Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[Omeletpants]

He had a little perk but ya total disappointment.

Regardless I would rather talk 2019 vs twilight zone crap

I didnt bring up the name Solar

 

[CSF77]

I didnt bring up the name Solar

I was inreguard to 2015-2016 off season.

1. They let Fowler go due to age but signed a older Zobrist.
2. They signed Heyward to play CF. Not RF. Fowler didn’t sign until spring training started.

The plan was Schwarber/Heyward/Soler going into the season. Fowler signing a 1 year fell into their laps.

Regardless old history. All I was saying is that they could have save a bunch going FowlerCO

 

[Castor76]

I'm a fairly old school guy when it comes to stats as I don't need a slide rule or log table to understand them. So something like DRS is above the level of my delving to understand exactly how it's determined. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if a player were to be -10 DRS, then to balance that to neutral he would have to be something like a +110 Runs Created. Is that right?

 

[CSF77]

I'm a fairly old school guy when it comes to stats as I don't need a slide rule or log table to understand them. So something like DRS is above the level of my delving to understand exactly how it's determined. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if a player were to be -10 DRS, then to balance that to neutral he would have to be something like a +110 Runs Created. Is that right?

Fielding metrics are clunky. UZR 150 is a safe gauge. I believe statcast will become the standard there as it takes real data.

 

[Castor76]

Fielding metrics are clunky. UZR 150 is a safe gauge. I believe statcast will become the standard there as it takes real data.

I've looked into the UZR and have a decent grasp on that. What I'm really needing to know is what, if anything would be the offensive counter. Thanks for any help you can give.

 

[CSF77]

I've looked into the UZR and have a decent grasp on that. What I'm really needing to know is what, if anything would be the offensive counter. Thanks for any help you can give.

I’m not sure if I follow. Are you talking as a hitter? If so each site has that. wRC+ on Fansgraph is my preferred. Some like wOBA. Think BP has their hitting metric also.

But in general OBA is the heavyweight. Slug adds or subtracts value. BA holds little to no value. Most sites kinda use this as a guide.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm a fairly old school guy when it comes to stats as I don't need a slide rule or log table to understand them. So something like DRS is above the level of my delving to understand exactly how it's determined. Please correct me if I'm wrong, but if a player were to be -10 DRS, then to balance that to neutral he would have to be something like a +110 Runs Created. Is that right?

It's a bit more complicated than that but kind of... league average for hitters is something like 70 wRC. I don't want to drive too far into that but that's weighted runs created which is the number that is the basis for the wRC+ you'll see me and others throw around. In simplest terms it's taking a weighted version of your on base percentage and multiplying that by a runs per plate appearance factor. The general idea is that RBI's are a bad way to measure how much a person is creating runs because it's entirely dependent on people being on base for you to drive in. Also offense rich environments need to be accounted for so that's why it's weighted.

But to get back to a concrete example here, let's use Contreras. In 544 PAs last year he was a perfectly average 100 wRC+ though in his case it was 66 wRC likely because of the parks the cubs played in. The thought here would be that if Contreras were -10 DRS he'd need 76 wRC+ just to break even. As I said it get complicated comparing players like that but to use a secondary example, Ben Zobrist had 78 wRC but he was a 123 wRC+ over 520 PAs.

The point here being, it's not just as easy as saying bad defenders need to drive in a few more runs. In this example, someone who's roughly -12 DRS would need to be a 23% better hitter just to break even on value. To put that into some context, in all of baseball with min 400 PAs, there were 54 players who had a 123 wRC+ or better. That's why bad defense is really hard to overcome because an average hitter(100 wRC+) with average defense(0 DRS) would effectively be a 123 wRC+ hitter as compared to someone who was -12 DRS.

To get this back to Heyward, the defensive metrics didn't really love him last year as much as they typically do. He was only +6 DRS. But compared to a neutral DRS guy that's still likely 10-12% more value. And if you look at the two years prior to 2018, he was +18 both years. And because I and others have brought it up, Heyward's career DRS in CF over 647.2 innings is +10. A typical season you play like 1000-1200 innings. You can't *really* project things like that but a +20 DRS would be gold glove caliber to put context on how good that is.

 

[Castor76]

It's a bit more complicated than that but kind of... league average for hitters is something like 70 wRC. I don't want to drive too far into that but that's weighted runs created which is the number that is the basis for the wRC+ you'll see me and others throw around. In simplest terms it's taking a weighted version of your on base percentage and multiplying that by a runs per plate appearance factor. The general idea is that RBI's are a bad way to measure how much a person is creating runs because it's entirely dependent on people being on base for you to drive in. Also offense rich environments need to be accounted for so that's why it's weighted.

