Nelly
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Just spitballing here. For a team that legit lands in the top 3 because they're terrible at the QB position, this doesn't really apply. You've already got a top pick so if there's a top QB prospect there for you, then by all means draft the guy. Still though, if you're taking a guy at the top of the draft, you're structuring all your other moves around that guy and him turning out (or not). The point here is that it seems to be the norm: draft a guy high, make him "the guy" and then ride or die. More often than not, if you include your top 10 QB pick turning out to be just "decent" or less (like I would) then it's "die."
For all the other starting QBs not included in the ones above, you've got (in draft pick order):
Cincinnati: Joe Burrow (#1 2020)
Arizona: Kyler Murray (#1 2019)
Cleveland: Baker Mayfield (#1 2018)
Detroit: Jared Goff (#1 2016)
New England: Cam Newton (#1 2011)
Los Angeles Rams: Matt Stafford (#1 2009)
Indianapolis: Carson Wentz (#2 2016)
Atlanta: Matt Ryan (#3 2008)
New York Jets: Sam Darnold (#3 2018)
Miami: Tua Tagovailoa (#5 2020)
New York Giants : Daniel Jones (#6 2019)
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert (#6 2020)
Buffalo: Josh Allen (#7 2018)
Tennessee: Ryan Tannehill (#8 2012)
Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes (#10 2017)
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger (#11 2004)
Houston: DeShaun Watson (#12 2017)
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers (#24 2005)
Carolina: Teddy Bridgewater (#32 2014)
Baltimore: Lamar Jackson (#32 2018)
Philadelphia: Jalen Hurts (2nd round 2020)
Chicago: Andy Dalton (2nd round 2011)
San Francisco: Jimmy Garappolo (2nd round 2014)
Las Vegas: Derek Carr (2nd round 2014)
Denver: Drew Lock (2nd round 2019)
Seattle: Russell Wilson (3rd round 2012)
Minnesota: Kirk Cousins (4th round 2012)
Dallas: Dak Prescott (4th round 2016)
Jacksonville: Gardner Minshew (6th round 2019)
Tampa: Tom Brady (6th round 2000)
Washington: Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th round 2005)
New Orleans: Taysom Hill (undrafted 2017)
For teams in our position or a similar one, is it worth giving up tons of picks to trade up for a QB that's far more likely to cap out at "replaceable" than he is to be a guy you're really comfortable having lead your team for the next 10 years? There's a lot of 1st round picks there but some of the high ones very well may be on the chopping block (Darnold, Jones, Goff) while others are solid (Mayfield, Tannehill). You can find just as many guys who were drafted toward the end of the 1st or later that turn out to be studs (Rodgers, Jackson, Wilson, Prescott, Brady) as you can find in or near the top 10 (Mahomes, Watson and some of the young guys maybe). You can find a whole lot of busts too. In the last 10 years, these guys were drafted in the 1st round: Dwayne Haskins, Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, RG3, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow.
Looking at this draft, it appears we'll be on the outside looking in at the top 5 QBs this time around. Looking at percentages, it's likely that only one of those guys ends up being a top 10 QB (if any) while the others become solid starters at best, complete busts at worst. Why would we do that? If QB is the all-important position then why do teams give up a shit load of assets and commit to one for four years only to most likely end up with a guy that's "fine" or worse.
I would think the better approach would be to constantly invest some lower picks in guys. So this year sitting at #20, maybe grab Mac Jones if you like him and he's there but don't trade up for him. Instead, spend a 2nd on Kyle Trask, then the next year, maybe spend a 2nd or a 3rd on another QB to add to the room. Or, if you like what you're seeing in Trask, wait a year and then spend a late 1st, 2nd or even a later round pick on a guy you like to add to the room. If Trask turns out to be Tom Brady then maybe you don't spend any more picks on QB, but if he's just Kirk Cousins, you keep spending a 2nd here, a 4th there, a 6th here. By the numbers, you're just as likely to end up in the same place most other teams are (having a QB that's decent) while also spending more rounds on fliers that could really take your team to the next level, as is what happened with instances like Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and others. Of course you're going to have plenty of David Fales' in there as well but the point remains.
