Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[TC in Mississippi]

There's also the fact he's 387-261(.597) as the cubs manager. What frustrates me about the conversation around him is that it's never "is he a good manager?" It's is he the "best" manager but it's phrased in a way asking whether or not he's even any good. I'll save some people a lot of effort. The guy is probably a top 5 manager in baseball at worst. That's not an opinion or something that's open for debate.

Ultimately no manager is going to be without flaws. And it'd be one thing if maddon was the one obviously making bad calls that lead to playoff losses. But the 2015 cubs lost to the mets because they couldn't hit good pitching. They lost to the dodgers last year because they couldn't hit good pitching. And they fell out of the playoffs/divisional race this year because again they didn't hit well late in the year. There's a nuanced discussion to be had as to why that is but I can't really see that as being some how Maddon's fault.

To me this was Maddon's best job in Chicago as a manager and it's not close. Dude won 95 games after losing the guy who was signed to be your number 2 starter for nearly the whole year, the closer for a total of 3 months, and your best player going into the season for close to 3 months total. Also the Cubs went .571 in the second half despite the bats going cold at the same time with an 89 wRC+ and .308 wOBA. The fact that you could have won at a .571 clip with those numbers is extraordinary. Maddon relied on matchups, very good pitching and defense to overcome those offensive deficiencies. No, it wasn't enough but 95 wins isn't nothing either.

 

[CSF77]

I honestly find this to be pretty disgusting. If a guy pulls a "turd act" the MLB should suspend him. The fact that MLB let's teams "police each other" is part of the fucking problem. It's pretty dumb in my mind that you get a longer suspension for PEDs than for throwing at guys.

Also throwing at someone's head isn't an eye for an eye. Even if you argue that Machado's intent was to hurt the guy which I'm not sure I believe, there's a drastic difference between hurting a guy's ankle and throwing at someone's head.

And lastly if you're building a roster to have guys to do this sort of shit then you're not a competitive team.

MLB got involved and fined him to avoid a retaliation. It was going to come if they did nothing.

 

[CSF77]

To me this was Maddon's best job in Chicago as a manager and it's not close. Dude won 95 games after losing the guy who was signed to be your number 2 starter for nearly the whole year, the closer for a total of 3 months, and your best player going into the season for close to 3 months total. Also the Cubs went .571 in the second half despite the bats going cold at the same time with an 89 wRC+ and .308 wOBA. The fact that you could have won at a .571 clip with those numbers is extraordinary. Maddon relied on matchups, very good pitching and defense to overcome those offensive deficiencies. No, it wasn't enough but 95 wins isn't nothing either.

I agree with this.

 

[CSF77]

Now I was kinda thinking about this and what the Crew did last year with Cain and Yelch. Now no one could have predicted what Yelch did here. But as far as adding 2 contact hitters like that to an already loaded OF. I personally thought it was stupid but what do I know?

Now with that thought this F/A will have Brantley and Pollock in it. Now if they followed the Crew’s lead then traded Schwarber and Almora... might be a strong 1-2 hitter everyday line up. And honestly pushing Baez/Rizzo/Bryant into RBI spots is a cure to some woes.

 

[beckdawg]

Now I was kinda thinking about this and what the Crew did last year with Cain and Yelch. Now no one could have predicted what Yelch did here. But as far as adding 2 contact hitters like that to an already loaded OF. I personally thought it was stupid but what do I know?

Now with that thought this F/A will have Brantley and Pollock in it. Now if they followed the Crew’s lead then traded Schwarber and Almora... might be a strong 1-2 hitter everyday line up. And honestly pushing Baez/Rizzo/Bryant into RBI spots is a cure to some woes.

This isn't really a strong understanding of why the cubs had trouble scoring. You're apparently suggesting they need guys in front of the RBI hitters but that wasn't the problem. The problem was that they had the wrong guys up in RBI situations. Consider this.... in Pollocks best season his OBP was .367 and that's 30 points higher than his career average. Schwarber's OBP this year was .356. He's cheaper, younger and you don't have to do anything to have him on the team. Simply put, Schwarber should be batting in front of RBI hitters until he proves he can come through with men on base. While I get that he's not the ideal #2 type hitter given his size and relative lack of speed, it's not like Pollock with a banged up knee at 31 is going to be better.

