Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[anotheridiot]

1) At no point did Epstein ever "call out" Maddon. In fact, after the season he reiterated that Maddon was in good standing with the org, that he was completely satisfied with Maddon's performance, and that he wasn't looking for a "yes man" as a manager.

2) At no point did Ricketts even imply that the reason why they weren't spending more money was because too much money had been wasted on FAs. What he did say is that there was no more money in the budget. Sorry if you believe that budgets are not real things that teams have to deal with.

3) At no point did Epstein imply that he is considering leaving because of financial limitations imposed on him by ownership.

So basically your "evidence" of a Epstein-Ricketts rift boils down to a few quotes that you have badly misinterpreted. Got it.

1) We will not negotiate a contract until after this year, wants him to spend more time coaching i.e. doing what he was hired for.

2) There is no more money in the budget because we are already top 3 in payroll in the league. Seriously, how does that not imply how that budget was filled.

3) Theo leaving? You mean fired? Why is it Theo's choice?

GOT IT? Come on man, you are not this gullible. When has so much dirty laundry been aired with this regime? You dont see it as pointing fingers, thats your loss. I know there are times I read too much between the lines, never get credit when I am right, but what have I said? Theo was going to buy pitching and develop position players. What did he do? Bought pitching and bought position players. Move LaStella, fine, pinch hitter, shit fielder. Theo does not want him in the lineup anymore. What should happen? Bote and Happ get more playing time. What does happen? Sign Decalso for twice the Lastella money to take playing time from Happ and Bote.

 

[Castor76]

If the Cubs exercise every option they have and arbitration goes at about a 50% increase or 1.5M for the first timers, the Cubs should have a payroll of about 185M with 4-5 slots to fill on the 25 man for 2020.

 

[CSF77]

If the Cubs exercise every option they have and arbitration goes at about a 50% increase or 1.5M for the first timers, the Cubs should have a payroll of about 185M with 4-5 slots to fill on the 25 man for 2020.

Pretty sure that Steele, Alozay and Zach Short fill 3. I think that they love Robinson also. He is effective with limited talent. I can see them keeping payroll in check next year setting up a offer towards Trout.

That is kinda what I want at least. See if they can extend Bryant. Rest just set up for trades to lose payroll if there is a in-house. Say Contreras/Russell with Nico and Amaya both top 100 ready. And so on.

As far as the core Baez I would trade also. Not a good long term with his OBA. I would be setting up Nico Short and Ademan rotating 2B/SS. Bryant I would move to 1B and I would target a young 3B or Nico there. Trout to LF (2021 Schwarber until then). Heyward RF and Almora in CF. DJ makes a good 4th.

Rotation should be Yu and Hendricks by then. I would extend Hendricks. Steele and Alozay most likely move into those roles in 2020. You would want a lefty vet via F/A. Madbum looks on the decline. This might be a area to Target on trades to bring back a player with control/upside.

The only thing missing is a LH thumpper. Rizzo I don't see it. Schwarber ditto. Lacks power vs left. Might not need it with Bryant and Trout powering the team.

Just my opinion here. D would be top notch. Pretty sure the OBA solid. So run support not explosive but steady. Pitching they really would need a lefty TOR unless Steele just gets dynamic this year. Then all bets off. Alozay should be a nice mid rotation arm.

 

[Castor76]

If I'm Baez, I'm getting my agent to try and talk the Cubs into a Rizzo like deal to eat up my remaining arby years and get me good, not great, money for the next 7-8 years. I would be asking 7 year extension on top of this year for 120M at 8/12/16/20/21/21/22. It's just over 17M AAV but none of the years are super large.

Russell would have to have an amazing season to still be a Cub by season's end, IMO. Schwarber is going have to show/get a large chance that he can hit lefties well enough to get a shot at staying in LF for the future.

 

[CSF77]

I kinda agree with you but if they really aim at a Trout/Bryant line up that could cost 70+ per. But you are talking 12-15 WAR per so the investment is justified.

Baez hard a career year. Even then his BB% didn't change. He is what he is and he is closer to Soriano talent and that ended up a over payment. Age will erode what he brings and he doesn't have the toolbox to offset

 

[chibears55]

Pretty sure that Steele, Alozay and Zach Short fill 3. I think that they love Robinson also. He is effective with limited talent. I can see them keeping payroll in check next year setting up a offer towards Trout.

Kinda doubt theyll make a splash on Trout and offer 10 yrs 350 to 400 for him with him being 29..

Tying up alot of dough on one guy with him being in his mid to late 30s majority of the contract

They can get 2-3 solid players for that money

 

[chibears55]

wish the cubs would make this deal, this way the could drop Russell for a cheaper better backup SS

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1098977313356681216?s=19

 

[beckdawg]

wish the cubs would make this deal, this way the could drop Russell for a cheaper better backup SS

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1098977313356681216?s=19

It's not "cheaper" if you eat $4 mil and then go and pay someone money on top of that. He's also not "better." His career wRC+ is 83. Russell who mind you still hasn't hit his prime years where as he has is a career 88 wRC+. He's not even better defensively. Russell is +57 DRS in 3546.0 innings. He's +12 in 5138.0.

 

[fatbeard]

It's not "cheaper" if you eat $4 mil and then go and pay someone money on top of that. He's also not "better." His career wRC+ is 83. Russell who mind you still hasn't hit his prime years where as he has is a career 88 wRC+. He's not even better defensively. Russell is +57 DRS in 3546.0 innings. He's +12 in 5138.0.

But he's a +6.3 in SNPAR (Spouses Not Pummeled Above Replacement).

