Predicting Ball Feeding for Bears Passing Offense

[WookieOnRitalin]

Just thought this might be an interesting thread. So I dug into some basic stats of Ben Johnson and Jared Goff to have a soft prediction of how ball distribution may work in 2025.

3 Year Averages
Average Attempts: 575
Average Receptions: 393
Average Comp %: 68%

2023 and 2024 Distribution
WR: 54/57%
TE: 25/19%
RB: 17/24%

WR1: 30%
TE1: 17.5%
WR2/3: 23%
RB1: 13%

* * * * *. * * * * * * *
Using the above information, we can do some general breaking down.

Let's assume that Caleb throws the average 575 attempts (+10 from last year). Let's assume he bumps from 62.5% to 66%.

This makes the total completions at 380. Using the above averages, we can predict the following distribution.

WR: 211 Receptions
TE: 84 Receptions
RB: 85 Receptions

Based on the distribution from Detroit.

WR1: 114 Receptions
TE1: 66 Receptions
WR2/3: 87 Receptions
RB1: 50 Receptions

Now with that said...our personnel is considerably different with the average skill of our wideouts being greater than Detroit's.

DJ Moore's six year average is 84 Receptions a year. Using that as a basis, we can subtract that from the WR1 and add back to WR 2/3 leaving 117 receptions. Based on this, we could add 20 receptions to Rome's total from 2024, then you are at 74 Receptions. Leaving 43 Receptions for Luther Burden III.

Tight end is also interesting. While a big fan of 12 personnel, Kmet and Loveland should have a more balanced distribution than Detroit. Let's assume 35 and 31 Receptions.

Ball Distribution Predictions
DJ: 84 Receptions
Rome: 74 Receptions
Swift: 50 Receptions
LB3: 43 Receptions
Kmet: 35 Receptions
Loveland: 31 Receptions

IIRC, Swift had 48 receptions with Johnson as his coordinator in 2022.

Things that could happen

• Less Distribution to WR2/3 and more distribution to TE. I imagine this could be +20.
• DJ could have less or perhaps more touches.
• Less touches for LB3 and redistributed to TE or WR1/2.

What do you think?

 

[DaBears3434]

Total receiving yards:

DJ: 1100
Rome: 900
Burden: 500
Loveland: 500
RBs: 500
Kmet: 350
Other: 150

 

[modo]

I think RBs will get less on the Bears

 

[msadows]

With all these weapons caleb will be setting the single season attempts record to make all the mouths happy.

 

[gallagher]

With all these weapons caleb will be setting the single season attempts record to make all the mouths happy.

Get your popcorn ready

 

[vabearsfan15]

Fun exercise! Your predictions make great sense. Going based off of your findings I'll say:

Ball Distribution Predictions
DJ: 89 Receptions (Since the seasons changed to 17 games in 2021, DJ has had 93+ receptions in 3 of the 4 years)
Rome: 71 Receptions
Swift: 51 Receptions
LB3: 34 Receptions
Kmet: 53 Receptions
Loveland: 22 Receptions

Total Receptions = 320
With Loveland coming off injury and being a rookie, I do not anticipate him beating out Kmet for targets. I do think Ben tries to feed Loveland a little bit, but ultimately he doesn't really design targets for the 2nd string TE. Luther Burden will have trouble getting downfield separation and Ben will force him the ball to him once or twice a game around the Line of Scrimmage.

 

[knoxville7]

I think RBs will get less on the Bears

Yep, rbs less catches…TE’s more catches. WR’s probably about the same

Also, I imagine @ILoveDick is disappointed about this thread after reading the title and getting very excited

 

[1COBearsfan]

I’ll be here for it

 

[remydat]

Moore - 90 receptions
Odunze - 70 receptions
Burden - 50 receptions
Loveland - 55 receptions
Kmet - 40 receptions
Swift - 45 receptions
Everyone else - 30 receptions

 

[gallagher]

Just from what I see...

Green Bay's defense struggles where Loveland will be a threat to get the ball. Expect the biggest games for Loveland to come against GB.

Minnesota is better at defending the middle but their CBs struggle one on one. Expect Burden to have his best games against Minny.

Detroit is good against routine plays but bites for fakes. With their disciplined DC gone, I don't expect them to take a step back. Play action is going to fill the highlight reel - expect Odunze and Moore to get big passes against Detroit.

For the rest of the season, it's going to be Moore and Odunze getting the bulk of the receiving work as outside receivers, and everyone else filling in where defensive formations favor them.

