Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[Castor76]

They would drop 10 spots in the next draft for doing so.

Cash wise:

20 percent tax on all overages.

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax.

Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

So what it sounds like if they did sign him and payroll went up to 256MM lets say. 30MM would equal 6MM luxury tax and 12.75 sur tax for going over more than 40MM. Basically that pushes a 256MM payroll up to 274M

That is why it is very unlikely unless they can defer year 1 to under 246MM With a AAV in place it really comes down to Tom taking a major hit.

10 spots in the draft mean very little, and there's actually a better history of getting a player who will be a star in the 31-40 spots versus 21-30 in recent drafts.

Money is always an issue even when it isn't. As far as who get traded away, Heyward would be ideal but difficult to move. Schwarber becomes the odd man out then as the Cubs could play Harper in LF and let the rotation of Almora/Happ and Heyward/Zobrist handle CF and RF depending on who's starting for the other team. Then there was the word that the Rays were interested in getting Zo back. But if not, the idea of putting up a line up with 4 .370+ OBP guys, possibly in a row or 4 our of 5 is very nice.

Still, most likely just a dream.

 

[TL1961]

Saying a $ 20 million tax is nothing is silly.

But essentially, you're saying "Pay $46 million for Harper."

 

[Castor76]

Saying a $ 20 million tax is nothing is silly.

But essentially, you're saying "Pay $46 million for Harper."

Plus your "mistakes" of the past and the over value you have on existing contracts.

 

[CSF77]

Saying a $ 20 million tax is nothing is silly.

But essentially, you're saying "Pay $46 million for Harper."

$226,322,143

They have 20MM gap. So in reality Harper will cost 30 AAV. So they would go 10MM over. 256 is a real number. Signing him would push the total upto 274MM so he would cost the Cubs 48MM in year 1. He is not worth 48MM

 

[Castor76]

$226,322,143

They have 20MM gap. So in reality Harper will cost 30 AAV. So they would go 10MM over. 256 is a real number. Signing him would push the total upto 274MM so he would cost the Cubs 48MM in year 1. He is not worth 48MM

Just to quibble a bit, but the Cubs are already over the 206 mark by more than 20M. So they'll have about 2.5 M they'll be paying in tax after this season.

Is he worth 45M in the raw? No, but to say you'd be paying that for him is wanting to see it that way. You could just as much put it on the under performance of Heyward and Chatwood and what they're counting against the CBT. And if they signed Harper, I feel they'd off load at least one of the larger contracts somehow. If that means moving Heyward and picking up 50M of his remaining or getting what they can for Zobrist or who knows.

 

[beckdawg]

It's not just losing 10 picks if you sign Harper. You're also losing a draft pick for signing him. You're effectively having another 2016 draft where you don't pick until the third round. And correct me if I'm wrong but I thought they also take away IFA money if you go over $246 mil. If that's the case you're effectively talking about Harper potentially costing you someone like Eloy because the cubs are going to spend big in IFA. Last year they landed the highest rated pitcher in the class and while I can't tell you much about the class at the moment, most of these deals for July have been verbally agreed to for awhile. So between that and effectively losing your first and second round draft picks you're really limiting the kind of impact talent you can bring into a depleted farm system.

Now to be clear I'm not saying the cubs can't and/or shouldn't sign Harper. However, it's not as clear cut as people make it out to be. People will say that prospects are a gamble which to an extent is true but the ones the cubs have invested resources in have panned out at a very high rate. And the 2018 cubs prior to August had the best offense in baseball excluding pitchers hitting. The 2017 cubs excluding pitchers hitting were 4th best in baseball. So, they have more than enough talent. Plus I think Harper doesn't even address the main issue the cubs have had. The cubs offense has hit HRs and walked well. They haven't hit well for average and have generally been bad situationally. Frankly that is what harper is. So, I think what you'd actually see were the cubs to sign him is that they would win harder in games they already win big and would still struggle in the games they have trouble scoring in presently. It's entirely the reason I was in favor of Machado over Harper in the first place.

