Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[anotheridiot]

Problem is, teams are not offering mega deals to guys hitting 29-30 anymore. The downside risk of injury/age regression is too great, and teams have the data to prove it. If Harper and Machado want to cash in, they have to do it while they're in their mid-20s.

I dont know, maybe its also trying to allow teams to keep their developed guys. For some reason, they thought 300 million was a slap in the face from Washington. We dont know if Baltimore tried to get a commitment from Machado while they were waiting to deal him. Right now their other centerpiece in center field is still unsigned. Lot of guys will be living out of suitcases in their new towns.

 

[fatbeard]

I dont know, maybe its also trying to allow teams to keep their developed guys.

It's both. Analytics have made it possible to reliably identify and develop talent at younger ages. It's why there are more and more young stars in baseball than ever before. Teams are more likely to stick with their guys because they have confidence in their own assessments, and get the economic advantage of cheap team control years as well.

 

[anotheridiot]

It's both. Analytics have made it possible to reliably identify and develop talent at younger ages. It's why there are more and more young stars in baseball than ever before. Teams are more likely to stick with their guys because they have confidence in their own assessments, and get the economic advantage of cheap team control years as well.

I meant it in the sense that Washington made a solid 300 million dollar offer. Unless it was for 12 or 15 years, it sure seemed fair at the time, especially after a down season. It almost makes me think these guys are trying to save face by waiting for someone to beat it, and nobody is. Jakes ended up with most probably unreachable incentives to save some face. I highly doubt all teams have gentlemen in their front office to have eachothers backs, but I expect in one case, you can say Washington may not go after Bryant since the cubs did not go after Harper, and maybe some other teams are hoping the same when their superstars hit the market.

Last year, the cubs seemed solid with Jake at 115, he ended up getting 75, expected 200. I think Baltimore tried before they gave up on Machado, this year Washington made their pitch to Harper, while fans call the owners greedy.

 

[beckdawg]

Cubs Prospects
@cubprospects
In 2016, the Cubs didn’t have a draft pick until Pick 104. Those drafts tend to be throwaways.

In 2019, we may see up to 9 players from that draft reach AAA Iowa, perhaps even a couple in Chicago.

Mekkes, Brothers Short, Miller, Giambrone, Swarmer, Hatch, Rucker, Robinson.

pretty interesting

 

[CSF77]

Honestly, **** the union.

The dynamic needs to change some when it comes to signing 30-32 YO players. But as far as a 26 YO with 25 WAR each going in? There is no reason why a team wouldn't extend a 10/300 offer.

I think what screwed it was Boras going in and setting the bar at 13/325M that Stanton got.

ARod got 10/275 in 2008
then 252 in 2000 with the Rangers.
Cabrera 8/248Mil
Cano 10/240 tied with Pujos.

So this is what I feel. Miami did a stupid thing and sold Stanton off to NYY. Rangers did the same thing and sold him off to NYY also.

So this could end up being a thing. Sign with a small market and sell to a big market later in. Makes sense then.

The teams that did end up doing a mega ended up suffering for it. Miggy was great and now he is not. Pujos same thing. Absorbing contract that he is not earning.

So I get it that teams are reluctant to sign a Stanton type deal. What I don't understand is why they don't go to the 10/300M tier. Control age 26-36 at 30AAV. That is above what ARod got in his prime as the primer talent of the league. That should be the bar and not what a poor management team did in Mia.

 

[JimJohnson]

The dynamic needs to change some when it comes to signing 30-32 YO players. But as far as a 26 YO with 25 WAR each going in? There is no reason why a team wouldn't extend a 10/300 offer.

I think what screwed it was Boras going in and setting the bar at 13/325M that Stanton got.

ARod got 10/275 in 2008
then 252 in 2000 with the Rangers.
Cabrera 8/248Mil
Cano 10/240 tied with Pujos.

So this is what I feel. Miami did a stupid thing and sold Stanton off to NYY. Rangers did the same thing and sold him off to NYY also.

So this could end up being a thing. Sign with a small market and sell to a big market later in. Makes sense then.

The teams that did end up doing a mega ended up suffering for it. Miggy was great and now he is not. Pujos same thing. Absorbing contract that he is not earning.

So I get it that teams are reluctant to sign a Stanton type deal. What I don't understand is why they don't go to the 10/300M tier. Control age 26-36 at 30AAV. That is above what ARod got in his prime as the primer talent of the league. That should be the bar and not what a poor management team did in Mia.

