Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[Parade_Rain]

I understand your point from a baseball value perspective and I also think it is completely irrelevant from the perspective that management/ownership seem to be considering. It doesn't sound like this is about "optics." It sounds like they are genuinely disgusted with him and are willing to take a moral stand even if it costs them value.

Are they disgusted with him or don't want to deal with the drama? You've heard from sources or these are reports? I'd love links. Not that I don't believe you, because I do.

 

[fatbeard]

Are they disgusted with him or don't want to deal with the drama? You've heard from sources or these are reports? I'd love links. Not that I don't believe you, because I do.

Wittenmeyer, Levine, Sharma, etc., literally every Cubs reporter who I've heard interviewed today has said they believe Russell is gone.

 

[CSF77]

Russell needs to go. Somethings can’t be quantified by a number.

 

[CSF77]

This is going to be a very fun offseason. I think we're going to see at least 2 "big" trades with guys like Schwarber, Happ, and Russell potentially out there and the Cubs being in the thick of things for Machado or Harper.

Sometimes I would label Machado/Harper and the Cubs as hype. Right now I don’t. This ending I’m pretty sure has left a bad taste in the mouths of the team as a whole. Russell is a distraction. Chatwood was a failed signing. When you dish out a 3 year on a guy that is not even good enough to pitch a single out it makes your name mudd.

Darvish: shit happens.

But then you look at what worked. Hamels and Chavez. Worked out great and you have to retain your assets.

Murphy honestly I’m borderline with him. I don’t think I would complain either way.

Happ sophomore slump or gaping holes in his swing?

Schwarber: I see him as a underachieving player. He is not agressive enough and it caused a demotion the year before. When you strike out 140 times in under 500 AB’s there is a fundamental problem with his approach.

Now some guys will work and others will not. I get that. But when you target type A player over and over again your line up becomes type A. In this case type A is not Baez. Type A is wait for your pitch and take first.

Sure that is fine having that in the mix but a whole line up of it becomes feast of famine. A case in point was that last game. The 1 run was manufactured. But 12 innings went by waiting on the big inning. We are not stupid here. We get it. The line up needs more balance and that doesn’t mean 4 lefties and 4 righties. It means speed. Moving guys over and creating runs vs waiting for a mistake.

 

[beckdawg]

Found theo's comments on Russell interesting. Said he wanted to reach out to both Russell and his ex-wife and get them any help they needed. Those comments didn't come off to me as them already having made up their mind that he was gone. Admittedly, I'm sure he's on very thin ice. But when you preface a question about his future talking about wanting to get him help that doesn't strike me as someone who's already out the door. Seems like they are leaving themselves an out.

 

[anotheridiot]

OK, so who wants to fight me if I suggest Heyward might think he deserves a raise and will opt out. His balance is a mere 21.5 million per year. He just had his contract comeback year, Harper will be getting 30 something, I think he might believe he can get another 8/200 from a team that loses out on Harper and make himself another 40 million.

He has 5 left so thats around 125.

 

[beckdawg]

OK, so who wants to fight me if I suggest Heyward might think he deserves a raise and will opt out. His balance is a mere 21.5 million per year. He just had his contract comeback year, Harper will be getting 30 something, I think he might believe he can get another 8/200 from a team that loses out on Harper and make himself another 40 million.

That's a hell of a gamble for him to make to think he can get more than the remaining $106 mil over 5 years he's got left. Typically speaking if you're not making more than $15 mil a year you're not getting more than 4 years. If you're over $20 mil you might get 6-7 years. I find it difficult to believe he's going to get more than $20 mil a season given the past 3 years.

The absolute best case for him I think is a deal similar to what he already has with the cubs and there's no guarantee he gets that.

 

[beckdawg]

QO is set at $17.9 mil. I'm curious if Andrew Miller gets one because that's a pretty hefty chunk of change to guarantee a 33 year old reliever who had a down year. If he doesn't get a QO he becomes far more interesting

 

[TL1961]

Framing is just border line pitches. I tend to look at raw BB% more honestly. If he is meh on getting a corner call then it is up to the pitcher to put it over the white vs sit in the black.

To me it is better to look at game calling and sequencing pitches. If you see the pitcher shaking him off all of the time they are not on the same page. If they are going along with his calls and the success is there then red flagging a borderline talent is eggheadded.

