Players worthy of the #3 pick.

[WindyCity]

You make it sound like you know this for sure. Is there something you'd like to tell us??

No different than you saying it will cost us a 1st. Is there something you would like to tell us?

The 3rd pick will not be traded for Jimmy G there have been no top 10 picks traded for players in the last decade.

 

[bearmick]

I'm thinking the Browns do the Jimmy deal. If it turns into a bidding war of high 2nd round picks plus a high 2018 pick that could conditionally be a 1st, they can blow the whole deal open by giving the 12th pick and still getting Garrett at #1.

Then I would expect Shanahan to draft Trubisky, which would leave Pace with the option of either taking a swing on Watson/Kizer, or taking Allen/Hooker/Adams and hoping there's a QB later he likes (yuck) because they most likely aren't going to be there at 36.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

I'm thinking the Browns do the Jimmy deal. If it turns into a bidding war of high 2nd round picks plus a high 2018 pick that could conditionally be a 1st, they can blow the whole deal open by giving the 12th pick and still getting Garrett at #1.

Then I would expect Shanahan to draft Trubisky, which would leave Pace with the option of either taking a swing on Watson/Kizer, or taking Allen/Hooker/Adams and hoping there's a QB later he likes (yuck) because they most likely aren't going to be there at 36.

Do you think they do the Jimmy deal on draft day, or leading up to it? Normally, I would think it would happen before the draft. But the thing is, right now, NE might not trade Jimmy for 12, but once they see Cle, SF and Chi make actual selections, then the price drops. But at the same time, if the Bears see that Jimmy is still up for grabs, they might draft a non QB at 3 thinking they can get Jimmy for less. It's an interesting situation.

Maybe I am overthinking it.

 

[PaytonHighstep]

Do you think they do the Jimmy deal on draft day, or leading up to it? Normally, I would think it would happen before the draft. But the thing is, right now, NE might not trade Jimmy for 12, but once they see Cle, SF and Chi make actual selections, then the price drops. But at the same time, if the Bears see that Jimmy is still up for grabs, they might draft a non QB at 3 thinking they can get Jimmy for less. It's an interesting situation.

Maybe I am overthinking it.

I don't believe you're overthinking it at all. There is value in waiting until draft day (potentially less compensation given up for JG) and you never know if Garrett "falls" to #3. If you trade before the draft you have no shot at Garrett if #3 is part of the JG trade. Hell, I might be overthinking it now...

I'm not really sold on any of the QB options at the moment, so I'd be ok with many of the different options that could play out. The Bears are in this position, simply because they've avoided drafting a competent QB for the last decade.

 

[bearmick]

But what if that QB that fell were Watson or Kizer?

Yeah, of course. I highly doubt they will though, and certainly wouldn't risk missing out on them for the sake of getting a defender.

 

[bearmick]

Do you think they do the Jimmy deal on draft day, or leading up to it?

I have no idea.

 

[Mjiton]

My take:
First off take the bad QB class argument & 86 it.
Take the Watson hype & 86 it.

The Bears need to rely on their own scouts & film study.
I personally could pass on nearly any position of need over a BPA except QB. There is no comparison here. You need a good QB or you need the entire 85' Bears defense.

Evaluating the QBs honestly. Take into account things like what other players that QB had to work with like Watson also has the best WR on the board in Williams.

Then ask yourself does he have a future. Would he be better than Cutler a 15-17 range QB who once in awhile plays at 13th or 22nd range.

Realize the Bears haven't picked at #3 since I've been alive. And this is the time to take a swing, reach or no reach.

If all your study says none of those QBs are worth a reach or better than what you already have. Go BPA at another position.

 

[remydat]

Most QBs are overdrafted if you're looking strictly at BPA rankings. QBs really should be viewed separately from the BPA board because of the importance and value of the position.

It's amazing how people still don't grasp this concept. If I had to rank the positions in order of importance it would be something like this.

1. QB
2. QB
3. QB.
4. Pass rushers
5. Pass blocking LT
6. Shutdown CB
7. Linebacks and Safeties with elite Coverage Skills
8. Pass catchers
9. Other OL
10. Defensive players with run stopping skills
11. Running backs.
12. Kickers/Specialists

There is probably some debate over 7-10 but by in large I would say 1-6 are pretty much standard. If there was an elite pass rusher, LT, or CB then maybe I consider taking them at 3. So a guy like Garrett. But passing on a QB to take a Jonathan Allen or a S seems like a waste of a prime pick. Not because those guys aren't good players but they simply don't play premium positions.