But to get back to a concrete example here, let's use Contreras. In 544 PAs last year he was a perfectly average 100 wRC+ though in his case it was 66 wRC likely because of the parks the cubs played in. The thought here would be that if Contreras were -10 DRS he'd need 76 wRC+ just to break even. As I said it get complicated comparing players like that but to use a secondary example, Ben Zobrist had 78 wRC but he was a 123 wRC+ over 520 PAs.

The point here being, it's not just as easy as saying bad defenders need to drive in a few more runs. In this example, someone who's roughly -12 DRS would need to be a 23% better hitter just to break even on value. To put that into some context, in all of baseball with min 400 PAs, there were 54 players who had a 123 wRC+ or better. That's why bad defense is really hard to overcome because an average hitter(100 wRC+) with average defense(0 DRS) would effectively be a 123 wRC+ hitter as compared to someone who was -12 DRS.

To get this back to Heyward, the defensive metrics didn't really love him last year as much as they typically do. He was only +6 DRS. But compared to a neutral DRS guy that's still likely 10-12% more value. And if you look at the two years prior to 2018, he was +18 both years. And because I and others have brought it up, Heyward's career DRS in CF over 647.2 innings is +10. A typical season you play like 1000-1200 innings. You can't *really* project things like that but a +20 DRS would be gold glove caliber to put context on how good that is.

So now my question is, how do you know a -12 DRS is 23% less than average?

 

[CSF77]

How do you come up with Runs Saved?

A fielder’s Defensive Runs Saved (Runs Saved, for short) indicates how many runs a player saved or cost his team in the field compared to others at his position. There are eight components we use to total a player’s Runs Saved:
- Plus/Minus Runs Saved (All Non-Catchers)
- Catcher Adjusted Earned Runs Saved (Catchers)
- Catcher Stolen Base Runs Saved (Catchers)
- Pitcher Stolen Base Runs Saved (Pitchers)
- Outfielder Arm Runs Saved (Outfielders)
- Bunt Runs Saved (Corner Infielders, Catchers, Pitchers)
- Double Play Runs Saved (Middle Infielders and Corner Infielders)
- Good Plays/Misplays Runs Saved (All Fielders)

In order to translate each component to Runs Saved, we consulted the “24-States Run Matrix”. We compared the expected number of runs allowed before and after each play and calculated the average change in run expectancy for each event. We then apply these average run values to convert to Runs Saved.

 

[CSF77]

Just a data output.

 

[CSF77]

I think at the end of the story Heyward holds more value in CF because CF holds more value due to spray charts. That is it. I can buy that more because he lacks the power to be on par with other RF in baseball. As a CF his ability to preven while giving neutral valued O holds more value.

It is a logical way of looking at things. Especially with how lefties are shifted to death now.

 

[beckdawg]

So now my question is, how do you know a -12 DRS is 23% less than average?

Not entirely sure what you mean here. I wouldn't take the numbers I used as exact conversion. I was just trying to give you an example of what -12 DRS difference looked like in terms of how much better a hitter you would need to be in order to offset that.

If you're asking how you know what's average in terms of DRS that's easy. 0 is average. I'd have to look it up again to be certain but I also think that's weighted based on position. So, for example, if you're a 0 DRS in CF that doesn't mean you'd be 0 in LF. You'd likely be much much better. If what you're asking here is effectively how good/bad -12 DRS is, as a general rule of thumb 0 is average, +/- 5 is still within a range I'd call some what average. For example, if you're like -3 DRS you're a slightly below average defender. At +/- 10 you're either pretty good or pretty bad. Anything over +15 is generally like gold glove caliber. Generally speaking you don't see people over 20 often.

I should also probably mention UZR here. UZR and DRS are effectively outputting the same thing namely runs saved. They just calculate it slightly differently. The main reason I tend to use it more often is there's UZR/150 which is a projection based on 150 games. DRS is a counting stat which effectively means the more games you play the more it can increase/decrease. UZR is also a counting stat in the same manner but UZR/150 essentially projects that over a full season which is an easier way to identify how well a player is doing. For example, if you see a guy has 5 DRS on a season you might not think he's all that good based on my previous explanation but if that's 5 DRS in say 300 innings that guys is a very good defender. For example, Jarrod Dyson last year played 334 innings in CF he was +7 DRS and 4.5 UZR but if you look at his UZR/150 that's a 16.4 pace which is effectively gold glove caliber.