So yea, I guess "Kyle Trask for 2nd round pick fugyea!"
For all the other starting QBs not included in the ones above, you've got (in draft pick order):
Cincinnati: Joe Burrow (#1 2020)
Arizona: Kyler Murray (#1 2019)
Cleveland: Baker Mayfield (#1 2018)
Detroit: Jared Goff (#1 2016)
New England: Cam Newton (#1 2011)
Los Angeles Rams: Matt Stafford (#1 2009)
Indianapolis: Carson Wentz (#2 2016)
Atlanta: Matt Ryan (#3 2008)
New York Jets: Sam Darnold (#3 2018)
Miami: Tua Tagovailoa (#5 2020)
New York Giants : Daniel Jones (#6 2019)
Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert (#6 2020)
Buffalo: Josh Allen (#7 2018)
Tennessee: Ryan Tannehill (#8 2012)
Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes (#10 2017)
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger (#11 2004)
Houston: DeShaun Watson (#12 2017)
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers (#24 2005)
Carolina: Teddy Bridgewater (#32 2014)
Baltimore: Lamar Jackson (#32 2018)
Philadelphia: Jalen Hurts (2nd round 2020)
Chicago: Andy Dalton (2nd round 2011)
San Francisco: Jimmy Garappolo (2nd round 2014)
Las Vegas: Derek Carr (2nd round 2014)
Denver: Drew Lock (2nd round 2019)
Seattle: Russell Wilson (3rd round 2012)
Minnesota: Kirk Cousins (4th round 2012)
Dallas: Dak Prescott (4th round 2016)
Jacksonville: Gardner Minshew (6th round 2019)
Tampa: Tom Brady (6th round 2000)
Washington: Ryan Fitzpatrick (7th round 2005)
New Orleans: Taysom Hill (undrafted 2017)
For teams in our position or a similar one, is it worth giving up tons of picks to trade up for a QB that's far more likely to cap out at "replaceable" than he is to be a guy you're really comfortable having lead your team for the next 10 years? There's a lot of 1st round picks there but some of the high ones very well may be on the chopping block (Darnold, Jones, Goff) while others are solid (Mayfield, Tannehill). You can find just as many guys who were drafted toward the end of the 1st or later that turn out to be studs (Rodgers, Jackson, Wilson, Prescott, Brady) as you can find in or near the top 10 (Mahomes, Watson and some of the young guys maybe). You can find a whole lot of busts too. In the last 10 years, these guys were drafted in the 1st round: Dwayne Haskins, Josh Rosen, Mitch Trubisky, Paxton Lynch, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, EJ Manuel, RG3, Brandon Weeden, Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, Sam Bradford and Tim Tebow.
Looking at this draft, it appears we'll be on the outside looking in at the top 5 QBs this time around. Looking at percentages, it's likely that only one of those guys ends up being a top 10 QB (if any) while the others become solid starters at best, complete busts at worst. Why would we do that? If QB is the all-important position then why do teams give up a shit load of assets and commit to one for four years only to most likely end up with a guy that's "fine" or worse.
I would think the better approach would be to constantly invest some lower picks in guys. So this year sitting at #20, maybe grab Mac Jones if you like him and he's there but don't trade up for him. Instead, spend a 2nd on Kyle Trask, then the next year, maybe spend a 2nd or a 3rd on another QB to add to the room. Or, if you like what you're seeing in Trask, wait a year and then spend a late 1st, 2nd or even a later round pick on a guy you like to add to the room. If Trask turns out to be Tom Brady then maybe you don't spend any more picks on QB, but if he's just Kirk Cousins, you keep spending a 2nd here, a 4th there, a 6th here. By the numbers, you're just as likely to end up in the same place most other teams are (having a QB that's decent) while also spending more rounds on fliers that could really take your team to the next level, as is what happened with instances like Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott and others. Of course you're going to have plenty of David Fales' in there as well but the point remains.
So yea, I guess "Kyle Trask for 2nd round pick fugyea!"
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