Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[chibears55]

Maybe.

To me, just way too many teams still in it at July. This won't help the quality IMO

Probably force some teams to bring up prospects sooner though

 

[zack54attack]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-rules-changes

None of these rule changes really bother me. I'm good with all of them.

 

[CSF77]

Getting rid of wavers is fine. That was confusing. Strait deadline works wonders.

All teams at 26. 27 on DH and 28 in Sept. I like it. Kills the adding the AAA with no service time hit. Now teams have to focus on trade then use openings for the next wave or add 2 guys for depth.

DL going back to 15. Seems it was a exploit used to rotate pitchers.

 

[anotheridiot]

I always thought that the waiver trade month was more of the GM's feeling out what they could be getting for players the upcoming winter. If two or three teams are interested in someone, then you know who you are talking to that winter. I mean, EVERYBODY got put on waivers.

The inning breaks? Really? removing 5 seconds per inning break is going to make a big deal?

I still think they could let the rosters expand as big as they want in September, you just simply have to turn in your game roster of 28 daily.

I mean, you cant add players, allow one or two more moves, and claim you are trying to shorten games. That is an extra hitter or defensive switch.

 

[CSF77]

I always thought that the waiver trade month was more of the GM's feeling out what they could be getting for players the upcoming winter. If two or three teams are interested in someone, then you know who you are talking to that winter. I mean, EVERYBODY got put on waivers.

The inning breaks? Really? removing 5 seconds per inning break is going to make a big deal?

I still think they could let the rosters expand as big as they want in September, you just simply have to turn in your game roster of 28 daily.

I mean, you cant add players, allow one or two more moves, and claim you are trying to shorten games. That is an extra hitter or defensive switch.

Cubs always sucked so "the next wave" was more interesting than "the current team"

I see it as add a arm and a runner. But with the waver line killed a month before hand it feels like keep what you need on the 40 man vs look for that cut.

I do think release and signings will still be a thing. All it really affects is a trade. So the whole put on waver and pull back for a trade is gone. Now it seems more cut off the roster and other teams can sign as a unrestricted F/A vs dangling on wavers.

 

[CubsFaninMN]

This will serve to lessen the "cup of coffee" looks that the big league coaching staff likes to get at the promising minor leaguers near the end of the year. For good or ill.

-Doug

 

[beckdawg]

Apropos of nothing, brett from BN mentioned on twitter he just watched albertos throwing and apparently he didn't throw a single ball. If he gets his command issues sorta the kid could move fast because he's got crazy stuff. Of the pitchers listed on "the board" on fangraphs only Alex Reyes, Touki Toussiant, Forrest Whitley, Sixto Sanchez, Cionel Perez, Anderson Espinoza, Grayson Rodriguez, Albert Abreu, James Kaprielian, Adonis Medina, A.J. Puk, J.B. Bukauskas and Trent Thornton had 3 60 grade or higher pitches.

Assuming everything is right with him he compares fairly favorably size wise and development wise with Medina who they had ranked 44th. That would probably put him more in the range of a #2 or #3 type starter than a full on "ace" or cy young contender but he's easily got the best stuff in the system. He's basically Alzolay with a far better change up again assuming his command is fixed.

Wouldn't surprise me if he is good command wise for him to dominate A ball for the first 2-3 months of 2019 and get called up to A+ midseason because A ball hitters aren't going to be able to handle his stuff. In the 13 innings he pitched in 2018 with no command what so ever in A ball he had 17 k's.

 

[chibears55]

Apropos of nothing, brett from BN mentioned on twitter he just watched albertos throwing and apparently he didn't throw a single ball. If he gets his command issues sorta the kid could move fast because he's got crazy stuff. Of the pitchers listed on "the board" on fangraphs only Alex Reyes, Touki Toussiant, Forrest Whitley, Sixto Sanchez, Cionel Perez, Anderson Espinoza, Grayson Rodriguez, Albert Abreu, James Kaprielian, Adonis Medina, A.J. Puk, J.B. Bukauskas and Trent Thornton had 3 60 grade or higher pitches.

Assuming everything is right with him he compares fairly favorably size wise and development wise with Medina who they had ranked 44th. That would probably put him more in the range of a #2 or #3 type starter than a full on "ace" or cy young contender but he's easily got the best stuff in the system. He's basically Alzolay with a far better change up again assuming his command is fixed.