Like people slobber over Hooker/Adams but watch the Super Bowl. An elite FS can be completely taken out of the game by a QB like Tom Brady because Tom Brady rarely goes deep. On 95% of the passing snaps, an elite FS playing CF isn't going to have an impact on the play because 95% of Brady's passes are intermediate to short routes. And a guy like Jonathan Allen that doesn't project to be an elite passing rushing 5T or 3T is going to have his run stopping skills neutralized by a team like the Pats who don't really run the ball all that much.

So I simply wouldn't waste a prime draft pick on a position that ultimately has lesser value. Teams pass more than run this days so the top 5 picks should be spent on guys that throw the ball, protect the dude throwing the ball, sack the dude throwing the ball, or break up passes in the intermediate to short area of the field. There are always exceptions to that rule here and there but I don't see any in this draft.

 

[dabears70]

No different than you saying it will cost us a 1st. Is there something you would like to tell us?

The 3rd pick will not be traded for Jimmy G there have been no top 10 picks traded for players in the last decade.

I was just asking.....geesh. I'm just not convinced that they won't get a 1st round pick for him but i guess you are.

 

[dabears70]

I don't believe you're overthinking it at all. There is value in waiting until draft day (potentially less compensation given up for JG) and you never know if Garrett "falls" to #3. If you trade before the draft you have no shot at Garrett if #3 is part of the JG trade. Hell, I might be overthinking it now...

I'm not really sold on any of the QB options at the moment, so I'd be ok with many of the different options that could play out. The Bears are in this position, simply because they've avoided drafting a competent QB for the last decade.

This kinda makes waiting until next years draft to get our franchise QB more interesting with this draft class being so questionable and even the free agent QB's all having serious questions. I wouldn't be mad if we took a QB in the mid rounds hoping to get lucky and drafting a QB in the first round in 2018 if we don't get lucky.

 

[bearmick]

[/B]


This kinda makes waiting until next years draft to get our franchise QB more interesting with this draft class being so questionable and even the free agent QB's all having serious questions. I wouldn't be mad if we took a QB in the mid rounds hoping to get lucky and drafting a QB in the first round in 2018 if we don't get lucky.

They have a ton of money to invest in FA and it's very unlikely they'll have the insane number of injuries again they did this year. More than likely this team will be closer to .500 next year than top 3 overall. If there are any QBs considered more "safe" or NFL ready next year, they will be off the board in the few couple of picks.

I'm not sure the idea of hoping there's more talent there at 14 or 17 next year than there is at #3 this year is a very good idea. If Pace feels any of these guys are franchise talents, I hope he pulls the trigger now.

I'm not really sold on any of the QB options at the moment, so I'd be ok with many of the different options that could play out. The Bears are in this position, simply because they've avoided drafting a competent QB for the last decade.

Continuing to neglect the position because the perfect prospect isn't there is not the way to fix that. Unless you're picking 1st overall the next time a Manning or Luck comes out, all QBs will have flaws. At some point you have to swing the bat.

 

[mattb78]

We are overvaluing the #3 pick this year. Fans need to face the facts that the Bears are 1 pick away from drafting the best QB or the best defensive player.

Watson and Kizer are incredibly flawed prospects. Watson, while I love him as a player, is horribly overrated because he threw tunnel screens in a great offense. His 3% INT rate is incredibly high, especially for a senior. He simply doesn't have the repeatable accuracy necessary at the pro level.

Its Trubisky as the best QB, and a large drop off to the rest. Draft is looking like Allen at #3 or a trade down to one of the teams in love with Fournette or Cook.

 

[PaytonHighstep]

They have a ton of money to invest in FA and it's very unlikely they'll have the insane number of injuries again they did this year. More than likely this team will be closer to .500 next year than top 3 overall. If there are any QBs considered more "safe" or NFL ready next year, they will be off the board in the few couple of picks.

I'm not sure the idea of hoping there's more talent there at 14 or 17 next year than there is at #3 this year is a very good idea. If Pace feels any of these guys are franchise talents, I hope he pulls the trigger now.



Continuing to neglect the position because the perfect prospect isn't there is not the way to fix that. Unless you're picking 1st overall the next time a Manning or Luck comes out, all QBs will have flaws. At some point you have to swing the bat.

