Otani posted, will be in MLB in 2018

[CSF77]

But you're assuming he wants to hit that much that it will override other factors when I don't particularly think that is the case. I see it more in the vein of Rizzo telling Maddon daily he can lead off. It's great that a player wants to challenge themselves but at the end of the day it's not about the player it's about the team. And while I'm not suggesting Ohtani will make it about himself, if he does that's the mark of an incredibly selfish person. If he were to do that do you really want that guy on your team?

And frankly if his agent is doing his job then he shouldn't want Ohtani to hit either. Whatever he may do with a bat is not going to be as valuable as his ceiling as a pitcher. If he's a better than league average hitter he maybe gets $100 mil. If he's an ace caliber pitcher he easily gets $200 mil at his age and might approach $250 or maybe even $300 mil.

Again I don't know his thought process any better than you do but if a team is literally offering me anything I want that team seems fairly desperate and would turn me off. It's one thing if it's money but if a team is willing to throw the 24 other players on the active roster under a bus just to have me I don't want to be on that team.

It really is not about tossing a team under the bus just like that article posted that Minn has a need for a DH and 2 SP. They can fill those 3 spots with 2 players. At that point they need to have a bat first player that can DH when needed. Say a extra corner OF that you can DH when needed. Which lessens the load on Ohtani

 

[CSF77]

Think it's more a winter meetings thing. Big deals really don't happen this early most years. And we're only like 2 weeks until the winter meetings. Given how cold the hot stove has been I think the winter meetings could get crazy.

I was kinda feeling the same way about the meetings. But if I recall most deals are pounded out in the meetings as F/A are being talked to by many teams in the meetings and the final decision normally happens towards Xmas.

But I wouldn’t be shocked with a flurry starting Jan 2 to Feb with this delay going on. I can see some trades done in the meetings as those talks started in the GM meetings.

 

[beckdawg]

It really is not about tossing a team under the bus just like that article posted that Minn has a need for a DH and 2 SP. They can fill those 3 spots with 2 players. At that point they need to have a bat first player that can DH when needed. Say a extra corner OF that you can DH when needed. Which lessens the load on Ohtani

You're not filling 3 spots with 2 players though because Ohtani isn't going to be a full time dh. Like this isn't even a debate. Absolute best case as I mentioned is he'd start 60% of the time as a DH. That means you're either doing one of two things. Either A) you're finding some scrub who's not good enough to be a full time dh and using him 40% of the time or B) you're finding someone who is good enough to DH regularly and limiting his playing time. That's throwing a guy under the bus. Ohtani has 1170 PAs in the last 5 years against inferior pitching comparable to MLB pitching. If you're even a guy in AAA how do you not see that as disrespectful to hand a guy a job you have worked your ass off for?

And the thing is if he's only had ~1200 PAs in the past 5 years he's going to have major holes in his swing that MLB pitching will exploit. He just will. Look at how Schwarber hit as a amateur and in the minors and look what's happened when he finally reached the majors. You think that's just Schwarber? Look at Bryant's K rate his first year in the majors and he even had more prep time than Schwarber. Look at Rizzo's first 3 years. MLB pitching find and expose flaws in your game and Ohtani hasn't even hit enough to find stuff most minor league players will fix in A+/AA.

That's why this hitting shit is just way over hyped. Japanesse hitter routinely see their average drop 50-70 points from foreign ball to MLB. For example, Nori Aoki was a career .329/.402/.454 in Japan and is a career .285/.350/.387 hitter in the majors. Kazuo Matsui was a career .291/.344/.451 hitter in japan and a MLB .267/.321/.380 hitter. Ichiro was a career was a career .353/.421/.522 hitter in japan and .312/.355/.403 in the majors. Fukudome was was a career .293/.385/.504 in japan and .258/.359/.395 in the majors. Munenori Kawasaki hit .292/.344/.376 in japan and .237/.320/.289 in the majors. And obviously all of those guys were full time hitters. Ohtani is a career .286/.358/.500 hitter in japan. Realistically you're likely talking about a .230-.240 hitter with .300-.310 OBP and probably .400-.410 SLG. Kendrys Morales last year hit .250/.308/.445 as a DH and was good for a -0.6 wins.