Wouldn't surprise me if he is good command wise for him to dominate A ball for the first 2-3 months of 2019 and get called up to A+ midseason because A ball hitters aren't going to be able to handle his stuff. In the 13 innings he pitched in 2018 with no command what so ever in A ball he had 17 k's.

Be nice if the cubs could add a couple young arms into the rotation in the next year or two..
Darvish is the only one guarenteed past 2020

If their going to be extending some of the hitters, their not gonna have much to spend on top quality pitchers

 

[beckdawg]

If their going to be extending some of the hitters, their not gonna have much to spend on top quality pitchers

Not entirely sure I agree with this. While I get what you're saying I think what you're not factoring in is the fact that the cubs are paying Hamels $20 mil and Q $10.5 mil to be your #4 and #5 starters not to mention the $12.5 mil they are paying chatwood. I mean for the sake of argument here let's be really conservative and say Alzolay is only ever as good as a #4 starter. That would mean for the next 3 years post 2019 you would be saving over $19 mil. Like wise, let's say you can find someone like Mills or whomever to be your #5 starter. I don't think that's any kind of stretch when you consider they have Hatch, Clifton, Underwood, Tseng, Rucker, Ducan Robinson, Steele, Swarmer, Abbott and Keegan Thompson all at AA or higher. One of them will yield a #5 starter and the rest should give you enough depth where you don't need to pay someone like Chatwood. So i mean that's essentially $43 mil you're paying now vs the ~$1 mil you would expect to pay guys on rookie deals.

I think you may be right in so far as you wouldn't be able to give anyone $30+ mil a year but I think there's more than enough room for them to re-sign Hendricks(given what Nola signed for I doubt he goes that pricey) and whatever is left you can dump into the #1 starter or #2 if you consider Darvish to be that. It's also worth noting that Darvish theoretically could opt out after this year though given how year 1 went I sorta feel like he's going to feel honor bound to fulfill the contract and unless he totally dominates I'm not really sure there's *that* much more out there for him.

 

[chibears55]

Not entirely sure I agree with this. While I get what you're saying I think what you're not factoring in is the fact that the cubs are paying Hamels $20 mil and Q $10.5 mil to be your #4 and #5 starters not to mention the $12.5 mil they are paying chatwood. I mean for the sake of argument here let's be really conservative and say Alzolay is only ever as good as a #4 starter. That would mean for the next 3 years post 2019 you would be saving over $19 mil. Like wise, let's say you can find someone like Mills or whomever to be your #5 starter. I don't think that's any kind of stretch when you consider they have Hatch, Clifton, Underwood, Tseng, Rucker, Ducan Robinson, Steele, Swarmer, Abbott and Keegan Thompson all at AA or higher. One of them will yield a #5 starter and the rest should give you enough depth where you don't need to pay someone like Chatwood. So i mean that's essentially $43 mil you're paying now vs the ~$1 mil you would expect to pay guys on rookie deals.

I think you may be right in so far as you wouldn't be able to give anyone $30+ mil a year but I think there's more than enough room for them to re-sign Hendricks(given what Nola signed for I doubt he goes that pricey) and whatever is left you can dump into the #1 starter or #2 if you consider Darvish to be that. It's also worth noting that Darvish theoretically could opt out after this year though given how year 1 went I sorta feel like he's going to feel honor bound to fulfill the contract and unless he totally dominates I'm not really sure there's *that* much more out there for him.

My thinking is..
if the young core, mainly Bryant Baez Schwarber and Contreras all excel as expected or hoped too and the cubs plan on extending them..

That gonna cost a good chunk of change for 4 guys, then there Heyward 22 per thru 2023 and Rizzo.
That 6 position players who all could be 20-30(Bryant)per

Then you got Darvish making close to 20 per, and if they extend Hendricks that would likely cost 20 per or close to it.

So yeah, i think it will be important for them to hope that at least 2 guys from their system can come up and be solid starters in rotation.

I just dont see them having the money available to go out and get a couple of TOR type starters that will cost 25+ per after 2021 season..

Honesty, id be surprise if there any available under age 31 that would be worth that type of signing

 

[beckdawg]

My thinking is..
if the young core, mainly Bryant Baez Schwarber and Contreras all excel as expected or hoped too and the cubs plan on extending them..

That gonna cost a good chunk of change for 4 guys, then there Heyward 22 per thru 2023 and Rizzo.
That 6 position players who all could be 20-30(Bryant)per

Then you got Darvish making close to 20 per, and if they extend Hendricks that would likely cost 20 per or close to it.