The Nats offered Bryce 10/$300 million during the season. He rejected it. So that's his problem.

 

[beckdawg]

Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales
Cubs sign free agent reliever Tony Barnette to one-year deal plus option for 2020.

Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales
$750,000 for 2019, plus incentives. Club option for 2020 $3 million

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...itcher-luke-hagerty-improbable-comeback-story

pretty interesting read

 

[beckdawg]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...itcher-luke-hagerty-improbable-comeback-story

pretty interesting read

Also re: this even if he doesn't make it as a player i can see the cubs brining him in as a mental skills coach. Putting him with someone like Albertos who struggled similarly last year isn't a terrible idea either.

 

[chibears55]

Here you go..
ESPN just added this game
Harper return to DC on prime time
[emoji6]

https://twitter.com/MDGonzales/status/1091446205685682176?s=19

 

[CSF77]

Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales
Cubs sign free agent reliever Tony Barnette to one-year deal plus option for 2020.

Mark Gonzales
@MDGonzales
$750,000 for 2019, plus incentives. Club option for 2020 $3 million

Health is the issue with him. 2017 had finger issues then last year shoulder. But was very successful in Japan and when healthy he held a 2.39 ERA with 8.9 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9 and a 51.4 percent ground-ball rate in 26 1/3 2018. 2.09 ERA in 60 1/3 innings during his rookie season.

So I don't dislike a 750K flyer here. If he beats out Duesing or Kintzler it really doesn't impact the payroll and the opt is a team opt.

 

[CSF77]

The Nats offered Bryce 10/$300 million during the season. He rejected it. So that's his problem.

That was in season and Boras has always been a F/A market dictates value guy. That was a failed gamble. IMO Harper wanted to be a Cub and passed to keep the door opened to CHC. Theo wanted him in. Tom was not willing to go over budget. Now the market went sour puss with the top spenders keeping under tax. In the aftermath, CHW pushed a puss offer. Philly is gross and SDP is a ok stadium and all. But they want Manny more. And after seeing Manny push a .300 BA and 37 HR I get it. Better D. Plays a more vital role on the team. Over all better talent. Even though he does like to kick players when needed.

But in all seriousness Manny is the better buy. Harper has some warts going in and had only 1 MVP quality season going in. He is not the top hitter in baseball. He really isn't. If anything he is a 130 wRC+ hitter. Which is very good with real holes on D. But we most likely will get that out of Schwarber with out the shit OF D. Wouldn't shock me to see Schwarber post a 140 wRC+ next year.

So I kinda get it how teams have been at the 25 AAV vs 30 AAV. He is more hype. Manny on the other hand looks more of a 30 AAV because he can play GG 3B as a fall back plan to a higher valued SS.

 

[anotheridiot]

But in all seriousness Manny is the better buy. Harper has some warts going in and had only 1 MVP quality season going in. He is not the top hitter in baseball. He really isn't. If anything he is a 130 wRC+ hitter. Which is very good with real holes on D. But we most likely will get that out of Schwarber with out the shit OF D. Wouldn't shock me to see Schwarber post a 140 wRC+ next year.

But you argue every time I suggest letting him have a pitcher and allowing him to catch someone. Shit OF D is something you can say from Schwarber when he started playing out there. Why cant you give the guy any credit for improving? He cant hit lefties, well, you gotta see lefties to hit lefties and one every 100 at bats is not enough. Problem is, Schwarbs could hit lefties, could become a very good left fielder (some think he is already there) and he would still be pulled late in games with our hippie manager stuck in the past just like you.

 

[TL1961]

But you argue every time I suggest letting him have a pitcher and allowing him to catch someone. Shit OF D is something you can say from Schwarber when he started playing out there. Why cant you give the guy any credit for improving? He cant hit lefties, well, you gotta see lefties to hit lefties and one every 100 at bats is not enough. Problem is, Schwarbs could hit lefties, could become a very good left fielder (some think he is already there) and he would still be pulled late in games with our hippie manager stuck in the past just like you.

There is no positive to having Schwarber catch. He can't do it. There is no reason whatsoever to have him in the lineup as a catcher. Not for one pitcher, not once a week or once every ten days or twenty days. There s no upside to doing that.

 

[CSF77]

Well Schwarber posted a 2 DRS up from a -9. Catcher he was at -3 over all.