As for Brantley, i mean we've had this discussion. I'm not sure what more there is to add here. I wouldn't entirely be opposed to him but I think someone is going to over pay for him. You can suggest he's this year's version of Cain which I don't necessarily agree with but even if he is I'm still not convinced that contract over the length of it works out for MIL. Obviously it looks good now but he'll be 33 next year and players who use their legs tend to age poorly.

 

[Parade_Rain]

Did I say payback to hitting HR’s? No

I said payback to a player attacking a teammate.

Not the same thing.

If a guy hammers you well maybe he beat you and learn from it and get him out the next time.

Swear the game has become too chick friendly.

Several things. 1. too much money in the game for a team to lose a player for any length of time getting intentionally HBP. 2. Life moves forward. This isn't 1985. The NFL is doing things to try to keep its players healthy. The NHL has gotten rid of some of the fighting and head hunting over the years. That's the reality. Throwing at a guy deliberately is a lawsuit/felony waiting to happen. There's a reason netting is put up all around the backstop of Wrigley and all the other MLB fields now.

 

[CSF77]

This isn't really a strong understanding of why the cubs had trouble scoring. You're apparently suggesting they need guys in front of the RBI hitters but that wasn't the problem. The problem was that they had the wrong guys up in RBI situations. Consider this.... in Pollocks best season his OBP was .367 and that's 30 points higher than his career average. Schwarber's OBP this year was .356. He's cheaper, younger and you don't have to do anything to have him on the team. Simply put, Schwarber should be batting in front of RBI hitters until he proves he can come through with men on base. While I get that he's not the ideal #2 type hitter given his size and relative lack of speed, it's not like Pollock with a banged up knee at 31 is going to be better.

As for Brantley, i mean we've had this discussion. I'm not sure what more there is to add here. I wouldn't entirely be opposed to him but I think someone is going to over pay for him. You can suggest he's this year's version of Cain which I don't necessarily agree with but even if he is I'm still not convinced that contract over the length of it works out for MIL. Obviously it looks good now but he'll be 33 next year and players who use their legs tend to age poorly.

If you read the end I put it places Baez, Rizzo and Bryant into those RBI slots. All 3 have had near .300 BA years if you look beyond the OBA. But the OBA also plays up because you have Heyward (contact hitter) Contreras and Zobrist following them.

All this is doing is extending the quality of the line up.

Looking at Schwarber. High SO and struggles at .250. Almora opposite high contact struggles with OBA.

I honestly would rather retain Happ. He has gaps in his game but can play both the IF and OF and can fill in as a 1-2 hitter or a middle of the order bat.

End of the day you have 2 limited guys and they will have to address limited production. Now their value is honestly good. They have potential and control attached

And to add: I’m on the fence with Retaining Russell as the UI. (Not starter). Mostly due to limiting the damage and also to his weaker O to Zo and Baez. End of the day he is a damn good SS with the glove that is distracted by life. His limited production has to be immaturity and injury related. F-it I’ll cut him some slack. Not sure if he deserves it though. That will come out in the wash.

 

[CSF77]

Several things. 1. too much money in the game for a team to lose a player for any length of time getting intentionally HBP. 2. Life moves forward. This isn't 1985. The NFL is doing things to try to keep its players healthy. The NHL has gotten rid of some of the fighting and head hunting over the years. That's the reality. Throwing at a guy deliberately is a lawsuit/felony waiting to happen. There's a reason netting is put up all around the backstop of Wrigley and all the other MLB fields now.

MLB did the right thing by fining him. They know how the game is played and reacted accordingly.

Now in this instance it was resolved by both players later game as they have history.

But the play was dirty. He was running in fair territory and kicked his leg to cause a error after doing it earlier game.

I see it as he is normally a lazy player which Greg Council alluded to in interview that decided to pull some shady business to win at all costs. Seeing how he took it on himself vs a team wide thing it is all about his motivations.

 

[beckdawg]

Looking at Schwarber. High SO and struggles at .250. Almora opposite high contact struggles with OBA.