 

[chibears55]

It's not "cheaper" if you eat $4 mil and then go and pay someone money on top of that. He's also not "better." His career wRC+ is 83. Russell who mind you still hasn't hit his prime years where as he has is a career 88 wRC+. He's not even better defensively. Russell is +57 DRS in 3546.0 innings. He's +12 in 5138.0.

Russell deal not guaranteed yet...

 

[beckdawg]

Russell deal not guaranteed yet...

Part of it is(think a month of pay or more) but that's basically beside the point.

 

[CSF77]

Kinda doubt theyll make a splash on Trout and offer 10 yrs 350 to 400 for him with him being 29..

Tying up alot of dough on one guy with him being in his mid to late 30s majority of the contract

They can get 2-3 solid players for that money

Depends how he ages. Going from a 8 WAR player to a 6 war player over 10 years is worth it vs 4 players putting up 2 WAR production each at 10 mil.

Same money but you are getting 1 guy pushing 6-8 WAR and then you can fill the other 3 spots with quality farm talent at league min.

They are always targeting bats and you can get 2 WAR under market value with potential like Baez to grow vs paying market value for it and getting locked into it.

 

[chibears55]

Depends how he ages. Going from a 8 WAR player to a 6 war player over 10 years is worth it vs 4 players putting up 2 WAR production each at 10 mil.

Same money but you are getting 1 guy pushing 6-8 WAR and then you can fill the other 3 spots with quality farm talent at league min.

They are always targeting bats and you can get 2 WAR under market value with potential like Baez to grow vs paying market value for it and getting locked into it.

Something tells me he won't be putting up 6-8 WAR from age 32/33 to 39
As of now, there no DH in NL to use him as he gets to age 35+ and loses steps in OF

 

[CSF77]

Something tells me he won't be putting up 6-8 WAR from age 32/33 to 39
As of now, there no DH in NL to use him as he gets to age 35+ and loses steps in OF

29 F/A.

His lowest WAR season was 6.9 in 114 games played.

He has 2 10 WAR seasons.
He has 3 9 WAR seasons
And 1 8 WAR season.

40 AAV at 8 mil is 5 WAR.

even if his mean falls to his WORST season (incomplete that is) he is worth the investment.

 

[CSF77]

Funny thing is. He has equaled Harper and Manny combined in player value. We are talking Ted Williams level stuff here.

 

[chibears55]

29 F/A.

His lowest WAR season was 6.9 in 114 games played.

He has 2 10 WAR seasons.
He has 3 9 WAR seasons
And 1 8 WAR season.

40 AAV at 8 mil is 5 WAR.

even if his mean falls to his WORST season (incomplete that is) he is worth the investment.

So you wanna pay a guy 35-40 mil per
For 5+ yrs, when he most likely will drop off significantly from what he does his first couple yrs of that deal

Their not gonna get the 20s Mike Trout version when he in his 30s

And again, if they were gonna drop a shit load of money on 1 guy for 10 yrs, I think they would of done it on a 26 yr old more then a 29 yr old

 

[CSF77]

So you wanna pay a guy 35-40 mil per
For 5+ yrs, when he most likely will drop off significantly from what he does his first couple yrs of that deal

Their not gonna get the 20s Mike Trout version when he in his 30s

400M equals 50 fWAR. I would make that bet with 4 prime years.

It is a far better bet than 325 Mil on a over rated Haper.

Age means little. All it does is erode off of where you are. If you are a 10 WAR player and end up half the producer you are still a 5 WAR player making equal value.

Just to keep in prospective. 2017 Bryant was equal to 114 games of Trout. Which means Bryant is 3/4 of trout's value.

So I really can't agree with you here.

 

[chibears55]

400M equals 50 fWAR. I would make that bet with 4 prime years.

It is a far better bet than 325 Mil on a over rated Haper.

Age means little. All it does is erode off of where you are. If you are a 10 WAR player and end up half the producer you are still a 5 WAR player making equal value.

Just to keep in prospective. 2017 Bryant was equal to 114 games of Trout. Which means Bryant is 3/4 of trout's value.

So I really can't agree with you here.

Lol..

 

[CSF77]

Lol..

The funny part is you have been chomping at the bit over Manny and Harper.

Trout 64.7 fWAR
Harper 30.7
Machado 30.2

He has put up OVER 2X.

This is the thing. You are willing to pay 300 on Manny but not pay 400 on Trout over age. Which is stupid because wear and tear has more to do with millage.

But I'll run with your vision.

If you get Machado' value over 10 years with no down grade you are getting 50 total FWAR

if you get 9 WAR over 4 years that is 36 WAR
so he has to break even with Manny is get 14 WAR in 6 seasons. Or an avg of 2.2 per. Which is what I'm getting g from Happ and Almora.

Just saying.

 

[chibears55]

The funny part is you have been chomping at the bit over Manny and Harper.

Trout 64.7 fWAR
Harper 30.7
Machado 30.2

He has put up OVER 2X.

This is the thing. You are willing to pay 300 on Manny but not pay 400 on Trout over age. Which is stupid because wear and tear has more to do with millage.

But I'll run with your vision.

If you get Machado' value over 10 years with no down grade you are getting 50 total FWAR

if you get 9 WAR over 4 years that is 36 WAR
so he has to break even with Manny is get 14 WAR in 6 seasons. Or an avg of 2.2 per. Which is what I'm getting g from Happ and Almora.

Just saying.

I never said Trout wasnt a great player

I only opined that I didn't think cubs would fork that type of money down on a 29 YO for 10 yrs..

That is all

Lol