as overtly strong vs LHP. Typically you see about 25% LHP for a full time player which is right in that range.

And to be clear on that first paragraph, that can obviously change depending on who if anyone they end up signing. I'm just saying given their respective talent level and future with the team that's how I'd be playing guys they currently have rostered.

 

[CSF77]

If you're platooning because of Schwarber why is it Bote? Like, the way i see their current roster is Zobrist RF, Heyward CF and Schwarber LF vs RHP with Happ at 2B. Against LHP, I think you'd go with Heyward in RF, Almora in CF and take your pick of Zobrist/Happ at LF/2B if you want to sit Schwarber vs LHP. That's typically how joe has used Zobrist.

More to the point, I don't think Bote is particularly impressive in a platoon role. He K'd 30.2% vs LHP which was the better of his two splits and his BABIP was pretty high at .375. It's also only 51 PAs vs the 133 PAs they gave him vs RHP which tells me they don't particularly see him as overtly strong vs LHP. Typically you see about 25% LHP for a full time player which is right in that range.

And to be clear on that first paragraph, that can obviously change depending on who if anyone they end up signing. I'm just saying given their respective talent level and future with the team that's how I'd be playing guys they currently have rostered.

I think Zo will be the main 2B in April so his playing time is condenced it other needs.

Sure when Russell returns the dynamic changes. But they have 40 days to plow through.

 

[CSF77]

The hardest and easiest answer is Schwarber. Right now his is a platoon player. His value is trending right and holds what is it 3 years.

If you were looking to trade out contract to get Harper then he is the logical decision. The potential is there to get a needed transaction that frees up cash for Harper.

But it is a huge gamble on Schwarber because the numbers really suggest breakout but they also suggest platoon split.

It is almost a gamble that I would do to get Harper in and move Chatwood out.

I really can see a few teams tempted honestly just by the improvements made and the game changing potential

For me it is 3 years of control or long term control.