All this is to say i think people aren't approaching this with a very nuanced way of thinking. It's basically "harper is good and young so sign him." The 2018 cubs lead baseball in OBP excluding pitchers. It might just be something as simple as reordering the typical line up such that you have higher average hitters in the 4-6 range. I've made the case for awhile now of batting Schwarber 2nd. He was 4th on the team behind Zobrist, Rizzo and Bryant in OBP last year. So, if you ended up with something like lead off hitter(almora?), Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, Zobrist I think you'd be better off than having Zobrist lead off and bryant bat 2nd. Regardless, my point here is that you can really improve this offense in other ways.

 

[beckdawg]

Also fwiw, Derek Dietrich is still a FA.... i wouldn't mind seeing the cubs pick him up. He'd given them a nice LH bat to replace La stella off the bench.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not against it with Harper. But it is highly unlikely that Tom changes his tune.

Basically they would trash 2019's draft. They did this to create 2016. So they are not above it. Then trade Schwarber for a controlled closer.

That is the 1%. 99% is a slap on the back and a handshake on getting a nice contract.

 

[CSF77]

Also fwiw, Derek Dietrich is still a FA.... i wouldn't mind seeing the cubs pick him up. He'd given them a nice LH bat to replace La stella off the bench.

Think that they already did that bit.

 

[JimJohnson]

It's mind boggling how some are worried about the draft. The window to win is now!!! And I'm getting tired of repeating that.

Cubs have 2 or 3 years left to win a WS. Then it's over and Cubs may need to think about a rebuild.

 

[Castor76]

It's not just losing 10 picks if you sign Harper. You're also losing a draft pick for signing him. You're effectively having another 2016 draft where you don't pick until the third round. And correct me if I'm wrong but I thought they also take away IFA money if you go over $246 mil. If that's the case you're effectively talking about Harper potentially costing you someone like Eloy because the cubs are going to spend big in IFA. Last year they landed the highest rated pitcher in the class and while I can't tell you much about the class at the moment, most of these deals for July have been verbally agreed to for awhile. So between that and effectively losing your first and second round draft picks you're really limiting the kind of impact talent you can bring into a depleted farm system.

Now to be clear I'm not saying the cubs can't and/or shouldn't sign Harper. However, it's not as clear cut as people make it out to be. People will say that prospects are a gamble which to an extent is true but the ones the cubs have invested resources in have panned out at a very high rate. And the 2018 cubs prior to August had the best offense in baseball excluding pitchers hitting. The 2017 cubs excluding pitchers hitting were 4th best in baseball. So, they have more than enough talent. Plus I think Harper doesn't even address the main issue the cubs have had. The cubs offense has hit HRs and walked well. They haven't hit well for average and have generally been bad situationally. Frankly that is what harper is. So, I think what you'd actually see were the cubs to sign him is that they would win harder in games they already win big and would still struggle in the games they have trouble scoring in presently. It's entirely the reason I was in favor of Machado over Harper in the first place.

All this is to say i think people aren't approaching this with a very nuanced way of thinking. It's basically "harper is good and young so sign him." The 2018 cubs lead baseball in OBP excluding pitchers. It might just be something as simple as reordering the typical line up such that you have higher average hitters in the 4-6 range. I've made the case for awhile now of batting Schwarber 2nd. He was 4th on the team behind Zobrist, Rizzo and Bryant in OBP last year. So, if you ended up with something like lead off hitter(almora?), Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, Zobrist I think you'd be better off than having Zobrist lead off and bryant bat 2nd. Regardless, my point here is that you can really improve this offense in other ways.

I'm not looking at it as simply as Harper being "good and young." Harper is dynamic to a line up. I'm a big proponent of seeing what guys do in certain spots in the line up. It's why I think Bryant should be the #2 hitter as he's most dangerous there. Over the past 3 seasons there's a roughly 50/40/25 drop in his slash line from #2 to #3, and he has over 500 PA batting #3. As for the situational hitting you mentioned, Harper has great numbers with Runners On, RISP, and RISP w/ 2 Outs the past 3 seasons. Lowest BA in those is .297, OBP .442, and SLG of .530. He'd become a big domino that could remove one of the platoons in the OF right now. The Cubs have 5 guys they play depending on the hand of the SP.

