Poles Teardown Okay, Buildup not so sure

[RiDLer80]

The guys listed in the OP are all stop-gap players to fill a roster on 1-2 year deals for little money.

His real buildup pieces were trading a second for Claypool-- I don't see how we give away a second and Claypool isn't a building block piece, as well as his first draft.

I will say that I disagree with his first draft strategy of taking two DBs early and not helping the offense/Fields. We've seen how that's negatively impacted Fields development.

 

[brundleflyguy]

I will say that I disagree with his first draft strategy of taking two DBs early and not helping the offense/Fields. We've seen how that's negatively impacted Fields development.

I agree. This was an epic failure. Wasting a year of Fields' development, potentially making him gunshy/injuring him permanently, and wasting a year of the his rookie contract cost. Incredibly stupid. Does he redeem himself this draft/off season? I hope so, but I'm not convinced.

 

[Nelly]

The only "buildup" guys Poles has on the roster right now are guys he drafted or traded a pick for (Claypool). Everyone else signed to a 1-2 year deal is a roster filler. So guys like Patrick, Reiff and Muhammad aren't key pieces to a rebuild, they're just roleplayers at best.

This offseason is when the ball gets rolling. I'm expecting a couple big free agent signings at minimum along with plenty of other solid guys to fill out roster spots, then potential some big draft day moves depending on just how high our pick ends up being. That's the "buildup."

 

[Tillman33]

Poles worked under Pioli, Dorsey and Veach.
How is he tied to DeCosta?

I saw a video that the Chicago Bears YouTube channel dropped where Poles and one of his coaches are in a car and doing some kind of interview before they make a trip to some school to evaluate prospects. In that interview he said something along the lines of “I align very closely with Eric DeCosta, we have the same philosophy for the game” (paraphrasing but it was something along those lines)

Let me see if I can find the video

 

[2MuchChino]

I keep sayin it, this rebuild is going to take longer than most people are expecting. Even with high draft picks and the most $ in FA, bears have so many holes to fill, even if Poles hit on his top picks in the coming draft and was able to get 3 above avg starters in free agency, this team maybe wins 2 more games next year which is probably a 6 win team at best.

Then add another 3-5 starters the next off season and you’re now maybe a .500 team.

I think people are expecting this team to be in the playoffs in 2 more seasons. Not happening.

If you would have said no to a super bowl in 2 seasons, then yea probably not, but playoffs in 2 seasons? Very doable given their resources.

 

[Tillman33]

I saw a video that the Chicago Bears YouTube channel dropped where Poles and one of his coaches are in a car and doing some kind of interview before they make a trip to some school to evaluate prospects. In that interview he said something along the lines of “I align very closely with Eric DeCosta, we have the same philosophy for the game” (paraphrasing but it was something along those lines)

Let me see if I can find the video

@4 min and 55 seconds he talks about DeCosta. I think my paraphrase was a bit exaggerated but they have a relationship and in poles view “see some things similarly philosophically”

 

[Spitta Andretti]

I agree. This was an epic failure. Wasting a year of Fields' development, potentially making him gunshy/injuring him permanently, and wasting a year of the his rookie contract cost. Incredibly stupid. Does he redeem himself this draft/off season? I hope so, but I'm not convinced.

how is a season where Fields showed progress because of the coaches put in place after Nagy, a failure?

shitty takes

 

[playthrough2001]

I saw a video that the Chicago Bears YouTube channel dropped where Poles and one of his coaches are in a car and doing some kind of interview before they make a trip to some school to evaluate prospects. In that interview he said something along the lines of “I align very closely with Eric DeCosta, we have the same philosophy for the game” (paraphrasing but it was something along those lines)

Let me see if I can find the video

Thanks, that's interesting.

 

[Bear_Assed]

If you would have said no to a super bowl in 2 seasons, then yea probably not, but playoffs in 2 seasons? Very doable given their resources.

You are missing the point. Just because the bears have $120 mil in cap space this offseason doesn’t mean he’s going to use it.

Poles said he is building thru the draft. Not signing a bunch of top tier vets that are looking for lengthy contracts with max guaranteed money.

He is going to basically do what the cubs did. Tank for a few years, trading off all of their good vets and acquiring new, young talent thru the draft.

People are so used to pace who tried to win as quickly as possible instead of establishing a foundation of good young talent to build around.

It’s going to be a shit show around here when all the top free agent talent is signed in the offseason and poles only got a couple of them. I’m trying to prepare people for this but y’all ain’t listening. So be it. Best of luck to you

 

[bufordht]

You are missing the point. Just because the bears have $120 mil in cap space this offseason doesn’t mean he’s going to use it.

Poles said he is building thru the draft. Not signing a bunch of top tier vets that are looking for lengthy contracts with max guaranteed money.

