Offseason Stuff

[Steve_A]

I would imagine Strasburg by that train of thought, would opt out to simply resign for more years at the same annual salary to give himself longer term security. I don’t really see a logical reason for him to not opt out at this point

I guess the odds of him staying will be higher if the Nationals don't win the series as well.

 

[anotheridiot]

I would imagine Strasburg by that train of thought, would opt out to simply resign for more years at the same annual salary to give himself longer term security. I don’t really see a logical reason for him to not opt out at this point

Well, if KB has his grievance, remember when they has Strasburg on an innings count and kept him out of the playoffs early in his career? Really never did much to save that arm from further injuries did it?

Just makes you wonder if he is still upset about that.

 

[fatbeard]

Well, if KB has his grievance, remember when they has Strasburg on an innings count and kept him out of the playoffs early in his career? Really never did much to save that arm from further injuries did it?

Just makes you wonder if he is still upset about that.

Well, he resigned at a below-market rate with the team that kept him on that innings count and out of the playoffs instead of hitting FA when he had the chance, so he's obviously not upset about it.

 

[CSF77]

I doubt personal reasons factor much here.

The flip side is on Prior. Lost his career over a bad decision.

I'm pretty sure Boras would err in caution due to the loss of income.

 

[anotheridiot]

Well, he resigned at a below-market rate with the team that kept him on that innings count and out of the playoffs instead of hitting FA when he had the chance, so he's obviously not upset about it.

Gee, if I posted that people would call me a mind reader or having inside information, when he resigned right after an injury.
The only player ever to sign for big guaranteed money with a tommy John surgery on file was Zimmerman, which was 5 years 110 million.
2013, King Felix and Verlander both signed 7 year 175 million deals.
I would think that guaranteed money at that time, (deferred for later in life) was wondering how long he was going to be pitching.

 

[Castor76]

year/$20M (2019)

• re-signed by Boston 1/11/19 (avoided arbitration)
• award bonuses: $100,000 for AL MVP ($75,000 for second in vote, $50,000 for third). $100,000 each for WS MVP, LCS MVP. $50,000 each for All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger

Which is they reason why his name is coming up in trade blogs a lot now. Him and Bryant are going to be he hot topics this off season.

Jackie Bradly is due 11 mil. He is a DFA candadate.
Betts is going to get 20M plus. It is close to 100% certain that they trade him in his last year of control. Or they extended him.

But the key is JD, If he opts out then they all of a sudden have a ton of net worth to explore in Betts in a extension.

So I expect JD to sit on his deal. The market for a DH sucks. So Betts gets traded and Bradley gets the DFA boot. That makes 56 Mil go much further.

So, Boston DFA's their CF and trades their RF while they hope their DH opts out, which we agree he won't so they can rebuild over the next 2-3 years, all the while they pay Sale with no hope of truly competing but they won't trade Sale because him at the back end of his deal is worth so much?

In the words of a good Doctor. riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.If they are going to blow it up, why not blow it all the way up?

 

[CSF77]

So, Boston DFA's their CF and trades their RF while they hope their DH opts out, which we agree he won't so they can rebuild over the next 2-3 years, all the while they pay Sale with no hope of truly competing but they won't trade Sale because him at the back end of his deal is worth so much?

In the words of a good Doctor. riiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiight.If they are going to blow it up, why not blow it all the way up?

JD is expected to opt out. So this issue may take care of itself.

 

[CSF77]

Now Jed and Theo are being pretty much closed off about 2020 budget. But we can expect under 208M

Jed did let out that they have some 2 year control players that they need to address.

Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Russell

So I am expecting Bryant be be bipassed until the hearings to see his status first.

Baez they drive hard on a extension. He is the face of the franchisee.

Schwarber I see them offering a extension. He has the leadership skills that they would invest into.

Russell they do not extend. He is a player that they sit on until the parts have settled. They should offer arb as a UI.

So this is what I expect to be the main focus this off season. Bryant is the unstable piece. Baez and Schwarber I expect to extend.

Now after the Bryant situation clears then we will have a better feel of what they plan to add and how much contract that they can add.

 

[anotheridiot]

JD is expected to opt out. So this issue may take care of itself.

I really dont think a guy that had no interest until the end of february is looking to walk away from guaranteed money.
There will be some Boreass collusion if he opts out.

 

[CSF77]

I really dont think a guy that had no interest until the end of february is looking to walk away from guaranteed money.
There will be some Boreass collusion if he opts out.

three years and $62.5MM on the table. $20.75 AAV.