I honestly would rather retain Happ. He has gaps in his game but can play both the IF and OF and can fill in as a 1-2 hitter or a middle of the order bat.

You're going to have to explain this one to me because this makes no sense to me. You start by saying Schwarber has k issues and a low batting average. Ok... Then you say you'd rather have Happ.... who had a worse BA nearly 10% more K's. And it's not even like Happ was unfortunate hitting the ball into a shift or right at guys. His BABIP was extremely high at .362 on the season.

Even in the best case scenario, I don't see any way Happ eventually hits for a higher average than Schwarber. If you use their minor league numbers as a comparison, Schwarber hit .334/.432/.619 over 665 PAs while Happ hit .275/.362/.472 over 978 PAs. And I'll keep bringing this point up until it hits people but Schwarber hit .263/.378/.510(141 wRC+) this year with no one on base. That's not a good season. That's roughly equivalent to what you expect out of Bryant/Rizzo on a given year. In other words, Schwarber is a lot closer than people think. And sure he hit like shit with men on base this year but that's entirely my point of moving him up in the line up. You want him batting in front of RBI guys at the moment not behind them.

As for Happ, I really don't see what he brings to the team that Schwarber doesn't do at least as good. Schwarber has more power. He's farther along as a hitter. Defensively Schwarber has improved enough that there's not much difference. Ok Happ can "play" CF but he's not all that good there. Ok Happ is a switch hitter but fat lot of good that did him this year and on his career he's ~30% worse vs LHP so it's not even like he's split neutral.

I'd be shocked if Schwarber isn't with the team in 2019. He was more valuable in terms of fWAR than Rizzo for crying out loud. Trading him to take on a 31 year old OF with bad knees isn't a very smart move and what about this past year would make anyone confident Happ is the better long term play?

 

[CSF77]

Schwarber is limited to LF. Happ is not.

Schwarber takes up a starter role. Happ takes up a bench role.

We can go on here.

I did say Happ is limited. I never said starter once. I said role. Which means versatile

Outside of that Brantley would take Schwarber’s position and you can argue that one out. I’m at work ATM and get more into it later.

 

[beckdawg]

Schwarber is limited to LF. Happ is not.

Schwarber takes up a starter role. Happ takes up a bench role.

But Happ isn't particularly good anywhere defensively. You'd rather Almora in CF than him. You'd rather most of the other 2B capable defenders at 2B than him. And as mentioned he's really not any better than Schwarber in LF. He's not a particularly valuable bench player. His value is if you buy the offense in his bat but that's a starter quality not a bench quality because I don't really think he makes a particularly interesting PHer. If you're PH you typically want someone who puts the ball into play far more than he does.

As for Brantley, unless you're also signing someone like Machado or Harper he's not taking Schwarber's spot. If they were to only sign him I'd assume he'd likely play a bad CF with Heyward in RF and Schwarber in LF and probably Zobrist at 2B.

Just seems to me you're wanting to trade Schwarber and making everything work around that rather than looking at how the pieces actually would fit. As I've said before, I don't hate Brantley but I don't think he's any kind of linch pin for the offseason. The past 3 calendar years he's hit .302/.358/.452(115 wRC+). Thing is Almora in the first half of the year hit .319/.357/.438(115 wRC+). His numbers were slightly inflated by his BABIP but he's also a hell of a lot cheaper.

IMO the team is just better off keeping guys who have shown some ability but surrounding them with more vet players. If you get the guy that Schwarber was with no one on base all the time that's an MVP caliber bat. If you get the guy Almora was or close to it he's as good as Brantley. By building in some redundancy having those two essentially platooning you're limiting your risk while allowing you to highlight their strengths as each does what the other doesn't. And simply put a platoon of those two is going to out produce Brantley. It did this past season.

How you choose to go about adding vets is open for debate IMO. I've already said I'd go after Machado but you could also sign Harper and move Heyward to CF. I think unless Russell is back that would leave you a little weak in the MI but it still works and would make the line up more stable.

