Otani posted, will be in MLB in 2018

[chibears55]

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[chibears55]

Why would Ohtani do this? Why would he not at least hear all offers?

Unless im wrong, only thing teams can offer are minor league deals...

Ohtani decision is going to be based on who makes the best presentation and wins him over...


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[CSF77]

Yu Darvish, Shohei Ohtani Among Priorities For Twins
November 26th, 2017 at 11:05am CST • By Connor Byrne
Speaking with Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden of Sirius XM Radio on Sunday, Twins general manager Thad Levine confirmed that the team is in the market for major pitching upgrades. Levine revealed that the Twins are actively talking with the agents for available starters Yu Darvish, Jake Arrieta, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb, among others, as well as representatives for various relievers (all Twitter links). The executive specifically pointed to Darvish as “a priority,” and he used the same word to describe soon-to-be free agent Shohei Ohtani.

“He’s a unique free agent, but we don’t know a lot about him personally yet,” Levine said of Ohtani. “It’s exciting for us because we have a chance to sign a player like him. He’s a top priority for us.”

The three-week sweepstakes to sign Ohtani, a Japanese pitching and hitting superstar, appears likely to commence at the start of December. Had the 23-year-old Ohtani waited until the age of 25 to come to the majors, he would have been in line to sign a mega-deal, which may have ruled out a serious Twins pursuit. But the collective bargaining agreement will limit Ohtani to a low-cost minor league contract this offseason, thereby giving all teams some chance to sign him if they’re willing to pay a $20MM posting fee to his Japanese organization, the Nippon Ham Fighters, for his services. While money isn’t going to guide Ohtani’s decision this offseason, it’s notable anyway that the Twins have the third-most bonus pool space available ($3.245MM). That won’t hurt them in their chase, of course, but they’ll have to sell Ohtani on how he’d fit into their organization and city.

Interestingly, there has been speculation that, because of the good relationship they forged in their homeland, Ohtani and Darvish, 31, could end up with the same team this winter as a sort of package deal. Landing the pair would be an enormous boon for anyone, including Minnesota, which snapped a six-year playoff drought in 2017 despite an underwhelming showing from its rotation. Twins starters ranked 19th in the majors in ERA (4.73) and 22nd in fWAR (7.7) last season, so the need for quality hurlers to complement Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios is obvious.

Considering Darvish could pull in the richest contract of the offseason, many would expect him to land outside of small-market Minnesota’s price range. However, the club is well positioned to make a bold strike in free agency this winter, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained earlier this month. The team itself seems to agree, judging by the established free agents it’s currently pursuing, and it’s worth noting that Levine is already familiar with Darvish from their time together in Texas.

When the Rangers landed Darvish out of Japan in 2012, Levine was their assistant GM. That experience might help during Ohtani’s recruitment, as could the fact that the Twins aren’t exactly set at designated hitter. By most accounts, Ohtani has enough offensive talent to collect regular at-bats in the majors, so he could emerge as the DH for a Minnesota team that only received average production there from Robbie Grossman and Kennys Vargas last season.

 

[CSF77]

Not really sure on Minn and Yu/Ohtani. But it is a match up in needs. It would put that team into the play off picture for years to come.

 

[beckdawg]

Not really sure on Minn and Yu/Ohtani. But it is a match up in needs. It would put that team into the play off picture for years to come.

Really doubt that's enough to sway him to go to minnesota but if that's all it takes the cubs could easily make the same offer. In fact I'd argue the best move the cubs can make is to sign darvish regardless of ohtani. The fact that darvish might give you an edge with regard to ohtani is just bonus.

 

[CSF77]

I know most here want to create loophole theories of why the Cubs have a shot. And I get it it is part of being a fan and all of a team. But realistic speaking. He would lose out on too many AB’s if he pitches on a NL team.

My theory was he would go NL because of the 5 game pitching rotation vs the 1 per week in Japan. That memo pretty much states hitting and pitching. Which means two way player. Which puts the best NL situation behind the worst AL situation.

But I get it. Being a fan makes one unrealistic.

 

[CSF77]

But that said. My opinion of him is DL case in his future. Most pitchers coming over end up under the knife anyways. Then you add in DH duties.

Sure he did it there but over there he was the Tue night starter then DH the rest. Over here he is pitching every 5th day and DH the other 4. Feels like a implosion

 

[beckdawg]

I know most here want to create loophole theories of why the Cubs have a shot. And I get it it is part of being a fan and all of a team. But realistic speaking. He would lose out on too many AB’s if he pitches on a NL team.

