One Man's Take on Recent High Dollar Free Agents

[KBisBack!]

I gave you a list from the Braves that stretched out over 20 years!!!

:

And how many of them threw mid 90's??

I will even concede the point of most of your list is not guys who threw mid 90's.

So you have named 1 out of the 30 teams.

So let's all get our panties in a bunch that the Cubs haven't done what one team has done.

 

[KBisBack!]

If Jeff Samardzija is worth 10 prospects, shouldn't 2 proven major leaguers be worth 3 prospects?

Sure is easy to knock someone for actually posting a trade idea. Go ahead Mr. Wizard, knock our socks off with a trade proposal of your own.

:nervous:

Not DeJesus and Barney, who you were given a lengthy explanation of how they did not help the Royals.

Yet again another thread derailed by willrust's fetish to argue everything I say, no matter the lack of facts or logic from his end.

 

[KBisBack!]

As with most of these debates time is going to be the ultimate answer.

And time has shown repeatedly how extremely difficult it is to have a never ending supply of quality major league players developed from the farm system.

Yet everything thinks Theo and Co can throw away a couple seasons, snap their fingers and wave their magic wand and make it happen.

 

[KBisBack!]

I get what you are saying, but then you are combining a current ranking with a historic ranking, and expecting a current ranking to somehow take into account what happened in the past. If you think the current rankings are just "guesswork", how would adding some sort of subjective historic aspect to the ranking make it less of a "guess"? Wouldn't that cloud the issue even more? When I look at farm system rankings, I take them to mean how much projected talent is currently in the farm system. Pretty simple. I would guess that a team could spend a 1st round pick on a Mike Trout and have the player be great....so does that mean you have a great farm system, or great scouting?

Yes I am combing current ranking with a historic ranking for a more complete analysis of the system.

Also, Mike Trout came out of the system just last year, it isn't like I am saying they should be ranked higher currently because they developed Troy Glaus.

I would also including the historic aspect also reduces the subjective aspect by using actual facts that are harder to make subjective unless the player was a borderline player. Mike Trout is not a borderline player. I don't think it is all that subjective to call him a great player.

It is possible for it to cloud the issue more based on the amount of prospect worshippers who value prospects greater than major league players.

As for Trout and 1st round pick etc, I never said that producing him made the farm system great, just that calling the team that produced a top five player in all of baseball arguably in the last year probably doesn't make them the worst farm system in baseball.

In terms of the farm system, I also include scouting as part of the equation because it is certainly the scouting the stocks the farm system, so I do not separate them in my mind.

 

[KBisBack!]

I don't remember anyone saying that Trout wasn't a great player. How is that an issue?

It isn't. Further clarifying my statement on how using the historical facts reduces subjectivity.

How would it be possible to have a current farm system ranking based on major league players? Do have current college football BCS rankings based on how many players each school has in the NFL? Again, you are misinterpreting whats actually being measured.

Two totally different systems, so it is a poor comparison.

BCS rankings reflect the performance on the field and the W/L records of the entire team.

Farm system rankings ignore team performance.

Yes, I don't think anyone is putting forth the causal relationship of "Because this team produced a top five baseball player, that makes them the worst farm system in baseball".

Farm system rankings are what they are. They provide a guesswork snapshot of right now. Take it for what you will, but don't think its an actual historic measurement based on what happens in the Majors.

CFS stated exactly that the Angels "have one of the worst farm systems in baseball". That is what I responded to.

You don't think it's an actual historic measurement based on what happens in the Majors, but many people believe in them fully that they are an accurate predictor for the future. It isn't, but yet many Cubs fans are placing the entire future of the Cubs being a successful franchise based on these rankings and ignoring free agency.

 

[Boobaby1]

I don't remember anyone saying that Trout wasn't a great player. How is that an issue?




How would it be possible to have a current farm system ranking based on major league players? Do have current college football BCS rankings based on how many players each school has in the NFL? Again, you are misinterpreting whats actually being measured.




Yes, I don't think anyone is putting forth the causal relationship of "Because this team produced a top five baseball player, that makes them the worst farm system in baseball".