 

[Castor76]

Not entirely sure what you mean here. I wouldn't take the numbers I used as exact conversion. I was just trying to give you an example of what -12 DRS difference looked like in terms of how much better a hitter you would need to be in order to offset that.

If you're asking how you know what's average in terms of DRS that's easy. 0 is average. I'd have to look it up again to be certain but I also think that's weighted based on position. So, for example, if you're a 0 DRS in CF that doesn't mean you'd be 0 in LF. You'd likely be much much better. If what you're asking here is effectively how good/bad -12 DRS is, as a general rule of thumb 0 is average, +/- 5 is still within a range I'd call some what average. For example, if you're like -3 DRS you're a slightly below average defender. At +/- 10 you're either pretty good or pretty bad. Anything over +15 is generally like gold glove caliber. Generally speaking you don't see people over 20 often.

I should also probably mention UZR here. UZR and DRS are effectively outputting the same thing namely runs saved. They just calculate it slightly differently. The main reason I tend to use it more often is there's UZR/150 which is a projection based on 150 games. DRS is a counting stat which effectively means the more games you play the more it can increase/decrease. UZR is also a counting stat in the same manner but UZR/150 essentially projects that over a full season which is an easier way to identify how well a player is doing. For example, if you see a guy has 5 DRS on a season you might not think he's all that good based on my previous explanation but if that's 5 DRS in say 300 innings that guys is a very good defender. For example, Jarrod Dyson last year played 334 innings in CF he was +7 DRS and 4.5 UZR but if you look at his UZR/150 that's a 16.4 pace which is effectively gold glove caliber.

Thanks for taking the time.

What I mean is, you equated to offset for -12 DRS to wRC+ 123. Why 123 and not 115?

 

[CSF77]

Thanks for taking the time.

What I mean is, you equated to offset for -12 DRS to wRC+ 123. Why 123 and not 115?

Defensive Ability DRS
Gold Glove Caliber +15
Great +10
Above Average +5
Average 0
Below Average -5
Poor -10
Awful -15


Ratings wRC wRC+
Excellent 105 160
Great 90 140
Above Average 75 115
Average 65 100
Below Average 60 80
Poor 50 75
Awful 40 60

 

[beckdawg]

Thanks for taking the time.

What I mean is, you equated to offset for -12 DRS to wRC+ 123. Why 123 and not 115?

Well if you looked at the example I gave, I used Zobrist and Contreras. In it Contreras has 66 weighted runs created compared to Zobrist who had 78 weighted runs created. 78 - 66 = 12. Since DRS is defensive runs saved a -12 DRS is effectively the difference between those two hitters. Contreras' 66 wRC was a 100 wRC+. 100 wRC+ is exactly average. Zobrist's wRC+ was 123 or 23% better than average. That's how I got to 23%. Like I said I wouldn't use that number as a conversion metric. As far as I'm aware there's no direct conversion metric between defensive runs saved and runs created via hitting. I was purely doing it to illustrate that 12 runs is more than people think.

Defensive runs are hard for people to wrap their minds around because you don't really see them in the way you do RBI's. That's why I wanted to give an illustrative example because people like anotheridiot will say things like "all he's gotta do is drive in 12 more runs" or whatever but that ignores the fact that it's 12 runs more than an average player which means you have to be a very good hitter because as I said there were only 54 players in the majors doing that last year.

Simply put, paying for defense is very cost effective in 2 ways. One is teams pay more for HR/RBI than they do for defense in FA. But if you fully invest in defense it has a second benefit in that it makes your pitching cheaper. The cubs team defense cut about half a run off the bullpen's ERA. Bullpen arms in general are terrible value because of their usage rate. A half run in terms of FA relievers is probably $3-4 mil. Closers are always going to get paid well but if you can get by with your other relievers in the $3-6 mil range rather than the $6-9 mil range for a playoff contending team you're saving a ton of money. Just as an example, they gave Cishek $6.5 mil AAV and he produced 0.8 fwar. Colorado paid Wade Davis 3/$52 mil($17.3 mil AAV) for 0.9 fWAR. Philly gave Tommy Hunter 2/$18 mil and he produced 0.7 fWAR.