End of the day the staff was not bad. It was the O being feast or famine. If anything the staff over achieved in face of injuries and under performance. Cherry picking framing is a shitty way of devaluing what he did.

You realize that throwing the ball more toward the center of the plate has ramifications far beyond decreasing walks, right? Pitchers will get killed if they can't work the black.

 

[chibears55]

Thinking about this now...

If they bring Hamels back, SP is set
Lester
Hamels
Darvish
Hendricks
Quintana

just need to strengthen the pen a bit more, and the pitching set

Theo main focus then will be either Machado or Harper
Then it basically depending on who they get, making deals to open up their spot and adding where needed

I think the Schwarber Russell Happ and Almora, whomever they decide to trade could net them pitching prospects ..

The SP group now is up there in age, and they could use those guys to stock the system with more arms

Theo wasn't happy with the offense, i think he gonna shake it up a bit

 

[fatbeard]

OK, so who wants to fight me if I suggest Heyward might think he deserves a raise and will opt out. His balance is a mere 21.5 million per year. He just had his contract comeback year, Harper will be getting 30 something, I think he might believe he can get another 8/200 from a team that loses out on Harper and make himself another 40 million.

He has 5 left so thats around 125.

I'm not going to fight you but I will speculate on whether you were dropped on your head as a child. Heyward was barely a league-average player this year. He's accumulated 4.0 fWAR in three years. There is no GM on this planet that is going to offer him 8/200, which would carry him until he's 38 years old. He might get a 2-3 year deal for $30-45mil, which means he's walking away from $65-75mil on his current contract.

That is insane. It would be the stupidest contract decision by a player since Ian Desmond walked away from the 7/107 that the Nats offered him.

 

[beckdawg]

I think the Schwarber Russell Happ and Almora, whomever they decide to trade could net them pitching prospects

I don't agree for 2 reasons. 1) a competitive team isn't trading MLB talent for prospects. It just doesn't happen. If you're trading those players away you're getting back something to help you win now not 2-3 years from now. 2) I think this is an inaccurate understanding of what the cubs are doing with their pitching development. I could talk a lot about this but I'll try to summarize.

Simply put, when you think cubs draft/development think Kyle Hendricks. Well ok that's probably not entirely fair... make that a range from Hendricks to say Alec Mills. The cubs philosophy is to essentially flood the system with strike throwers who can be 3-5 guys and use the money you save there to go after your Lester's/Darvish's. They aren't trying to find the next guy with crazy stuff. The reason is those type of pitchers are quite risky.

If they are going to move those players IMO it's going to be for one of two things. Either they go out and grab this years version of Davis/Chapman or they put together a package for a position player who can make an impact.

 

[chibears55]

I don't agree for 2 reasons. 1) a competitive team isn't trading MLB talent for prospects. It just doesn't happen. If you're trading those players away you're getting back something to help you win now not 2-3 years from now. 2) I think this is an inaccurate understanding of what the cubs are doing with their pitching development. I could talk a lot about this but I'll try to summarize.

Simply put, when you think cubs draft/development think Kyle Hendricks. Well ok that's probably not entirely fair... make that a range from Hendricks to say Alec Mills. The cubs philosophy is to essentially flood the system with strike throwers who can be 3-5 guys and use the money you save there to go after your Lester's/Darvish's. They aren't trying to find the next guy with crazy stuff. The reason is those type of pitchers are quite risky.

If they are going to move those players IMO it's going to be for one of two things. Either they go out and grab this years version of Davis/Chapman or they put together a package for a position player who can make an impact.

That too...

 

[CSF77]

You realize that throwing the ball more toward the center of the plate has ramifications far beyond decreasing walks, right? Pitchers will get killed if they can't work the black.

If you are good at sequencing pitches this lessens. In general if it is a fastball count and you throw a fastball you are going to get hammered regardless. If you go with a change in a fastball count you can induce swings.

It factors don’t get me wrong. But it a part of it. Being able to deceive is also a part of it. Shit to n Chatwood case just catching his shit he should get a merit award of fucking awesomeness

 

[beckdawg]

That too...

To expand upon this, I could see them making some sort of big positional player trade though at present time I have literally no idea who it would be. I was looking at this earlier and basically the type of guy the cubs need is hard to find.

