Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[CSF77]

A "gaffe" is not a move that didn't work out. a "gaffe" is a move you should be embarrassed about.

You think acquiring Chapman and winning the World Series qualifies as a move you should be embarrassed about?
You think acquiring a terrific defensive outfielder and having a terrific defensive team that won the world series is a move you should be embarrassed about?
Adding an innings eating 5th starter when the team was clearly not yet competitive?
Picking up a starter who was among the top 20 in baseball in ERA over the previous few years while trading from a glut of outfielders?
Taking a chance on Chatwood as a #5 didn't work out. But it is the type of move every team has to make, and is far from a "gaffe".

Are you suggesting that firing Chili Davis was a gaffe?
Are you suggesting they should have forced the pitching coach to stay?

GM's make a lot of moves. Clearly not all work out as well as possible.

But you honestly imply that trading Castro was a gaffe? The team got significantly better the minute he left, and won a WS. Is it a gaffe because they acquired, and then got rid of, the great Adam Warren?

You literally are criticizing the man who built a world series winner for making the moves that out the team over the top. Chapman signing back with the Yankees doesn't make acquiring him - and winning a World Series! - a gaffe. (Would it have been OK of Chapman signed with Minnesota instead? )

The Lemahieu trade is the only bad move on the list and we have had a glut of middle infielders ever since. We are hardly hurting there.

Failing to sign Anabal Sanchez then giving a reaction signing on E-Jax was a gaff. It went against the pattern of signing 1 year deals to flip for talent. It was knucklehead

It happened again. Right after they missed On Ohtani they ink Chatwood. Again another reaction signing. Turned out about the same.

Theo has done far better with planned out signings. Those 2 came from the wrong mindset.

 

[CSF77]

But the Core problem has been the fact that that have not self developed 1 starting pitcher after 7 years. Signing Smyly as insurance to Chatwood. Signing the latest one for after Hamels goes. There is no internal answer so they continue the same old trends.

But they keep drafting pitchers. It is baffling honestly on why?

 

[anotheridiot]

But the Core problem has been the fact that that have not self developed 1 starting pitcher after 7 years. Signing Smyly as insurance to Chatwood. Signing the latest one for after Hamels goes. There is no internal answer so they continue the same old trends.

But they keep drafting pitchers. It is baffling honestly on why?

All I can think of is value, and thats a stretch. It always happens. Look who we gave up to get Garza. Lucked into Hendricks, CJ Edwards was a starter in training (which is why I fear any pitcher for this organization starting as a reliever), then they panic into getting a controlled starter in Q by giving up the next possible developed guy, basically as a throw in with Eloy. All because you had to give up a little more to strike a deal with the cross town team. Sorry, but watching Eloy highlights should have been enough.

So getting to Heyward, not only did you have Soler, who was one who raked in the playoffs, you sign Eloy as the best prospect internationally in August of 2013. So even if Soler blew, you had Eloy ready to eventually take that spot, Zobrist and Bryant. Instead you get Heyward and Soler is pushed to left field. Thats about the same dump in confidence that Jake suffered because he was not signed.

I cant blame Jake. He wanted some back pay in his deal and most think he deserved some. But eventually you get to be the team that you are simply property and there is always something better. Without Heyward, the cubs probably still would have won the world series, for about 142 million in payroll.

 

[CSF77]

All I can think of is value, and thats a stretch. It always happens. Look who we gave up to get Garza. Lucked into Hendricks, CJ Edwards was a starter in training (which is why I fear any pitcher for this organization starting as a reliever), then they panic into getting a controlled starter in Q by giving up the next possible developed guy, basically as a throw in with Eloy. All because you had to give up a little more to strike a deal with the cross town team. Sorry, but watching Eloy highlights should have been enough.

So getting to Heyward, not only did you have Soler, who was one who raked in the playoffs, you sign Eloy as the best prospect internationally in August of 2013. So even if Soler blew, you had Eloy ready to eventually take that spot, Zobrist and Bryant. Instead you get Heyward and Soler is pushed to left field. Thats about the same dump in confidence that Jake suffered because he was not signed.