Point here being, that sort of impact compounds quickly because the cubs run 8 relievers. So if you're saving $3-4 mil on everyone that's $24-32 mil. That also effects starters in a similar manner. Cubs had the 10th best starter ERA in the majors despite Darvish and Chatwood floundering. Their defense is probably the reason a guy like Monty can come in as a starter from the bullpen and be a huge contributor.

 

[CSF77]

Schwarber: DRS: 2 (Avg). wRC+: 115 (above avg)
Almora: DRS: 8 (above avg) wRC+: 89 (Below avg)
Heyward: DRS: 3 (avg) wRC+: 99 (avg)

Depth:
Zobrist (RF): DRS: 2 (avg) wRC+: 123 (above avg)
This one is tricky as DRS hates Happ in CF
Happ: DRS: RF is a 0 LF 1 so both avg. CF -7 (below avg) wRC+ 106 (avg)

So I see the OF as Heyward/Almora and Happ are avg value over all.
Schwarber in LF and Zobrist in RF is the most productive OF.

So that is what it is.

 

[CSF77]

Well if you looked at the example I gave, I used Zobrist and Contreras. In it Contreras has 66 weighted runs created compared to Zobrist who had 78 weighted runs created. 78 - 66 = 12. Since DRS is defensive runs saved a -12 DRS is effectively the difference between those two hitters. Contreras' 66 wRC was a 100 wRC+. 100 wRC+ is exactly average. Zobrist's wRC+ was 123 or 23% better than average. That's how I got to 23%. Like I said I wouldn't use that number as a conversion metric. As far as I'm aware there's no direct conversion metric between defensive runs saved and runs created via hitting. I was purely doing it to illustrate that 12 runs is more than people think.

Defensive runs are hard for people to wrap their minds around because you don't really see them in the way you do RBI's. That's why I wanted to give an illustrative example because people like anotheridiot will say things like "all he's gotta do is drive in 12 more runs" or whatever but that ignores the fact that it's 12 runs more than an average player which means you have to be a very good hitter because as I said there were only 54 players in the majors doing that last year.

Simply put, paying for defense is very cost effective in 2 ways. One is teams pay more for HR/RBI than they do for defense in FA. But if you fully invest in defense it has a second benefit in that it makes your pitching cheaper. The cubs team defense cut about half a run off the bullpen's ERA. Bullpen arms in general are terrible value because of their usage rate. A half run in terms of FA relievers is probably $3-4 mil. Closers are always going to get paid well but if you can get by with your other relievers in the $3-6 mil range rather than the $6-9 mil range for a playoff contending team you're saving a ton of money. Just as an example, they gave Cishek $6.5 mil AAV and he produced 0.8 fwar. Colorado paid Wade Davis 3/$52 mil($17.3 mil AAV) for 0.9 fWAR. Philly gave Tommy Hunter 2/$18 mil and he produced 0.7 fWAR.

Point here being, that sort of impact compounds quickly because the cubs run 8 relievers. So if you're saving $3-4 mil on everyone that's $24-32 mil. That also effects starters in a similar manner. Cubs had the 10th best starter ERA in the majors despite Darvish and Chatwood floundering. Their defense is probably the reason a guy like Monty can come in as a starter from the bullpen and be a huge contributor.

I think if you work in the brackets it kinda simplifies it. But with what they have they should play to the park in general.

 

[Castor76]

Defensive Ability DRS
Gold Glove Caliber +15
Great +10
Above Average +5
Average 0
Below Average -5
Poor -10
Awful -15


Ratings wRC wRC+
Excellent 105 160
Great 90 140
Above Average 75 115
Average 65 100
Below Average 60 80
Poor 50 75
Awful 40 60

That still doesn't answer what offensive number balances out unless you're saying a player in the -5 to -10 DRS but a wRC in the 75 to 90 is balanced.

 

[CSF77]

That still doesn't answer what offensive number balances out unless you're saying a player in the -5 to -10 DRS but a wRC in the 75 to 90 is balanced.

I think that you are digging too deep. I believe that you stick in the brackets given. If you have a avg/avg he is avg. If you have a above avg and a avg he is above avg. if you have a excelent and a poor it makes him above avg.

Getting into the exact data takes exact info.

 

[CSF77]

But with this
Harper: 135 wRC+ above avg (not quite great) RF -16 awful..damn so above avg drops to poor value. -16 was a aberration though. But it pushes the LF argument where he held a 0 in 2014. over all 2018 might be a outlier as he has hovered around avg and CF/RF tanked.

It does give concern though.