In no way do I really think he'll be a Cub in 2019. Needed? 50/50. The offense can be great without him, but if he were signed, it would be a signal to the rest of the team this team isn't going to rest on 2016. He wouldn't be a "replacing a guy" signing like Darvish and Morrow. He'd be a "we're going for this shit." signing.

 

[Castor76]

It's mind boggling how some are worried about the draft. The window to win is now!!! And I'm getting tired of repeating that.

Cubs have 2 or 3 years left to win a WS. Then it's over and Cubs may need to think about a rebuild.

Especially when you consider a top 10 pick is a coin flip for being good, 2.5+ WAR, or a bust and the number get worse as you go down. To have a late 90s Yankee run is near impossible now as you'd have to have 2-3 HoF guys on rookie deals, with one being a pitcher, and there was no CBT to slow them down if they wanted to spend to reload.

 

[85Bears]

It's mind boggling how some are worried about the draft. The window to win is now!!! And I'm getting tired of repeating that.

Cubs have 2 or 3 years left to win a WS. Then it's over and Cubs may need to think about a rebuild.

Except Theo's goal is to always keep the window open. Thought I remember something about building a team that would at least make the playoffs every year, and from that point it was largely up to luck.

I don't believe ANYTHING Theo says publicly at this point. How much stuff has he done that has been a complete surprise to all the pundits and rumor mill? We may end up with Harper, or Machado, or both (through moving a ton of others). Or we may end up with nothing more than we have now. But Theo never tips his hand, so I think we just don't know.

 

[beckdawg]

It's mind boggling how some are worried about the draft. The window to win is now!!! And I'm getting tired of repeating that.

Cubs have 2 or 3 years left to win a WS. Then it's over and Cubs may need to think about a rebuild.

You worry about the draft now because if you don't then in 3 years when all these guys start making real money you have nothing behind them and you're all the way back to 2012. Now sure you can't be singularly focused on it. For example, if you need a reliever in july to have a shot at the playoffs then fine. You move the parts to make it happen. Likewise if Harper is *the guy* to make it all work and win a championship then fine. You pay the price. But I don't believe he makes enough of a difference. And as we've seen with Heyward and Darvish in 2 of the last 3 years just because you land a guy to "put you over the top" it doesn't mean it's guaranteed to work out.

So, it's less about worry about draft picks and more about being smart with where you give up your resources. The more talent you have in your system when you eventually start that rebuild the less time that eventual rebuild takes. Additionally, the more talent you have to draft and pull from IFA the longer you can sustain your current run via trades for missing pieces. If the cubs believe a guy fixes all their woes then like I said go get him and damn the price. But on the other hand if you're just talking marginal upgrades you really don't want to be throwing away resources because they are already thin.

 

[CSF77]

You worry about the draft now because if you don't then in 3 years when all these guys start making real money you have nothing behind them and you're all the way back to 2012. Now sure you can't be singularly focused on it. For example, if you need a reliever in july to have a shot at the playoffs then fine. You move the parts to make it happen. Likewise if Harper is *the guy* to make it all work and win a championship then fine. You pay the price. But I don't believe he makes enough of a difference. And as we've seen with Heyward and Darvish in 2 of the last 3 years just because you land a guy to "put you over the top" it doesn't mean it's guaranteed to work out.

So, it's less about worry about draft picks and more about being smart with where you give up your resources. The more talent you have in your system when you eventually start that rebuild the less time that eventual rebuild takes. Additionally, the more talent you have to draft and pull from IFA the longer you can sustain your current run via trades for missing pieces. If the cubs believe a guy fixes all their woes then like I said go get him and damn the price. But on the other hand if you're just talking marginal upgrades you really don't want to be throwing away resources because they are already thin.

NYY showed that they can flip short term for long term and reopen a window quick

Cubs did that pre window and didn't with Jake because they were in it that year.

I believe that they will sell off if they are not in it and add if they are. It is simmple as that.

Strop, Zobrist and Hamels are trade chips if this fails.

 

[anotheridiot]

They would drop 10 spots in the next draft for doing so.

Cash wise:

20 percent tax on all overages.

Clubs that exceed the threshold by $20 million to $40 million are also subject to a 12 percent surtax.

Meanwhile, those who exceed it by more than $40 million are taxed at a 42.5 percent rate the first time and a 45 percent rate if they exceed it by more than $40 million again the following year(s).