I strongly disagree. The assumption you're playing with is that he's going to DH but I just don't buy it. For one thing he's not going to play literally every day which is what most DH's do. As a pitcher you don't want him active every day because by the time he pitches he'll be useless. So in the best case maybe he hits DH when he pitches and 2 out of the next 4 days he has off. But that then means you're having a guy on your active roster who's there solely to DH the remaining time. And the thing is that's not how AL teams build. They don't build for a DH like an NL team would with guys who can be 4th/5th OF. They find guys who can hit and put them as the full time DH and they are generally guys who don't provide value else where.

That's why I think the idea of him as an AL DH is stupid. You have to go into the season assuming he's going to see major time when he's never hit in the majors and you have no idea if he will even be good or how much that will impact his pitching. That's why the NL makes much more sense to me. Letting him hit costs you as the team nothing. If he's a bad hitter vs MLB pitching then it's just like any other pitcher. If he performs well then you can consider PH situations. Between those two cases he can easily get to 100+ PAs. The 10 best DH's in baseball had 500+ PAs. Think it's safe to say he's not going to be that yet. For the sake of argument let's say 400 PAs is what an "average" DH will get. If he's playing 3 out of 5 games(60%) he'd get 240 PAs. As a reference point here, La Stella had 44 PAs as a PH and Lester had 65 PAs as a pitcher. So that's ~110 PAs.

So you're really only talking about 130 or so PA difference if he's good and if he's good as a hitter a creative NL manager will find ways to use him. For example, you wouldn't have to take him out after PH. You could allow him to stay in RF for a second at bat depending on the game situation/his usage the previous days. Alternatively, I would strongly see Maddon being Maddon if he came to the cubs and just emptying his bench on sundays. Playing in LF/RF one day a week could easily net you another 100 PAs over a full season. Plus if you put him on an AL team and say he's the DH do you really want that pressure on him? It's hard enough to be a good pitcher in baseball but now you're throwing on top of that the difficulty of him not only needing to be a good pitcher but needing him to play well as a hitter since you've gone down the path of a platoon DH.

He may go to an AL team but I don't think it will be because he's going to be their every day DH. And if he truly wants to hit I think he'll go to an NL team because the barrier for the team to allow him to hit is much lower. In the AL you have to sacrifice likely an above league average hitter to let him see any shot at hitting. In the NL he's potentially Arrieta/Bumgarner as a value added pitcher. As a comparison here, Bumgarner the last 4 years as a pitcher has hit .224/.272/.433 with 15 HRs in 292 PAs. Last year Ohtani had 231 PAs and 8 HRs. He did hit for a significantly higher triple slash at .332/.403/.540 but obviously it was vs worse pitching. Eric Thames hit .247/.359/.518 in the majors and .321/.427/.679 in Korea(2016) as someone who successfully transitioned from asian pro ball to the majors. So can Ohtani maybe hit say .240/.310/.380? Maybe but a league average DH last year hit .248/.320/.434.

And sure you promise to give him the chance to hit if that's what it takes to sign him as a pitcher. My only point here is people expecting him to actually be an above average hitter are likely way to optimistic. If he were to come over purely as a hitter he'd go straight to the minors and probably not even AAA.

 

[CSF77]

“An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter

That part is the flag. Hitting matters to him. Add to it he has gone as far as studdying Bryce’s hitting technique. Which in general means not satisfied as a hobby hitter as most NL pitchers are.

The reality is this is a unique case where you have a guy that can hit 100 mph and hit 30 HR’s. It is unheard of and even Babe had to choose which he loved more.

Seeing how this is uncharted territory and he is creating a niche. I doubt he limits himself by removing a path to the most AB’s.

A pitcher will get 3 AB’s per game as a starter. Avg 33 starts. 99 AB’s. Then 1 PH per off day 129. 238 potential AB’s.

DH 4 off days don’t hit on start. 4 AB per. 516 potential AB’s

Over 2X the AB’s

Now I get a fan perspective and how it clouds judgement. The AB’s alone point towards a AL marriage.

Now I believe that he will wreck his body and be forced to choose his true love. But out of the gate he will go after his dream of being a two way player and a AL team is the ONLY choice.

 

[DanTown]

“An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter

That part is the flag. Hitting matters to him. Add to it he has gone as far as studdying Bryce’s hitting technique. Which in general means not satisfied as a hobby hitter as most NL pitchers are.

The reality is this is a unique case where you have a guy that can hit 100 mph and hit 30 HR’s. It is unheard of and even Babe had to choose which he loved more.

Seeing how this is uncharted territory and he is creating a niche. I doubt he limits himself by removing a path to the most AB’s.

A pitcher will get 3 AB’s per game as a starter. Avg 33 starts. 99 AB’s. Then 1 PH per off day 129. 238 potential AB’s.

DH 4 off days don’t hit on start. 4 AB per. 516 potential AB’s

Over 2X the AB’s

Now I get a fan perspective and how it clouds judgement. The AB’s alone point towards a AL marriage.