 

[CSF77]

But Happ isn't particularly good anywhere defensively. You'd rather Almora in CF than him. You'd rather most of the other 2B capable defenders at 2B than him. And as mentioned he's really not any better than Schwarber in LF. He's not a particularly valuable bench player. His value is if you buy the offense in his bat but that's a starter quality not a bench quality because I don't really think he makes a particularly interesting PHer. If you're PH you typically want someone who puts the ball into play far more than he does.

As for Brantley, unless you're also signing someone like Machado or Harper he's not taking Schwarber's spot. If they were to only sign him I'd assume he'd likely play a bad CF with Heyward in RF and Schwarber in LF and probably Zobrist at 2B.

Just seems to me you're wanting to trade Schwarber and making everything work around that rather than looking at how the pieces actually would fit. As I've said before, I don't hate Brantley but I don't think he's any kind of linch pin for the offseason. The past 3 calendar years he's hit .302/.358/.452(115 wRC+). Thing is Almora in the first half of the year hit .319/.357/.438(115 wRC+). His numbers were slightly inflated by his BABIP but he's also a hell of a lot cheaper.

IMO the team is just better off keeping guys who have shown some ability but surrounding them with more vet players. If you get the guy that Schwarber was with no one on base all the time that's an MVP caliber bat. If you get the guy Almora was or close to it he's as good as Brantley. By building in some redundancy having those two essentially platooning you're limiting your risk while allowing you to highlight their strengths as each does what the other doesn't. And simply put a platoon of those two is going to out produce Brantley. It did this past season.

How you choose to go about adding vets is open for debate IMO. I've already said I'd go after Machado but you could also sign Harper and move Heyward to CF. I think unless Russell is back that would leave you a little weak in the MI but it still works and would make the line up more stable.

If we were talking about starter vs bench role then yes Almora is a better CF than Happ.

As a bench player you want a guy that can play many positions vs static. Except catcher. And this is where I draw the line with LaStella and Bote. Neither play SS but are taking up a UI roster spot. Kinda a waste of roster utility.

Baez has given Maddon a free pass to do what he wanted. Russell’s issues has limited the roster and this will continue into May.

So I would approach it as: I’m keeping Russell I need a temp like freeman or I need Bote playing 100% SS at winter ball to hold the fort.
Or I’m offing Russell in ‘a’ way. Can of worms.... and then attempt to fix this in ‘a’ way...ditto.

If it was ‘me’ I have a decent UI in AA and Nico in ?. So I am not depleted like I was a year ago. So that is a factor in my decision making.

So long term I think I’m good. It is almost smart to hold the deck and let Russell regain value because I have control and time in my favor.

 

[beckdawg]

If we were talking about starter vs bench role then yes Almora is a better CF than Happ.

As a bench player you want a guy that can play many positions vs static. Except catcher. And this is where I draw the line with LaStella and Bote. Neither play SS but are taking up a UI roster spot. Kinda a waste of roster utility.

Baez has given Maddon a free pass to do what he wanted. Russell’s issues has limited the roster and this will continue into May.

So I would approach it as: I’m keeping Russell I need a temp like freeman or I need Bote playing 100% SS at winter ball to hold the fort.
Or I’m offing Russell in ‘a’ way. Can of worms.... and then attempt to fix this in ‘a’ way...ditto.

If it was ‘me’ I have a decent UI in AA and Nico in ?. So I am not depleted like I was a year ago. So that is a factor in my decision making.

So long term I think I’m good. It is almost smart to hold the deck and let Russell regain value because I have control and time in my favor.

I don't think you need a Freeman if they plan to keep Russell. You can get by with Bote or if Joe really wants to be crazy Bryant for a game or two during April. I mean you're talking roughly 25 games. If you assume 5 games a week for the 5 weeks from late march-end of april and you assume you rest Baez or whomever is playing SS once a week that's 5 games. And if you bring in machado you can switch it up even more than that by playing Baez there on one day you rest Machado...etc.

As for Happ being more versatile, I think it's more than just that. You need to provide something that someone else doesn't. What I mean by that is if you're choosing between Happ and Schwarber it's not much of a choice for LF because neither is that strong defensively and Schwarber has been a better hitter. If it's Happ vs Almora then you have Almora providing the best CF defense likely on the team.