Farm system rankings are what they are. They provide a guesswork snapshot of right now. Take it for what you will, but don't think its an actual historic measurement based on what happens in the Majors.

There are many people who are on board (which I am) with the building of the Cubs farm system for sustained growth. There are also many (which I am) who feel that the parent level should be doing everything to field a competitive ball club. It's the BOTH thing and this is an argument that goes round and round because some feel you can only have it one way.

People buy in way too much of the overall ranking of a farm system in my opinion. Kind of like the win/loss totals for a pitcher. It doesn't paint the whole story.

I have read too many posts on here that say the Cubs at whatever cost should go after David Price. Here is what I don't get. Yes, Price would be a great attribute to the pitching staff and be a bona fide ace.

Now here's the kicker. In order to get Price, the Cubs would literally have to empty the farm so-to-speak to acquire him, thus throwing the whole organization back 3-4 years, and not improving the major league team much because they are not able to, or will not fork out money on free agents to compliment the team.

The Cubs farm system that everyone applauded as going from one of the worst, to a borderline top ten system in one year, would then go back towards the bottom again even with Appel or Gray.

Take Baez, Almora, and Voglebach or Rock Shoulders out of the Cubs farm system because that is where the Cubs would I'm guessing have to start the conversation with Tampa and see where they would then rank.

 

[patg006]

If Jeff Samardzija is worth 10 prospects, shouldn't 2 proven major leaguers be worth 3 prospects?

Sure is easy to knock someone for actually posting a trade idea. Go ahead Mr. Wizard, knock our socks off with a trade proposal of your own.

:nervous:

Darwin Barney and David DeJesus and all the cash in the world are not worth obtaining the Royals' #3 prospect, a lottery 2nd round pick which is 34th overall, and one of Lamb (their #5 prospect.) Marks and Adcock you have a chance at, and KC may just deal those 2 for 2.

The Royals, even if they become desperate in the chase will find a better deal for better players elsewhere. I'm sure their #3 and/or #5 prospects would better suit them with a Chase Utley in return.....

 

[KBisBack!]

People buy in way too much of the overall ranking of a farm system in my opinion. Kind of like the win/loss totals for a pitcher. It doesn't paint the whole story.

Boo, you summed it up much better than I have been able to.

I was trying to use the example of a recently developed player from a minor league system (Mike Trout) should be included in the painting of the whole story, not just a snapshot so to speak of the Angels as the 'worst farm system in baseball'

 

[KBisBack!]

Its like you are grading this year's Bears draft based on what guys from the Bears' 2010 draft are doing in the NFL.

That isn't quite what I am trying to do. Boo may have explained it better than I.

For the Bears comparison, I would likely take a couple years of drafts and data (as long as it is the same management team basically) and use that to better evaluate their success in drafting rather than just the one season if that makes sense. Different sports, different drafts so really hard to make a good comparison, just trying to do a better job explaining what I am trying to explain! lol

You are combining two different things into one ranking...thats fine if you want to do that, but recognize that current farm system rankings are only based on what players are currently in the farm system.

Never said I didn't recognize that.

Just saying that including what recent players promoted to the majors gives a better indication of the overall productivity of a farm system than just a snapshot of the current farm system.

 

[Willrust]

It appears that the Phillies are interested in picking up a SP. Reports have them actively seeking a trade for Major League SP to take Halladay's place. They are also rumored to be wanting to cut payroll.

What if a 3 team deal arose:

Phillies get Darwin Barney & ONE OF Scott Feldman/Villanueva from Cubs, along with Adcock from Royals.
Royals get Chase Utley from Phillies & David DeJesus + Cash from Cubs.
Cubs get #34 pick & Ventura from Royals & ONE OF Adam Morgan/Ethan Martin/Sabastian Valle from the Phillies.

Phillies get reduced payroll & 2B replacement for Utley, experienced SP & major league ready bullpen arm.
Royals get huge offensive upgrade at 2B, solid LH platoon RFer to spell Frenchy vs RHP and cash.
Cubs get prospects.