One idea I did have was Adam Eaton. I'm not sure Washington would trade him but if they bring Harper back you would have Harper, Robbles, and Soto as you're potential starting OF. I could perhaps see something built around Happ ++ for Eaton since they really don't have a good option for 2B going into next year. They could rapidly promote Carter Kieboom but he's more a glove first SS than a bat first 2B.

 

[CSF77]

To expand upon this, I could see them making some sort of big positional player trade though at present time I have literally no idea who it would be. I was looking at this earlier and basically the type of guy the cubs need is hard to find.

One idea I did have was Adam Eaton. I'm not sure Washington would trade him but if they bring Harper back you would have Harper, Robbles, and Soto as you're potential starting OF. I could perhaps see something built around Happ ++ for Eaton since they really don't have a good option for 2B going into next year. They could rapidly promote Carter Kieboom but he's more a glove first SS than a bat first 2B.

2019 30 Washington Nationals $8,400,000
2020 31 Washington Nationals *$9,500,000 $9.5M Team Option, $1.5M Buyout
2021 32 Washington Nationals *$10,500,000 $10.5M Team Option, $1.5M Buyout
Earliest Free Agent: 2020

So are you thinking Heyward in CF and Eaton in RF? D would be excellent honestly.

 

[chibears55]

To expand upon this, I could see them making some sort of big positional player trade though at present time I have literally no idea who it would be. I was looking at this earlier and basically the type of guy the cubs need is hard to find.

One idea I did have was Adam Eaton. I'm not sure Washington would trade him but if they bring Harper back you would have Harper, Robbles, and Soto as you're potential starting OF. I could perhaps see something built around Happ ++ for Eaton since they really don't have a good option for 2B going into next year. They could rapidly promote Carter Kieboom but he's more a glove first SS than a bat first 2B.

I see the Cubs looking for an everyday CFer..

Thinking about this too..
If they decide to go with Baez at SS, i can see them possibly just going with Zobrist and Bote at 2B

 

[beckdawg]

2019 30 Washington Nationals $8,400,000
2020 31 Washington Nationals *$9,500,000 $9.5M Team Option, $1.5M Buyout
2021 32 Washington Nationals *$10,500,000 $10.5M Team Option, $1.5M Buyout
Earliest Free Agent: 2020

So are you thinking Heyward in CF and Eaton in RF? D would be excellent honestly.

Not sure it really matters how you position them. With that being said Eaton does have a bit of a split(122 wRC+ vs RHP and 96 vs LHP on his career). I suppose that also sorta still works with Almora because you can pick and choose which days you want Schwarber vs LHP and which days you want Eaton.

Washington's top 3 pitchers last year were Scherzer Stras and Roark who are all RHP. Their only pitching prospect in their top 30 on mlb.com who finished above AA was Austin Voth who's not much of a prospect. Joe Ross a former prospect is also RHP as is Erick Fedde.

Maybe Happ + Monty for Eaton? Seems some what fair no?

 

[Parade_Rain]

Not sure it really matters how you position them. With that being said Eaton does have a bit of a split(122 wRC+ vs RHP and 96 vs LHP on his career). I suppose that also sorta still works with Almora because you can pick and choose which days you want Schwarber vs LHP and which days you want Eaton.

Washington's top 3 pitchers last year were Scherzer Stras and Roark who are all RHP. Their only pitching prospect in their top 30 on mlb.com who finished above AA was Austin Voth who's not much of a prospect. Joe Ross a former prospect is also RHP as is Erick Fedde.

Maybe Happ + Monty for Eaton? Seems some what fair no?

Curious why you are choosing Happ as opposed to Schwarber?

 

[beckdawg]

Curious why you are choosing Happ as opposed to Schwarber?

Well there's a couple of reasons. One I like Schwarber as a player better long term. IMO Schwarber has shown he's a better hitter thus far in all metrics. One could argue Happ is a better defender but the metrics like Schwarber a lot more this year than Happ. And even if you assume the metrics are wrong on Happ, I don't think there's enough difference defensively between the two to matter. Plus, I think Schwarber's upside with his bat is far more than Happ. Happ probably has max upside of like 30 HRs Schwarber if he reaches his peak potential could probably hit 40-50.

But setting that aside, why would Washington need Schwarber? The presumption on my part is they are only going to trade Eaton if they re-sign Harper. If they do that they have Soto in the other corner and likely Robbles in CF. Happ can play 2B. Schwarber can't. After dealing Murphy the Nats don't have an obvious starting 2B.