It depends if they feel that he has a better offer to gain. .304/.383/.557 (139 wRC+) is worth that even bat alone value.

 

[Steve_A]

three years and $62.5MM on the table. $20.75 AAV.

It depends if they feel that he has a better offer to gain. .304/.383/.557 (139 wRC+) is worth that even bat alone value.

Depends on whether or not a contender with a win now attitude has an opening at DH doesn't it?
Cause he surely ain't gettin' younger dude.

 

[TL1961]

If you can back this up, I'd like to see it.

Every defensive metric I've seen indicates he's an overall average defensive C. Unfortunate for him, he plays in a division with Yadier Molina, so most of the fan community has seized on how bad he looks in comparison to the greatest defensive C in MLB history.

Yadi has nothing to do with it. Yadi, as great as he was defensively, has been terribly overrated for years. He is a shell of his former self, but gets accolades anyway by lazy writers. He is not the basis for my evaluation of Contreras.

Contreras' framing has been ranked far below average every season he has played. He had a lot of errors in 2019. That isn't a subjective opinion. Look it up.

I want Willie on my team. But I am not a 12 year-old who pretends their favorites are best at everything when they aren't.

Show me a stat - any stat - that indicates Willson is above average overall as a catcher. He just isn't. And he is not smart enough to know when to say "whoa". He guns the ball over the field recklessly. He has a strong arm, and I love seeing him pick a guy off first. But he hurts more than helps by trying it too often.

 

[TL1961]

His arm is exceptional, please dont just talk him down saying it is only good.

Framing is a two way street. You get pitchers being a ball width off the zone, you get a good cheater, I mean framer. You get a guy like Lester berating umpires for not giving him a zone 6 inches big, the catcher does not get much help.

Dont rule out he is a career 11.5 war guy, 3.1 last year. Other than 2018 where he hit .249/.339/.390 after a dismal second half (after being the all star game starter) he is giving you .275/.350/.500 offensively.

Theo brought up the point he has been trying different ways of cheating and thought he liked where he is right now. You watch other guys move their gloves a foot to frame and are being called the good cheaters. Its just bringing it back to the corner that makes a great one. But yeah, lets just get him cheating better and accept a .240/.300/.390 offensive player.

Arm STRENGTH is exceptional. Accuracy? Well, check the errors and get back to me. I love when he guns a guy out, but errors kill.

His WAR is due to his offense, which I have repeatedly said I want to retain.

 

[CSF77]

For those looking for an indication of the Cubs’ offseason spending strategy, this week’s comments from president Theo Epstein provided little fuel for fire–even if Epstein has previously shown a willingness to lift the curtain on club plans. “As an organization, we’re not talking about payroll or luxury tax at all,” Epstein is quoted as saying in an article from Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. “I feel like every time we’ve been at all specific, or even allowed people to make inferences from things we’ve said, it just puts us in a hole strategically.”

While North Side fans would likely love for the club to pursue upper-echelon free agents like Gerrit Cole or Anthony Rendon, Bastian calculates that such a development is unlikely given the club’s current payroll commitments. Chicago is accountable for roughly $107MM toward eight contracts next season, before providing for team options on Anthony Rizzo ($16.5MM) and Jose Quintana ($10.5MM). The Cubs opened 2019 with a payroll in excess of $203MM, before finishing with a disappointing 84-78 record and missing the playoffs.

 

[CSF77]

As far as tax is concerned:

Lester: 25.833M
Heyward: 23M
Darvish 21M
Kimbrel: 14.3M
Hendricks: 13.875M
Chatwood: 12.667M
Bote: 3M
Descalso: 2.5M

Opt's:
Rizzo
Q
Phelps

Arb:
Bryant
Baez
Schwarber
Russell
Contreas
Almora
Ryan

Rest are under team control.

 

[Fred Garvin]

Kris Bryant already turned down a massive contract offer by the Cubs reportedly and now this grievance thing...for a player who has been on a steady descent for the last few years. I like a .282 hitter like him in my lineup. 31 homers and a high OPS....of course. Who wouldn't? BUT....is he really a "superstar"? The kind demanding HUGE top of the league money? He only hit .250 with RISP. For comparison....Rendon hit .350 w RISP. Yes....KB is a good player. BUT...he has NOT been a real clutch player in a looong time. The Cards in one game walked Rizzo in order to get to Bryant with the bases loaded. That should tell you right there what the rest of the league thinks of him in pressure situations. You don't walk guys so you can face superstars with the bases loaded. You just don't. Plus...Bryant's worst numbers were against the two teams you need him to hit well against in the league. The Cardinals and Brewers. Bryant hit the worst against those two teams.