Pat,

Just because a prospect is listed as the #3 or #5 in a teams organization doesn't mean they are that highly rated compared to other prospects. The Phillies #1 prospect is Jesse Biddle and he is ranked anywhere from #60 to #102 in terms of all MLB prospects depending upon the publication. The Brewers #1 prospect is Wily Peralta and after him the next guy is well past #100. Specifically for the Royals (according to Scouting Book), Ventura (Scouting Book's #4 prospect in Royals system) is #127 in all of professional baseball & Lamb (Scouting Book's #10 prospect in Royals system) is #309 in all of professional baseball.

 

[KBisBack!]

But, for the third time, current farm system rankings aren't measuring the whole story. They are measuring the current farm system.

Kind of a circle jerk now...so I'm bailing out. You either don't understand the issue, or you choose to not understand it. I would guess its the latter, which is kind of an improvement for you IMO.

Or maybe you should have read my response to you first before running your mouth further where I prefer to use a whole story rather than just a snapshot.

I understand the issue completely. I just put even less importance on prospect wankings than even what you attempt to interject into what had been a previously intelligent conversation.

 

[KBisBack!]

What if a 3 team deal arose:

Phillies get Darwin Barney & ONE OF Scott Feldman/Villanueva from Cubs, along with Adcock from Royals.
Royals get Chase Utley from Phillies & David DeJesus + Cash from Cubs.
Cubs get #34 pick & Ventura from Royals & ONE OF Adam Morgan/Ethan Martin/Sabastian Valle from the Phillies.

Phillies get reduced payroll & 2B replacement for Utley, experienced SP & major league ready bullpen arm.
Royals get huge offensive upgrade at 2B, solid LH platoon RFer to spell Frenchy vs RHP and cash.
Cubs get prospects.

Well, as I already stated, DeJesus does little to address the Royals needs and Jim Bowden speculated that come July Utley could be gotten for a pair of mid level prospects. So once again you have the Royals drastically overpaying for Utley and a platoon OF at best.

 

[patg006]

It appears that the Phillies are interested in picking up a SP. Reports have them actively seeking a trade for Major League SP to take Halladay's place. They are also rumored to be wanting to cut payroll.

What if a 3 team deal arose:

Phillies get Darwin Barney & ONE OF Scott Feldman/Villanueva from Cubs, along with Adcock from Royals.
Royals get Chase Utley from Phillies & David DeJesus + Cash from Cubs.
Cubs get #34 pick & Ventura from Royals & ONE OF Adam Morgan/Ethan Martin/Sabastian Valle from the Phillies.

Phillies get reduced payroll & 2B replacement for Utley, experienced SP & major league ready bullpen arm.
Royals get huge offensive upgrade at 2B, solid LH platoon RFer to spell Frenchy vs RHP and cash.
Cubs get prospects.


Pat,

Just because a prospect is listed as the #3 or #5 in a teams organization doesn't mean they are that highly rated compared to other prospects. The Phillies #1 prospect is Jesse Biddle and he is ranked anywhere from #60 to #102 in terms of all MLB prospects depending upon the publication. The Brewers #1 prospect is Wily Peralta and after him the next guy is well past #100. Specifically for the Royals (according to Scouting Book), Ventura (Scouting Book's #4 prospect in Royals system) is #127 in all of professional baseball & Lamb (Scouting Book's #10 prospect in Royals system) is #309 in all of professional baseball.

I wont get into the petty semantics of prospect rankings, fine. A battle I probably wont win to you. But the Royals arent a team who can go out and spend big money, so prospects matter more to them. If they didnt think they had a chance at locking up James Shields, they wouldnt have pulled the trigger.

MLB's top 20 prospects by team (updated recently) had Ventura 3rd and Lamb 5th. And I dont know them like Boyd would, but I just know Bubba Starling is their best one. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/

Cant see your three-way trade happening. Philly downgrades too far at 2nd base and gives up either their 2nd ranked prospect (Morgan) or 7th or 8th (Martin and Valle) just to only receive Feldman/Villy and a mediocre bullpen guy.