Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[JimJohnson]

Who is Delcaso?

 

[CSF77]

Who is Delcaso?

Daniel Descalso sorry miss spell

He kinda threw me a loop as his splits were backwards last year.

 

[TL1961]

isnt zobrist in the final year of a 4 yr 40 million?---so they would only save 10 mil?

That's a ton of money.

 

[TL1961]

Descalso isn't that good. I'm not that excited about him getting a bunch of PT. I think of him more as a LaStella fill in. PH, occasional start. That's it.

Well, that is precisely what hey brought him in for, so it should be OK.

 

[JimJohnson]

Well, that is precisely what hey brought him in for, so it should be OK.

Perfect.

 

[CSF77]

Well, that is precisely what hey brought him in for, so it should be OK.

He is a upgrade.

LaStella: Vs L: 23 wRC+ vs R: 95
Descalso: 143 and 107

So not even close.

D wise:

Really neither was great in 2018.

 

[beckdawg]

isnt zobrist in the final year of a 4 yr 40 million?---so they would only save 10 mil?

No. His deal was 4 year $56 mil or $14 mil AAV

 

[CSF77]

That's a ton of money.

This is where I have to stop the train.

Harper yielded 3.5 fWAR in 2018. Zobrist 3.5 fWAR.

So they both were equal value as players.

Zobrist is owed 12M in 2019. Basically he can block 8 clubs this year in a trade. But you are getting 28M value for 12M. So sure he has great trade weight right now. But that weight is also good for the Cubs because it is positive value.

Harper is a wash in fWAR to cash most likely. Even then saving 12M is not going to equal what you need to get Harper. They are at 226M. Shedding Zo drops it to 214M adding Harper adds 30M (min) 244M so 2M under the 246M And you still need a pen arm and a back up catcher....I really don't see this being a legit solution.

That is why I posted earlier to say f-it if they decide to tender Harper.

Your line up would be:
Rizzo 1B
Bryant 3B
Harper RF
Baez SS
Schwarber LF
Zobrist 2B
Contreras C
Heyward CF

Then you would use Chatwood/Almora/Happ/Caratani etc as trade goods to round out the team. The goal would be to shed in 2020 so pushing a Chatwood for Martin makes sense as it removes Chatwoods 12,667,000 2020 commitment.

 

[CSF77]

No. His deal was 4 year $56 mil or $14 mil AAV

He is listed as 12,500,000 real cash. But the tax hit is 14M

 

[CSF77]

But this is the 2020:
Lester: 25.833M
Heyward: 23M
Darvish: 21M
Chatwood: 12.667 (could go to 0 with a Martin trade)
Rizzo has a opt 14.5M
Quintana: 10.5M opt
Morrow: 12M vesting
Descalso: 2.5M

Everything else is arb cases.

 

[beckdawg]

But I don't feel like this Cubs team is built for a playoff run (2016 aside).

Not trying to be snarky here but what would make them built for a playoff run? I think they could have a slightly better bullpen and there offense still has some flaws but that's kind of nitpicky. There's enough talent to get to and win a world series.

So my issue with you here is you've got a shit ton of "ifs." And then what frustrates me Beck is that you list all the things that could go well but don't list all the things that could go wrong.

Will Contreras bounce back or will he have another bad year?
Will Baez continue at his MVP rate or will he drop off? I'd bet on a drop off. People are chalking up Yelich to have a big drop off so there is no reason to assume Baez won't as well.
Lester is going to be 35 years old before the next season starts. He had a great 2018 but at some point there is going to be some drop off.
Cubs still haven't figured out their infield situation with Addison.
Cubs bullpen isn't great. Morrow is uncertain. Cubs haven't addressed this.

Contreras had a bad season last year. Cubs won 95 games. Baez almost certainly will be worse but whatever he loses should be easily replaced by whatever you get back out of Bryant/Rizzo. Lester doesn't have to carry the rotation. Clearly you're not in on Darvish but that is the role they signed him for. Regardless, Lester doesn't have to be great he just has to be good. Infield situation isn't really a big deal because for the moment they have Baez and Zobrist. I wouldn't say those are "ifs" going into the season. You'd be fairly safe assuming you'll get at least solid play out of both. Happ playing more 2B and having a better year could also factor in.