He is going to basically do what the cubs did. Tank for a few years, trading off all of their good vets and acquiring new, young talent thru the draft.

People are so used to pace who tried to win as quickly as possible instead of establishing a foundation of good young talent to build around.

It’s going to be a shit show around here when all the top free agent talent is signed in the offseason and poles only got a couple of them. I’m trying to prepare people for this but y’all ain’t listening. So be it. Best of luck to you

So it's been mentioned several times that there's a minimum they have to spend. Do you think they'll just say screw it and not spend the 89% minimum? They literally have to spend over 100 million...

 

[Bear_Assed]

So it's been mentioned several times that there's a minimum they have to spend. Do you think they'll just say screw it and not spend the 89% minimum? They literally have to spend over 100 million...

From my understanding it’s 89% over 4 years, so one year could be 70% and the others be 95%.

70% of 134 mil is 94 mil.

Bears will likely already have ~15 mil against cap so = 80 mil

 

[Myrradah]

Sane people would argue the “build up” hasn’t begun yet but with those five, high money earning studs you’ve listed above you may be right.

Eh, rebuild hasnt really started except for the two trades so far for WR harry and Claypool.

Next year it will START - not finish.
The players you mentioned above are not long term deals. you have to fill positions with players and play.

 

[remydat]

From my understanding it’s 89% over 4 years, so one year could be 70% and the others be 95%.

70% of 134 mil is 94 mil.

Bears will likely already have ~15 mil against cap so = 80 mil

That is not how it works. The 89% is cash spent and is of total cap not just cap available. The current window is 2021-2024. The Bears are currently behind from a cap spend perspective because much of their cap this year is dead money spent in previous years. They only had like 105m in cash spend againt 208m cap so just over half. Last year it was 185m against 182.5 cap so over 100%. Overal they are around 71% of cap spent thus far so will need to ramp up the cash spent the last 2 years.

Doing quick math they need to spend 455m over next 2 years based in 218.2 ans 228.2 caps next 2 years. They currently only have 105m in cash spend currently for 2023 and 2024. So need to add 350m in cash spend the next 2 years. Cash spend includes full signing bonus in year it was paid.

 

[napo55]

I disagree. The offense is going to be great next season with a couple of top notch offensive linemen at Tackle and Center and a TE and 2 WRS. It is the defense where the real work is ahead of them. They have the worst front seven in the NFL As I see it, the main weakness is at DT and DE. This is where I believe the number one draft pick and free agent money needs to be allocated.

Next year they will make the play-offs and will be super bowls contenders for the years after that. $130M dollars buys a lot of football talent. Of course, this is where we get to know if the GM and HC know their shit because they basically are crafting what kind of team that they want with little restrictions whatsoever.

The question is whether enough quality free agents will be available for Poles to "fill out" the roster. The best will, in most cases, be signed or franchised by their teams. So, after deconstructing the team, his strategy to rebuild is based on a very doubtful assumption.

 

[bufordht]

From my understanding it’s 89% over 4 years, so one year could be 70% and the others be 95%.

70% of 134 mil is 94 mil.

Bears will likely already have ~15 mil against cap so = 80 mil

Where did the 134m number come from? Also, how do you magically subtract 15m from your cap space?

Also, if they only spend 80m that easily adds 5 starters

 

[Bear_Assed]

That is not how it works. The 89% is cash spent and is of total cap not just cap available. The current window is 2021-2024. The Bears are currently behind from a cap spend perspective because much of their cap this year is dead money spent in previous years. They only had like 105m in cash spend againt 208m cap so just over half. Last year it was 185m against 182.5 cap so over 100%. Overal they are around 71% of cap spent thus far so will need to ramp up the cash spent the last 2 years.

Doing quick math they need to spend 455m over next 2 years based in 218.2 ans 228.2 caps next 2 years. They currently only have 105m in cash spend currently for 2023 and 2024. So need to add 350m in cash spend the next 2 years. Cash spend includes full signing bonus in year it was paid.

Ok thanks

 

[Thedude]

I love these thoughts provoking posts holyshit(that's sarcasm). If fields is the QB of the future and you build both lines this team can hit playoff contention as early as next year.

Offense

If kmet and fields have a real connection that's 2/11 with depth needed at TE.

At WR right now you got two #2s it's been done with worse we need someone else to take on a role here a slot WR perhaps ? I don't see Mooney being that patriots type of slot guy more of a mismatch or a #1 at some point in the draft ? 4/11

With Herbert/evans and a possible RB signing(resigning perhaps) or late draft pick you got that position covered. 5/11

Right now I see the only as having 3 starting caliber players. Jones/whitehair/Jenkins Jones either shows significant improvement in pass protection or gets moved to a different position along the line that he can thrive especially cuz of his run blocking... 8/11

So you need two linemen and a WR to really make this offense at worst top 15 I can't imagine it not being top 10 though if you find permanent fixes at center, tackle and WR.

