Offseason rumors/discussion thread

[anotheridiot]

I think people are looking for the more stereotypical lead off guy....a Kenny Lofton or Maury Wills. I know that's the kind of player that comes to mind when I think leading off. Not a whole lot of those type of guys around anymore....the game has changed. I mean when the Cub's most successful LO guy is Rizzo....

When I think leadoff guy, its a guy that you consider is on second or third when the 2 hitter shows up. A guy that distracts the pitcher and forces mistakes, balks or poor location because he is dancing around on the base pads. The greatest steals over the past few years were all Baez, including stealing home in the world series. So daily, thats get to first and steal second without having to be sacrificed over. It has changed greatly over the years as, get the better hitters more at bats, and a guy that gets on base more than average but is pretty poor driving in runs if he is lower in the lineup. Thats the definition when the prototypical ones are not on the team. Our guys got on base, but watched the 2,3 and 4 hitters more often than not hitting a ground ball to the guy in the shift.

They cannot have the same philosophy as last year of, hit the ball as hard as possible and hope it goes over the wall or off the wall for extra bases. They tried that but end up grounding out to the side that has 4 fielders. People complain that Javy does not take walks, well grounding out to a shift is worse than not taking walks, because you bounce the ball down the line and its a walk single or double. They followed their plan and it did not work. You saw Javy slumped a few times last year and what usually gets him going is a shot to the opposite field. Now, you go to the metrics and you try to figure out how the cubs were near the top of all of baseball with opposite field hits. Does that fact just show that other teams are hitting into the shift more than the cubs do? Because watching, listening, what is remembered is the balls hit 105 mph into the shift.

 

[CSF77]

Any feels on this and moving Heyward to CF? I was thinking 8M AAV for a lead off for 2 years then finding a trade partner for Happ for BP

19. Nick Markakis, OF (original prediction: two years, $16MM): Brantley and Andrew McCutchen are off the board, and Harper and Pollock are unrealistic for most teams. That could work to the advantage of Markakis, the next best free-agent outfielder available, though he’s more of a satisfactory regular than a high-impact one. Markakis was a first-time All-Star in 2018, but the 35-year-old’s offensive production cratered over the season’s last two months, giving him a final batting line that was more decent than exceptional. Still, as a roughly league-average hitter who gets on base, can handle both lefties and righties and hasn’t missed more than seven games in a season since 2012, Markakis could give some team an acceptable stopgap over the next year or two. A return to Atlanta, where he has played since 2015, may be in the offing.

 

[Castor76]

When I think leadoff guy, its a guy that you consider is on second or third when the 2 hitter shows up. A guy that distracts the pitcher and forces mistakes, balks or poor location because he is dancing around on the base pads. The greatest steals over the past few years were all Baez, including stealing home in the world series. So daily, thats get to first and steal second without having to be sacrificed over. It has changed greatly over the years as, get the better hitters more at bats, and a guy that gets on base more than average but is pretty poor driving in runs if he is lower in the lineup. Thats the definition when the prototypical ones are not on the team. Our guys got on base, but watched the 2,3 and 4 hitters more often than not hitting a ground ball to the guy in the shift.

They cannot have the same philosophy as last year of, hit the ball as hard as possible and hope it goes over the wall or off the wall for extra bases. They tried that but end up grounding out to the side that has 4 fielders. People complain that Javy does not take walks, well grounding out to a shift is worse than not taking walks, because you bounce the ball down the line and its a walk single or double. They followed their plan and it did not work. You saw Javy slumped a few times last year and what usually gets him going is a shot to the opposite field. Now, you go to the metrics and you try to figure out how the cubs were near the top of all of baseball with opposite field hits. Does that fact just show that other teams are hitting into the shift more than the cubs do? Because watching, listening, what is remembered is the balls hit 105 mph into the shift.

8 Teams hit into fewer double plays than the Cubs last year. They had just over 1100 ABs with a runner on First only. Only 42 of those resulted in a double play.

The days of Ricky Henderson, greatest lead off hitter of all time, are over.

 

[chibears55]

Leadoff hitters should be guys with high OBP and has good baserunning skills..
Not necessarily fast but can go 1st to 3rd or home

 

[Castor76]

Whats high for OBP and what's good base running? Cubs had 3 of the 51 batting title qualified guys with OBP of .350 or better. Of the players who had at least 100 ABs in the lead off spot, the Cubs had 3 of the 20 players with a .350 OBP or higher. One of those was Almora.