Long story short if you want to make the argument for using him at DH have at it but it's incredibly foolish in my opinion. As I have repeatedly stated, if he really enjoys hitting he should go to an NL team. If you have a pitcher who hits .230/.300/.400 you're thrilled. If you have a DH do that you're looking for a new DH.

 

[DanTown]

I still think the Cubs (or any team) would get more value out of letting him play in the OF on his side day and then having him pitch every sixth day than some team saying he's an everyday player who either pitches or hits. Considering the uptick in innings played a year, the amount of travel, the stress of being Otani, I can't imagine he wants to play everyday.

 

[CSF77]

Honestly this circus show needs to be put to bed. It is stalling the off season.

 

[beckdawg]

I don't remember where I read it but something I was reading brought up an interesting point about the cubs and a potential pitch to Ohtani. As a young pitcher the obvious worry is injury. And considering he spent a lot of time last year out you have to imagine that is something that while not a top priority will be something on his mind. The cubs as an organization over the past several years have been one of the healthier teams. A lot of that likely has to do with Maddon's approach of pulling off the accelerator a bit.

But kind of in tandem with what dan was saying that is a pretty interesting pitch I think though less about him necessarily playing the field. The cubs as a team are committed to that idea of Monty as a 6th starter to spot start. And Japanesse pitchers often have some bit of trouble adjusting to the different rotation. You could effectively carry two long guys in Monty and someone like him to give you spot starts from the bullpen and keep Ohtani fresh as needed. He's only ever thrown a max of 160.2 innings. If he were to do that in the majors you'd need ~10 starts out of Monty/whoever.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Honestly this circus show needs to be put to bed. It is stalling the off season.

I'm not sure the Ohtani sweepstakes is holding up much. Teams aren't making him a centerpiece of their plans because he's so cheap. Stanton, on the other hand, is holding everything up.

 

[beckdawg]

I'm not sure the Ohtani sweepstakes is holding up much. Teams aren't making him a centerpiece of their plans because he's so cheap. Stanton, on the other hand, is holding everything up.

That plus Ohtani isn't even posted yet. Word is it may happen friday.

 

[CSF77]

Kinda is. NYY has not filed their last SP slot. Jake, Yu, Cobb and Lynn are still FA. I’m thinking teams are holding out until Ohtani is resolved.

Stanton’s issue I believe affects STL LAD BOS right now. Not sure who else is in play.

 

[TC in Mississippi]

Kinda is. NYY has not filed their last SP slot. Jake, Yu, Cobb and Lynn are still FA. I’m thinking teams are holding out until Ohtani is resolved.

Stanton’s issue I believe affects STL LAD BOS right now. Not sure who else is in play.

The Giants are considered the frontrunners for Stanton as strange as that sounds, but his status is affecting other clubs through the domino effect. JD Martinez isn't going to sign when St. Louis, Boston and SF could all be landing spots if they don't get Stanton. If Stanton refuses a trade, as reported yesterday, Miami is going to sell off everything else putting Gordon, Ozuna and Yelich in play. I don't see anyone really counting on Ohtani because his market is too unpredictable. He doesn't really cost anything except for a minor league deal and the posting fee. You certainly won't base your season on him. The Yankees are still going to sign someone from the Cobb, Lynn, Chatwood group as a #4 so teh only real difference is whether Chad Green is a starter or a reliever. You're certainly not going to count on Ohtani being a TOR in his first season if you're a contender.

 

[chibears55]

According to Kaplan, his source tells him the cubs are offering Otani the opportunity to both pitch and play OF full time...

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[beckdawg]

According to Kaplan, his source tells him the cubs are offering Otani the opportunity to both pitch and play OF full time...

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According to Kaplan the cubs were trading Heyward to SF.

 

[chibears55]

According to Kaplan the cubs were trading Heyward to SF.

Lol

http://www.bleachernation.com/2017/...i-could-pitch-and-play-the-outfield-for-them/
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[beckdawg]

According to Kaplan, his source tells him the cubs are offering Otani the opportunity to both pitch and play OF full time...

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In all seriousness, the report didn't say "full time"

MLB sources have confirmed to me that the Cubs have spent significant time and money in their pursuit of Ohtani. The club has sent multiple scouts to Japan for weeks at a time and they have watched him pitch and play the outfield and they believe he can indeed do both on the north side of Chicago.