For distribution, 60% of the passing offense goes through Moore and Odunze. 30% goes through Kmet Loveland and Burden. The final 10% will be filtered through lesser options

 

[HeHateMe]

Moore - 80 receptions
Odunze -100 receptions
Burden - 65receptions
Loveland - 60 receptions
Kmet - 12 receptions
Swift - 20 receptions
Everyone else - 30 receptions

 

[Midway Fields]

Whatever the distribution is, I need it to add up to the elusive 4,000 passing yards, 30 passing tuddies for my sanity.

It’s an embarrassment of riches on paper. Again. This time with the best play caller in the NFL.

Midway Caleb is going to do it.

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

Whatever the distribution is, I need it to add up to the elusive 4,000 passing yards, 30 passing tuddies for my sanity.

It’s an embarrassment of riches on paper. Again. This time with the best play caller in the NFL.

Midway Caleb is going to do it.

On average this would place Caleb in the top 1/3 of NFL QBs. over the last 4 seasons in terms of Yards.

In terms of passing? 30+ TDs is elite over the last 3 seasons (13 times, average 4.33). I think you will see that there has been a corresponding increase in rushing TDs over that time. This is why a lot of fans wanted another RB in the stable. Defenses got faster and better to stop the pass, but got weaker up front exposing them more to the run. It's been an interesting pendulum swing and how teams are consistently having to revamp their rosters to beat their opponents.

If anyone would like to see, here is a brief insight into Rushing trend in the NFL over the last 5 years

1000+ Rushers - 10+ TDs (Under 1000/QB) - Percent Rushers 10+ TDs over 1000 yds

2024: 16-13 (3/2) - 77%
2023: 12-10 (2/2) - 80%
2022: 16-9 (2/1) - 78%
2021: 7-8 (3/1) - 63%
2020: 9-10 (5/1) - 50%

What you see is that a greater percentage of your main rushers are accumulating the highest percentage of 10+ TD rushers over the last seasons comparatively to previous two seasons. As we know, the decade prior was defined by the passing prowess of Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Big Ben, etc.

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

Year	1000+ Ru. Yards	10+ Ru. TDs	10+ TDs > 1000 Ru. Yards	# of QBs of 10+ TDs	10+ TD Percentage of 1000 Yard Rushers
2024	16	13	3	2	77%
2023	12	10	2	2	80%
2022	16	9	2	1	78%
2021	7	8	3	1	63%
2020	9	10	5	1	50%

For better visualization. Didn't realize I could make tables on CSS.

 

[Enasic]

Makes the Bears RB situation appear to be even worse

 

[WookieOnRitalin]

Makes the Bears RB situation appear to be even worse

You would not be wrong unless...

...the problem is OL related. We will not know until the season starts rolling. As we know, the Bears were 1st and 2nd in '22 and '23 respectively in rushing offense, but that was mostly associated with Fields. Until Johnson's offense is rolling, there is no way to know if RB is that bad.

I think we could use one more RB unless one of the other guys steps up. Johnson does not seem to have the speed so I would prefer another RB with more of it, but I can also wait for one more season to draft one.

 

[Enasic]

You would not be wrong unless...

...the problem is OL related. We will not know until the season starts rolling. As we know, the Bears were 1st and 2nd in '22 and '23 respectively in rushing offense, but that was mostly associated with Fields. Until Johnson's offense is rolling, there is no way to know if RB is that bad.

I think we could use one more RB unless one of the other guys steps up. Johnson does not seem to have the speed so I would prefer another RB with more of it, but I can also wait for one more season to draft one.

Swift barely cracked 1k yards playing behind one of the best OL in the league in Philly.

 

[Washington]

Makes the Bears RB situation appear to be even worse

I'm still disappointed Henderson was picked right before our pick. He would have been a good fit for what BJ needs.

 

[Enasic]

I'm still disappointed Henderson was picked right before our pick. He would have been a good fit for what BJ needs.

The universe did not want the bears to draft any of their top rated backs this year. I think they roll into camp with what they have, and then re-assess afterwards. They’ll definitely address it next off season.

 

[Aquineas]

I appreciate the work that's gone into this. It might be slightly optimistic based on the entire team's first year in the offense, but I'm hoping for the best. When everything is rolling the way it should, which should be the second half of the year, I believe the Bears are going to be a very troublesome team to defend because of the choices the defense will have to make.

Early on though if the Bears do the logical thing and go conservative- short passes to backs out of the backfield, screens, and short routes, then the offense will have a harder time of it because there will be lots of defenders crowding the line, daring you to throw on them. If on the other hand the Bears show the league early that they can and will go deep or at least throw behind safeties that are crowding the front-seven area, defenses will have to play much more disciplined.

This is why it's critical that CW be capable and happy with taking 10 yard completions, some of them over the middle, from the pocket. I am not convinced that he can do that just yet.