IMO what you saw with happ in the 2nd half was a guy without a real role. He's an interesting player if he hits like he did in 2017 but if he's average or worse then what's his niche? On the contrary, Almora at the worst gives you solid defense. Schwarber gives you a more solid bat...etc. That's the problem I have with happ right now and why ultimately if anyone goes it's my assumption it will be him.

 

[CSF77]

I don't think you need a Freeman if they plan to keep Russell. You can get by with Bote or if Joe really wants to be crazy Bryant for a game or two during April. I mean you're talking roughly 25 games. If you assume 5 games a week for the 5 weeks from late march-end of april and you assume you rest Baez or whomever is playing SS once a week that's 5 games. And if you bring in machado you can switch it up even more than that by playing Baez there on one day you rest Machado...etc.

As for Happ being more versatile, I think it's more than just that. You need to provide something that someone else doesn't. What I mean by that is if you're choosing between Happ and Schwarber it's not much of a choice for LF because neither is that strong defensively and Schwarber has been a better hitter. If it's Happ vs Almora then you have Almora providing the best CF defense likely on the team.

IMO what you saw with happ in the 2nd half was a guy without a real role. He's an interesting player if he hits like he did in 2017 but if he's average or worse then what's his niche? On the contrary, Almora at the worst gives you solid defense. Schwarber gives you a more solid bat...etc. That's the problem I have with happ right now and why ultimately if anyone goes it's my assumption it will be him.

Almora is a decent argument. Schwarber is not.

Lets say they did sign both:

Pollock CF .257/.316/.484 Almora: .286/.323/.378
Brantley LF .309/.364/.468 Schwarber .238/.356/.467

Actually you have a better argument of not going after AJ because Almora is not a drop off. Brantley is a upgrade to Schwarber.

Happ .233/.353/.408 Closer to Schwarber but does play CF and 3B. Can play RF.

End of the day a bench player needs to be able to play different roles because injury can happen to anyone.

 

[beckdawg]

Brantley is a upgrade to Schwarber.

I really don't agree with this at all. There's a massive split between what Schwarber did with men on base and without men on base. You're talking about .263/.378/.510(141 wRC+) vs .205/.326/.411(77). The point here is that there is clear evidence that Schwarber can be better than a .238 hitter. In fact, I'd argue the .263/.378 line is his real talent. The fact that he's terrible with runners on base simply has to be something he's doing approach wise. And because that's something he's changing vs what he normally does with no one on base that means it's something you can fix.

Also, it's not like he has never hit well with men on base either. In 2015, he hit .270/.364/.550(147) with men on base which just so happens to be quite similar to what he did without anyone on this year. If he pulls it all together and is a .260-.270/.360-.370/.510-.550 hitter that's basically Bryce Harper's career line(.279/.388/.512 140 wRC+). And none of that even mentions the potential for him to improve vs LHP.

Sure if you take that risk with Schwarber you're going into the season with the possibility he's just what he did this year. But, if you're also effectively platooning him and Almora that player is still better than Brantley. Schwarber hit .241/.356/.503(121 wRC+) vs RHP this past season and Almora has hit .309/.360/.456(117 wRC+) vs LHP in his career. And neither of them is 31, about to get paid handsomely in FA and has a lengthy injury history.

Simply put it's just not money well spent when you can effectively get the same out of Almora/Schwarber from this season for 1/5 the cost not to mention the fact either could break out and make the argument academic. You get far more bang for your buck by upgrading SS or CF(via moving Heyward to CF). Last year the cubs OPS for CF was .756 at SS it was .742. Schwarber's OPS was .823. If you're moving Heyward to CF and say replacing RF with Harper his OPS was .889. Machado's OPS was .905. Brantley's was .832. In other words you're talking a 9 point difference between Schwarber and Brantley and a 149 point difference between Machado/cubs SS or 147 point difference between Harper and the group of CF's.

 

[CSF77]

I really don't agree with this at all. There's a massive split between what Schwarber did with men on base and without men on base. You're talking about .263/.378/.510(141 wRC+) vs .205/.326/.411(77). The point here is that there is clear evidence that Schwarber can be better than a .238 hitter. In fact, I'd argue the .263/.378 line is his real talent. The fact that he's terrible with runners on base simply has to be something he's doing approach wise. And because that's something he's changing vs what he normally does with no one on base that means it's something you can fix.