Cubs bullpen is far better than people realize. They had a 3.55 ERA which was 2nd only to Houston last year. They threw 588.1 innings last year. All but Chavez(39), Wilson(54.2), Farrell(25.1), and De La Rosa(21.0) of the guys who threw over 20 innings are back. With the exception of perhaps Chavez are you really sad seeing any of those 4 leave? And additionally, when they acquired De La Rosa and Chavez did you have any idea they would put up a 1.15 and 1.29 ERA respectively?

I'm really unconcerned about the pitching of this team. I mean yeah I'd like to see them add another quality lefty reliever behind monty and maybe one other guy in the bullpen but you never know. I mean everyone thought Wilson was a great pick up for the cubs. There's countless other examples of quality relievers who sucked the following season. What's more important to me is the fact that the cubs staring pitchers are going to eat innings. Since 2013 Lester is 4th in baseball with 1203.0 IP. Q is 6th with 1177.2. Hamels is 7th with 1176.1. Hendricks didn't debut until 2014 but since 2014 he's 24th with 789.0. Darvish is certainly a question but the guy can pitch. And even if he isn't healthy we know Monty can too. So sure there's a marginal amount of risk there but not much.

Where I'm a bit concerned is with the offense. Contreras doesn't concern me. He hit .279/.369/.449(123 wRC+) in the first half which basically is his 2017 line of .276/.356/.499(122 wRC+). He only fell off in August and September. But that was like every single cub player and like I said I think that almost certainly was wear and tear because of that ridiculous stretch of games they played. In all of Sept they had 1 day off. From August 14th the end of the season they had 2. That's 2 days off in 46 games and 2 days they still had to go to the park and wait for a postpone. From the start of the season to right before that stretch the cubs hit .265/.343/.420(105 wRC+) which was tied for 6th best in all of baseball and first in the NL. During that stretch they hit .242/.306/.385(85 wRC+). So, I really think if we're discussing the cubs you throw the last 46 games out because clearly that is abnormal circumstances.

And if you're doing that the numbers look like this among players min 100 PAs
Baez - .292/.325/.572(133 wRC+)
Zobrist - .309/.393/.463(133)
Bryant - .276/.380/.474(130)
Schwarber - .243/.360/.462(116)
Contreras - .271/.359/.431(115)
Rizzo - .262/.360/.436(114)
Happ - .242/.366/.418(111)
Heyward - .277/.343/.402(103)
Almora - .297/.335/.403(99)
Russell - .265/.334/.366(91)
La Stella - .275/.349/.313(87)
Caratini - .252/.315/.304(72)

That is a ridiculously stacked offense albeit one that sorta lacked a super top end bat. With the exception of La Stella and Caratini all of those guys hit well. I even include Russell in that because .265/334 is a really good avg/obp with his defense. He just had no power last year for whatever reason. If you compare that with Boston they had Betts(185 wRC+), Martinez(170), Pearce(143), Bogaerts(133), Benintendi(122), Holt(109) and Moreland(100) and no one else over 90. The difference there being Betts and Martinez were astronomical bats last year where as the cubs didn't quite have a top end like that from Rizzo/Bryant like you'd hope. But if you look at how deep that were with quality hitting i mean even Heyward and Almora at 103/99 wRC+ you'll HAPPILY take with what they give you defensively.

If we're talking strictly about the playoffs are there places I'd want to change? I mean sure I'd love to have 2 Kershaw type starters as opposed to Lester/Hendricks types who are more great #2's or low end #1 types. But those type of pitchers are incredibly hard to find. And while you may not agree, I personally think when Darvish is healthy he is one. Go back and watch how he carved up the cubs in the 2017 NLCS. If Morrow isn't healthy there's certainly some questions about the back end of the bullpen but realistically speaking bullpens get hurt all the time. That's why teams always are trading for relievers in july. So, while I would agree Morrow isn't my ideal closer, when he's healthy he was great. Strop is also great. And at that point you're talking about needing to get 1-2 innings out of the rest of the bullpen in most playoff games.