Defense

I'll just start by saying right now you only have 1 position that could possibly be worthy of a starting spot on the dline but I might be generous with that statement.i see us signing at least two players in FA to try to fix this Dline. 1/11

You got 3 spots at linebacker but I believe you only really require two starters... Sanborn has shown he can handle the MLB position and the future is bright for him. Morrow is just a stopgap. I fully expect us to sign one of the many linebackers that could potentially hit FA. 2/11

Our corners have been avg, surprising considering the lack of pass rush. I'd keep vildor and Jaylon Johnson on the outside again. I wonder why vildor can't play nickel he has been one of our best run stopping CBs. Maybe Kyler Gordon balls next season who knows! 5/11 I'm a firm believer if we fix the dline this position will be more than capable.***

I believe with Eddie jackson showing his old self and brisker improving every game along with the whole lack of pass rush this position is filled might need a little better depth though. 7/11

7 positions to fill I see us filling 5 of those positions in FA. Two Dlinemen and linebacker for defense and offense at least 2 linemen hopefully a center and tackle. wr is a problem in FA there isn't a single wr id be willing to pay.


So you either draft one or wait til next year for WR. I think we look to draft one more OLinemen. In the draft you need to draft DT and DE while filling out depth with talent. I see us using a majority of our picks on defense and top heavy.

My prediction

FA
Defense splash signings
Sign 1 daron Payne/Hargraves(both with Anderson as our draft pick would be insane)

Sign 1 Huff(jets)/ngakoue

Sign 1 bobby okereke/Tremaine Edmunds/vander esch/Edwards

I'm projecting 45 million of cap space for defense

Offensive splash signings

Sign 1 Conklin/Mcglinchey/Brown

Sign 1 Elgton/pocic

Sign Meyers at a good price to fill the slot or resign cheap 1 year deals at WR.

I'm projecting 35mill of cap space for offense.

These numbers don't include draft/depth/1 year signings.

Draft

#2 Will Anderson

#56 siaki ika

#65 AT Perry

#98 kj Henry

I agree, great post!
I am not sold on Sanborn though but he dosnt have nfl talent around him currently either

 

[wazzupi]

I agree, great post!
I am not sold on Sanborn though but he dosnt have nfl talent around him currently either

He is a robin to a batman. batman being that elite WLB that you sign or draft.

 

[2MuchChino]

You are missing the point. Just because the bears have $120 mil in cap space this offseason doesn’t mean he’s going to use it.

Poles said he is building thru the draft. Not signing a bunch of top tier vets that are looking for lengthy contracts with max guaranteed money.

He is going to basically do what the cubs did. Tank for a few years, trading off all of their good vets and acquiring new, young talent thru the draft.

People are so used to pace who tried to win as quickly as possible instead of establishing a foundation of good young talent to build around.

It’s going to be a shit show around here when all the top free agent talent is signed in the offseason and poles only got a couple of them. I’m trying to prepare people for this but y’all ain’t listening. So be it. Best of luck to you

Even without being a kid in a candy store next year, the number of close (very winnable) games this year, should highlight how close the Bears (or any team really) are to a playoff berth. Adding 2 studs at DT/DL (FA or draft) and any upgrade at OL and WR turns several of the losses this year into wins. I think you're conflating playoff competitive with simply reaching the playoffs which is the bar you set.

I would also remind you Poles did go after a couple fairly high priced FA's this year but didn't get them. That would have contradicted your take on his plan right out of the gate.

 

[Bear_Assed]

Even without being a kid in a candy store next year, the number of close (very winnable) games this year, should highlight how close the Bears (or any team really) are to a playoff berth. Adding 2 studs at DT/DL (FA or draft) and any upgrade at OL and WR turns several of the losses this year into wins. I think you're conflating playoff competitive with simply reaching the playoffs which is the bar you set.

I would also remind you Poles did go after a couple fairly high priced FA's this year but didn't get them. That would have contradicted your take on his plan right out of the gate.

Yes he did go after some and only was able to get one to agree to his price. All others got better deals elsewhere. What’s your point here?

I agree poles will hopefully get a few studs this offseason. But people are predicting he goes crazy and signs a bunch of top tier players which isn’t happening. They are going to be looking for 4+ year deals which Poles likely wiling be giving out to more than maybe 2-3 players max.

People also need to realize that 2 of the 3 wins the bears have were very “lose-able” games, including one at home against the fucking Texans where they got a late int from a player that’s no longer on the team and needed a last second FG to win.