 

[JimJohnson]

Whats high for OBP and what's good base running? Cubs had 3 of the 51 batting title qualified guys with OBP of .350 or better. Of the players who had at least 100 ABs in the lead off spot, the Cubs had 3 of the 20 players with a .350 OBP or higher. One of those was Almora.

Small sample size though, and that's mainly against LHP. He isn't great against RHP.

He really started strong in 2018 and then really fizzled out after June. July-Sep were brutal months for him.

 

[Castor76]

Small sample size though, and that's mainly against LHP. He isn't great against RHP.

He really started strong in 2018 and then really fizzled out after June. July-Sep were brutal months for him.

I recognize that the sample size is small. In the past 3 seasons he has about 900 PAs with about 230 at lead off. His OBP in those is .353. It's probably mostly versus lefties, but it's all we have to look at. He also has about another 300 in 5-7 slots and has an OBP of about .360. So unless all of those just happened to come versus LHP and his crap numbers in the other spots in the line up were versus RHP, you might have a point, but he only had 285 ABs versus LHP so at least half of that had to come versus RHP.

And last season was over 200 PA with an OBP of about .370. And he only had just over 140 PAs versus lefties with an OBP of .340. So he was effective when batting lead off.

 

[JimJohnson]

I recognize that the sample size is small. In the past 3 seasons he has about 900 PAs with about 230 at lead off. His OBP in those is .353. It's probably mostly versus lefties, but it's all we have to look at. He also has about another 300 in 5-7 slots and has an OBP of about .360. So unless all of those just happened to come versus LHP and his crap numbers in the other spots in the line up were versus RHP, you might have a point, but he only had 285 ABs versus LHP so at least half of that had to come versus RHP.

And last season was over 200 PA with an OBP of about .370. And he only had just over 140 PAs versus lefties with an OBP of .340. So he was effective when batting lead off.

I understand your point but you can't really just look at his stats at leadoff in a bubble. He isn't magically better when he bats #1 vs. when he bats at other spots, which goes back to my point of super small sample size.

And something that needs to be figured out is why he started off so strong April-June and then collapsed July-Sep. It wasn't like it was his rookie year where he had some beginners luck and then needed to go through an adjustment period. So I'm not really sure what happened to him.

 

[CSF77]

https://tomahawktake.com/2018/12/24...e-a-familiar-trade-option-for-the-outfield/4/

 

[anotheridiot]

8 Teams hit into fewer double plays than the Cubs last year. They had just over 1100 ABs with a runner on First only. Only 42 of those resulted in a double play.

The days of Ricky Henderson, greatest lead off hitter of all time, are over.

Part of that is my whole point. If you did not dive into the numbers and just do eye tests, that is what is remembered? To me its low RBI numbers and rally killers. Maybe you want to, maybe you dont, but left on base numbers for hitters. A ground ball hit to the short right fielder should not be a double play, but the basics of getting them over and getting them in just did not happen when they lost 40 games in the second half because they could not score one more run. Thats batting players that should be on base for the thumpers where the thumpers usually are.

As far as Almora, to me the knock is he is not an every day player, that was the excuse for 2 years for Javy. Right now Javy is not an every day SS, or 2B or 3B, but he should be considered an every day player.

As far as almoras numbers in the 1 spot or the 5-7 spots, isn't he being asked to do different things? 5-7 spots are looking to drive in runs. This team was best when the 9 hitter was ahead of the rbi guys the next time around. All that has happened is your better hitters were being used higher in the order to "get more at bats" instead of being the sticks driving in runs. Now look a the projected lineups, bat harper 2nd, bryant 3rd, it still means someone changes their game to be the one just trying to get on base and giving us the guys making a million or less in the spots to drive them in?

 

[Castor76]

I understand your point but you can't really just look at his stats at leadoff in a bubble. He isn't magically better when he bats #1 vs. when he bats at other spots, which goes back to my point of super small sample size.

And something that needs to be figured out is why he started off so strong April-June and then collapsed July-Sep. It wasn't like it was his rookie year where he had some beginners luck and then needed to go through an adjustment period. So I'm not really sure what happened to him.

Really? Because Bryant is markedly better when in the #2 slot versus any where else. Sandberg was the same way. Some guys, like Rizzo and Zobrist, can hit just about anywhere in the line up. Other guys seem to really do well in the specific spot in the line up. The sample for his entire career is less than 1000 PA.