So yeah, i think it will be important for them to hope that at least 2 guys from their system can come up and be solid starters in rotation.

I just dont see them having the money available to go out and get a couple of TOR type starters that will cost 25+ per after 2021 season..

Honesty, id be surprise if there any available under age 31 that would be worth that type of signing

Well here's the thing, Bryant isn't going to be that much more expensive because he's already making good arb money. And the other 3 are still in Arb 1 or in the case of Contreras pre arb. That means if you hypothetically were to extend them today the next 2 years they are still going to be cheap by nature of arbitration. You can move the money around however to suit your needs so maybe they put more in 2020/21 than they would otherwise get vs arb but the point I'm getting at here is it's not like if you were to re-sign them today they would suddenly be making $20-25 mil a year.

And in addition to that, the luxury tax is going to keep going up probably by $10 or so mil a season. So I mean there's money there.

If there's a concern to me it's not about the young guys it's about what you do with Rizzo. They have him cheap through 2021 but after that they don't really have a 1B prospect unless they did something like maybe move Schwarber there. And granted 1B isn't hard to play comparatively but it's not really like they have that left handed power guy in their org outside of Schwarber. Not to mention the fact Rizzo is a bit of the heart of the team. But then you have to figure he's kinda going to be past his prime years as well.

All that being said, I wouldn't really worry too much about the money situation. I think it's going to largely fix itself.

 

[chibears55]

Well here's the thing, Bryant isn't going to be that much more expensive because he's already making good arb money. And the other 3 are still in Arb 1 or in the case of Contreras pre arb. That means if you hypothetically were to extend them today the next 2 years they are still going to be cheap by nature of arbitration. You can move the money around however to suit your needs so maybe they put more in 2020/21 than they would otherwise get vs arb but the point I'm getting at here is it's not like if you were to re-sign them today they would suddenly be making $20-25 mil a year.

And in addition to that, the luxury tax is going to keep going up probably by $10 or so mil a season. So I mean there's money there.

If there's a concern to me it's not about the young guys it's about what you do with Rizzo. They have him cheap through 2021 but after that they don't really have a 1B prospect unless they did something like maybe move Schwarber there. And granted 1B isn't hard to play comparatively but it's not really like they have that left handed power guy in their org outside of Schwarber. Not to mention the fact Rizzo is a bit of the heart of the team. But then you have to figure he's kinda going to be past his prime years as well.

All that being said, I wouldn't really worry too much about the money situation. I think it's going to largely fix itself.

Right, but im not talking about 2020 or 2021 with these guys, im talking afterwards when their Arb years are up for 2022 and beyond and the need for SP will be there after Lester Hamels Quintana and possibly Hendricks contracts expire(d).
These guys if they excel and cubs want to hold onto them, they will be making 20+ per

So, the importance of having a couple kids in their system rise up and can be solid in the rotation becomes huge because i just dont think theyll have the $$$$ to be signing high priced starters in 2022 or 2023 if a good % of their payroll going towards the core position players

 

[CSF77]

Apropos of nothing, brett from BN mentioned on twitter he just watched albertos throwing and apparently he didn't throw a single ball. If he gets his command issues sorta the kid could move fast because he's got crazy stuff. Of the pitchers listed on "the board" on fangraphs only Alex Reyes, Touki Toussiant, Forrest Whitley, Sixto Sanchez, Cionel Perez, Anderson Espinoza, Grayson Rodriguez, Albert Abreu, James Kaprielian, Adonis Medina, A.J. Puk, J.B. Bukauskas and Trent Thornton had 3 60 grade or higher pitches.

Assuming everything is right with him he compares fairly favorably size wise and development wise with Medina who they had ranked 44th. That would probably put him more in the range of a #2 or #3 type starter than a full on "ace" or cy young contender but he's easily got the best stuff in the system. He's basically Alzolay with a far better change up again assuming his command is fixed.

Wouldn't surprise me if he is good command wise for him to dominate A ball for the first 2-3 months of 2019 and get called up to A+ midseason because A ball hitters aren't going to be able to handle his stuff. In the 13 innings he pitched in 2018 with no command what so ever in A ball he had 17 k's.

We will see with him. He is still young and his best pitch is a change up. He has the feel of Hendricks in the mid 90 which is devistating. I would rather slow brew this one though. Add a 12/6 to keep them honest while changing speeds.