In terms of playoff offense, if the team I listed above is what the cubs hitters are... I think I'd rather have that offense than an offense that has a more stars and scrubs approach. 10 of those 12 hitters could give you something as opposed to hoping one or two guys carries you. And of course that's assuming they don't add Harper. You can call that hoping for "ifs" but is it really? I mean they proved they can hit over a large sample. It's just a matter of going out and doing it. If there's a disappointment for me it's less with the "if" type players and more on Rizzo and Bryant. Those 2 guys have years like they should then 2018 the cubs almost certainly win the central and have home field. They were 11-9 vs MIL with +4 run diff. They were 4-3 vs LAD with a +12 run diff. You give the cubs home field in a 5/7 game series I'll take it vs either of those teams in the NL and had Bryant/Rizzo been a typical year Bryant/Rizzo they are the favorites.

Cubs haven't lost anything of real note vs that team. MIL and LA thus far haven't added anything to make them substantially better. If LA gets Harper and Kluber then maybe you reevaluate though rumors seem to show them more interested in realmuto/Kluber than Harper. As for MIL i just don't see them being any better and given they had so many guys on career years they almost certainly will be worse.

 

[JimJohnson]

Beck I'll say one thing. I appreciate your optimism.

 

[beckdawg]

Beck I'll say one thing. I appreciate your optimism.

Call it optimism if you will. I call it data. Top teams in terms of current projected WAR on fangarphs
Boston - 50.8
Yanks - 49.9
Houston - 49.4
Dodgers - 48.9
Nationals - 45.7
Indians - 45.4
Cubs - 44.1

Break down on that is as follows
Kris Bryant 5.7 WAR(+3.4 vs 2018)
Anthony Rizzo 4.4(+1.6)
Javier Baez 3.4(-1.9)
Kyle Schwarber 3.2(same)
Willson Contreras 2.8(+0.2)
Jason Heyward 2.3(+0.3)
Addison Russell 1.8(+0.4)
Ben Zobrist 1.6(-2.0)
Ian Happ 1.5(same)
Albert Almora Jr. 1.3(+0.2)
Victor Caratini 0.8(+0.8)
Daniel Descalso 0.5(-1.1)
David Bote 0.3(-0.7)

Jose Quintana 2.6(+1.2)
Kyle Hendricks 2.6(-0.6)
Yu Darvish 2.6(+1.4)
Cole Hamels 2.4(+0.4 though last season with the cubs Hamels put up 1.5 WAR in 12 starts vs 0.5 in 20 with TEX)
Jon Lester 2.0(+0.3)
Brandon Morrow 0.9(+0.3)
Pedro Strop 0.6(-0.2)
Carl Edwards Jr. 0.4(-0.7)
Mike Montgomery 0.3(-1.1)
Steve Cishek 0.1(-0.7)

Anything under half a win I wouldn't sweat much as it's mostly expecting the same as last year. They have Zobrist/Baez losing 3.9. That seems a bit rough for me to be honest. Also think Contreras' projection might be a little light though it appears they are giving Caratini more projected playing time than I think he would get if this is how the roster were to shape out. They have Contreras at 480 PAs vs the 544 he got in 2018. So some what conservatively I think you could add a win or two to the hitters just solely on their regression estimate for Zobrist/Baez. While I think it's likely both are worse, Zobrist alone going from 3.6 to 1.6 is expecting a massive regression for a guy who's put up a 4 win 2016 and a 3.6 win 2018. Sure there was a 0.4 win 2017 sammiched between those two years but he was also dealing with a wrist injury in 2017.

Q's last 4 years have gone 4.7 fWAR, 4.6, 3.9 and 1.4. So 2.6 would be a little conservative but it's probably fair. Hendricks' 2.6 seems very conservative to me. his last 4 years are 3.4, 4.5, 2.4(missed 7 starts), 3.2. Darvish obviously comes down to health but in every other season besides 2018 he has thrown at least 17 games and put up at least 2.8 WAR with a range of 2.8-4.6. So, again 2.6 seems conservative. Hamels last 4 years are 4.2, 3.2, 1.6(missed 8 starts) and 2. His 2.4 is probably a pretty fair projection though it's worth mentioning that pitching in Texas did him no favors. It's the second best hitting park in the majors behind coors. As for Lester, to me that seems very conservative. I think he can easily be a 3 win pitcher. He was a 2.7 win pitcher with a 4.33/4.10 ERA/FIP in 2017 but last year because of his FIP he was only a 1.7 fWAR player with a 3.32/4.39 ERA/FIP.

