Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[Parade_Rain]

Well there's a couple of reasons. One I like Schwarber as a player better long term. IMO Schwarber has shown he's a better hitter thus far in all metrics. One could argue Happ is a better defender but the metrics like Schwarber a lot more this year than Happ. And even if you assume the metrics are wrong on Happ, I don't think there's enough difference defensively between the two to matter. Plus, I think Schwarber's upside with his bat is far more than Happ. Happ probably has max upside of like 30 HRs Schwarber if he reaches his peak potential could probably hit 40-50.

But setting that aside, why would Washington need Schwarber? The presumption on my part is they are only going to trade Eaton if they re-sign Harper. If they do that they have Soto in the other corner and likely Robbles in CF. Happ can play 2B. Schwarber can't. After dealing Murphy the Nats don't have an obvious starting 2B.

In the context of the trade to Washington with Harper signed, I can agree.

 

[CSF77]

Not sure it really matters how you position them. With that being said Eaton does have a bit of a split(122 wRC+ vs RHP and 96 vs LHP on his career). I suppose that also sorta still works with Almora because you can pick and choose which days you want Schwarber vs LHP and which days you want Eaton.

Washington's top 3 pitchers last year were Scherzer Stras and Roark who are all RHP. Their only pitching prospect in their top 30 on mlb.com who finished above AA was Austin Voth who's not much of a prospect. Joe Ross a former prospect is also RHP as is Erick Fedde.

Maybe Happ + Monty for Eaton? Seems some what fair no?

How about Chatwood and Russell for Alex Gorden? Alex back to back shit years and owed 20 mil with a 23 mil mutual 4 mil buy in 2020.

After that you can go Montgomery for something. Maybe pack up him and Schwarber and look at a decent return.

Dee Gordon: 3 years left on his deal. About 27 mil owed. Flip Schwarber and Montgomery for him. Solves the lead off issue then.

So OF: Gordon, Almora, Heyward
IF: Bryant, Baez, Gordon, Rizzo
Contreras

The way I look at it is you rid 2 head aches and take 1 back. Then with Yu and Smyly returning it opens up Montgomery. Schwarber becomes expendable now so it makes sense to go after your open IF position.

Now Dee is also coming off repressed value but is 1 year removed from a 200 hit season. So making that trade is a gamble honestly. But Montgomery did pitch there before so there is history and he is more accomplished now. Schwarber could dud or explode.

 

[beckdawg]

I brought this up in the maddon topic but I think it's really interesting so i'm going to bring it up again here....

Schwarber hit .205/.326/.411(77 wRC+) with men on base and .263/.378/.510(141 wRC+) with the bases empty. Why is this a big deal? Well if you can hit for a 141 wRC+ with no one on you should be able to do it with runners on. But the question I asked in the Maddon topic was why not bat Schwarber 2nd? Schwarber was 4th on the team in OBP behind Zobrist(probably your lead off hitter next year atm) and Rizzo and Bryant. Bryant on the other hand has hit well with runners on both of the past 2 seasons but has few RBI's because the cubs didn't have a lead off guy.

This seems like a no brainer to me. You bat Schwarber second and Bryant third. It appears to me the reason why Schwarber struggled with men on base is he tried to go the opposite way more rather than pulling the ball and it obviously didn't work out for him. Batting him 2nd would likely put him up with fewer men on but you then still get the benefit of his high OBP. The obvious hope is he eventually will figure out something that works with runners on but you're talking like a 50% difference between Bryant with runners on and Schwarber. That's likely dozens of runs over the course of the year.

When I say things like I think Schwarber has more potential than say Happ it's this sorta stuff i'm talking about. A 141 wRC+ is an MVP caliber bat. He did that over 288 PAs so it's not a small sample either. In case you're wondering the gap between those two situations in 2017 was 109 to 92 wRC+. His pull rate was down about 2% that year vs the 4% this year. In 2015 his wRC+ was 117 and 147 with his pull rate being probably within the margin of error at 1%. I'm not sure if that's a case of Maddon telling him to go the other way more or if it's Chili but it seems like what he's doing with it currently isn't working. Doesn't mean he wont eventually get that to work and given the shift will often be on him that makes sense to do. But currently that seems like it's really hurting his production.

 

[TL1961]

Thinking about this now...