Think that's an important distinction because if you're just saying a guy who could play occasionally in a corner then fine but that's different than him playing full time. My takeaway there was that the idea of giving him 1 game a week in the OF isn't that crazy not that he's going to routinely play there when he doesn't pitch if he were to come to the cubs.

 

[chibears55]

In all seriousness, the report didn't say "full time"



Think that's an important distinction because if you're just saying a guy who could play occasionally in a corner then fine but that's different than him playing full time. My takeaway there was that the idea of giving him 1 game a week in the OF isn't that crazy not that he's going to routinely play there when he doesn't pitch if he were to come to the cubs.

Pitching 1 game and starting in OF 1 game isnt exactly saying their willing to let him play either..

Why i think it more of them willing to pitch and play OF..

I can see

SP OF OF OF off SP
Or
SP off OF OF off SP

I can also see them letting him stay in game in OF after taken off mound..

Every NL team can offer him pitching and starting in OF once every 5 games..
I think what their saying is cubs are letting him know they'll be ok with him stsrting in OF either 2 or 3 games between starts..

Cubs really want him they need to offer him what he wants and that to allow him to play both positions regularly..
And i believe that what their saying tge cubs are offering

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[beckdawg]

Pitching 1 game and starting in OF 1 game isnt exactly saying their willing to let him play either..

Why i think it more of them willing to pitch and play OF..

I can see

SP OF OF OF off SP
Or
SP off OF OF off SP

I can also see them letting him stay in game in OF after taken off mound..

Every NL team can offer him pitching and starting in OF once every 5 games..
I think what their saying is cubs are letting him know they'll be ok with him stsrting in OF either 2 or 3 games between starts..

Cubs really want him they need to offer him what he wants and that to allow him to play both positions regularly..
And i believe that what their saying tge cubs are offering

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He isn't saying anything about what they are offering. He's saying what scouts believe Ohtani can do.

 

[chibears55]

He isn't saying anything about what they are offering. He's saying what scouts believe Ohtani can do.

I first heard it on the radio, and they made it sound like that what the "cubs" were going to offer him..
That opportunity to do both, pitch and play OF when he not pitching..

I found that article after youre first post on it and didn't really read it..

Upon reading it now, youre right it does just say the scouts feel he can play OF..

That said...

I still stand by what i think and hope that what Theo going to offer him though..

A legit opportunity to play OF more times then not, otherwise in that part if trying to woo him..
Theyll just be like any other NL team trying to get him offering him just to pitch and occasionally get some ABs..

They have to at least try to compete with what an AL team will offer with letting him DH by telling him theyll be good with him playing OF a couple times between starts...


I guess we'll see in the next week or two


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[CSF77]

What this report doesn't say is who gets bumped in the OF. I take it as the OF is Schwarber/Almora/Heyward. Almora gets bumped when Ohtani comes in to RF and Heyward goes to CF.

IDK this feel sooooo hokey to be honest. Let me put it this way: I would not trade Schwarber then just flat out give Ohtani LF on his off pitching days. That feels over the top and promotes a injury. Then losing Schwarber who might break out in his 2nd full season.

Then Almora who looked vastly improved last year where you would want to challenge him more vs restrict.

Again it feels like a pushed situation vs a realistic one.

Then Heyward...ya no trade...

 

[CSF77]

What they really need is a full time lead off. I wouldn't go into the season with Ohtani on the brain because he is a distraction to what the Cubs really need.

Lead off.
Closer
Stabilizing the pen in general.

then upgrading Montgomery and Butler. It is not like we are sitting here saying there is no 4-5 starter. There is a 4-5 starter. We are talking improving that situation.

Now there are a few ways of addressing this:

Sign 2 SP. This pushes Butler and Montgomery into MR. Then you are sitting with Strop, Edwards, Wilson in the pen. At that point you would want to ink a closer and hope Edwards and Wilson bounce back.

Easy enough. After that you need a full time lead off. Lets face it Happ is unproven at that role and pushed out a 32% SO rate. BB were at 9.4% He should get his SO's down to 25% but that really is not ideal lead off numbers. Zobrist ran a 14% SO and 10% BB and to be honest those are beautiful %'s but again he is getting old and injury prone. Not a every day solution. That is why Jed said not in org.