As far as the slump goes, lots of guys had a slump in the 2nd half.

 

[CSF77]

I believe the line up was Almora, Heyward, Bryant, Rizzo on his hot streak.

 

[CSF77]

I was kinda thinking it over. Why not start Darvish as the closer while Morrow is on the mend. That builds up his innings slower while they have Strop to keep him from back to back games. Then have Chatwood and Montgomery battle for the opening.

 

[Castor76]

Almora has just over 900 PA for his career. 532 of those have come in the 1 or 5-7 spots. His OBP in all of those is .357. He only has 285 total PA versus LHP with an OBP of .360. So he has almost as many, at least, versus RHP in those situations with an almost identical OBP. I know his post ASB number were horrible. I just think if he were put out there everyday and knew, short of injury to a better hitter shaking up the lineup, he'd be in one of two slots, you'd be happily surprised.

 

[CSF77]

Almora has just over 900 PA for his career. 532 of those have come in the 1 or 5-7 spots. His OBP in all of those is .357. He only has 285 total PA versus LHP with an OBP of .360. So he has almost as many, at least, versus RHP in those situations with an almost identical OBP. I know his post ASB number were horrible. I just think if he were put out there everyday and knew, short of injury to a better hitter shaking up the lineup, he'd be in one of two slots, you'd be happily surprised.

June was his hot month. 147 wRC+ vs RHP 87 vs LHP

As a lead off; VS LHP: 91 wRC+ vs RHP: 131

Honestly you might be right as he has held his own.

 

[Castor76]

June was his hot month. 147 wRC+ vs RHP 87 vs LHP

As a lead off; VS LHP: 91 wRC+ vs RHP: 131

Honestly you might be right as he has held his own.

I happen to believe if you went with a Almora and Zobrist swapping back and forth from Lead Off and the #6 slot, they could be very effective.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm wondering if the Rockies would deal one of their under performing relievers for Chatwood. The owe Bryan Shaw $8.5 mil next year $9 ml the year after that and either $9 mil/$2 mil buyout the third. The option year also has a lot of triggers to make it guaranteed so it's entirely possible they end up owing him $27.5 mil over the next 3 years. Chatwood is $25.5 mil over the next two. He's the first one that catches my eye as interesting because his AAV would drop the cubs from $12.666 mil to $9 mil while the cubs are technically likely on the hook for more money if that third year becomes guaranteed. Shaw has also been incredibly durable. Past 5 years he's 2nd in the majors in reliever innings at 413.1.

Rockies might also consider moving Wade Davis. That deal doesn't look great for them right now having $18 mil, $17 mil and a third year $15 mil/$1 mil buy out mutual option. To make that work they'd have to take Chatwood and probably Kintzler.

 

[CSF77]

I happen to believe if you went with a Almora and Zobrist swapping back and forth from Lead Off and the #6 slot, they could be very effective.

His walk rate will prevent him from being seriously concidered. To be a effective lead with a walk rate under 5% he would have to hit .330. And banking on that is foolish.

 

[CSF77]

I'm wondering if the Rockies would deal one of their under performing relievers for Chatwood. The owe Bryan Shaw $8.5 mil next year $9 ml the year after that and either $9 mil/$2 mil buyout the third. The option year also has a lot of triggers to make it guaranteed so it's entirely possible they end up owing him $27.5 mil over the next 3 years. Chatwood is $25.5 mil over the next two. He's the first one that catches my eye as interesting because his AAV would drop the cubs from $12.666 mil to $9 mil while the cubs are technically likely on the hook for more money if that third year becomes guaranteed. Shaw has also been incredibly durable. Past 5 years he's 2nd in the majors in reliever innings at 413.1.

Rockies might also consider moving Wade Davis. That deal doesn't look great for them right now having $18 mil, $17 mil and a third year $15 mil/$1 mil buy out mutual option. To make that work they'd have to take Chatwood and probably Kintzler.

I’m not against either

 

[beckdawg]

Something I was thinking about this morning... A week from today is the 7 year anniversary of the Garza trade from TB. Just a reminder that while it's fun to envision moves/trades that improve the team sometimes the best move is to do nothing. That's not to say trading for Garza was necessarily a dumb move but ultimately think you would rather have had Archer.