So he has the tenasity to improve to league avg.

But they already have that at catcher. But with a better arm and pop time and blocking ability.

Both are bat first talents. But as far as catcher goes Schwarber is the lesser talent.

 

[CSF77]

But you argue every time I suggest letting him have a pitcher and allowing him to catch someone. Shit OF D is something you can say from Schwarber when he started playing out there. Why cant you give the guy any credit for improving? He cant hit lefties, well, you gotta see lefties to hit lefties and one every 100 at bats is not enough. Problem is, Schwarbs could hit lefties, could become a very good left fielder (some think he is already there) and he would still be pulled late in games with our hippie manager stuck in the past just like you.

In regards to hitting lefties:. I kind of agree with you but players at this level are not going to improve much. To get here they are at the Apex of the curve. So what they are limited to is adjustments. We saw this with Heyward to his detrment. Changing his swing all of the time but these are adjustments. He has always his left and right equal.

I just see Kyle out there for his bat. His glove is a neutral effect so that doesn't gain him any love. So if he has a gap in his game that has not improved then you have to close is by other means.

His ISO was .079 vs .261. You can't pass that off as a adjustment issue.

 

[CSF77]

Well guess a executive with the Brewers leaked that Harper and Boras just circled back to the Cubs. Which was expected when he had his best offer to see if Theo matches.

What I read, and it makes sense is Tom would have to ok a payroll increase and then they would have to deal out a OF for a quality return then. They like Heyward and it is doubtful they would go there or receive a quality return.

I think there are 2 players left if they did this. Almora or Schwarber and it would be all about trading for a leverage pen arm then.

Over all it would be a 180 on what they said and this feels like keeping things professional because of the in-house Boras clients

 

[chibears55]

Well guess a executive with the Brewers leaked that Harper and Boras just circled back to the Cubs. Which was expected when he had his best offer to see if Theo matches.

What I read, and it makes sense is Tom would have to ok a payroll increase and then they would have to deal out a OF for a quality return then. They like Heyward and it is doubtful they would go there or receive a quality return.

I think there are 2 players left if they did this. Almora or Schwarber and it would be all about trading for a leverage pen arm then.

Over all it would be a 180 on what they said and this feels like keeping things professional because of the in-house Boras clients

It mind boggling to me to actually think Tom Ricketts wouldn't want to acquire a talent like Harper because of going over a tax threshold and owing a few extra million

A guy like Harper who would definitely make them a much better offensive team and put them on top as being legit WS contenders then sticking with either Schwarber or Heyward, would also bring in so much more revenue to the team that he would pay for that extra tax money in 1 season..

Until he signs elsewhere, i still have a small feeling that he ends up a cub

 

[CSF77]

It mind boggling to me to actually think Tom Ricketts wouldn't want to acquire a talent like Harper because of going over a tax threshold and owing a few extra million

A guy like Harper who would definitely make them a much better offensive team and put them on top as being legit WS contenders then sticking with either Schwarber or Heyward, would also bring in so much more revenue to the team that he would pay for that extra tax money in 1 season..

Until he signs elsewhere, i still have a small feeling that he ends up a cub

They would drop 10 spots in the next draft for doing so.

Cash wise:

20 percent tax on all overages.

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax.

Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

So what it sounds like if they did sign him and payroll went up to 256MM lets say. 30MM would equal 6MM luxury tax and 12.75 sur tax for going over more than 40MM. Basically that pushes a 256MM payroll up to 274M

That is why it is very unlikely unless they can defer year 1 to under 246MM With a AAV in place it really comes down to Tom taking a major hit.

 

[chibears55]

They would drop 10 spots in the next draft for doing so.

Cash wise:

20 percent tax on all overages.

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax.

Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

So what it sounds like if they did sign him and payroll went up to 256MM lets say. 30MM would equal 6MM luxury tax and 12.75 sur tax for going over more than 40MM. Basically that pushes a 256MM payroll up to 274M

That is why it is very unlikely unless they can defer year 1 to under 246MM With a AAV in place it really comes down to Tom taking a major hit.

10 spot in draft not much of a difference in talent if their drafting at end of the round

Paying 20 mil in tax is nothing for these billionaires if it means giving them a legit shot at winning it all, plus like I said Harper would bring in a shit load of revenue and more then make up that money in 1 season for the team