I'm really starting to like Almora as a every day guy but 5.9% BB is a red flag there. 16.4% SO is again beautiful but his BB rate is about half that you would want out of a lead off.

So looking at the big picture lead off has to come from the outside.

I is kinda the situation right now. I personally would sign Cobb and a closer(Anderson). Run Butler as the 5 while pushing Montgomery into long relief and keep Maples on the team to gain MLB innings. After that target a lead off in a trade.

Ya I get it no TOR target. Well next year is going to be better there. This year is lacking. Add to it we will be a year closer to the next wave of pitching. As far as Butler is concerned he is good for 5 innings per start and honestly did not suck over those 5 innings. AAA depth should be good if/when needed. Tseng in AAA and Alzolay at AA. There is nothing wrong with letting the system develop the next wave of pitching.

I'm kinda thinking that Lester will bounce back and Hendricks will continue his 2nd half. Q was very solid. So Cobb ends up a 4 and Butler the 5.

Post ASG:
Lester 8-2 4.46 ERA
Hendricks: 3-2 2.19 ERA
Q: 7-3 3.74 ERA
Cobb: 5-4 3.52 ERA

They didn't suck. I believe that you have to stabilize the pen. Maybe piggy back Butler and Montgomery and give the pen a off day.

So honestly I still believe the biggest need is a every day lead off.

 

[beckdawg]

I still stand by what i think and hope that what Theo going to offer him though..

I don't see how they can offer him that. Like if you want to say Ohtani is your 5th OF and give him that as a guarantee I can believe that. But I honestly see 0 way the cubs can offer him 2-3 starts a week in the outfield. If you're saying they don't get him because they can't offer that ok but I see no way they can offer it. Why? Because you're paying Heyward $29 mil next year and he's easily the best defensive RF in baseball. So, unless he's 2016 bad as a hitter you're not going to sit him. I doubt Ohtani can play CF. He played RF in japan so you're not sitting Almora/Happ/whomever platoons with Almora. That leaves LF only.

And the simple reality of the situation is you'd have to deal both Schwarber and Happ to make him playing close to full time happen. Dealing Schwarber likely wouldn't even getting you a #3 starter right now. It would be selling incredibly low. And the front office has already talked about his leadership qualities that they like. So frankly I just don't buy that. And even if you found some deal that worked for the cubs to deal both, why would you as a WS contending team risk playing a guy full time with 1200 career pro pa's and none of them vs MLB pitching? LF is a big time area where teams get run creation from. There's 0 guarantee he'll actually hit MLB pitching.

In essence, what I think the cubs will offer him is the chance to be their #5 OFer. Maddon will love this because it likely means he can carry 8 relievers like he likes and potentially 3 catchers which he also likes(3 c/4 OF + ohtani/5 INF). If you assume the OF is basically Schwarber, Heyward and Almora most days with Happ moving around between 2B/CF/LF that then allows you to use Almora basically full time in CF but with Heyward and Happ behind him. Happ and Schwarber are sorta garbage in RF so you would likely play Ohtani there when Heyward is in CF/sitting. You might also consider giving him starts in LF when Schwarber sits vs LHP though I imagine Happ takes most of those games. You could essentially call his role something similar to what Almora played though likely slightly smaller in 2017. Almora would then take most of the opps Jay had and maybe slightly more.

The reason something like that works better is simple. As a manager, Maddon would control how much strain you put on him. If you're worried about him being over worked you also have the option of playing Contreras in LF and getting a back up C more time. And let's be real here... is this not something maddon would love screwing with? Between just PH and bats as a pitcher Ohtani likely can get 110 PAs assuming a full healthy season. La Stella as a full time bench player blocked by essentially 3 guys(zobrist happ baez) got 100 PAs from starts and about 50 from PH. So, getting some where in the neighborhood of 200-250 PAs for Ohtani wouldn't be that difficult if he's deserving. And effectively if you're suggesting he hits 4 times a week as a "starter"(1 as a pitcher 3 as a position player/DH) that's likely ~400 PAs(600 PAs * 66%(4 out of 6 games a week)). I think him actually playing that much would be a stretch but if you only had him starting twice a week as a positional player/DH getting roughly 300 PAs is essentially the ball park we're talking about here.