The bullpen is gonna be a crap shoot like it is for every team every year with projections. I only included it to show that it's not like that is particularly optimistic. Point here being, I think you can easily make the case that the cubs offense is 1-2 wins better than what they are projecting and like wise I think there starters are potentially 2-3 wins better than projections. That's roughly 5 wins which would put them in the 49 WAR range. I don't think that is overly optimistic either. I suppose you could argue it's optimistic in terms of no injuries. But the team in 2018 dealt with a bunch and still won 95 games. A replacement level team is something like 45-50 wins so even with this very conservative projection the cubs would be in the 89-94 win range. So, when I say a healthy Bryant and Darvish probably makes this a 100 win team I don't think I'm exaggerating.

Like I said you want to argue there's some NL teams slightly better than the cubs I'll disagree with you but it's not enough for me to really quibble over. But there's not a significant gap in the way there is between the cubs and say Boston or Houston. The gap between LA and the cubs in this projection is almost entirely based on starting pitching. They have batters at 29.5 for the cubs vs 29.4 for LA. The pitching is 14.7(12.5/2.1 SP/RP) for cubs vs 19.5(16.1/3.4) for LA. It's tough for me to say LA's staff is *that* much better. That's essentially suggesting every starter LA has is a full win better than their cubs counter part. Hill Ryu and Maeda don't really strike me as being better than whichever group of 3-5 you put the cubs having. Kershaw is great but hasn't really stayed healthy. He hasn't made more than 175 innings since 2015. Buehler also looks great but they are projecting 0 loss in performance for a guy who's never thrown 150 innings in a season.

 

[CSF77]

I’m not sold on them as is also. They are fringe WC right now. If they hold the deck due to Theo’s past gaff’s with spending then shit is hitting the fan

 

[DanTown]

If the Cubs get Harper, the guy they have to trade is Schwarber. One, he's a fairly static player as he either plays LF or nothing and while he's improved there, if you believe that your 2-3-4-5 with Harper/Bryant/Rizzo/Baez most of the year, we're now talking about a six hitter who likely gets replaced for a third of the game anyway.

Obviously would like to move off Heyward but if you can't do that, moving Schwarber and getting back a more leadoff friendly option makes a ton of sense.

 

[CSF77]

If the Cubs get Harper, the guy they have to trade is Schwarber. One, he's a fairly static player as he either plays LF or nothing and while he's improved there, if you believe that your 2-3-4-5 with Harper/Bryant/Rizzo/Baez most of the year, we're now talking about a six hitter who likely gets replaced for a third of the game anyway.

Obviously would like to move off Heyward but if you can't do that, moving Schwarber and getting back a more leadoff friendly option makes a ton of sense.

It would be a mistake if they did. Schwarber put up 3.2 fWAR to Harper’s 3.5. In reality Schwarber could put up a 5 season as easily as Harper does in 2019 at a fraction of the cost.

I’ll be honest here Heyward is the worst player on the team. And that is because he is nothing exceptional and being paid to be it. In a perfect world he is traded but the fact that he can not has been the largest disappointment of the off season.

So subtracting positive value for more expensive equal value? Really the only difference is 1 MVP quality season by Harper. Nothing tells me that Kyle is not on par right now.

 

[CSF77]

Even then. Kyle is est at 3.2 fWAR. Let’s be real for a second, that is 21-22AAV on the open market. That is based off what he has done. His value is excellent to what he is expected to earn with out the break out season.

He is off limits and it is justifiable

 

[anotheridiot]

If the Cubs get Harper, the guy they have to trade is Schwarber. One, he's a fairly static player as he either plays LF or nothing and while he's improved there, if you believe that your 2-3-4-5 with Harper/Bryant/Rizzo/Baez most of the year, we're now talking about a six hitter who likely gets replaced for a third of the game anyway.

Obviously would like to move off Heyward but if you can't do that, moving Schwarber and getting back a more leadoff friendly option makes a ton of sense.

Thats the point, a 6 hitter that was replaced for a third of the game for a team that could not score runs late.