I cant blame Jake. He wanted some back pay in his deal and most think he deserved some. But eventually you get to be the team that you are simply property and there is always something better. Without Heyward, the cubs probably still would have won the world series, for about 142 million in payroll.

I would have aimed higher for 2 top 100 prospects. They lacked a legit ace and went for a #4. At that time the market was wack and they should have sat on it.

 

[beckdawg]

All I can think of is value, and thats a stretch. It always happens. Look who we gave up to get Garza. Lucked into Hendricks, CJ Edwards was a starter in training (which is why I fear any pitcher for this organization starting as a reliever), then they panic into getting a controlled starter in Q by giving up the next possible developed guy, basically as a throw in with Eloy. All because you had to give up a little more to strike a deal with the cross town team. Sorry, but watching Eloy highlights should have been enough.

So getting to Heyward, not only did you have Soler, who was one who raked in the playoffs, you sign Eloy as the best prospect internationally in August of 2013. So even if Soler blew, you had Eloy ready to eventually take that spot, Zobrist and Bryant. Instead you get Heyward and Soler is pushed to left field. Thats about the same dump in confidence that Jake suffered because he was not signed.

I cant blame Jake. He wanted some back pay in his deal and most think he deserved some. But eventually you get to be the team that you are simply property and there is always something better. Without Heyward, the cubs probably still would have won the world series, for about 142 million in payroll.

Neither Soler nor Eloy is a RFer. You put them in an outfield with Schwarber and your ERA would get murdered.

 

[CSF77]

Regardless what matters is now. As a CF you could argue that you can accept Heyward more. He is a 2 fWAR 100 wRC+ guy. So middle of the road. I would guess his value right now is 5/75M. Say they do nothing (gasp) Zobrist goes F/A. Frees up 14M cap. They make Nico the starting 2B and Baez the starting SS. Then they take the rebound value of Russell for trade or if he subs axe.

OF wise the market looks like crap. No better way to spill it so Heyward might end up a plus chip then. If Almora is a every day then push that direction. He would be one of the top OF on the market then.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2020/

 

[CSF77]

Neither Soler nor Eloy is a RFer. You put them in an outfield with Schwarber and your ERA would get murdered.

We don’t know that. Sammy Sosa butchered RF for a decade and the park didn’t implode. I think we are spoiled now.

To be honest here 100% I wouldn’t mind seeing Schwarber try some RF action next year. He has the arm for it and has vastly improved. You could say that his over all value would rise then. Not to mention wrigg is a smaller park. The sun is the main issue going on.

 

[beckdawg]

We don’t know that. Sammy Sosa butchered RF for a decade and the park didn’t implode. I think we are spoiled now.

To be honest here 100% I wouldn’t mind seeing Schwarber try some RF action next year. He has the arm for it and has vastly improved. You could say that his over all value would rise then. Not to mention wrigg is a smaller park. The sun is the main issue going on.

Actually we do know that. In a little over a season Soler has cost the teams he played RF for -16 runs based on DRS. To put that into perspective, the cubs as a whole team over the entire year gave up 645 runs last year. In other words, 2.5% of the total runs the cubs gave up would essentially be equal to what Soler would cost you vs an average RF.

If you wanna see what that kind of OF looks like look at Philly. Rhys Hoskins was -24 DRS in left and Nick Williams was -15 in RF. Philly had a 4.15 team ERA despite having Aaron Nola who had a 2.37 ERA. Their team FIP was 3.83 so those two corners cost their team ERA close to a half a run and that probably cost them the NL east.

 

[anotheridiot]

Regardless what matters is now. As a CF you could argue that you can accept Heyward more. He is a 2 fWAR 100 wRC+ guy. So middle of the road. I would guess his value right now is 5/75M. Say they do nothing (gasp) Zobrist goes F/A. Frees up 14M cap. They make Nico the starting 2B and Baez the starting SS. Then they take the rebound value of Russell for trade or if he subs axe.