If they bring Hamels back, SP is set
Lester
Hamels
Darvish
Hendricks
Quintana

just need to strengthen the pen a bit more, and the pitching set

Theo main focus then will be either Machado or Harper
Then it basically depending on who they get, making deals to open up their spot and adding where needed

I think the Schwarber Russell Happ and Almora, whomever they decide to trade could net them pitching prospects ..

The SP group now is up there in age, and they could use those guys to stock the system with more arms

Theo wasn't happy with the offense, i think he gonna shake it up a bit

Good grief. If someone asked you the time you couldn’t answer without mentioning trading Schwarber and Russell.

 

[beckdawg]

How about Chatwood and Russell for Alex Gorden? Alex back to back shit years and owed 20 mil with a 23 mil mutual 4 mil buy in 2020.

After that you can go Montgomery for something. Maybe pack up him and Schwarber and look at a decent return.

Dee Gordon: 3 years left on his deal. About 27 mil owed. Flip Schwarber and Montgomery for him. Solves the lead off issue then.

So OF: Gordon, Almora, Heyward
IF: Bryant, Baez, Gordon, Rizzo
Contreras

The way I look at it is you rid 2 head aches and take 1 back. Then with Yu and Smyly returning it opens up Montgomery. Schwarber becomes expendable now so it makes sense to go after your open IF position.

Now Dee is also coming off repressed value but is 1 year removed from a 200 hit season. So making that trade is a gamble honestly. But Montgomery did pitch there before so there is history and he is more accomplished now. Schwarber could dud or explode.

Gordon doesn't do much for me. He's gonna be 35 and has 3 straight years under 90 wRC+ That doesn't seem like something that will correct itself. I don't see why the M's would do that deal and as I've said before I wouldn't trade Schwarber. Seattle got Gordon to play CF because they literally had no one else in their org who can do it. Getting rid of him just opens the problem up again. Plus they had Monty already and traded him away.

 

[CSF77]

Gordon doesn't do much for me. He's gonna be 35 and has 3 straight years under 90 wRC+ That doesn't seem like something that will correct itself. I don't see why the M's would do that deal and as I've said before I wouldn't trade Schwarber. Seattle got Gordon to play CF because they literally had no one else in their org who can do it. Getting rid of him just opens the problem up again. Plus they had Monty already and traded him away.

No he sucks. He would be a great glove in LF and anything else is gravy. What he represents is a bad contract. And a 24 mil cost one. Chatwood is owed 25.5 mil. Russell you could not offer arb but at min he is making 2.5 mil after his 40 game non paid is served.

Worst case is a play as a 4th OF and cut if needed. You are saving pay roll and opening contract faster.

They are not going to be able to get rid of these 2 duds with out taking a eyesore in return. At least that eyesore won a GG. and didn't play slap-a-hoe

 

[chibears55]

Good grief. If someone asked you the time you couldn’t answer without mentioning trading Schwarber and Russell.

Good grief..
You think you can stop behaving like frickin teenage girl on here and quit your bitching and whining

WTF

Good conversations going on and you have to ***** like frickn child

 

[TL1961]

Schwarber with nobody on doesn’t net you much though. He’s not speedy. Zobrist/Schwarber 1-2 clogs it up.

Schwarber swings and misses a lot still. More his problem than trying to go the other way I think.

 

[beckdawg]

No he sucks. He would be a great glove in LF and anything else is gravy. What he represents is a bad contract. And a 24 mil cost one. Chatwood is owed 25.5 mil. Russell you could not offer arb but at min he is making 2.5 mil after his 40 game non paid is served.

Worst case is a play as a 4th OF and cut if needed. You are saving pay roll and opening contract faster.

I mean I would just bring Chatwood to camp. You never know if someone is gonna get hurt and he could be better. If he's fixed his walk rate to his career rates and some team blows out an elbow you might be able to get a middling prospect for him. His deal isn't that expensive if he pitches like a #4/5 starter.

 

[beckdawg]

Schwarber with nobody on doesn’t net you much though. He’s not speedy. Zobrist/Schwarber 1-2 clogs it up.

Schwarber swings and misses a lot still. More his problem than trying to go the other way I think.

27.8 % K rate with no one on and 27.0 % with men on base. Identical walk rate this year in both circumstances. I suppose it could be BABIP. .239 with men on and .327 without but his hard hit rate is 43.6% with no one on vs 35.9% with runners on. So clearly something is going on different there.

Also as for clogging it up is schwarber that much worse of a runner than Bryant was? I mean Bryant runs the bases pretty well but neither is gonna steal.