The fans say Schwarber cant catch. The fans say he cant play left field. The stats do not confirm either. Now another year behind him of the knee problems, better shape, why cant he catch? You prefer Caratini as a backup? Give Kyle Yu, or Hamels, or both.

As far as your lineup, you have Baez in the wrong spot, he needs to lead off. Everyone wants to look to other teams to find a leadoff hitter and we have one here. For some reason, all star games, world baseball games, Javy leads off. Just not here. The excuse of him not being an every day player is gone and I highly doubt he needs protection from anyone but himself.

This is all I am reading, give up the guys making a million or less, Schwarber, Happ, Bote, and get us a 10 million dollar leadoff hitter.

Where is the sense?

 

[DanTown]

The absolute dumbest thing that has ever happened is people believing that the "cost" of WAR is $8 million dollars. It's a hysterically stupid way to measure value and when you think about it, it makes no sense. If 1 WAR = $8 million dollars, then it would cost $320 million to get 40 WAR and be a 85 win team. Due to rookie contracts, trying to measure the value of FA and their WAR is a fruitless exercise.

The issue with Harper or any FA is opportunity cost, not actual cost. There is no problem with the Cubs paying Jason Heyward what they're paying him. It's not as if the Cubs literally don't have money. What the Cubs DON'T have is an ability to pay someone else because they're paying Heyward. Now, you sign Harper and you pair that with Heyward and that's it, you're not getting close to large dollar deals. Looking at the landscape of the organization, here is when guys on the roster will be FA

2021 - Hendricks
2022 - Bryant, Baez, Scwharber, Rizzo
2023 - Almora, Edwards, Contreras

Unless you believe that you're resigning Schwarber in 2022 to a long-term deal (which would seem unlikely anyway due to cost + age risks), trading him after you acquire Harper makes a lot of sense.

If you think Harper is going to be the 3-4 WAR player he's been these past few years then there's no need to have any discussion. I tend to think that there is more value in that player and that considering his unique age in FA and his hopeful potential to replace Rizzo at 1B, that he makes a ton of sense. I wouldn't kick Machado out either for most of the same reasons but he has the added risk/cost of most likely moving Bryant to 3B or Javy to 2B.

 

[CSF77]

The absolute dumbest thing that has ever happened is people believing that the "cost" of WAR is $8 million dollars. It's a hysterically stupid way to measure value and when you think about it, it makes no sense. If 1 WAR = $8 million dollars, then it would cost $320 million to get 40 WAR and be a 85 win team. Due to rookie contracts, trying to measure the value of FA and their WAR is a fruitless exercise.

The issue with Harper or any FA is opportunity cost, not actual cost. There is no problem with the Cubs paying Jason Heyward what they're paying him. It's not as if the Cubs literally don't have money. What the Cubs DON'T have is an ability to pay someone else because they're paying Heyward. Now, you sign Harper and you pair that with Heyward and that's it, you're not getting close to large dollar deals. Looking at the landscape of the organization, here is when guys on the roster will be FA

2021 - Hendricks
2022 - Bryant, Baez, Scwharber, Rizzo
2023 - Almora, Edwards, Contreras

Unless you believe that you're resigning Schwarber in 2022 to a long-term deal (which would seem unlikely anyway due to cost + age risks), trading him after you acquire Harper makes a lot of sense.

If you think Harper is going to be the 3-4 WAR player he's been these past few years then there's no need to have any discussion. I tend to think that there is more value in that player and that considering his unique age in FA and his hopeful potential to replace Rizzo at 1B, that he makes a ton of sense. I wouldn't kick Machado out either for most of the same reasons but he has the added risk/cost of most likely moving Bryant to 3B or Javy to 2B.

Sell that to ownership.

The reality is based off of the market. 1 WAR is valued at 8 million. So a major league avg player is at 2 WAR. That is 16 M right now.

So until the market starts to devalue players it is what it is.

To be honest, the only player worth 34M per is Trout but he is posting 7 WAR or more every year. Is Harper worth that? No. There has been no proof that he has been able to sustain that level of play. Bryant has been close up til injury showed it’s ugly face.

End of the day Schwarber gave plus D in left field. Who gives a flying **** if it is static. That shit is stupid. What matters is WAR. What matters is he was 15% better than a avg baseball player as a hitter. And he is underpaid for it.

Anything else seeps of bias