For me...I just hope other teams have the same inflated opinion of him that some of our more delusional fans do and are willing to give up a ton for him. We'll see...but It's hard for me to be a big fan of a guy like KB who really can't wait to get the hell out of here...and has been so gawd awful against our biggest rivals and continues to fail when we need him the most. Yes....very good player whose numbers you want in the lineup. No doubt. But this is a great time to let him go.

 

[SilenceS]

Kris Bryant already turned down a massive contract offer by the Cubs reportedly and now this grievance thing...for a player who has been on a steady descent for the last few years. I like a .282 hitter like him in my lineup. 31 homers and a high OPS....of course. Who wouldn't? BUT....is he really a "superstar"? The kind demanding HUGE top of the league money? He only hit .250 with RISP. For comparison....Rendon hit .350 w RISP. Yes....KB is a good player. BUT...he has NOT been a real clutch player in a looong time. The Cards in one game walked Rizzo in order to get to Bryant with the bases loaded. That should tell you right there what the rest of the league thinks of him in pressure situations. You don't walk guys so you can face superstars with the bases loaded. You just don't. Plus...Bryant's worst numbers were against the two teams you need him to hit well against in the league. The Cardinals and Brewers. Bryant hit the worst against those two teams.

For me...I just hope other teams have the same inflated opinion of him that some of our more delusional fans do and are willing to give up a ton for him. We'll see...but It's hard for me to be a big fan of a guy like KB who really can't wait to get the hell out of here...and has been so gawd awful against our biggest rivals and continues to fail when we need him the most. Yes....very good player whose numbers you want in the lineup. No doubt. But this is a great time to let him go.

The Nationals walked Michael Brantley at least twice this series to face Alex Bregman. Its called strategy based on situation.

We should sign Howie Kendrick. Im sure he will be "clutch" for us.

 

[CSF77]

The Nationals walked Michael Brantley at least twice this series to face Alex Bregman. Its called strategy based on situation.

We should sign Howie Kendrick. Im sure he will be "clutch" for us.

Trading Bryant is the right move. Rendon most likely resigns and I see ATL retaining Donaldson.

The teams that would be good targets are Minn, LAA and Texas Rangers. Joe now with the Halos they might be in play for some flashy moves and this might be a opertunity for Theo to get a strong return for KB.

 

[anotheridiot]

Trading Bryant is the right move. Rendon most likely resigns and I see ATL retaining Donaldson.

The teams that would be good targets are Minn, LAA and Texas Rangers. Joe now with the Halos they might be in play for some flashy moves and this might be a opertunity for Theo to get a strong return for KB.

If the Halos have done their homework, they will see that Joe is not a good fit with big money, big names. Small money, small egos, small names, sure, he wins with those types of teams. Remember, even with Lester and Heyward the cubs were like 13th or 14th in payroll. If they never did the heyward thing and trusted Soler, they would have won the world series being somewhere around 20th in payroll.

Tampa was perfect for him because they would make a run then retool and new guys would perform until they tired of the hippie manager.

Believe me, this hippie with the eyes on opiod abuse with the pitcher last year, its not going to go over well when he tells his team to use the 30 minute rule and go out to party. Even if they get Rondon there, Joe is still going to start LaStella at third three days a week.

 

[CSF77]

If the Halos have done their homework, they will see that Joe is not a good fit with big money, big names. Small money, small egos, small names, sure, he wins with those types of teams. Remember, even with Lester and Heyward the cubs were like 13th or 14th in payroll. If they never did the heyward thing and trusted Soler, they would have won the world series being somewhere around 20th in payroll.

Tampa was perfect for him because they would make a run then retool and new guys would perform until they tired of the hippie manager.

Believe me, this hippie with the eyes on opiod abuse with the pitcher last year, its not going to go over well when he tells his team to use the 30 minute rule and go out to party. Even if they get Rondon there, Joe is still going to start LaStella at third three days a week.

Joe lost depth.

The problem was Theo sold off system depth in hitting to correct system depth in pitching.

It was a choice made early on when they chose to attack the draft via hitting from the begining.

Regardless, the Halos made a big commitment to Joe and made a huge extension to Trout. Otani will be starting again. I expect them to make a huge play on Cole. They could even afford to go after Hamels as a 4/5 option at lesser cash

Bryant would be a savings trade to keep payroll in check for them. I wouldn't expect Adell in return. But Marsh I would be happy as a return with a pitcher like Sandoval.