Also, it's not like he has never hit well with men on base either. In 2015, he hit .270/.364/.550(147) with men on base which just so happens to be quite similar to what he did without anyone on this year. If he pulls it all together and is a .260-.270/.360-.370/.510-.550 hitter that's basically Bryce Harper's career line(.279/.388/.512 140 wRC+). And none of that even mentions the potential for him to improve vs LHP.

Sure if you take that risk with Schwarber you're going into the season with the possibility he's just what he did this year. But, if you're also effectively platooning him and Almora that player is still better than Brantley. Schwarber hit .241/.356/.503(121 wRC+) vs RHP this past season and Almora has hit .309/.360/.456(117 wRC+) vs LHP in his career. And neither of them is 31, about to get paid handsomely in FA and has a lengthy injury history.

Simply put it's just not money well spent when you can effectively get the same out of Almora/Schwarber from this season for 1/5 the cost not to mention the fact either could break out and make the argument academic. You get far more bang for your buck by upgrading SS or CF(via moving Heyward to CF). Last year the cubs OPS for CF was .756 at SS it was .742. Schwarber's OPS was .823. If you're moving Heyward to CF and say replacing RF with Harper his OPS was .889. Machado's OPS was .905. Brantley's was .832. In other words you're talking a 9 point difference between Schwarber and Brantley and a 149 point difference between Machado/cubs SS or 147 point difference between Harper and the group of CF's.

Focus:

On base he focuses on hitting to drive in.

Empty he focuses on getting on base.

He has 2 diffrent approaches and the results you posted. That is why he failed as a lead off. He takes away his own at bat.

 

[CSF77]

Another factor I believe is the shift. They can’t utilize it with men on. So he still has not gotten past that.

 

[anotheridiot]

You just need to let Schwarber get at bats. No home runs against lefties, but how can you blame a guy who only gets 91 plate appearances against lefties? Look at his on base numbers last year .356 against righties, .352 against lefties. He improved his fielding, gas a .995 fielding percentage, 11 outfield assists, and is getting pulled in the sixth inning so he is not an option at the plate in the late innings. Maybe if they did move Happ Joe would not have his boy toy to force into every game and Schwarber would get more chances to get a game winning hit. Look at his world series run, lives for the big moment. Game on the line, 40 fucking games you cant score more than a run, and a guy that can hit the buildings across the street is pulled for defense.

Gotta give a guy opportunities to get on a roll. Its alot of pressure knowing when he does get to start, he probably has 2 or 3 at bats before he is out. Why would a guy like this continue to work on his defense?

 

[CSF77]

You just need to let Schwarber get at bats. No home runs against lefties, but how can you blame a guy who only gets 91 plate appearances against lefties? Look at his on base numbers last year .356 against righties, .352 against lefties. He improved his fielding, gas a .995 fielding percentage, 11 outfield assists, and is getting pulled in the sixth inning so he is not an option at the plate in the late innings. Maybe if they did move Happ Joe would not have his boy toy to force into every game and Schwarber would get more chances to get a game winning hit. Look at his world series run, lives for the big moment. Game on the line, 40 fucking games you cant score more than a run, and a guy that can hit the buildings across the street is pulled for defense.

Gotta give a guy opportunities to get on a roll. Its alot of pressure knowing when he does get to start, he probably has 2 or 3 at bats before he is out. Why would a guy like this continue to work on his defense?

His production would worsen. As is he is getting hammered with the shift and the only time that he has success is when some one is on base preventing it. Even then he is only hitting .265ish which I guess is a minor victory.

Vs a guy that hit .309. Yep

Honestly I really don’t agree. Too much coulda, woulda shoulda for my pallet.

 

[Omeletpants]

You just need to let Schwarber get at bats. No home runs against lefties, but how can you blame a guy who only gets 91 plate appearances against lefties?

How about that Schwarber's AB against lefties are embarrssing. He flails and lunges at the ball. What makes it worse is that he tries to pull the ball as it sails 6" off the plate. Whenever I see Schwaber against a lefty my first thought is "no fucking way". I think he feels the same way