Predicting Ball Feeding for Bears Passing Offense

[WookieOnRitalin]

Just thought this might be an interesting thread. So I dug into some basic stats of Ben Johnson and Jared Goff to have a soft prediction of how ball distribution may work in 2025.

3 Year Averages
Average Attempts: 575
Average Receptions: 393
Average Comp %: 68%

2023 and 2024 Distribution
WR: 54/57%
TE: 25/19%
RB: 17/24%

WR1: 30%
TE1: 17.5%
WR2/3: 23%
RB1: 13%

* * * * *. * * * * * * *
Using the above information, we can do some general breaking down.

Let's assume that Caleb throws the average 575 attempts (+10 from last year). Let's assume he bumps from 62.5% to 66%.

This makes the total completions at 380. Using the above averages, we can predict the following distribution.

WR: 211 Receptions
TE: 84 Receptions
RB: 85 Receptions

Based on the distribution from Detroit.

WR1: 114 Receptions
TE1: 66 Receptions
WR2/3: 87 Receptions
RB1: 50 Receptions

Now with that said...our personnel is considerably different with the average skill of our wideouts being greater than Detroit's.

DJ Moore's six year average is 84 Receptions a year. Using that as a basis, we can subtract that from the WR1 and add back to WR 2/3 leaving 117 receptions. Based on this, we could add 20 receptions to Rome's total from 2024, then you are at 74 Receptions. Leaving 43 Receptions for Luther Burden III.

Tight end is also interesting. While a big fan of 12 personnel, Kmet and Loveland should have a more balanced distribution than Detroit. Let's assume 35 and 31 Receptions.

Ball Distribution Predictions
DJ: 84 Receptions
Rome: 74 Receptions
Swift: 50 Receptions
LB3: 43 Receptions
Kmet: 35 Receptions
Loveland: 31 Receptions

IIRC, Swift had 48 receptions with Johnson as his coordinator in 2022.

Things that could happen

• Less Distribution to WR2/3 and more distribution to TE. I imagine this could be +20.
• DJ could have less or perhaps more touches.
• Less touches for LB3 and redistributed to TE or WR1/2.

What do you think?

 

[DaBears3434]

Total receiving yards:

DJ: 1100
Rome: 900
Burden: 500
Loveland: 500
RBs: 500
Kmet: 350
Other: 150

 

[modo]

I think RBs will get less on the Bears

 

[msadows]

With all these weapons caleb will be setting the single season attempts record to make all the mouths happy.

 

[gallagher]

With all these weapons caleb will be setting the single season attempts record to make all the mouths happy.

Get your popcorn ready

 

[vabearsfan15]

Fun exercise! Your predictions make great sense. Going based off of your findings I'll say:

Ball Distribution Predictions
DJ: 89 Receptions (Since the seasons changed to 17 games in 2021, DJ has had 93+ receptions in 3 of the 4 years)
Rome: 71 Receptions
Swift: 51 Receptions
LB3: 34 Receptions
Kmet: 53 Receptions
Loveland: 22 Receptions

Total Receptions = 320
With Loveland coming off injury and being a rookie, I do not anticipate him beating out Kmet for targets. I do think Ben tries to feed Loveland a little bit, but ultimately he doesn't really design targets for the 2nd string TE. Luther Burden will have trouble getting downfield separation and Ben will force him the ball to him once or twice a game around the Line of Scrimmage.

 

[knoxville7]

I think RBs will get less on the Bears

Yep, rbs less catches…TE’s more catches. WR’s probably about the same

Also, I imagine @ILoveDick is disappointed about this thread after reading the title and getting very excited

 

[1COBearsfan]

I’ll be here for it

 

[remydat]

Moore - 90 receptions
Odunze - 70 receptions
Burden - 50 receptions
Loveland - 55 receptions
Kmet - 40 receptions
Swift - 45 receptions
Everyone else - 30 receptions

 

[gallagher]

Just from what I see...

Green Bay's defense struggles where Loveland will be a threat to get the ball. Expect the biggest games for Loveland to come against GB.

Minnesota is better at defending the middle but their CBs struggle one on one. Expect Burden to have his best games against Minny.

Detroit is good against routine plays but bites for fakes. With their disciplined DC gone, I don't expect them to take a step back. Play action is going to fill the highlight reel - expect Odunze and Moore to get big passes against Detroit.

For the rest of the season, it's going to be Moore and Odunze getting the bulk of the receiving work as outside receivers, and everyone else filling in where defensive formations favor them.

For distribution, 60% of the passing offense goes through Moore and Odunze. 30% goes through Kmet Loveland and Burden. The final 10% will be filtered through lesser options

 

[HeHateMe]

Moore - 80 receptions
Odunze -100 receptions
Burden - 65receptions
Loveland - 60 receptions
Kmet - 12 receptions
Swift - 20 receptions
Everyone else - 30 receptions

 

[Midway Fields]

Whatever the distribution is, I need it to add up to the elusive 4,000 passing yards, 30 passing tuddies for my sanity.

It’s an embarrassment of riches on paper. Again. This time with the best play caller in the NFL.

Midway Caleb is going to do it.