Now I believe that he will wreck his body and be forced to choose his true love. But out of the gate he will go after his dream of being a two way player and a AL team is the ONLY choice.

Because no team is going to ask a guy to be a 500 PA hitter and pitch 200 innings. There is no way that a guy has the energy, stamina, and leg strength to do that.

I could see a team like the Cubs saying

This could be your schedule

Day 1 - Pitch
Day 2 - one PH PA OR total day off
Day 3 - OF
Day 4 - OF
Day 5 - total day off
Day 6 - Pitch

I mean he's battled injuries in Japan, if his goal is to come to the US, play and travel in a way that he's never done against the best competition in the world then he's going to need rest days built in to it.

 

[chibears55]

I think some of you are looking too deep into this....

The guy a pitcher who can hit well...

In 4 seasons he played 62 G in OF, none in last 3 seasons.....
85 G as a Pitcher.

I wouldnt be surprise if the kid just wants to pitch and will be satified with getting his AB then and PH in other games, with maybe being a DH in a few of those games..
I doubt he ever starts in OF

He'll get about 150 ABs



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[beckdawg]

“An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter

That part is the flag. Hitting matters to him. Add to it he has gone as far as studdying Bryce’s hitting technique. Which in general means not satisfied as a hobby hitter as most NL pitchers are.

The reality is this is a unique case where you have a guy that can hit 100 mph and hit 30 HR’s. It is unheard of and even Babe had to choose which he loved more.

Seeing how this is uncharted territory and he is creating a niche. I doubt he limits himself by removing a path to the most AB’s.

A pitcher will get 3 AB’s per game as a starter. Avg 33 starts. 99 AB’s. Then 1 PH per off day 129. 238 potential AB’s.

DH 4 off days don’t hit on start. 4 AB per. 516 potential AB’s

Over 2X the AB’s

Now I get a fan perspective and how it clouds judgement. The AB’s alone point towards a AL marriage.

Now I believe that he will wreck his body and be forced to choose his true love. But out of the gate he will go after his dream of being a two way player and a AL team is the ONLY choice.

He's not that unique. If Bumgarner wanted to he could hit 30 HRs. Arrieta probably could too. So, ask yourself why aren't teams finding ways to put them into the line up every chance they can? And frankly just because he can hit 30 HRs which I'm dubious on(reports I've read said 25 tops) that doesn't mean anything. Schwarber hit 30 HRs in 486 PAs last year and many cubs fans think he's garbage. If Ohtani hits .220 or w/e he's not particularly useful. And you simply can't sit here and say because he hit over .300 in japan that he's a quality hitter. Scouting I've read on him suggested he'd be a 45 grade hit tool which is like .250 but it could easily be worse than that because if memory serves Schwarber had a 60 hit grade coming into the majors and obviously that hasn't worked out yet.

And I mean you think Bumgarner and Arrieta don't like batting just as much as Ohtani does? Bumgarner was angling to get in the HR derby. But like Ohtani, pitching is where their bread is buttered and they know that. Ultimately there's a reason you don't see 2 way guys and MLB isn't just going to change because of one guy. I'm sure some will promise him the chance but ultimately if in AL team offers him DH it's going to quickly fade and I'm willing to bet we don't hear about it in 3 years because it's just too hard to do the kind of prep you need to for both pitching and hitting and the game is exhausting. Full time hitters only often don't get to 500 PAs and they aren't also pitching every 5th day.

If hitting is important to him then he should flat out go to the NL. He can still focus on pitching 24/7 and still see enough opportunities to scratch the itch. And if he's actually good as a hitter theres plenty of other ways to get him more chances be it by hitting him higher in the line up, PHs, an occasional positional start...etc. But he's never making $200 mil+ because he can hit. If the idea is he wants to come now to quickly get that $200+ mil extension he's going to need to pitch lights out. Him trying to full time DH is just distracting from that.

 

[CSF77]

I get how hitting is a distraction to pitching. But this is his situation and honestly he has every team at his feet begging. He will get what he wants regardless of any common sense.

I just see him following his heart and what happens happens. If team: A says you need to pitch and hitting maybe in a limited role. They shot themselves in the foot.

Best situation is: want to DH. You got it. You want Yu. Got it. Anything else sir.

 

[anotheridiot]

Because no team is going to ask a guy to be a 500 PA hitter and pitch 200 innings. There is no way that a guy has the energy, stamina, and leg strength to do that.

I could see a team like the Cubs saying

This could be your schedule

Day 1 - Pitch
Day 2 - one PH PA OR total day off
Day 3 - OF
Day 4 - OF
Day 5 - total day off
Day 6 - Pitch

I mean he's battled injuries in Japan, if his goal is to come to the US, play and travel in a way that he's never done against the best competition in the world then he's going to need rest days built in to it.