Beginning in 2018, clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.

So what it sounds like if they did sign him and payroll went up to 256MM lets say. 30MM would equal 6MM luxury tax and 12.75 sur tax for going over more than 40MM. Basically that pushes a 256MM payroll up to 274M

That is why it is very unlikely unless they can defer year 1 to under 246MM With a AAV in place it really comes down to Tom taking a major hit.

If you look at it that way. Payroll would still be 250, you just put that tax in a different column. The problem is knowing they will be repeat offenders and get hit harder. If they pay to make Heyward go away, same, different column, not considered payroll. I am thinking the team accountants are working pretty hard to show losses already. You just know they are counting on having some trade chips available for June and July so they pick up the help they need at half a year salary.

Its hard to believe they will not be over at some point this season. I am almost surprised they did not allow Schwarber go to arbitration since he got a pretty big bump that they agreed to pay.

No, right now its planning to keep this group together. This Zobrist being traded, I cannot believe, I expect them to talk him into staying another 2 for 12 million total if he still wants to play. I am not sure they will be able to get him back if he is dealt, unless the cubs end up out of it and they give him a shot at a ring elsewhere.

 

[CSF77]

If you look at it that way. Payroll would still be 250, you just put that tax in a different column. The problem is knowing they will be repeat offenders and get hit harder. If they pay to make Heyward go away, same, different column, not considered payroll. I am thinking the team accountants are working pretty hard to show losses already. You just know they are counting on having some trade chips available for June and July so they pick up the help they need at half a year salary.

Its hard to believe they will not be over at some point this season. I am almost surprised they did not allow Schwarber go to arbitration since he got a pretty big bump that they agreed to pay.

No, right now its planning to keep this group together. This Zobrist being traded, I cannot believe, I expect them to talk him into staying another 2 for 12 million total if he still wants to play. I am not sure they will be able to get him back if he is dealt, unless the cubs end up out of it and they give him a shot at a ring elsewhere.

If I was going to do it I would get creative. Work a deal with a team to sign Kimbrol then trade Zobrist and Schwarber for him. Pretty much nul the contracts. Then sign Harper to play LF. I would do it because of Schwarber's splits making him a questionable long term player and his trade value being in question going forward.

 

[beckdawg]

NYY showed that they can flip short term for long term and reopen a window quick

Cubs did that pre window and didn't with Jake because they were in it that year.

I believe that they will sell off if they are not in it and add if they are. It is simmple as that.

Strop, Zobrist and Hamels are trade chips if this fails.

I'm not sure I'd use the yankees as the example. Most teams aren't going to be able to leverage Chapmann and Miller like they did. Additionally, the yankees also benefited greatly from the old IFA system. if you're a large market team rebuilding today you're going to have to come up with novel ways to add parts. The way I'd likely go about doing that is to find mid/small market teams with bad contracts and eat those contracts for bonus IFA money and/or competitive balance draft picks. But MLB is getting wiser about novel tricks like this and eventually has been closing them all. Honestly I wish they'd just let teams trade draft picks outside of those competitive balance ones. Would make for far more interesting rebuilds.

 

[CSF77]

I'm not sure I'd use the yankees as the example. Most teams aren't going to be able to leverage Chapmann and Miller like they did. Additionally, the yankees also benefited greatly from the old IFA system. if you're a large market team rebuilding today you're going to have to come up with novel ways to add parts. The way I'd likely go about doing that is to find mid/small market teams with bad contracts and eat those contracts for bonus IFA money and/or competitive balance draft picks. But MLB is getting wiser about novel tricks like this and eventually has been closing them all. Honestly I wish they'd just let teams trade draft picks outside of those competitive balance ones. Would make for far more interesting rebuilds.

That would be a interesting CBA topic. NBA this is common.

 

[Omeletpants]

If I was going to do it I would get creative. Work a deal with a team to sign Kimbrol then trade Zobrist and Schwarber for him. Pretty much nul the contracts. Then sign Harper to play LF. I would do it because of Schwarber's splits making him a questionable long term player and his trade value being in question going forward.

Yeah, that only happens in the Tin Foil Hat Fantasy League