 

[CSF77]

I mean I would just bring Chatwood to camp. You never know if someone is gonna get hurt and he could be better. If he's fixed his walk rate to his career rates and some team blows out an elbow you might be able to get a middling prospect for him. His deal isn't that expensive if he pitches like a #4/5 starter.

Heard Moses did wonders with water. I love fables.

 

[beckdawg]

Heard Moses did wonders with water. I love fables.

Not sure hoping he goes back to a 4ish bb/9 is a fable. I'm not saying he's gonna be good but there's a chance he's a serviceable 5th starter.

 

[CSF77]

27.8 % K rate with no one on and 27.0 % with men on base. Identical walk rate this year in both circumstances. I suppose it could be BABIP. .239 with men on and .327 without but his hard hit rate is 43.6% with no one on vs 35.9% with runners on. So clearly something is going on different there.

Also as for clogging it up is schwarber that much worse of a runner than Bryant was? I mean Bryant runs the bases pretty well but neither is gonna steal.

I have to agree here. Schwarber is a anchor if he gets on. I would rather they attacked from speed at the top. Zo has some games left in him and did well hitting 2. Hell I even like Almora there. More traditional line up.

 

[CSF77]

Not sure hoping he goes back to a 4ish bb/9 is a fable. I'm not saying he's gonna be good but there's a chance he's a serviceable 5th starter.

My opinion: He was fucked up to begin with. Then they tinkered on a guy that was plucked from a bad pitching environment. Then he was incapable of adjusting. Wishful thinking at best that all of a sudden his head pops out of his keester honestly.

 

[beckdawg]

I have to agree here. Schwarber is a anchor if he gets on. I would rather they attacked from speed at the top. Zo has some games left in him and did well hitting 2. Hell I even like Almora there. More traditional line up.

That's fine if you have a traditional line up worth of players but where's the speed on this team? It doesn't exist outside of Baez. Almora isn't a good runner either. In fact for their career's Almora is -4.9 BsR on fangraphs to Schwarber's 3.0.

 

[beckdawg]

My opinion: He was fucked up to begin with. Then they tinkered on a guy that was plucked from a bad pitching environment. Then he was incapable of adjusting. Wishful thinking at best that all of a sudden his head pops out of his keester honestly.

My only point was if he goes back to the COL version of himself he can eat innings for some shitty team who loses a starter in spring training nand hopes they find more there. Maybe you eat a little bit money wise but I'd rather eat half his contract in my situation and maybe get a fringe top 50 type org prospect than to just take on another bad contract of a 35 year old.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly Denver should fix that shit of pull out. Long history of BS there. Even a far better pitcher in Holland came out fucked up. Then Davis from a 1-2 era guy to a 4? Ya wait on that stuff...

All said and done his response of I need to be myself and train wrecking after sealed my opinion. Yep carry on smartly bro.

 

[CSF77]

My only point was if he goes back to the COL version of himself he can eat innings for some shitty team who loses a starter in spring training nand hopes they find more there. Maybe you eat a little bit money wise but I'd rather eat half his contract in my situation and maybe get a fringe top 50 type org prospect than to just take on another bad contract of a 35 year old.

Well you could just make the trade and cut. Eat year 1 then owe 4 mil year 2. I would rather keep and take the plus D in the OF myself. There are very bad deals out there. His honestly really is not a big one.

 

[CSF77]

Actually speaking of Holland...He kinda fixed himself with the Nats. F/A and most likely repressed value. Shit just saying.

But interesting point: With Stl 7.9 BB/9 7.9 SO/9 That to me seems screwed up release point due to over compensation in Col. But he was able to adjust. 4.2 with nats and upped his SO to 10.5.

It just says more about the person vs anything else. Greg is a pro and it took time. Can't say the same about Chut.

I honestly think that you could offer 5 with incentives and it makes a interesting situation late inning.

 

[TL1961]

27.8 % K rate with no one on and 27.0 % with men on base. Identical walk rate this year in both circumstances. I suppose it could be BABIP. .239 with men on and .327 without but his hard hit rate is 43.6% with no one on vs 35.9% with runners on. So clearly something is going on different there.

Also as for clogging it up is schwarber that much worse of a runner than Bryant was? I mean Bryant runs the bases pretty well but neither is gonna steal.

Bryant is as good a baserunner as there is in MLB. First to third, second to home - not the fastest, but has great instincts and is very aggressive, while rarely (ever?) getting thrown out on the basepaths.

Not that Schwarber sucks. But Bryant is terrific. Very underrated.