OF wise the market looks like crap. No better way to spill it so Heyward might end up a plus chip then. If Almora is a every day then push that direction. He would be one of the top OF on the market then.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2020/

The difference is, Bryant prefers center field because he prefers the ball hit right at him, there is less slice on opposite field batted balls, Heyward just never looks comfortable in center field. You can argue as much as you want, but Heywards value is defensive right field. You are not getting better in right field because Heyward is in center. I remember the cubs going thru spring training with Heyward in center and end up bringing back Fowler. They had a 3 year younger Zobrist to play out there at that time and he was exclusive to 2B.

To me it was seen pretty early that Theo does not like Heyward in center. You have one of the best in the league in Almora out in center, but you bench the "weak" bat for Heyward when you have the same defensive argument that still benches Almora.

Yes, sosa got thru it and we have had some terrible ones out there since. You also had Andre Dawson who was lights out better arm than any of them. I would rather see Schwarber catching that going out to right field in Wrigley when the sun is out.

 

[anotheridiot]

Actually we do know that. In a little over a season Soler has cost the teams he played RF for -16 runs based on DRS. To put that into perspective, the cubs as a whole team over the entire year gave up 645 runs last year. In other words, 2.5% of the total runs the cubs gave up would essentially be equal to what Soler would cost you vs an average RF.

If you wanna see what that kind of OF looks like look at Philly. Rhys Hoskins was -24 DRS in left and Nick Williams was -15 in RF. Philly had a 4.15 team ERA despite having Aaron Nola who had a 2.37 ERA. Their team FIP was 3.83 so those two corners cost their team ERA close to a half a run and that probably cost them the NL east.

So all the guy has to do is drive in 16 runs in a season to be even? You gotta admit, some of these pencil pouch guys are ruining common sense. 10 outfield assists with his cannon and its 6 or would it be 26 without his assists?

 

[beckdawg]

So all the guy has to do is drive in 16 runs in a season to be even? You gotta admit, some of these pencil pouch guys are ruining common sense. 10 outfield assists with his cannon and its 6 or would it be 26 without his assists?

No... that's not how that works at all. I could explain in greater detail but the fact you're calling analytics "pencil pushers" leads me to believe you wont listen. Suffice to say 16 runs is 1.6 WAR. 2 wins is roughly what an average starter accumulates. In other words, for soler to be an average player he has to hit roughly twice as well as an average hitter.

 

[beckdawg]

Let me put it this way. You want to see the difference good defense makes? Cubs fielding independent pitching last year was 4.14. Their actual ERA was 3.65. That's the biggest difference in the majors. 3.65 was the third best ERA in baseball behind houston 3.11 and LA 3.40. If you hypothetically had a totally average defense that 4.14 FIP would move the cubs from third to 17th. It's a lot cheaper saving runs this way than trying to buy the god tier pitching you need to be a top 5 ERA.

 

[CSF77]

Actually we do know that. In a little over a season Soler has cost the teams he played RF for -16 runs based on DRS. To put that into perspective, the cubs as a whole team over the entire year gave up 645 runs last year. In other words, 2.5% of the total runs the cubs gave up would essentially be equal to what Soler would cost you vs an average RF.

If you wanna see what that kind of OF looks like look at Philly. Rhys Hoskins was -24 DRS in left and Nick Williams was -15 in RF. Philly had a 4.15 team ERA despite having Aaron Nola who had a 2.37 ERA. Their team FIP was 3.83 so those two corners cost their team ERA close to a half a run and that probably cost them the NL east.

They had the worst D in baseball. It went beyond the corners.
Anyways it is not about Soler per say. It was more about sticking to your guns. If Soler crapped out that is fine. End of the day they had Zo moving around and ended up in LF anyways that year.

Regardless it is more about now than then.