There is no rush

 

[beckdawg]

Right, but im not talking about 2020 or 2021 with these guys,

Ok but in 3-4 years the luxury tax could be $30-40 mil more than it presently is.

 

[chibears55]

Ok but in 3-4 years the luxury tax could be $30-40 mil more than it presently is.

Ok..

And theyll be paying Schwarber Baez Contreras Bryant Rizzo and maybe Hendricks a whole lot more too if they keep them all..lol

 

[beckdawg]

Ok..

And theyll be paying Schwarber Baez Contreras Bryant Rizzo and maybe Hendricks a whole lot more too if they keep them all..lol

And that increase is offset by the increase in the luxury tax. You don't seem to understand my point...

 

[chibears55]

And that increase is offset by the increase in the luxury tax. You don't seem to understand my point...

Luxery tax threshold will be 210 mil in 2021, which is only 4 mil more then 2019..

So....

I know the new CBA may change things but for now, the tax threshold only goes up a couple mil a year..

If they sign all those guys, were looking at 10-20 mil per increase in salary per player for 6 players in 2022..
So, were looking at an at least a 60 mil increase in payroll for those 6 players


to my point of the importance of having a couple pitching prospects rise up and be solid starters in next 2 yrs., i just dont see how you think they will be able too or want to sign if one available, a 30+ TOR SP at a high cost that would probably also come with years no matter if they have some wiggle room with payroll and the tax threshold..

I would think it would benefit them more if those SP came through their system and under their control money wise

 

[beckdawg]

I'm wondering if people are missing something with all the hand wringing on the bullpen. I mean I get it but is it really the worst thing in the world if the cubs have to let Maples sink or swim? Obviously there's a chance he never has enough command but this is a guy who had 103 K's in 57 innings in AAA. That's a down right absurd 16.26 k/9. To put that into some context, Chapman had 11.76 k/9 over 95.2 innings albeit as a starter. Hader had 10.3 k/9 over 121.0 innings again mostly as a starter. Dellin Betances over 179.2 innings in AAA was 10.3. Best I'm seeing among the league leaders in k/9 last year who even come close to that is Kimbrel who had a 13.3 k/9 over 58.0 innings.

Now sure his 7.9 bb/9 in AAA isn't likely to play at the MLB level but I mean at some point you just gotta take the shot. It's entirely possible that he comes up and just dominates. I mean Marmol in 2009 had a 11.31/7.91 k/bb per 9 and a 3.41 ERA. 2010 he had a 15.99/6.03 k/bb per 9 and a 2.55 ERA and was the best reliever in baseball by fWAR. With that being said, I'm not sure I'd exactly want him closing given his walk rate but to be a useful part of the pen and to be a closer are two very different things. And for what it's worth Maples has a 10:3 k:bb rate this spring with 5.1 IP.

I'm just sitting here wondering if we're going to be looking at these minor camp injuries as a blessing in disguise in june. If Maples is forced onto the roster and solidifies himself there with good performance the cubs bullpen starts to get very interesting. Morrow should he return in a timely fashion is a guy who the past 2 years has put up 9.8/2.2 k/bb per 9 with a 1.82/2.14 ERA/FIP. Strop since coming over to the cubs for the first full season in 2014 is 10.1/3.5 k/bb per 9 and 2.61/3.10 ERA/FIP. Edwards is a career 12.28/4.92 k/bb per 9 and 3.06/3.12. Cishek the past 3 years is 9.8/3.2 k/bb per 9 and 2.36/3.46 ERA/FIP. That's a rather shocking good group to build off of. So, if Maples comes up and isn't killing you with walks he could be very very interesting. Hell in his 10.1 innings in the majors so far he has 20 ks.

I still think there's a valid question of how the LH side of the bullpen shapes up. I mean Monty is fine but he's not really "dominating." And if I'm honestly I'm not sure there's a guy walking in that door in April who is that guy. Might be something you just find a guy to get by with until july. With that being said, if the RH options play out as mentioned above you have a lot more liberty to use someone like Edwards who dominates everyone when pitching well in situations you might otherwise want a dominant lefty.

 

[TL1961]

We spend a lot of time worrying about two years down the road contractually at all times

 

[anotheridiot]

The leagues dream is to still have one superstar per team, so they will strangle the tax cap until the matinee teams start stepping up, moving, or getting owners that want to spend money and build their franchises, not accept 9000 fans in the seats.