If they want to take the most talented teams, it will be Georgia, Michigan, Ohio St and Alabama. That also would produce the best ratings.
That said, TCU played a statistically harder schedule than Alabama and had one less loss. And their loss was in an extra game that Alabama was not good enough to play in their conference. So I could easily see TCU getting in over Alabama.
Last year, they intentionally avoided a rematch by making Alabama 1 and Georgia 3. They had Alabama leap 3 spots including Michigan who won to get to that top ranking. I wonder if they will avoid it this year by making Ohio St 4 and keeping Michigan at 2. They could easily just say that Ohio State did not play and does not deserve to go up 2 spots and ahead of TCU. But if it is Alabama that is chosen over TCU, then it has to be Ohio State 3 and Alabama 4 since they both did not play and Ohio State was already ahead of them.
Alabama is clearly better than TCU. But they have no one to blame but themselves if they don't get in because they lost 2 games and barely won 3 others against average teams. That is the part that people miss. If you are going to be impressed by Alabama's close losses, then you have to be unimpressed by their close wins. You can not have it both ways.