My comment, stating I'd be ok with the many different options was referring to the QB options, since I'm not sold on any of them. I agree. The Bears need to draft a QB. I never said neglect the position anywhere in my post and I think my post was critical that they've ignored it for a decade.

 

[didshereallysaythat]

We are overvaluing the #3 pick this year. Fans need to face the facts that the Bears are 1 pick away from drafting the best QB or the best defensive player.

Watson and Kizer are incredibly flawed prospects. Watson, while I love him as a player, is horribly overrated because he threw tunnel screens in a great offense. His 3% INT rate is incredibly high, especially for a senior. He simply doesn't have the repeatable accuracy necessary at the pro level.

Its Trubisky as the best QB, and a large drop off to the rest. Draft is looking like Allen at #3 or a trade down to one of the teams in love with Fournette or Cook.

How many tunnel screens did Watson throw on the last drive to beat Alabama?

 

[WindyCity]

AFC GM

—Where does the second quarterback come off the board? I asked a general manager from the AFC that this week: "I have to think Chicago goes quarterback at [pick] three. Looking at that roster and knowing Ryan Pace, quarterback fits there."

 

[WindyCity]

How many tunnel screens did Watson throw on the last drive to beat Alabama?

He actually only throws a slightly higher percentage of screens than the other top guys.

 

[dabears70]

They have a ton of money to invest in FA and it's very unlikely they'll have the insane number of injuries again they did this year. More than likely this team will be closer to .500 next year than top 3 overall. If there are any QBs considered more "safe" or NFL ready next year, they will be off the board in the few couple of picks.

I'm not sure the idea of hoping there's more talent there at 14 or 17 next year than there is at #3 this year is a very good idea. If Pace feels any of these guys are franchise talents, I hope he pulls the trigger now.



Continuing to neglect the position because the perfect prospect isn't there is not the way to fix that. Unless you're picking 1st overall the next time a Manning or Luck comes out, all QBs will have flaws. At some point you have to swing the bat.

Well of course there's no guarantees with any QB's in any draft but as i've been saying all along, if there's not a QB that Pace sees as a franchise QB then there's no reason to take a chance on one early when we could be drafting a day one starter at a position of need with that early pick. I also think we'll be around a .500 team next year and that we'll be picking somewhere around the mid of the draft but a franchise QB is worth trading a boatload of picks to get up in the top 5 or 3 to get and there's bound to be at least one team in the top 5 that already has their franchise QB and would trade down for the right return. I don't want a QB that we can win some games with like a A.Dalton or A.Smith but can't get wins in the playoffs with, i want a QB that has what it takes to get us to a super bowl.

 

[WindyCity]

Mitch Trubisky
Deshaun Watson

Those will be the players we decide on.

I would rather risk the 3rd pick on Trubisky or Watson than risk 1(15), 2(47), 3(79), 1(2019), 2(2019) on a QB next year.

Miss on that like the Rams may have on Goff and your franchise is done.

 

[dabears70]

Mitch Trubisky
Deshaun Watson

Those will be the players we decide on.

I would rather risk the 3rd pick on Trubisky or Watson than risk 1(15), 2(47), 3(79), 1(2019), 2(2019) on a QB next year.

Miss on that like the Rams may have on Goff and your franchise is done.

I feel you on this but all the talk is about next years class being really good and i know we hear shit like that all the time but if there's a QB that Pace and his team feel is that almost can't miss franchise QB then it's worth giving up a load for cause we all know how important the QB is to a team. I'd hate to give up that much though.

I can't wait for the combine to get here and we can see what these kids do and how they interview to see if all the bad talk about this class changes at all cause with all the talk about these QB's now you gotta be scared to use a early pick on one and he ends up a bust.

 

[WindyCity]

I feel you on this but all the talk is about next years class being really good and i know we hear shit like that all the time but if there's a QB that Pace and his team feel is that almost can't miss franchise QB then it's worth giving up a load for cause we all know how important the QB is to a team. I'd hate to give up that much though.

I can't wait for the combine to get here and we can see what these kids do and how they interview to see if all the bad talk about this class changes at all cause with all the talk about these QB's now you gotta be scared to use a early pick on one and he ends up a bust.

That is all assuming that someone in the top 5 wants to trade.

That is also assuming all those guys declare.

That is also assuming that they don't get picked apart like Watson.


Too many assumptions to not make the move this season.