 

[anotheridiot]

Let me put it this way. You want to see the difference good defense makes? Cubs fielding independent pitching last year was 4.14. Their actual ERA was 3.65. That's the biggest difference in the majors. 3.65 was the third best ERA in baseball behind houston 3.11 and LA 3.40. If you hypothetically had a totally average defense that 4.14 FIP would move the cubs from third to 17th. It's a lot cheaper saving runs this way than trying to buy the god tier pitching you need to be a top 5 ERA.

and the most important defense is up the middle, C, SS, 2B, CF. Why do you want a weaker defender in center field, just justified by his paycheck, and not playing him in his best position. Sorry, but I am not interested in watching a 22 million dollar player being unfomfortable in a position he does not play very well when Almora is natural out there.

 

[TL1961]

That statement could be said about Zo also and it didn’t stop them. Zo missed significant time and it has looked like a good signing. Saying player A is bad and player B is good when at the time both appear equal is bias. Fowler could bounce back and it improves his outlook.

Heyward was paid to post 3-4 fWAR per and has finally posted a league avg season. That deal is a shit one. He has played at Zobrist’s contract value while Zo has played at his.

Soler has been a injury case. I did say sign a corner OF. Right now it would be Almora in CF, Zo in RF Happ adding depth. No 23M per year contract to move to add Harper.

And to be honest Heyward did not add to 2016 except his rain speech. That is it. His utter tank job that year was an embarrassment

You, and others, look at offensive stats exclusively. If a player drives in more runs than Heyward and allows more runs than Heyward, you don't see an offset. You see what you deem a "better player" due to the offense. It doesn't work like that.

The Cubs are a terrific example of what happens when you play better defenders, yet fans who watch them daily don't see it.

Beckdawg pointed out the DRS stats and the fact we had the 3rd best ERA instead of 17th, due to our defenders. Yet many fans simply can't see that the D has an effect. The Castro debate all over again. People liked Castro getting lots of singles, and will whine about Russell's BA, but the NET effect of these two when considering offense and defense favors Russell easily. But he gets criticized and you criticize Theo for trading Castro away when it was an absolutely necessary move.

Fowler is poor defender. No way you could afford to have him in the lineup in 2016 without having Heyward in the OF. And no way do you tie your future to him while holding others back. Almora is a terrific defensive CF, but you blast Theo for not keeping Fowler. That is just wrong.

You are arguing that we should have kept Soler and Fowler, and are calling these moves gaffes. Nobody in baseball would agree with that. We had a lot of options on the OF, so dealing an OF made sense. Soler for a closer who was terrific for us. Not a gaffe.

Cardinal fans are livid over Fowler getting playing time, and some Cub fans want to keep him for sentimental reasons. Theo did exactly what he should have done.

 

[Omeletpants]

Soler? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO

 

[CSF77]

Soler? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO

He would have kept a wreck but at least you wouldn’t have had the train wreck Hewyard has been.

2016 they chose to resign Fowler for 15M per. I think that he would have taken that. Then they would have still lost Schwarber in the collision. Soler would have been the RF. Depth wise they would have had to move Baez to 2B and Zo to LF. Really no change there. They still ran out Kalish and Coghlan. Later Contreras. Contreras might have stuck in the OF and the Montenero implosion doesn’t happen. That is a maybe. Fowler still could have been moved to RF with Almora but filling the lead off at a cheaper cost. Soler still could have been flipped. I don’t see why not.

What it comes down to is they spend a mega on a 15M AAV quality player. GOOD D or not. Shit is over rated.

 

[Omeletpants]

Soler had to go regardless of who they picked up. The guy is washed up at 24

 

[CSF77]

Soler had to go regardless of who they picked up. The guy is washed up at 24

He had a little perk but ya total disappointment.

Regardless I would rather talk 2019 vs twilight zone crap

 

[CSF77]

But a idea I’ve thought was Schwarber in LF 85% and Bote 15%. Bote rakes lefties Happ is far better vs RHP.

So under Russell’s suspension it should be Zo at 2B, Happ in CF vs RHSP Almora vs LHSP. Strait platoon. Heyward RF. Basically keep it simple.

When Russell returns then they have to make a desision. Sometimes regular rest and performance dictates.

I would view it as Zo is leaving anyways. Heyward I want to build trade value. Russell I want to build trade value. Happ I want to see if he is in my plans or not.

So that is how I would gear the season. They win it all then great.