His only OF day would be the day he would be scheduled to throw on the side.

 

[anotheridiot]

He's not that unique. If Bumgarner wanted to he could hit 30 HRs. Arrieta probably could too. So, ask yourself why aren't teams finding ways to put them into the line up every chance they can? And frankly just because he can hit 30 HRs which I'm dubious on(reports I've read said 25 tops) that doesn't mean anything. Schwarber hit 30 HRs in 486 PAs last year and many cubs fans think he's garbage. If Ohtani hits .220 or w/e he's not particularly useful. And you simply can't sit here and say because he hit over .300 in japan that he's a quality hitter. Scouting I've read on him suggested he'd be a 45 grade hit tool which is like .250 but it could easily be worse than that because if memory serves Schwarber had a 60 hit grade coming into the majors and obviously that hasn't worked out yet.

And I mean you think Bumgarner and Arrieta don't like batting just as much as Ohtani does? Bumgarner was angling to get in the HR derby. But like Ohtani, pitching is where their bread is buttered and they know that. Ultimately there's a reason you don't see 2 way guys and MLB isn't just going to change because of one guy. I'm sure some will promise him the chance but ultimately if in AL team offers him DH it's going to quickly fade and I'm willing to bet we don't hear about it in 3 years because it's just too hard to do the kind of prep you need to for both pitching and hitting and the game is exhausting. Full time hitters only often don't get to 500 PAs and they aren't also pitching every 5th day.

If hitting is important to him then he should flat out go to the NL. He can still focus on pitching 24/7 and still see enough opportunities to scratch the itch. And if he's actually good as a hitter theres plenty of other ways to get him more chances be it by hitting him higher in the line up, PHs, an occasional positional start...etc. But he's never making $200 mil+ because he can hit. If the idea is he wants to come now to quickly get that $200+ mil extension he's going to need to pitch lights out. Him trying to full time DH is just distracting from that.

Interesting, so here are two pitchers who would love to hit every day but both play in the NL where its not an option. Joe did not even use Jake when he started all righties and had no option when they put a lefty in the game. Even more of a reason he plays in the AL.

 

[CSF77]

Those guys are pitchers who like hitting. It has little to do with ability to do so vs they are pitchers first.

It takes time and dedication to be a everyday hitter at the major league level. Just the same dedication goes into pitching and conditioning for it.

I honesty believe it is not possible to be a two way star myself. But I also believe that he has been doing it in Japan and figures it translates over

 

[beckdawg]

I get how hitting is a distraction to pitching. But this is his situation and honestly he has every team at his feet begging. He will get what he wants regardless of any common sense.

I just see him following his heart and what happens happens. If team: A says you need to pitch and hitting maybe in a limited role. They shot themselves in the foot.

Best situation is: want to DH. You got it. You want Yu. Got it. Anything else sir.

But you're assuming he wants to hit that much that it will override other factors when I don't particularly think that is the case. I see it more in the vein of Rizzo telling Maddon daily he can lead off. It's great that a player wants to challenge themselves but at the end of the day it's not about the player it's about the team. And while I'm not suggesting Ohtani will make it about himself, if he does that's the mark of an incredibly selfish person. If he were to do that do you really want that guy on your team?

And frankly if his agent is doing his job then he shouldn't want Ohtani to hit either. Whatever he may do with a bat is not going to be as valuable as his ceiling as a pitcher. If he's a better than league average hitter he maybe gets $100 mil. If he's an ace caliber pitcher he easily gets $200 mil at his age and might approach $250 or maybe even $300 mil.

Again I don't know his thought process any better than you do but if a team is literally offering me anything I want that team seems fairly desperate and would turn me off. It's one thing if it's money but if a team is willing to throw the 24 other players on the active roster under a bus just to have me I don't want to be on that team.

 

[anotheridiot]

sure seems like everyone is holding out on Jake until they see who gets this guy.

 

[beckdawg]

sure seems like everyone is holding out on Jake until they see who gets this guy.

Think it's more a winter meetings thing. Big deals really don't happen this early most years. And we're only like 2 weeks until the winter meetings. Given how cold the hot stove has been I think the winter meetings could get crazy.

 

[CSF77]

sure seems like everyone is holding out on Jake until they see who gets this guy.

Jake has his market and he has been talked to. Yu also has been tied to a few teams. But the upper tier has been stalled due to this.

The Cubs not making a move is a little shocking due to them needing 2 SP. if it was just 1 I could see holding a rotation spot open. But even then they need a closer and a set up then 2 SP. it really feels like they are stalling due to wanting to address via trade vs F/A then use F/A to back fill.